The tropics, home to many of the world's poorest nations, will be hard hit by global warming even at the lower end of the Paris climate goals, exacerbating inequality and worsening stresses on human populations and ecosystems alike, a new paper argues.
Research published Wednesday in Geophysical Research Letters examined the likely climate change impacts on wealthy and poorer countries under the 1.5 degree-2 degree warming limit - compared to pre-industrial times - as set by the 2015 Paris accord.
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| People volunteer to be sprayed in Karachi, Pakistan, as the mercury climbed well into the 40s this month. Photo: AP |
“People in Darwin will experience more of a shift in their climate than people in Melbourne, for example," said Andrew King, a climate scientist at Melbourne University and co-author of the report.
While tropical regions have generally warmed less than higher-latitude regions in the past century or so, ecosystems and societies typically experience a more narrow temperature variability over the year.
Polar regions, for instance, can experience anomalies of as much as 20 degrees whereas places close to the equator rarely have departures from the norm of more than a few degrees.
"I was surprised by just how clear that outcome was.”
More temperate countries, led by Britain, were much less affected than tropical ones such as Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo - even though the latter nations have been relatively small contributors historically to greenhouse gas emissions, the paper found.
"The tropics tend to be the poorest regions in the world and that means they don’t have the capacity to adapt, even though they’re going to feel the brunt of the climate change," said Dr King, who is also a researcher with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. “It certainly pushes the limits ... and some people won’t be able to cope.”
While the paper looked solely at temperatures, a warming world is also leading to rising sea levels, more powerful storms and heavier precipitation. The atmosphere can hold about 7 per cent more moisture for each degree of warming.
“It’s seems distinctly unfair given the cumulative emissions of countries like the UK,” Dr King said.
“These are the countries that haven’t benefited from industrialisation and may have their economic development hampered in the future by bigger shifts in the climate than the wealthier countries will experience.”
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| Animals in Lahore Zoo in Pakistan were given ice to help them cool off as temperatures reached 44 degrees or warmer last week. Photo: AP |
“While the world’s poorest will be hardest hit by climate change this is not just an issue for our northern neighbours," Mr Jackson said.
"Even current levels of warming are impacting on Australia through severe damage to the Great Barrier Reef, more extreme heatwaves and other weather-related events like bushfires."
While the discrepancy of impacts for poorer nations raised issues of climate injustice, Australia itself could face cascading challenges from abroad.
"What happens to others in our region matters to us," Mr Jackson said. "Severe economic damage and social unrest would have knock-on effects to our economy and national security.”
Sinking shoreline threatens millions in Indonesia
Links
- Why Blowing The 1.5c Global Warming Goal Will Leave Poor Tropical Nations Sweating Most Of All
- Ground zero for climate change: the tropics were first to feel the definite effects in the 1960s
- Fossil fuel emissions hit record high after unexpected growth: Global Carbon Budget 2017
- Developing countries can prosper without increasing emissions
- Great Barrier Reef's five near-death experiences revealed in new paper
- Sydney on track for hottest autumn on record
- 'On the nose': Australians' views favour conservation, curbs on coal
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