Half an hour later the 22-year-old university student was fleeing for his life.
"The wind was gusting in different directions and there was an orange glow in the distance," he says. "I soaked one of my mother's scarves, tied it over my nose and mouth and grabbed my phone. Then I got in the car and tried to get away."
But the narrow streets of the Greek seaside resort surrounded by pine forests were already jammed with vehicles rushing to escape the fire. Mr Kontidis abandoned his car and started running towards the sea.
Climate change is an "accelerant" for these fires, according to the scientists who study them, although it is not the only reason. Urbanisation, changing land use patterns, the arrival of invasive species and even austerity are contributory factors. There have been more than 450 fires covering land of more than 30 hectares in Europe so far this year, according to EU data, which is 40 per cent higher than the average over the past decade.
While fires are common in some parts of the world such as California and Australia, what is unusual about this year is that these disasters are happening in different places, catching people unawares. Fires burning inside the Arctic Circle are the result of drought and heat that have made forests there unusually combustible. Peat lands in the UK, traditionally protected from blazes by moisture, have also been burning amid a heatwave. In the US, the annual average number of large fires has doubled since the 1970s, and this week Yosemite Valley, a national park in California, was evacuated due to a nearby fire.
"There are a lot of extreme fire events occurring," says David Bowman, a professor of fire ecology at the University of Tasmania. He points to the Thomas fire that ravaged Los Angeles' suburbs and freak fires in central Chile last year. "It's not normal — I shouldn't be overwhelmed with opportunities to study extreme fire events."
There is also a growing understanding of their cost. The recent fires have highlighted some of these, both economic and human: 87 people dead in Athens, $US100m worth of forests burnt in Sweden and more than $US2b spent on fire fighting in the US last year. "With each extreme weather event, we get new information for our actuarial models for how likely these events are and their cost," says Trevor Houser, co-director of Climate Impact Lab.
Smoke billows from a fire outside Ljusdal, Sweden. The country is fighting its most serious wildfires in decades. Maja Suslin |
In Greece, which had not suffered a prolonged heatwave before the blaze, the dense illegal housing, high winds and slow response from authorities were key reasons why the fires became so devastating, says Efthymios Lekkas, an Athens university tectonics and geology professor. The impact was worsened because its emergency services have faced severe budget cuts during the country's financial crisis. Local government officials in Mati also failed this year to complete an annual clearing of undergrowth required by law, leaving a thick layer of combustible pine needles and dead branches on pavements and in public spaces around the resort.
"You need a number of ingredients, for wildfires in particular. Climate change is only one factor, but it is a very important factor," says Rowan Sutton, director of climate research for the UK National Centre for Atmospheric Research. "If it is hotter and drier, the risk is greater."
Climate change is central to scientists' understanding of which areas are likely to face greater fire risks in the future. Areas such as the forests in the UK are expected to see an increase in fires as conditions become hotter.
There have been more than 450 fires covering land of more than 30 hectares in Europe so far this year, according to EU data, which is 40 per cent higher than the average over the past decade. |
However, calculating the economic impact of climate change remains a field that is part art, part science, because of the great uncertainties about how much, and how rapidly, global temperatures and weather patterns will change.
Lloyds, the London-based insurance market, estimates that as much as $123bn in global gross domestic product in cities could be at risk from the impact of a warming planet, including windstorms and floods.
Meanwhile, a 2015 study by the journal Nature found that due to climate change, global incomes were likely to be one-fifth lower in 2100 than they would be with a stable climate. And later this year the UN will issue a landmark report that quantifies the impact of 1.5C of warming, compared with 2C. Leaked copies suggest that the world will pass the 1.5-degree warming target by about 2040.
A wildfire approaches Dichato, central Chile, in January last year. Freak fires devastated huge swaths of the country. AP |
The biggest concern, according to Sam Fankhauser, director of the UK's Grantham Research Institute, is what happens if the planet exceeds that 2C warming target on which many economic analyses are based.
"If you just say it costs 3 per cent, 4 per cent or 5 per cent of GDP . . . that misses the whole story of, what happens if it goes really, really bad." Mass relocations of populations, water shortages and increased conflict caused by displacement are among the worst-case scenarios.
"People are starting to have the feeling that it might be a lot worse than some of the estimates suggest," says Mr Fankhauser, referring to the economic modelling. "Now that you experience it, [it] feels a bit more unpleasant than what the models would have said".
A firefighter waters down a back burn near the town of Igo, California, where scorching winds and dry conditions are fueling a number of fatal wildfires. AP |
Stephane Hallegatte, a senior economist in the World Bank's climate change group, says one of the things that will determine the cost of climate change is how quickly people adapt and prepare for a warmer world.
"If you assume that nobody acts until there is a disaster, then with the same change in physical conditions you can have a very high cost," he says.
"The key thing is to see this fire in Sweden not as a Swedish event. People in different parts of the world, say Canada or Russia, should look at this and think this is exactly what they have to expect."
Like other aspects of climate change, adapting to fire risk is difficult: the cost can be hard for societies to accept, when there is a perception that the risks are uncertain. Prof Bowman, the fire scientist, says building codes and urban design need to take fire risks into account. Better land management and landscape features such as fire breaks, parks and golf courses can help reduce fire risk in some areas.
"We haven't got time to debate things, we really need to move into the adaptive mode. But there are . . . always reasons to kick the can down the road," he says, adding that countries are moving far too slowly to address growing fire risks.
"So our adaptive process will be a zigzag reacting to fire disasters. It is heartbreaking, but unfortunately that seems to be the trajectory we are on, we will just have to deal with more death and destruction."
Links
- Record-Breaking Heat And Fires Are Worsened By Climate Change, Scientists Say
- Fire, Fire Everywhere: The 2018 Global Wildfire Season Is Already Disastrous
- It’s A Savage Summer In The Northern Hemisphere – And Climate Change Is Slashing The Odds Of More Heatwaves
- 'Emphatic': Odds Point To Big Dry Expanding Across Eastern Australia
- Heatwave Made More Than Twice As Likely By Climate Change, Scientists Find
- The Guardian View On The Heatwave: Our Climate Is Endangered
- The Global Heatwave Is About To Hit Your Wallet
- The World Is Hot, On Fire, And Flooding. Climate Change Is Here.
No comments :
Post a Comment