Australians have their say on new climate targets as Coalition prepares for another brawl on net zero - SMH

Sydney Morning Herald - James Massola  Paul Sakkal

Australians have expressed support for a significant increase to the country’s emissions-reduction target as the Climate Change Authority prepares to recommend a much more ambitious 2035 goal.

The latest Resolve Political Monitor survey showed 44 per cent of voters supported the goal of reducing the nation’s carbon emissions by between 65 and 75 per cent by 2035 – a significant increase on the current target of a 43 per cent reduction – by 2030. 

Targets are based on 2005 emissions levels.

Climate Change Authority chairman Matt Kean (left) and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen.
Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Of the 1800 people surveyed exclusively for this masthead, 18 per cent opposed the more ambitious target, and 38 per cent were unsure or undecided. Support from Labor and Greens voters was recorded at 59 and 64 per cent respectively.

The findings among Coalition voters mirrored deep division between the Liberals and Nationals on climate policy, with 32 per cent of Coalition voters backing the notional target, 29 per cent opposing it and the highest proportion, 39 per cent, unsure or undecided.

Climate change advocates support the more ambitious target, while some business groups oppose it.

The Climate Change Authority, chaired by former NSW Liberal treasurer and climate change minister Matt Kean, is in the first half of September expected to recommend a 2035 emissions target to Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen in the 65 to 75 per cent range.

A dispute within the Coalition over climate policy, which resulted in a temporary split between the Liberals and Nationals earlier this year, will be on display when parliament resumes this week.

Labor has taken the rare decision to allow parliament to debate a private member’s bill put forward by former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce that would force Australia to abandon its commitment to net zero emissions by 2050.

The government will allow debate on the bill this week and every week until there are no more MPs who want to speak to it. Governments usually block private member’s bills from being debated, but the Albanese government sees political advantage in allowing debate.

Joyce, who is now a backbench MP, dismissed suggestions that debate on his bill to dump net zero would help Labor by highlighting the divisions within the Coalition, and said he wanted greater scrutiny of climate policies.

“I believe this [net zero] is doing massive damage and hurting poor people. I am very happy for our parliament at least to give some transparency to what I believe is a massive swindle,” he said.

Support for 2035 emissions reduction target

Q: The Climate Change Authority is expected to release a new target for 2035 emissions reductions. 
Most experts think the target will be in the range of a 65-75 per cent reduction. 
Do you support or oppose adopting such a target?

n= 1800, Labor= 643, Coalition= 508, Greens= 189, Other= 326
Numbers may not add to 100 per cent due to rounding.

Source: Resolve Political Monitor

Australia committed in 2015 to the Paris climate change agreement, which binds countries to net zero emissions by 2050 and interim reduction targets every five years, under former Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott.

In 2018 Abbott then urged Australia to quit the Paris deal, but his successors Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison did not do so. Brawling over the Coalition’s policy on climate change has continued since that time.

A swag of current Nationals MPs, including Senator Matt Canavan and former leaders Joyce and Michael McCormack, are now leading a push for the Coalition to dump its commitment to the Paris deal.

Many Liberals support more ambitious climate action and fear further alienating major-city voters – who deserted the Liberal Party in droves at the past two elections – if support for the Paris deal is dropped.

Preferences for climate targets
Q: Both major parties support a ‘net zero’ emissions target for 2050, 
but some in the National Party have said they would like to ditch that target. 
Which of the following do you think is the best approach for Australia to take? 

n=1800

Source: Resolve Political Monitor

Over the weekend, the Queensland Liberal National Party voted to dump support for net zero, following a similar move by the WA Liberals, but the vote is not binding on the federal party.

The Resolve poll showed 48 per cent of marginal-seat voters and 45 per cent of uncommitted voters supported a 65 to 75 per cent emissions target.

The findings on the 2035 targets are contained in the latest Resolve Political Monitor, conducted from August 11 to 17 and have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 per cent.

Earlier this month, in a major speech to the Australasian Emissions Reduction Summit, Bowen foreshadowed a busy period ahead in his climate portfolio that included “receiving and considering the Climate Change Authority advice on our 2035 target, and releasing that target alongside six sector decarbonisation plans and a new National Net Zero Plan”.

“That target will be ambitious and achievable,” he said.

Australia’s current target is a 43 per cent reduction in net emissions by 2030, set against the 2005 emissions level. 

Most experts believe that while Australia will fall short of reaching its 2030 target, a more ambitious 2035 target of 65 to 75 per cent will still be set by the Albanese government. 

A more ambitious target is likely to increase pressure on the government over stubbornly high electricity prices which have not come down substantially, despite a significant increase in cheap renewables.

The Resolve poll also asked voters about the best approach to take to Australia’s current 2030 targets. 

A total of 28 per cent of voters supported keeping the current target of cutting net emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, while 17 per cent supported a more ambitious target and 12 per cent backed rejecting or reducing the 2030 target and concentrating on net zero by 2050.

Another 17 per cent rejected all current emissions targets, while 26 per cent of voters said they were unsure.

Compared with June 2024, when these questions were last put to voters, overall support for the government’s emissions-reduction targets had fallen by a couple of percentage points in most categories, though within the poll’s margin of error in most cases.

On Monday, the Greens will use Senate rules to demand Labor release a tightly held climate change report.

The government has sat on the Climate Risk Assessment for months amid fears that its findings are so confronting that its release needs to be managed sensitively.

The Greens’ Senate order to produce documents expires at 9.30am on Monday, and the government is not expected to release the cabinet-level material.

Greens leader Larissa Waters said Australians had a right to know officials’ concerns about climate change risks before Labor started a debate about climate targets.

“We are extremely concerned about Labor’s decision to hide this assessment for over nine months. It is set to be a damning report which reportedly shows how continued coal and gas approvals are setting our country on a path to climate ruin – with homes within five kilometres of the coast set to be regularly flooded, major drought risks for much of the country, and all coral reefs dead,” she said.

“The government will soon launch its 2035 targets, which will show whether Labor intends to put the climate ahead of coal and gas profits, or whether their donations from fossil fuel corporations have slowed down progress yet again.”

Links

As Coalition battles, government is on track for climate cuts - SMH
Coalition of the unwilling: Climate wars will soon eclipse reunification relief - SMH
Right-wing group targets ‘weakling’ Liberals, as Hastie pushes Ley to dump net zero - SMH
Fiscal restraint or culture wars? Councils winding back climate action - SMH
Emperor penguins and three-metre sea level rises: the cost of Antarctica’s warming - SMH
How do you decarbonise an economy? Line by line, says Matt Kean - SMH

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