Fiona Harvey Environment editor The Guardian
Poorer countries want rapid emission cuts and more financial help in face of US leader’s stance on global heating
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| All countries are supposed to come up with stringent national plans on cutting emissions at Cop30 in Brazil this year. Photograph: Michel Euler/AP |
Diplomats from the developing world are rallying to support Brazil, which will host a crucial climate summit in November, after last year’s talks in Azerbaijan ended in disappointment and acrimony.
Ali Mohamed, the chair of the African group of negotiators and Kenya’s special envoy for climate change, pointed to record temperatures last year and continuing extreme weather. “Africa, responsible for less than 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, remains disproportionately affected by the intensifying impacts of climate change,” he said. “It is unacceptable that this devastation is caused by the pollution of just a few countries in the world, specifically the G20, and they must take responsibility for their actions.”
As well as needing rich countries to cut their emissions, vulnerable nations need financial help, as they struggle to cope with the devastation they are already seeing. “Adaptation is the priority for us, not a priority,” said Evans Njewa, chair of the least developed countries group. “We are prioritising adaptation, for our key sources of livelihood, and our economies. [Adaptation is essential to our] agriculture, water, the management of natural resources, food security and nutrition.”
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| On his first day in his second term as president, Donald Trump signed a letter giving notice to UN that the US was withdrawing from the Paris agreement. Photograph: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images |
Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris agreement came after a fraught and unsatisfactory ending to the Cop29 summit in Baku in November, at which poor countries were promised $1.3tn a year in climate finance by 2035, but of that sum only $300bn is to come chiefly from developed countries. The rest would be made up in hoped-for private sector finance and from potential levies, such as taxes on shipping and frequent flyers, which have yet to be agreed.
For many in the developing world, this is not good enough. If they are to play a role in curbing carbon – and most of the future growth in emissions is projected to come from the developing world – they are demanding a better financial settlement.
“The failure of Cop29 to secure sufficient financing for developing countries – those most affected by climate impacts – represents a grave setback,” said Harjeet Singh, a climate activist and the founding director of the Satat Sampada Climate Foundation. “Without this support, their recovery efforts and transitions to renewable energy are severely hindered, jeopardising global emission reduction goals and exacerbating the climate crisis.
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| Activists attend a protest at Cop29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. Photograph: COP29 Azerbaijan/EPA |
Current NDCs, agreed at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow in 2021, are insufficient to hold temperatures within 1.5C of preindustrial levels. Last year was the first to be consistently above 1.5C, and if that trend continues in the longer term the crucial limit will be judged to have been irretrievably breached. The new NDCs will govern emissions for the next decade, so Cop30 represents one of the last chances to put the world on track to avoid irreparable climate breakdown.
Camilla More, a climate diplomacy researcher at the International Institute for Environment and Development thinktank, said: “The world can’t afford to delay any further. That’s why this round of climate targets is critical in changing the course of global efforts to combat climate change.”
Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has boosted the prospects for Cop30 with two widely welcomed appointments. André Aranha Corrêa do Lago, a veteran climate diplomat, will take on the role of Cop president, and Ana Toni, the government’s climate change secretary, will be executive director of the summit.
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| The Brazilian president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, (centre) poses with workers during a visit the venue that will host Cop30 in Belém, Brazil. Photograph: Tarso Sarraf/AFP/Getty Images |
The two will face a daunting task: Cop29 ended in fierce criticism of the developed world from poor countries, led by India, which denounced the outcome as “abysmally poor”.
Yalchin Rafiyev, the chief negotiator for the Azerbaijani hosts, told the Guardian that his experience of Cop29 made him optimistic for Cop30, as countries should have more common ground in discussions of how to reduce emissions than they had in settling who should pay for it. “Finance [the subject of Cop29] was the most divisive issue,” he said. “If we could manage to get agreement on finance, I am hopeful that we should be able to agree on NDCs.”
Mohamed Adow, the director of the Power Shift Africa thinktank, said the fierce controversies that overshadowed Cop29 need not dog Belém. “There’s a good chance that the rancour and acrimony of Cop29 will be less problematic in Brazil. A large part of the blame was due to the weak Azeri hosts, who mishandled the talks, offended a number of countries and lacked either the diplomatic nous or geopolitical heft to steer talks to a positive outcome,” he said. “The good news is Brazil is much better suited to the job. A progressive leadership, experienced diplomats and one of the great rising forces in geopolitics should result in a much more positive environment.”
Brazil will need powerful allies, however, and with Trump and his many admirers around the world ascendant, there is a dearth of strong leadership on the climate among the biggest economies. Influential countries that have championed climate action in the past are facing fraught elections this year, or internal political crises: in Germany, the coalition led by the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, broke down in the face of a far-right challenge, with elections to be held this weekend; in France, the president, Emmanuel Macron – who convened several climate finance conferences – remains mired in political turmoil; across the EU, rightwing parties are fomenting a backlash against green policy; and in Canada, the previous fragile cross-party consensus on climate action could crumble in the election looming after premier Justin Trudeau’s resignation.
The stance taken by China, which with more than 30% of global emissions is the world’s biggest source of greenhouse gases by some distance, will be crucial. China has a target of peaking emissions by 2030, and reaching net zero by 2060. This is “highly insufficient” and would lead to a world more than 3C hotter than preindustrial levels, according to Climate Action Tracker. With rapidly increasing power generation from renewable sources, and a burgeoning electric vehicle market, the country could do much better.
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| Piles of coal at a storage facility in Chongqing, south-west China, which produces more than 30% of global emissions. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images |
When it does come, China’s NDC needs to be tough if hopes of a 1.5C limit are to be kept alive. “We believe a 30% reduction [in emissions] by 2035, based on an imminent emissions peak of 2025, would be a strong Chinese NDC,” said Li Shuo, the director of the China climate hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “This goal will be very challenging, though, in light of the geopolitical environment, as well as China’s domestic economic struggles.”
India, the world’s sixth biggest economy, will also be a key player, with its heavy reliance on coal alongside a rapidly growing renewable energy sector. Arunabha Ghosh, the chief executive of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, a New Delhi-based thinktank, said: “India must remain steadfast in its commitment to climate action – to capitalise on the strategic opportunities in technology, investment, industrial development, green livelihoods, and greater resilience for the economy. Climate risks are now macroeconomic risks, and climate policy is now industrial policy.”
While many of Europe’s major economies are taking a rightward turn, the exception is the UK, where the prime minister, Keir Starmer, has made shifting to a low-carbon economy one of his key “missions” for government. Starmer is seeking closer relations with China, the US and Europe. He had a 45-minute phone call with Trump days after the inauguration, though climate policy was not discussed. Rachel Reeves, the chancellor of the exchequer, visited China in January, and Ed Miliband, the secretary of state for energy security and net zero, is expected to make a trip to Beijing this year.
Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate adviser, now with the American University Center for Environmental Policy, called on the UK to fill the global leadership vacuum left by the “climate nihilism” of the US president. “Given the dearth of EU centre-left leadership, UK leaders like Keir Starmer and Ed Miliband must step forcefully into the void, leveraging relationships with key nations in the global south including Brazil, India, and Kenya,” he said. “This ought to be Britain’s most important Cop since Glasgow.”
Links
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