(Forbes) Climate Change Could Batter World’s Wealthiest Economies Twice As Badly As Covid, Oxfam Says

Forbes - Carlie Porterfield

G7 countries will lose $5tn a year by 2050 if temperatures rise by 2.6C

Ocean Rebellion protesters portrayed Prime Minister Boris Johnson and an oil company’s archetypal corporate shill over the weekend in Cornwall. In Pictures via Getty Images

The world’s seven richest countries are in danger of losing nearly $5 trillion a year within the next three decades over the catastrophic results of climate change, British charity Oxfam said Monday, a loss double that of the damage done by the coronavirus pandemic.

Ocean Rebellion protesters portrayed Prime Minister Boris Johnson and an oil company’s archetypal corporate shill over the weekend in Cornwall. In Pictures via Getty Images

Key Facts

• G7 countries can expect to count an average GDP shrinkage of 8.5% annually by 2050 if existing climate change trends continue, according to an Oxfam analysis of Swiss Re Institute research.
  
  
• The coronavirus pandemic, which triggered widespread unemployment, sharp drops in spending and record stimulus packages, only saw those seven countries’ GDP drop by an average of 4.2%.
  
  
• Oxfam pointed out that, unlike the coronavirus pandemic, the economy won’t “bounce back” from the damage brought on by climate change—researchers project its economic effects will only grow worse each year.
  
  
• Climate change could adversely affect the economy through an increase in storms, floods and droughts, which could result in mass human migration, property damage, trade disruptions and falling productivity, according to the Swiss Re Institute. 
  
  
• Poorer countries are even worse off, according to Oxfam: India could lose 27% of its economy by 2050, and the GDP of the Republic of the Philippines could shrink by 35% within the same time frame.

“The climate crisis is already devastating lives in poorer countries, but the world’s most developed economies are not immune,” Oxfam GB CEO Danny Sriskandarajah said in a statement Monday.

Big Number

132 million. That’s how many additional people worldwide could be forced into extreme poverty between now and 2030 over climate change, according to the World Bank.

What To Watch For

Oxfam is calling for G7 countries to strengthen their climate action goals and cut more carbon. The move would have economic benefits, according to Oxfam. While current projections show the U.K. economy shrinking by 6.5% by 2050, the country could reduce damage to a 2.4% slide if G7 countries were to shift gears to better follow the Paris Agreement.

Key Background

The world’s seven richest countries are slated to come together this week in Cornwall, England, for the first in-person G7 Summit since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic. 

While the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Canada have all set carbon emission goals, most fall short of necessary adjustments that will keep global warming below 1.5°C, the level outlined in the Paris Agreement that experts say would trigger catastrophic climate change, according to Oxfam. 

A study released in March found that the world would need the equivalent of a coronavirus lockdown every two years to meet the goals set forth in the Paris Agreement. The U.K. will host G7 talks dedicated to climate change this fall in Glasgow.

Links

• The economics of climate change: no action not an option (pdf)
• Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030 (pdf)
• G7 Economies Could Lose 8.5% Per Year By 2050 Without More Ambitious Climate Action
• Climate crisis to shrink G7 economies twice as much as Covid-19, says research
• Report: World Needs Equivalent Of Pandemic Lockdown Every Two Years To Meet Paris Carbon Emission Goals
• Global Carbon Emissions Bounce Back To Pre-Pandemic Levels
• Report: Drop In Greenhouse Gas Emissions Amid Covid-19 Pandemic Fails To Slow Climate Crisis
• The World Has To Cut Carbon Emissions By 45% Under Paris Agreement, But Is Only On Track For A Less Than 1% Decline