Q&A: How has Australia’s average temperature changed over the past century? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points Australia has warmed by 1.5°C since 1910 Seven of the ten warmest years have occurred since 2013 Minimum temperatures rising faster than maximums Climate change signals now outweigh natural variation Warming linked to extreme weather and bushfires

Australia has warmed faster than the global average, with widespread impacts now visible in every State and Territory.

The Bureau of Meteorology reports that Australia’s average surface temperature has risen by about 1.5°C since 1910¹.

This warming has accelerated in recent decades, with the last ten years ranking among the hottest ever recorded.

Australia’s seven warmest years on record have all occurred since 2013, and 2019 was the hottest year ever documented².

Historical Climate Records

Australia's instrumental temperature record began in 1910, providing a robust century-long dataset.

Analysis shows a steady upward trend, particularly since the 1970s.

The increase in average temperature is most pronounced in the interior and northwest regions of the country, but even cooler coastal zones have warmed significantly³.

Minimum vs Maximum Temperatures

Interestingly, minimum (night-time) temperatures have increased faster than maximum (day-time) temperatures.

This is consistent with global patterns and suggests long-term shifts in atmospheric and land-surface heat retention.

Warmer nights mean less relief from heatwaves, with serious implications for human health, energy demand, and agriculture⁴.

Attribution to Human Activity

Scientists attribute most of this warming to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activity.

The influence of natural climate variability (such as El Niño and La Niña) is now outweighed by anthropogenic signals in temperature data⁵.

Australia’s per capita emissions remain among the highest in the world, contributing to the problem at home and globally.

Impacts and Consequences

The consequences of warming are already being felt.

More frequent and intense heatwaves, longer bushfire seasons, coral bleaching, and declining snow cover are all linked to the rising national average temperature⁶.

For example, the devastating 2019–2020 bushfires were made significantly more likely by climate change-induced heat and drought⁷.

Looking Ahead

If global warming continues unabated, Australia could warm by another 2–4°C by the end of the century.

This would radically alter ecosystems, agriculture, coastal settlements, and the health of communities across the country.

Limiting warming to 1.5°C globally, as per the Paris Agreement, would require deep, immediate cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

Australia’s warming story is a warning — and a call to action.

Footnotes

1. Bureau of Meteorology – Temperature Change Tracker

2. CSIRO – Australia's Warmest Year on Record

3. Climate Change in Australia – Regional Explorer

4. Australian Government – Hot Weather and Health

5. The Conversation – Climate Crisis Facts

6. Climate Council – Heatwaves Report

7. Nature – Climate Change and Australian Bushfires

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