Australia on Fire Watch: Is Another Black Summer Brewing? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points El Niño has returned, bringing heat and dryness Fuel loads are dangerously high in eastern forests Fire agencies warn of a potentially devastating summer Australia's climate policies remain fragmented Communities urged to prepare for worst-case scenarios

Australia may be staring down the barrel of another Black Summer as climate, fuel, and policy failures converge.

El Niño is back, intensifying heatwaves and drying out the landscape.

Fuel loads in forests from Queensland to Victoria have reached alarming levels.

Fire experts say early conditions mirror those that led to the devastating fires of 2019–20.

The question now is not whether the fires will come, but how bad they’ll be this time.

A Dangerous Climate Setup

After three consecutive La Niña years of heavy rain and vegetation growth, Australia's eastern seaboard is now facing the opposite: heat, dryness, and accelerating fire risk. The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared the return of El Niño in September 2023^[1]. This weather pattern is historically associated with severe heatwaves and widespread bushfires.

The Climate Council warns that eastern Australia is already experiencing hotter-than-average temperatures, low soil moisture, and reduced humidity — all ingredients for extreme fire behaviour^[2]. These effects are amplified by the long-term trend of global warming, with Australia now 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial levels^[3].

The Forests Are Ready to Burn

Years of above-average rainfall allowed vegetation to flourish across national parks, farmlands, and rural areas. But as those green thickets dry out, they become dangerous tinder. The Australasian Fire Authorities Council has flagged regions of "above normal fire potential" stretching from south-east Queensland down through New South Wales and into eastern Victoria^[4].

New South Wales Rural Fire Service Commissioner Rob Rogers recently said the current build-up of fuel is “even worse in some areas than it was before the 2019–2020 Black Summer”^[5].

Lessons Unlearned?

The 2019–2020 fires burned over 24 million hectares, destroyed more than 3,000 homes, and killed or displaced an estimated 3 billion animals^[6]. Despite a major Royal Commission and a raft of recommendations, experts warn that key reforms — including Indigenous-led land management, climate resilience planning, and equipment upgrades — remain patchy or underfunded^[7].

“We’ve had five years to prepare for this moment,” says bushfire researcher Dr. David Bowman. “In some areas, we have. In others, it’s business as usual — and that’s dangerous.”

Communities on the Frontline

Local councils and residents are being urged to update bushfire survival plans and revisit evacuation routes. In towns like Braidwood and Batemans Bay, fire crews are training harder and earlier than usual. But many vulnerable communities are still recovering from the last disaster and lack resources to fully prepare for the next.

“We are doing what we can, but we need national leadership on climate and fire policy,” says Cr Michael Lyon from the Byron Shire Council^[8].

Can This Be Prevented?

While fires are a natural part of Australia’s landscape, their frequency and intensity are being supercharged by human-induced climate change. The window to avoid a repeat of Black Summer is narrowing. Limiting global warming, implementing proactive land management, and fully funding emergency response systems remain the only realistic paths forward.

If not, the inferno will return — hotter, faster, and deadlier.

Footnotes

1. ABC News: El Niño declared in Australia
2. Climate Council: El Niño and Bushfire Risk
3. CSIRO State of the Climate 2024
4. AFAC Bushfire Seasonal Outlook
5. The Guardian: NSW RFS Commissioner Warning
6. Nature: Black Summer Impact Study
7. Australian Parliament: Bushfire Royal Commission Follow-Up
8. Echo Net Daily: Byron Council’s Climate Plea

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