Coal's Days Are Numbered, Top Government Adviser Says

Fairfax - Adam Carey | Cole Latimer | Nick Toscano

The federal government's top energy adviser Kerry Schott says the plunging cost of renewables will force Australia's remaining coal plants to close even earlier than planned, as mining giant BHP Billiton renewed calls for a price on carbon to urgently slash national emissions.
The Morrison government's failure to produce an emissions reduction plan for the electricity sector and general inaction on climate change have been credited with helping to drive a massive negative swing in the Wentworth byelection, which is expected to cost it the seat and force it into minority government.
The nation's energy ministers are due to meet in Sydney on Friday to discuss the Morrison government's bid to lower prices and improve reliability. Efforts to cut greenhouse gas emitted by electricity generators are not on the agenda.

Respected energy chief Kerry Schott. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The federal Coalition insists coal will remain a vital part of Ausralia's energy mix for decades, despite a major UN climate report this month calling for the industry to close down by 2050 to avert the worst climate disasters.
Energy Security Board chair Kerry Schott on Monday predicted that renewables would force many of Australia's remaining coal-fired power plants to make an early exit from the energy market, by beating them on price.
"Commercial reasons will be made about retiring coal plants and they're likely to get dropped out the door faster than their technical lives would suggest," Dr Schott said at a Committee for Economic Development of Australia event in Melbourne.
But she said the transition must be well-managed, to avoid a hasty rush to renewables pushing up energy prices.
Dr Schott predicted Australia would meet its emission reduction targets under the Paris accord, mostly through the actions of state governments.
"Australia has tried practically every emissions policy ever dreamt up and none of them has worked at a federal level," she said.
BHP Billiton on Monday renewed calls for a price on carbon to drive emissions reductions in Australia.
Speaking at a conference in Melbourne, BHP’s head of sustainability and climate change Fiona Wild said the firm accepted the latest findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that the "warming of the climate is unequivocal, the human influence is clear and physical impacts are unavoidable".

Ms Schott says falling renewables prices are likely to force coal plants into early retirement. Credit: Peter Andrews

Australia and the world must act to curb climate change in line with international agreements, provide access to affordable energy, and introduce a price on carbon, she said.
"We believe there should be a price on carbon, implemented in a way that addresses competitiveness concerns and achieves lowest-cost emissions reductions," Dr Wild said.
The Morrison government has dumped its proposed National Energy Guarantee, including emissions reduction goals for the sector, but is still seeking to progress the reliability obligation on retailers to encourage investment in dispatchable generation.
Those aims will be discussed at Friday's Council of Australian Governments meeting, which comes days before the Victorian government goes into caretaker mode ahead of the November 24 state election. Victorian energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio said "we won’t be making any decisions until December."
ACT Climate Change Minister Shane Rattenbury predicted that states and territories will seek to discuss a national greenhouse gas emissions policy for the electricity sector.
"Australian politicians need to deal with climate change and the situation just becomes worse the longer they delay," he said.
NSW Energy Minister Don Harwin said his government's focus at COAG was "easing the burden on the hip pocket for our state’s households and businesses and providing certainty to the market".
Speaking at a conference in Sydney on Monday, Alinta Energy chief Jeff Dimery said the national electricity market had "shortcomings ... it isn't sustainable forever".
Frontier Economics chief executive Danny Price told Fairfax Media that without a national policy to guide investment, including emissions reduction targets, electricity  prices will continue to rise.
"The National Electricity Market can't last more than a few years in its current form, it just can't cope any more," he said.
A new report by consultants Wood Mackenzie forecasts that renewables will become the main global source of energy by 2035.
"This is the point of no return, and represents a new era for the energy industry," it says.
Mr Price said though elements of the government have pushed back against this shift by supporting more coal, the change was inevitable.
"There is serious change going on and you can't stop the evolution of energy just because [former prime minister] Tony Abbott and his mates don’t want it to,” Mr Price said.

Links

• The Morrison Government’s Biggest Economic Problem? Climate Change Denial
• Can We Quit Coal In Time? IPCC Warns World Has Just 12 Years To Avoid Climate Change Catastrophe
• Australia Doesn’t Care To Break Its Coal Habit In The Face Of Climate Change
• To Tackle Climate Change, A New U.N. Climate Report Says Put A High Price On Carbon
• Mining Sector, Morrison Government On The Defensive Over IPCC Report
• Major Climate Report Describes A Strong Risk Of Crisis As Early As 2040
• The Political Will To Prevent Climate Change Is Lacking, Even As The Cost Climbs
• Coal Must Go To Save Great Barrier Reef, IPCC Says In Dire Climate Warning
• 8 Things You Need To Know About The IPCC 1.5˚C Report
• Coal Power Finished By 2050 If Temperature Increase Kept To 1.5 Degrees: IPCC
• Climate Poll Shows Morrison Politically Vulnerable As More Voters Back Action
• More Australians Fear Climate Change As Morrison Government Dumps Emissions Legislation
• Coal Does Not Have An Economic Future In Australia
• A “Middle Finger” To Climate And Renewables: Morrison Draws Fire – And Dismay
• Climate Change Policy Toppled Australia’s Leader. Here’s What It Means For Others.