28/08/2025

Fighting Climate Change: Australia’s Crossroads in 2025 - Lethal Heating Editor BDA



Key Points
  • Australia’s emissions dropped 1.4% to March 2025, now 28% below 2005 levels [3]
  • Renewables supply over 40% of electricity, target is 82% by 2030 [7]
  • Climate Change Act sets 43% cut by 2030 and net zero by 2050 [1]
  • Over $24.9 billion committed to clean energy and decarbonisation [1]
  • Safeguard Mechanism regulates industrial emissions, offsets remain controversial [2]
  • Grid upgrades and renewable rollout slowed by high costs and planning delays [2]
  • Public strongly supports renewables, coal phase-out, and COP31 bid [4]
  • Australia rated “Insufficient” for limiting warming to 1.5°C [2]
  • Experts recommend 75% emissions reduction by 2035 for credibility [9]

Australia is undergoing a critical phase in its response to climate change, marked by new policy shifts, emissions reductions, and ongoing debates surrounding energy and adaptation.

The latest news reflects increasing action from both the federal government and society, as well as recognition of the urgent need for progress to meet international commitments and protect local environments.[2]

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trends

Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions have shown a downward trend over the past several years, driven primarily by the increasing share of renewables in its energy grid and improvements in energy efficiency.

Data released in August 2025 confirms a 1.4% drop in national emissions for the year to March 2025, reducing totals to 440.2 million tonnes, now 28% below 2005 levels, the baseline for the Paris Agreement.

This aligns the country with its interim target of 43% reduction by 2030 and signals substantial progress towards net zero by 2050.[3][7]

Electricity sector emissions notably declined, linked to the rapid expansion of wind and solar. 

Renewables now supply more than 40% of the grid nationwide, with the government aiming for 82% renewables in the national electricity market by 2030.

However, emissions from transport, agriculture, and some industrial sectors have increased, requiring targeted policy responses such as new vehicle efficiency standards and industrial decarbonisation mechanisms.[8]

Climate Policies and Government Action

The passage of the Climate Change Act (2022) legally set Australia's targets, 43% emissions reduction by 2030 and net zero by 2050.

The Act mandates annual reporting to Parliament and advice from the Climate Change Authority to keep targets science-aligned and responsive to changing conditions.

Recent budgets have allocated billions in climate-related spending, $4.6 billion for climate action out to 2030, plus $24.9 billion more for clean energy and decarbonisation since October 2022.[1]

  • The Rewiring the Nation program (over $20 billion): Upgrades transmission infrastructure, expands Renewable Energy Zones, and modernises grids to accommodate higher renewables.[3]
  • The Household Energy Upgrades Fund ($2 billion): Supports energy-efficient upgrades for homeowners and social housing, helping lower costs and emissions.[3]
  • The Safeguard Mechanism, reformed in 2023, is Australia’s main policy for reducing emissions from high-emitting industrial facilities. It sets declining annual baselines and allows facilities to meet them by reducing emissions or purchasing offsets.
    Critics have argued that over-reliance on offsets, particularly Australian Carbon Credit Units (ACCUs), may not result in significant physical emissions reductions unless offset integrity and usage limits are enforced.[2]

Progress, Challenges, and Shortcomings

Australia’s policy reforms and increased funding have stimulated renewable energy growth, but the transition has faced challenges:

  • Speed of grid upgrades and renewable rollout is hindered by slow planning approvals, higher materials and labour costs, and local resistance to large projects.[2]
  • Investment in large-scale generation slowed in 2023, dropping from $6.5 billion in 2022 to just $1.5 billion, raising concerns about meeting future demand and transition goals.[2]
  • The Climate Change Authority warns that pipeline projects may fall short of target energy shares and recommends expanding programs like the Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) and embedding them in legislation.[2]

Furthermore, some coal and gas production continues to enjoy government support, risking emissions increases and failing to align with 1.5ºC warming thresholds.

The agriculture, buildings, and waste sectors have lagged behind electricity, remaining significant contributors to national emissions.[2]

Public Opinion and International Standing

Public support for climate action remains strong, though somewhat fluctuating: over 80% of Australians back subsidies for renewable energy, about 70% support reducing gas exports, and a majority still favour banning new coal mines, even as these positions see slight declines from previous years.

Australia’s bid to co-host COP31, the United Nations climate summit in 2026, reflects ambitions for global leadership, particularly with its Pacific partners, and enjoys majority public support.[4][5]

International climate monitors rate Australia’s current trajectory as “Insufficient” for limiting warming to 1.5°C, citing ongoing fossil fuel support, slow sectoral reform, and reliance on offsets.

While Australia’s legislated targets are ambitious relative to global peers, further action is needed to close policy gaps and guarantee actual emissions reductions across all sectors.[2]

Adaptation, Resilience, and Outlook

Recognising higher climate risks and increasing extreme events, such as bushfires, droughts, flooding, and heatwaves, Australia has elevated adaptation and disaster resilience in its national strategies.

The National Climate Resilience and Adaptation Strategy highlights the importance of anticipating and managing climate risks, investing in infrastructure, and supporting frontline communities.[3][7]

Australia’s future climate strategy involves ongoing evaluation, updated targets, and policy refinements.

The upcoming targets for 2035 are under deliberation, with experts recommending significantly higher reductions (up to 75%) to remain scientifically credible and economically advantageous.

Continued investment, robust policy, and greater public engagement will be key to reaching net zero, managing risks, and enhancing Australia’s position in the global fight against climate change.[9]

References

  1. Climate Change Authority: Homepage
  2. Australia - Policies & action | Climate Action Tracker
  3. Australian Government Climate Change commitments, policies and ...
  4. 2025 Report: Climate change and energy - Lowy Institute Poll
  5. Climate resolutions for 2025
  6. New data shows emissions down in year to March 2025
  7. Australia on Track to Meet 2030 Climate Targets as emissions fall
  8. Climate Targets in Australia: Fact Sheet

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