The number of countries in which greenhouse gases has peaked continues to rise, representing a "critical turning point" in the task of curbing climate change, according to a report by the World Resources Institute.
While offering a "silver lining", the rate of national peaking won't be fast enough to prevent emissions reaching a zenith before 2030, assuming countries implement their Paris climate pledges, the Washington D.C.-based think-tank said.
Carbon dioxide levels surged in 2016
The amount of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere in 2016 hit a rate not seen for millions of years, the United Nations said.
Any backsliding by China and the US, the two biggest emitters
accounting for more than a third of the total, would also "significantly
compromise" the peak projections, it said.
Most of the early peakers were former Eastern Bloc nations, whose heavy industry sectors hammered in the run-up to the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Germany, France and the United Kingdom, though, had also seen their greenhouse gas pollution top out by that year.
Australia, thanks largely to a reduction in land clearing, has probably seen its emissions peak in 2006 at 610.2 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent.
While the most recent quarterly figures show Australia's pollution edging higher – up 1.2 per cent to 550.1 million tonnes of CO2-e in the year to March 2017 – government projections don't point to a new peak
By 2010, 49 nations had likely peaked emissions, a tally the WRI projects will reach 53 nations by 2020 and 57 by 2030. The share of pollution from those peaking nations was 36 per cent in 2010, rising to 40 per cent in 2020 and 60 per cent by 2030, the WRI estimates. (See chart below).
Frydenberg to attend Bonn event
The think-tank's report is among a flurry of studies released ahead of the Bonn climate conference that begins next week in Germany. The gathering will review progress towards the climate targets agreed on by almost 200 nations in Paris in late 2015.
Josh Frydenberg, federal Environment and Energy minister, will be the most senior Australian official at Bonn and plans to attend November 14-16, a spokeswoman said. The overall event runs from November 6-17.
US emissions are assumed by the WRI to have peaked in 2007 despite
current President Donald Trump's campaign promise to end "the war on
coal", and his promise to pull America out of the Paris agreement.
Steady Chinese emissions have been critical to a flat-lining in global emissions over the past three years. Even so, atmospheric CO2 levels jumped by a record rate last year, and China's growth of total greenhouse gases – including potent gases such as methane – may increase if the economy accelerates.
"The more we delay necessary reductions, the greater the need for rapid reductions in subsequent decades," the WRI said.
Any delay poses greater risks of economic disruption and more reliance on unproven technologies to achieve negative emissions. It would also raise risks of higher temperatures and associated greater adaptation costs, it said. (See below of different scenarios.)
Most of the early peakers were former Eastern Bloc nations, whose heavy industry sectors hammered in the run-up to the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. Germany, France and the United Kingdom, though, had also seen their greenhouse gas pollution top out by that year.
Australia, thanks largely to a reduction in land clearing, has probably seen its emissions peak in 2006 at 610.2 million tonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent.
While the most recent quarterly figures show Australia's pollution edging higher – up 1.2 per cent to 550.1 million tonnes of CO2-e in the year to March 2017 – government projections don't point to a new peak
By 2010, 49 nations had likely peaked emissions, a tally the WRI projects will reach 53 nations by 2020 and 57 by 2030. The share of pollution from those peaking nations was 36 per cent in 2010, rising to 40 per cent in 2020 and 60 per cent by 2030, the WRI estimates. (See chart below).
 |
The think-tank's report is among a flurry of studies released ahead of the Bonn climate conference that begins next week in Germany. The gathering will review progress towards the climate targets agreed on by almost 200 nations in Paris in late 2015.
Josh Frydenberg, federal Environment and Energy minister, will be the most senior Australian official at Bonn and plans to attend November 14-16, a spokeswoman said. The overall event runs from November 6-17.
 |
Steady Chinese emissions have been critical to a flat-lining in global emissions over the past three years. Even so, atmospheric CO2 levels jumped by a record rate last year, and China's growth of total greenhouse gases – including potent gases such as methane – may increase if the economy accelerates.
"The more we delay necessary reductions, the greater the need for rapid reductions in subsequent decades," the WRI said.
Any delay poses greater risks of economic disruption and more reliance on unproven technologies to achieve negative emissions. It would also raise risks of higher temperatures and associated greater adaptation costs, it said. (See below of different scenarios.)
Carbon price 'key'
A separate study by the International Finance Corp., part of the World Bank Group, estimated the Paris accord could create $US23 trillion in investment opportunities for 21 emerging economies alone by 2030.
Renewable energy investment, now worth $US297 billion a year, is expected to rise 37-fold to $US11 trillion by 2040, the IFC said. Most of that money will come from private investors.
One IFC project in Papua New Guinea, partly funded by Australia, had brought low-cost off-grid solar energy and storage to almost 20 per cent of the population in just a couple of years. The model could be replicated in the Pacific and elsewhere, Thomas Kerr, an author of the report, said.
"We see a huge potential," said Mr Kerr, adding nations could be encouraged to lift their Paris emissions-reduction goals if the huge supply of funds makes their targets more achievable as expected.
Carbon pricing – a policy rejected by the Abbott and Turnbull governments – is favoured by the IFC as an efficient method to promote the shift from fossil fuels to lower-carbon alternatives. "We think that it is just a key policy that countries should be putting in place to … level the playing field," Mr Kerr said.
A separate study by the International Finance Corp., part of the World Bank Group, estimated the Paris accord could create $US23 trillion in investment opportunities for 21 emerging economies alone by 2030.
Renewable energy investment, now worth $US297 billion a year, is expected to rise 37-fold to $US11 trillion by 2040, the IFC said. Most of that money will come from private investors.
One IFC project in Papua New Guinea, partly funded by Australia, had brought low-cost off-grid solar energy and storage to almost 20 per cent of the population in just a couple of years. The model could be replicated in the Pacific and elsewhere, Thomas Kerr, an author of the report, said.
"We see a huge potential," said Mr Kerr, adding nations could be encouraged to lift their Paris emissions-reduction goals if the huge supply of funds makes their targets more achievable as expected.
Carbon pricing – a policy rejected by the Abbott and Turnbull governments – is favoured by the IFC as an efficient method to promote the shift from fossil fuels to lower-carbon alternatives. "We think that it is just a key policy that countries should be putting in place to … level the playing field," Mr Kerr said.
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