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Hydroelectric power has helped Costa Rica ditch fossil fuels.
John E Anderson / shutterstock
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But climate researchers have not given up hope. We asked a few
Conversation authors to highlight some more positive stories from 2019.
Heather Alberro, associate lecturer in political ecology, Nottingham Trent University
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Costa Rica offers us a viable climate futureHeather Alberro, associate lecturer in political ecology, Nottingham Trent University
After decades of climate talks, including the recent COP25 in Madrid,
emissions have only continued to rise. Indeed, a recent UN report noted
that a fivefold increase in current national climate change mitigation
efforts would be needed to meet the 1.5℃ limit on warming by 2030. With
the radical transformations needed in our global transport, housing,
agricultural and energy systems in order to help mitigate looming
climate and ecological breakdown, it can be easy to lose hope.However, countries like Costa Rica offer us promising examples of the
“possible”. The Central American nation has implemented a refreshingly
ambitious plan to completely decarbonise its economy by 2050. In the lead-up to this, last year with its economy still growing at 3%, Costa Rica was able to derive 98% of its electricity from renewable sources. Such an example demonstrates that with sufficient political will, it is possible to meet the daunting challenges ahead.
Richard Hodgkins, senior lecturer in physical geography, Loughborough University
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Financial investors are cooling on fossil fuelsRichard Hodgkins, senior lecturer in physical geography, Loughborough University
Movements such as 350.org have long argued for fossil fuel divestment, but they have recently been joined by institutional investors such as Climate Action 100+,
which is using the influence of its US$35 trillion of managed funds,
arguing that minimising climate breakdown risks and maximising
renewables’ growth opportunities are a fiduciary duty.Moody’s credit-rating agency recently flagged ExxonMobil for falling revenues despite rising expenditure, noting:
“The negative outlook also reflects the emerging threat to oil and gas
companies’ profitability […] from growing efforts by many nations to
mitigate the impacts of climate change through tax and regulatory
policies.”
A more adverse financial environment for fossil fuel companies reduces the likelihood of new development in business frontier regions such as the Arctic, and indeed, major investment bank Goldman Sachs has declared that it “will decline any financing transaction that directly supports new upstream Arctic oil exploration or development”.
Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology, University of Reading
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| An oil pipeline in northern Alaska. saraporn / shutterstock |
A more adverse financial environment for fossil fuel companies reduces the likelihood of new development in business frontier regions such as the Arctic, and indeed, major investment bank Goldman Sachs has declared that it “will decline any financing transaction that directly supports new upstream Arctic oil exploration or development”.
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We are getting much better at forecasting disasterHannah Cloke, professor of hydrology, University of Reading
In March and April 2019, two enormous tropical cyclones hit the south-east coast of Africa, killing more than 600 people and leaving nearly 2 million people in desperate need of emergency aid.
There isn’t much that is positive about that, and there’s nothing new about cyclones. But this time scientists were able to provide the first early warning of the impending flood disaster by linking together accurate medium-range forecasts of the cyclone with the best ever simulations of flood risk. This meant that the UK government, for example, set about working with aid agencies in the region to start delivering emergency supplies to the area that would flood, all before Cyclone Kenneth had even gathered pace in the Indian Ocean.
We know that the risk of dangerous floods is increasing as the climate continues to change. Even with ambitious action to reduce greenhouse gases, we must deal with the impact of a warmer more chaotic world. We will have to continue using the best available science to prepare ourselves for whatever is likely to come over the horizon.
Marc Hudson, researcher in sustainable consumption, University of Manchester
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| Cyclones Idai and Kenneth caused huge floods in Mozambique.Emidio Jozine / EPA |
There isn’t much that is positive about that, and there’s nothing new about cyclones. But this time scientists were able to provide the first early warning of the impending flood disaster by linking together accurate medium-range forecasts of the cyclone with the best ever simulations of flood risk. This meant that the UK government, for example, set about working with aid agencies in the region to start delivering emergency supplies to the area that would flood, all before Cyclone Kenneth had even gathered pace in the Indian Ocean.
We know that the risk of dangerous floods is increasing as the climate continues to change. Even with ambitious action to reduce greenhouse gases, we must deal with the impact of a warmer more chaotic world. We will have to continue using the best available science to prepare ourselves for whatever is likely to come over the horizon.
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Local authorities across the world are declaring a ‘climate emergency’Marc Hudson, researcher in sustainable consumption, University of Manchester
More than 1,200 local authorities around the world declared a “climate emergency” in 2019. I think there are two obvious dangers:
first, it invites authoritarian responses (stop breeding! Stop
criticising our plans for geoengineering!). And second, an “emergency”
declaration may simply be a greenwash followed by business-as-usual.In Manchester, where I live and research, the City Council is
greenwashing. A nice declaration in July was followed by more flights
for staff (to places just a few hours away by train), and further car
parks and roads. The deadline for a “bring zero-carbon date forward?” report has been ignored.
But these civic declarations have also kicked off a wave of civic activism, as campaigners have found city councils easier to hold to account than national governments. I’m part of an activist group called “Climate Emergency Manchester” – we inform citizens and lobby councillors. We’ve assessed progress so far, based on Freedom of Information Act requests, and produced a “what could be done?” report. As the council falls further behind on its promises, we will be stepping up our activity, trying to pressure it to do the right thing.
Dénes Csala, lecturer in energy system dynamics, Lancaster University
But these civic declarations have also kicked off a wave of civic activism, as campaigners have found city councils easier to hold to account than national governments. I’m part of an activist group called “Climate Emergency Manchester” – we inform citizens and lobby councillors. We’ve assessed progress so far, based on Freedom of Information Act requests, and produced a “what could be done?” report. As the council falls further behind on its promises, we will be stepping up our activity, trying to pressure it to do the right thing.
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Radical climate policy goes mainstreamDénes Csala, lecturer in energy system dynamics, Lancaster University
Before the 2019 UK general election, I compared the Conservative and Labour election manifestos,
from a climate and energy perspective. Although the party with the
clearly weaker plan won eventually, I am still stubborn enough to be
hopeful with regard to the future of political action on climate change.For the first time, in a major economy, a leading party’s manifesto
had at its core climate action, transport electrification and full
energy system decarbonisation, all on a timescale compatible with IPCC
directives to avoid catastrophic climate change. This means the
discussion that has been cooking at the highest levels since the 2015
Paris Agreement has started to boil down into tangible policies.
Mark Maslin, professor of earth system science, UCL
In 2019, public awareness of climate change rose sharply, driven by
the schools strikes, Extinction Rebellion, high impact IPCC reports,
improved media coverage, a BBC One climate change documentary and the UK
and other governments declaring a climate emergency. Two recent polls
suggest that over 75% of Americans accept humans have caused climate change.Empowerment of the first truly globalised generation
has catalysed this new urgency. Young people can access knowledge at
the click of a button. They know climate change science is real and see
through the deniers’ lies because this generation does not access traditional media – in fact, they bypass it.
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Young people are on the march!Mark Maslin, professor of earth system science, UCL
The awareness and concern regarding climate change will continue to grow. Next year will be an even bigger year as the UK will chair the UN climate change negotiations in Glasgow – and expectation are running high.
Links
- Costa Rica Launches Decarbonization Plan
- Costa Rica will run on more than 98% renewable energy for fifth consecutive year, government says
- Climate Action 100+
- Goldman Sachs Environmental Policy Framework
- Flood forecasting science informing relief efforts
- Climate emergency declarations in 1,261 jurisdictions and local governments cover 798 million citizens
- 75% of Americans now believe humans fuel climate change
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