(AU ABC) Australia Avoids Great Barrier Reef Global Embarrassment, But The Dangers Of Climate Change Remain For The Reef

ABC News - Michael Slezak

Australia has avoided the embarrassment of the Great Barrier Reef being labelled in danger after lobbying by Environment Minister Sussan Ley. (ABC/AAP)

When the scientific advisors to UNESCO recommended the Great Barrier Reef be added to UNESCO's in-danger list, Environment Minister Sussan Ley claimed the process stunk.

She argued it was a result of dirty politics, not science.

So it's a matter of some irony that her victory this week — avoiding an in-danger list for at least another couple of years — comes after some skilled politicking.

If there are claims that politics have swayed outcomes, then let's strip away the politics and look at the facts — the things that actually matter to the reef.

Great Barrier Reef avoids

'in danger' tag by UNESCO

The Great Barrier Reef will not be added to UNESCO's "in danger" list this year, after environment minister Sussan Ley's whirlwind diplomatic effort won enough support. Read more

In 2015, the Great Barrier Reef narrowly escaped being listed as "in danger".

And regardless of that decision, and whether it fits UNESCO's criteria this time around, the facts show the reef clearly in danger.

'Dead corals don't make babies'

Mass bleaching events on the reef were a new — but still relatively rare — phenomenon back in 2015. The first one was in 1998 and then there was another in 2002.

The combined impact of those two bleaching events, outbreaks of crown of thorns starfish and severe cyclones mean the reef has lost half of its hard coral cover since 1985. 

That rate of loss is unprecedented in the previous 400 years, according to the Australian Institute of Marine Science.

Layered on top of that, the reef was being assaulted by fossil fuel giants developing major infrastructure along its coast.

Three massive LNG plants had just been built in the World Heritage Area on Curtis Island off Gladstone, the construction of which involved dredging.

And Adani was proposing to expand the Abbot point coal terminal, and dump dredge spoil in the World Heritage Area.

Adani's Abbot Point coal storage and dam beside Caley Valley wetlands in north Queensland. (Supplied: Adani)
 

Regardless, Australia was spared the embarrassment of an in-danger listing at the time, with stern words from UNESCO about acting on climate change, and the need for the reef's declines to halt and "reverse".

But fast forward six years and Adani's dumping proceeded, mass bleaching events hit three times in five years, and Australia's policies on climate change have not grown in ambition.

The 2016 and 2017 bleaching events wiped out half the shallow-water corals and the next year, coral reproduction dropped by nearly 90 per cent.

"Dead corals don't make babies," Professor Terry Hughes from James Cook University said at the time.

The reef's return

Despite the 2020 bleaching event, the reef has been in a period of recovery since 2019, and the most fast-growing (but also most fragile) corals have boomed, and coral cover in many parts of the reef has today returned to levels not seen since the 1980s.

Great Barrier Reef in 'recovery window'.
But it could be short lived

The Great Barrier Reef is experiencing a rare window of recovery due to a break in weather and bleaching events according to the latest observations from marine scientists. Read more

But the repeated insults have changed the reef, and left it more vulnerable. Those fast-growing corals make up a much greater percentage of the overall cover, and are much more vulnerable to storms, bleaching and predation.

"Because of these vulnerabilities and likelihood of more climate-related severe weather events, future disturbances may result in rapid decline on these reefs," said Dr Mike Emslie from the Australian Institute of Marine Science when their long-term monitoring results were released this month. 

Through all this, the official outlook for the reef remains "very poor".

And according to the federal government's Great Barrier Reef Authority: "The window of opportunity to improve the Reef's long-term future is now." 

Environment Minister Sussan Ley with Prime Minister Scott Morrison. (AAP)

Despite all that, Australia again avoided the embarrassment of a listing this year.

But without Australia taking international leadership on climate change, it's hard to see how it will be avoided in the years to come.

UNESCO has said that Australia's plan for the reef needed to include actions to address climate change, which are in line with the Paris Agreement, which involves trying to stop climate change at 1.5C of warming.

That makes sense, because even at 1.5C of warming, up to 90 per cent of the world's corals could be lost.

And for Australia's targets to be consistent with the agreement, Australia will need to nearly triple its ambition for 2030.

All that certainly sounds like "danger" for the reef.

Links

• Great Barrier Reef in 'recovery window' after year without major heatwaves, cyclone disturbances
• Government 'blindsided' by move to list Great Barrier Reef as 'in danger'
• (AU The Guardian) Coalition Believes It Has Numbers To Stop Great Barrier Reef Being Listed As ‘In Danger’
• (AU ABC) Great Barrier Reef In 'Recovery' But Experts Say Progress Will Be Threatened By Climate-Related Disturbances
• (AU The Guardian) ‘Fossil Fuel Friends’: Saudi Arabia And Bahrain Back Australia’s Lobbying On Great Barrier Reef
• (AU SMH) Coalition Fighting To Stop Great Barrier Reef Being Declared ‘In Danger’
• Barrier Reef: Ley Stunned By 22 Years Of Warnings
• (AU The Age) ‘UNESCO Was Right’: Global Experts Back Barrier Reef Danger Warning