(AU) Cyclones Can Be Predicted Four Months Ahead, Thanks To New Australasian Model

ABC News - Evan Wasuka | Elsie Lange

Category two Cyclone Sarai was one of the storms that battered the Pacific last season. (Supplied: Japanese Meteorological Agency / Himawari-8)

Key Points Cyclone modelling has traditionally been difficult due to complex interactions between the sea and atmosphere A new Australia-New Zealand forecast model now synthesizes these interactions simultaneously This could strengthen the Pacific's preparedness for its annual cyclone season

Cyclones have been notoriously hard to predict over decades, but a new scientific model could prove to be a circuit-breaker, particularly in the cyclone-battered Pacific.

Newcastle University, in collaboration with New Zealand's National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, has released a new predictive tool call Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific (TCO-SP), which can forecast cyclones up to four months in advance.

Current modelling only produces forecasts one month in advance, while actual cyclone paths may not necessarily follow predicted paths.

Traditionally, the severity and paths of tropical cyclones have been hard to predict because of the complex interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere, but this new tool manages to capture all of these interactions simultaneously.

The above graphic shows how evolving cyclone prediction technology would have mapped Cyclone Tracy's path. (Supplied: BOM)

"We consider the most recent changes in ocean and atmospheric variability, and that enables us to refine the outlooks based on what's just happened," Andrew Magee, a specialist in climate change's effects on extreme weather events at Newcastle University, told the ABC.

Dr Magee added this could buy Pacific governments lifesaving time to prepare for the region's annual cyclone season, which runs between November and April.

There are already nine tropical cyclones predicted in the south-west Pacific for the upcoming season.

New tool could be a Pacific life-saver


Cyclone Harold devastated parts of Vanuatu earlier this year.

Earlier this year, category five Cyclone Harold tore through Vanuatu, Fiji, Tonga, and the Solomon Islands, leaving a trail of ruin and killing more than 25 people.

For ship captains like Eddie Varou from the Solomon Islands, any progress in cyclone forecasting is exciting and would benefit many in the region.

"Those islands depend entirely on fruits, so if you can predict which months cyclones can come, then these people will have three months to prepare their food, their rice, so when the cyclone hits, they are already ready," Mr Varou said.

"I hope our Government can take this on."

Cyclone Harold struck Vanuatu this year with winds of up to 285 kph. (ABC News: Dan McGarry)

Neville Koop, a meteorologist from Na Draki Weather in Fiji, said the research was a "major step" in helping authorities solve community-based issues such as disaster preparedness leading up to cyclone season.

"This provides the expert level much more information about likely scenarios for cyclone activity, both short term … over the course of days and weeks, right out to seasonal and into annual [forecasts]," Mr Koop said.

He said the technology could potentially be used to predict events "several years ahead".

Links

• A new island-scale tropical cyclone outlook for southwest Pacific nations and territories
• Storm warning: a new long-range tropical cyclone outlook is set to reduce disaster risk for Pacific Island communities
• Vanuatu faces 12-month recovery as Cyclone Harold heads for Fiji
• Why are cyclone paths so difficult to predict?
• The ingredients that make up a recipe for disaster
• Winston strikes Fiji: your guide to cyclone science
• What makes the Bay of Bengal one of Earth's deadliest cyclone zones?