Australia's greenhouse gas emissions could return to 2005 levels by 2030 without new government action, contrary to the scenario modelled by the Finkel review, according to a new report by respected analyst Hugh Saddler.
Under Australia's Paris climate commitments, total emissions are to drop 26-28 per cent on 2005 by the end of the next decade, a pace the Chief Scientist Alan Finkel has modelled for the electricity sector in this review.
Another headache for Turnbull
Questions have been raised about Malcolm Turnbull's
leadership amid backbench angst over the Finkel report into energy
security and prices.
"In the absence of further policy action, Australia's total emissions will increase from the [2015 level] of 525.6 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent to between 571 and 616 million tonnes by 2030," Dr Saddler said in the first National Energy Emissions Audit report prepared for The Australia Institute.
Coal's role in the electricity mix points to an increase before a later drop, according to the Finkel review. Photo: Glen McCurtayne |
"The inescapable conclusion is that much – if not most – of the required emissions must come from electricity generation," Dr Saddler, an honorary associate professor at the Australian National University, said.
The Finkel review, though, only modelled a "par" reduction in emissions, tracking the overall 28 per cent drop pledged to 2030.
Dr Finkel forecast renewable energy to rise to a 42 per cent share of electricity by 2030 from about 17 per cent now. He also recommended such energy sources come with back-up "dispatchable" capacity to enable supply when the wind isn't blowing or the sun shining.
Chief Scientist Alan Finkel forecast renewable energy to rise to a 42 per cent share of electricity by 2030 from about 17 per cent now. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen |
"It's a very retrograde step," Dr Saddler said.
(See chart below of fossil fuel emissions trajectory in Australia since 2011.)
Fossil fuel emissions trajectory in Australia since 2011 Illustration: Supplied |
"We beat our first Kyoto target by 128 million tonnes and we're on track to meet and beat our 2020 target by 224 million tonnes," Josh Frydenberg, the environment and energy minister, said.
"We are on track to meet our 2030 target given the level of progress we have made to date and when you compare it to how these targets have been met in the past," he said.
Links
- How wind and solar will kill coal, sooner than Finkel suggests
- Finkel Review: What's in it for solar and storage customers like Jenny?
- Finkel drops ball on national energy savings scheme
- Finkel modelling ignores new technologies, cheaper renewables
- Know your NEM: Why Finkel's energy storage thought bubble needs bursting
- Five ways to improve Finkel's energy blueprint
No comments :
Post a Comment