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| Records keep on falling |
That lines up with the last decade of warming. This March marks the 423rd consecutive month that temperatures have exceeded the 20th-century global average. Last year was the second hottest on record, according to NOAA, following 2016. All five of the warmest years have been recorded since 2015.
The first three months of 2020 are already nearing temperature records
Monthly temperature anomalies above 20th-century global averages (2000-2020)
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The early heat makes it virtually certain that 2020 will place in the ranks of the hottest years.
Global land and ocean surface temperatures were 2.09°F (1.16°C) above
average.
Records were set across the globe, particularly in eastern
Europe and Asia, where temperatures were 5.4°F (3.0°C) above average.
How much hotter is it going to get? Global climate models have proved remarkably accurate, and the world is now running closer to those projected by Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change
in 2015.
Cities will feel the heat sooner: Temperatures in cities such
as Moscow, London, Seattle are expected to shift from temperate to
sub-tropical, rising 3.5° C to 6° C above normal, according to 2019 research in PLOS One.
Globally, research suggests we’ll see close to 2°C warming by the end of century, even in the most optimistic scenario. And that’s not the path we’re on.
In
2015, scientists introduced “shared socioeconomic pathways” reflecting
different ways the world might evolve along key indices such as
population, urbanization, and economic growth.
We’re now far closer to what modelers refer to as the “regional rivalry — a rocky road” scenario, reflecting more nationalism and reduced cooperation. That scenario has global temperature rising more than 4 °C above pre-industrial averages.
Links
- NOAA: March 2020 global temperature second warmest on record
- 2019 was 2nd hottest year on record for Earth say NOAA, NASA
- Should we expect each year in the next decade (2019-2028) to be ranked among the top 10 warmest years globally?
- Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming
- How hot will Earth get by 2100?
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