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| Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull at the UN Paris climate talks in 2015. Francois Mori |
Analysis of approaches to the world's remaining carbon emissions budget for this century by think tank the Australia Institute finds the country's targets won't meet a fair share by population size, economic costs or a combination of both factors and will need to be ramped up.
Australia's current 2030 emissions reduction target is for a 26 to 28 per cent reduction on 2005 levels, while Labor plans to adopt a 2030 target of 45 per cent below 2005 levels.
On current levels, cumulative global greenhouse gas emissions will surpass levels needed to keep global average surface temperature increases to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels within 20 years.
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| Foreign Minister Julie Bishop hugs then Marshall Islands minister Tony de Brum at the Paris climate summit in 2015. Andrew McLeish |
Ahead of the next major international climate talks in Katowice, Poland in December, the report says the Turnbull government's policy is "inadequate according to any recognised principle-based approach" while Labor's alternative can be regarded as "the bare minimum necessary".
When considered by Australia's population count, the remaining budget would be quickly surpassed and net zero emissions required to be reached in about six years.
On a modified approach considering development and population, Australia's current target of 26 per cent reductions by 2030 would require complete decarbonisation within five years.
Australia wouldn't meet targets under an international cost-sharing approach, designed to equalise economic impacts across countries, with both targets seeing consumption grow and insufficient reductions in place.
The report comes amid concerns about targets for the electricity sector's contribution to carbon emission savings and the impact on other sectors.
"Given Australia's high historic emissions, high per capita emissions and high income, other approaches to assessing nations' contributions to climate action all show that Australia's climate targets are not doing a fair share," the report said.
"Any principle-based approach to target setting will result in highly developed, emissions-intensive nations like Australia having to pursue aggressive emissions reductions immediately and sustaining these reductions over the coming decades.
"The small size of the remaining global emissions budget poses a significant challenge. All countries will need to ramp-up mitigation efforts.
"If the global community is to succeed in keeping emissions within the 2°C budget, mitigation efforts in Australia and elsewhere need to be significantly accelerated on time scales shorter than those contained in the Paris Agreement."
Report author and Australia Institute climate and energy program director Richie Merzian said Australia was unfairly shirking its global responsibilities and predicted the country would come under pressure from allies and neighbours in future climate talks.
"Whether you assess the fairness of a country's emissions reduction target by population, economic cost, or a combination, our analysis shows Australia's reduction target is unambitious, unfair and irresponsible," he said.
"Australia continues to profit from high emissions rather than take up its fair share of reductions."
Emissions reductions and the transition to renewable energy sources remain a key tension point for the Coalition, as it works to deliver the National Energy Guarantee policy.
"It is in Australia's best interest to have targets that do our fair share. Inadequate targets that need continual revision brings uncertainty to business," Mr Merzian said.
"The reduction target uncertainty that has plagued the energy sector will spread and be experienced by all sectors unless we get this right."
Links
- Report: Advance Australia’s fair share - Assessing the fairness of emissions targets (pdf)
- Greenhouse emissions rise 5pc in two years
- Pressure on Labor to back energy guarantee plan
- Why Malcolm Turnbull's emissions target is a negative
- Australia’s 2017 Environment Scorecard: Like A Broken Record, High Temperatures Further Stress Our Ecosystems
- Will Our Beloved Waratahs Survive Climate Change?
- Leading The Way On Climate Change: Is It Australia’s Turn?
- Climate Change: Australia Almost Comes Last In World Ranking
- Australia Faces Potentially Disastrous Consequences Of Climate Change, Inquiry Told
- WA's South West A 'Canary In The Coalmine' For Climate Change
- Australia Ranked Among Worst Developed Countries For Climate Change Action
- Climate Change Is Burning Up Australia: Are We Losing The Battle?
- Australia Sinks On 'Most Credible' Environmental Index In The World
- Australia Drops 10 Spots In Greg Hunt's Most Trusted Climate Rankings
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