Q&A: How is Australia tracking against its Paris Agreement targets and 2030 net-zero commitments? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points Summary
Australia’s emissions targets remain off-track Paris pledges cut emissions 43% by 2030 Fossil fuel exports and subsidies undermine progress Climate policies face legal and scientific scrutiny Renewable energy ramp-up shows potential Net-zero credibility depends on faster cuts now

Australia is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement or 2030 net-zero targets.

Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2024 are projected to fall only 7% below 2005 levels.

This leaves a massive gap to the 43% reduction target by 2030 set under the Paris Agreement. [1]

Despite new policies, emissions from key sectors, especially transport, agriculture, and fossil fuel production, continue to rise. [2]

Meanwhile, Australia remains one of the world's largest exporters of coal and liquefied natural gas. [3]

This contradiction between export growth and domestic reduction undermines climate leadership. [4]

The Policy Problem

The federal government has introduced a Climate Change Act, a National Reconstruction Fund, and modest reforms to the Safeguard Mechanism. [5]

But these changes are not yet sufficient to drive the rapid emissions reductions needed this decade. [6]

Critics point out the $11 billion still given in fossil fuel subsidies each year as a key policy failure. [7]

Climate scientists warn that delay now will require steeper cuts later, and blow Australia’s carbon budget. [8]

Legal and International Pressure

The UN has called out Australia’s continued fossil fuel expansion as inconsistent with its climate obligations. [9]

Legal challenges by First Nations communities and environmental groups are mounting against major gas projects. [10]

Australia’s reputation at global climate summits is being tested by this growing scrutiny. [11]

Glimmers of Progress

Renewables now generate around 40% of electricity nationally, up from 17% in 2017. [12]

Major solar, wind, and battery storage investments are transforming the power grid. [13]

States like South Australia and Tasmania are already close to 100% renewable generation. [14]

But electrification alone will not be enough without deep cuts to fossil fuel use in all sectors. [15]

Conclusion

Australia’s 2030 target is still technically achievable, but only with urgent and systemic policy acceleration. [16]

That means ending fossil fuel subsidies, halting new coal and gas approvals, and investing in decarbonising transport, industry, and agriculture. [17]

Without this shift, Australia risks breaching both its climate commitments and its global credibility. [18]

Footnotes

[1] Climate Change Authority Progress Report 2023

[2] Clean Energy Regulator Emissions Data

[3] IEA: Australia Energy Profile

[4] Climate Council: Credibility Gap Report

[5] Department of Climate Change: Climate Policy Overview

[6] The Conversation: Australia’s Climate Policy Gaps

[7] The Australia Institute: Fossil Fuel Subsidies 2023

[8] IPCC Sixth Synthesis Report

[9] UN Environment Warning on Fossil Expansion

[10] EDO Challenge to Barossa Gas Project

[11] The Guardian: Australia’s COP Scrutiny

[12] OpenNEM: Live Electricity Data

[13] CSIRO Renewable Energy Tracker

[14] ARENA: State-by-State Renewable Stats

[15] Climate Council: Electrify Everything

[16] Nature: Still Time to Act

[17] Grattan: Decarbonising Australian Industry

[18] The Guardian: Is Australia Doing Enough?

Back to top