Emissions Flat-Line As 'Carrot's Not Working And There's No Stick'

Sydney Morning Herald - Peter Hannam

Australia's carbon emissions appear to have edged higher in the final quarter of the 2018-19 financial year, delaying the downward trajectory the nation needs in order to hit the country's Paris climate goals.
National emissions are projected to have reached 134.6 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2-e) in April-June 2019, according to Ndevr Environmental Consultants, an environmental auditing company with a track record of accurately estimating the nation's emissions.

The electricity sector is producing fewer emissions as renewable energy supplies expand, nudging out coal. Credit: AAP

That total would come in about 900,000 tonnes of CO2-e more than for the previous three months, Ndevr said in a report based on public data and sector estimates. The tally would be less - by a similar amount - than the fourth quarter of 2017-18.
For the whole year, emissions were modestly higher than for previous 12 months, marking three consecutive years of increases. Excluding land-use changes - such as deforestation or tree planting - annual emissions have risen for the five years since the Abbott government scrapped the carbon price in 2014.

Source: NDEVR, Australian government

"Emissions are flattening out but it's not good enough," Matt Drum, Endvr's managing director, told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. "Australia needs a significant decrease to get anywhere near the Paris goals."
A Senate order requires the federal government release official quarterly figures within five months of the end of the respective period. The fourth quarter data is due out by the end of next month.
In line with recent quarters, rises in emissions in the booming liquefied natural gas sector have negated a drop in pollution from the electricity industry as renewable power continues to expand push out coal- and gas-fired power, Ndver estimated. The worsening drought also cut emissions from agriculture.

A reduction in emissions from the electricity sector are being negated by increases from the gas industry.

Angus Taylor, the Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction, said that while the government won't pre-empt the official figures, "we can confirm that they will take into account the government's $3.5 billion Climate Solutions Package which accounts for every tonne of abatement needed to meet our 2030 [Paris] target".
"Australia’s international emissions reporting is world class," Mr Taylor said. "We have a comprehensive and timely reporting program for emissions."
Labor, the Greens and environmental groups have criticised the government's emissions stance, not least its plan to meet about half of Australia's Paris target by counting projected "credits" from the current Kyoto Protocol period that ends in 2020.
An environment department official told Senate estimates last week no other country has indicated it would use Kyoto "carryover" credits for their Paris goals. Germany, New Zealand and the UK are among nations to rule them out.
Mr Drum said Australia's emissions trajectory would see it overshoot the 2030 Paris target by 860 million tonnes of CO2 or equivalent gases, or about 1.6 years of its entire annual pollution at current rates.
For instance, the so-called safeguard mechanism introduced by then environment minister Greg Hunt for the 100-plus largest emitting sites had failed to stop pollution rising. Companies had found ways to tap loopholes to lift emissions about 7 per cent in the most recent annual statistics, he said.
"The carrot's not working and there's no stick," Mr Drum said.

Links

• Tracking 2 Degrees FY2019 Q4
• Australia’s Biggest Property Companies Are Making Net-Zero Emissions Pledges – Now We Can Track Them 
• Australia On Track To Miss Paris Climate Targets As Emissions Hit Record Highs 
• Australia's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Up For Four Years In A Row 
• Australia’s Carbon Emissions Highest On Record, Data Shows
• Australia To Miss 2030 Emissions Target By Massive Margin 
• Why Australia Is Heading For Epic Failure On Carbon Emissions 
• Australia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Climb Again Amid Climate Policy Vacuum
• Australian Government Seen Globally As Climate 'Denialist', UN Summit Observers Say