More Than 1 Billion People Face Displacement By 2050: Report

Reuters - Luke Baker

Food and water shortages, together with climate-related disasters, will uproot growing numbers of people across Africa, Central Asia and Middle East, warns think-tank

FILE PHOTO: Zeinab, 14, sits as she holds her nephew at a camp for internally displaced people from drought hit areas in Dollow, Somalia April 4, 2017. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Key points: 19 countries with the highest number of ecological threats are among the world’s 40 least peaceful countries including Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Chad, India and Pakistan. Over one billion people live in 31 countries where the country’s resilience is unlikely to sufficiently withstand the impact of ecological events by 2050, contributing to mass population displacement. Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa are the regions facing the largest number of ecological threats. By 2040, a total of 5.4 billion people – more than half of the world’s projected population – will live in the 59 countries experiencing high or extreme water stress, including India and China. 5 billion people could suffer from food insecurity by 2050; which is an increase of 1.5 billion people from today. The lack of resilience in countries covered in the ETR will lead to worsening food insecurity and competition over resources, increasing civil unrest and mass displacement, exposing developed countries to increased influxes of refugees.

LONDON - Rapid population growth, lack of access to food and water and increased exposure to natural disasters mean more than 1 billion people face being displaced by 2050, according to a new analysis of global ecological threats.

Compiled by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), a think-tank that produces annual terrorism and peace indexes, the Ecological Threat Register uses data from the United Nations and other sources to assess eight ecological threats and predict which countries and regions are most at risk.

“Ecological threats and climate change pose serious challenges to global peacefulness. Over the next 30 years lack of access to food and water will only increase without urgent global cooperation. In the absence of action civil unrest, riots and conflict will most likely increase. COVID-19 is already exposing gaps in the global food chain”. 
Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace

With the world’s population forecast to rise to nearly 10 billion by 2050, intensifying the scramble for resources and fuelling conflict, the research shows as many as 1.2 billion people living in vulnerable areas of sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East may be forced to migrate by 2050.

By comparison, ecological factors and conflict led to the displacement of some 30 million people in 2019, the report said.

“This will have huge social and political impacts, not just in the developing world, but also in the developed, as mass displacement will lead to larger refugee flows to the most developed countries,” said Steve Killelea, IEP’s founder.

The register groups the threats into two broad categories: food insecurity, water scarcity and population growth in one; and natural disasters including floods, droughts, cyclones, rising sea levels and rising temperatures in the other.

The result is an analysis assessing how many threats each of some 150 countries faces and their capacity to withstand them.

FILE PHOTO: Caked mud is seen before a small patch of water as the region deals with a prolonged drought at a dam near Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, January 18, 2020. Picture taken January 18, 2020. REUTERS/Philimon Bulawayo

While some, such as India and China, are most threatened by water scarcity in the coming decades, others like Pakistan, Iran, Mozambique, Kenya and Madagascar face a toxic combination of threats, as well as a diminishing ability to deal with them.

“This will have huge social and political impacts, not just in the developing world, but also in the developed, as mass displacement will lead to larger refugee flows to the most developed countries. Ecological change is the next big global threat to our planet and people’s lives, and we must unlock the power of business and government action to build resilience for the places most at risk.“ 
Steve Killelea, Founder & Executive Chairman of the Institute for Economics and Peace

“These countries are broadly stable now but have high exposure to ecological threats and low and deteriorating ‘positive peace’, which means they are at higher risk of future collapse,” the 90-page analysis found.

Killelea said the world now has 60% less fresh water available than it did 50 years ago, while demand for food is forecast to rise by 50% in the next 30 years, driven in large part by the expansion of the middle class in Asia.

Those factors, combined with natural disasters that are only likely to increase in frequency because of climate change, mean even stable states are vulnerable by 2050.

The IEP said it hoped the register, which may become an annual analysis, would shape aid and development policies, with more emphasis and funding going towards climate-related impacts.

Links

• Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
• Ecological Threat Register 2020
• (AU) Too Hot For Humans? First Nations People Fear Becoming Australia's First Climate Refugees 
• Defence Chief Sounds Warning On Surge Of Climate Change Refugees 
• Climate Change Could Threaten Up To 2 Billion Refugees By 2100 
• The Coming Wave Of Climate Displacement
• ‘Disaster Alley’: Australia Could Be Set To Receive New Wave Of Climate Refugees 
• UN Ruling Could Be A Game-Changer For Climate Refugees And Climate Action 
• Climate Change Could Cost The U.S. Up To 10.5 Percent Of Its GDP By 2100, Study Finds