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| A "hothouse" climate could trigger earth processes like a major reduction of Antarctic sea ice. (Australian Antarctic Division: Richard Youd) |
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The study titled Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, which involved researchers from around the world, was published in the international journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).
It found the Earth was heading for a tipping point, known as a "hothouse" climate, which could lead to average temperatures up to 5C higher than pre-industrial temperatures and rises in sea level of between 10 and 60 metres.
Lead researcher Professor Will Steffen from the Australian National University (ANU) said at that point much of the earth would be uninhabitable.
He explained that if human emissions raised global temperatures to 2C above pre-industrial temperatures it could trigger earth system processes — or feedbacks — that could then cause further warming.
"The real concern is these tipping elements can act like a row of dominoes," Professor Steffen said.
"Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another.
"It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over."Current efforts 'unlikely' to help avoid tipping point
Professor Steffen said global average temperatures were currently just over 1C above pre-industrial temperatures and rising at 0.17C each decade.
"Even if the Paris Accord [Agreement] target of a 1.5C to 2C rise in temperature is met, we cannot exclude the risk that a cascade of feedbacks could push the Earth system irreversibly onto a 'hothouse Earth' pathway," the study said.
"As yet [these initiatives] are not enough to meet the Paris target."
Professor Steffen said countries needed to work together to "greatly accelerate the transition towards an emission-free world economy".
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"If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies," the study said."Collective human action is required to steer the Earth system away from a potential threshold and stabilise it in a habitable interglacial-like state."
The authors of the study examined 10 feedback processes, some of which could cause "the uncontrollable release" of carbon back into the atmosphere, after it had been stored in the earth.
Some of the processes also included permafrost thaw, Amazon rainforest dieback, a reduction of northern hemisphere snow cover, a loss of Arctic summer sea ice, and a reduction of Antarctic sea ice and polar ice sheets.
The study did not lay down a timeframe for when such events would begin to occur, but theorised — if the threshold was crossed — it could be within a century or two.
"The impacts of a hothouse earth pathway on human societies would likely be massive, sometimes abrupt, and undoubtedly disruptive," the study said.
Links
- Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
- Declines in methane uptake in forest soils
- Sweden's highest point set to lose title as glacier melts
- Last year was warmest ever that didn't feature an El Niño, report finds
- Rising ocean waters from global warming could cost trillions of dollars
- Underwater melting of Antarctic ice far greater than thought, study finds
- Climate change threatens rare British orchid that tricks bees into mating
- Overfishing and climate change push seabirds to extinction
- Global carbon emissions stood still in 2016, offering climate hope
- Record-breaking climate change pushes world into ‘uncharted territory’
- CO2 turned into stone in Iceland in climate change breakthrough
- Climate change: why the Guardian is putting threat to Earth front and centre
- Climate change? Try catastrophic climate breakdown
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