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By 2050 safer means cooler, higher, and drier underfoot, not risk free
Australians are asking a practical question as the climate warms.
Where will be the safest places to live in 2050.
There is no single answer that fits everyone, yet the science points to clear criteria that improve your odds.
What the climate science says about 2050
Australia has already warmed by about one and a half degrees, which has increased extreme heat, fire weather and marine heatwaves, and these trends will continue through mid century [2][1].
Sea level rise of roughly 20 to 25 centimetres above 2000 levels by 2050 is likely under mainstream scenarios, with regional variation around our coasts [8][3].
Cool season drying is projected for many parts of southern and eastern Australia, which can increase bushfire danger and water stress [2].
Define safer before you choose places
Safer by 2050 means lower exposure to compounding hazards, including extreme heat, bushfire, riverine and flash floods, coastal inundation, drought, and destructive winds or cyclones [1].
It also means access to adaptation, such as reliable water supply, effective planning, resilient buildings, and affordable insurance [4].
Think criteria first, then shortlist locations that match those criteria.
Five evidence based criteria for safer Australian locations
Choose elevation, ideally twenty metres or more above sea level and outside mapped floodplains to reduce coastal and riverine flood risk [6][8].
Prefer cooler climates or highland towns where the number of very hot days is lower, which reduces health risk and building strain during heatwaves [7][9].
Favour landscapes with mixed land use and buffers rather than dense forest at the urban edge, and check local bushfire attack level ratings and fuel maps [2].
Seek towns with upgraded flood mitigation, resilient building standards, and strong emergency services, which materially lower residual risk and insurance costs [4][5].
Avoid cyclone exposed coasts in the tropics, or ensure homes meet the highest wind code standards if you must live there [10].
Shortlist, with reasons rather than rankings
Cooler elevated inland cities in the south east, such as Ballarat and Orange, combine milder summers with distance from the immediate coast and opportunities to avoid floodplains, which reduces heat and coastal risks, although local bushfire planning is still essential [2].
Armidale on the Northern Tablelands sits above one thousand metres, which moderates heat, while elevation helps with flood exposure, though grassfire risk and water security must be considered street by street [2].
Canberra’s elevation and inland location reduce coastal hazards, and extensive planning and emergency capability are strengths, yet extreme heat and bushfire smoke remain real risks that vary by suburb and interface with the bush [2].
Parts of Tasmania offer cooler conditions and distance from cyclones, which lowers heat stress, but bushfire risk is rising and low lying coastal suburbs face sea level and storm surge issues, so choose elevated suburbs with multiple evacuation routes [2][8].
South east South Australia around Mount Gambier combines cooler temperatures and elevation above the coast, while still requiring careful flood and bushfire due diligence at the block scale [2].
In Western Australia, higher inland towns that are not in the drying forest interface can reduce combined heat, fire, and coastal risks, yet the state’s south west drying trend means water security and fire planning remain decisive at the property level [2].
Places that demand extra caution
Low lying coastal strips on the east and north coasts face sea level rise, coastal erosion, storm tide and compound flooding risks that will increase through 2050, which pushes up insurance costs and may limit coverage in some suburbs [8][5].
Floodplains and urban creek catchments in major capitals can experience dangerous flash floods, even far from the sea, and require careful street by street checks against local flood studies and the national flood portal [6].
Tropical cyclone regions of northern Australia carry wind and water risks that can be managed with strict building codes and siting, yet these hazards will continue to generate costly losses across the housing stock to mid century [10].
Insurance is an early warning signal
Insurance affordability stress has risen and now affects a larger share of households, especially in flood and cyclone exposed regions, which is a signal that underlying risk is high today and likely higher by 2050 without adaptation [4].
Independent modelling finds millions of properties at moderate or high climate risk over coming decades, and interactive maps now show electorate level exposure to 2050 under different emissions scenarios, which is a useful screening tool before you buy [5].
Strong building codes and resilient retrofits can materially cut losses each year by billions when widely adopted, which improves liveability and insurability even in higher risk regions [4].
How to choose a safer home, step by step
Screen regions with the State of the Climate and IPCC factsheets to understand broad trends for heat, rainfall, fire weather, and sea level to 2050 [2][1].
Use the Australian Flood Risk Information Portal and your council flood studies to exclude known floodplains and overland flow paths, and ask for historical flood marks where available [6].
Check the Bureau’s Heatwave Service and Australian Climate Service hazard pages to understand local heatwave frequency and community guidance, and plan for passive cooling and shade [7][9].
Consult sea level projection tools to ensure your suburb and evacuation routes are well above likely 2050 sea levels and storm tide allowances, and prefer elevations above twenty metres where practical [8].
Ask for the Bushfire Attack Level for the property and review vegetation buffers, roof design, ember protection, and water storage for firefighting where authorities allow it [2].
A pragmatic shortlist approach for 2050
Start with cooler elevated inland towns within a few hours of capitals for services and jobs, for example Ballarat, Bendigo, Orange, Armidale and selected suburbs of Canberra that are away from the forest edge, while checking local flood and fire maps before any decision [2][6].
Add Tasmania to the shortlist for climate moderated conditions, selecting elevated blocks in cities and towns that are clear of bushfire interface and well above the tidal zone, and confirm levees and evacuation plans where relevant [2][8].
Consider south east South Australia and parts of regional Victoria that meet the elevation and flood exclusion tests, and prefer communities investing in resilient infrastructure and risk informed planning [4][6].
Bottom line
By 2050 Australia will be hotter, with more intense heatwaves, heightened fire weather in many regions, and higher seas.
Safest does not mean safe, it means stacking the odds in your favour by choosing cooler climates, meaningful elevation, and well planned towns with resilient housing and services.
Use the national science as your map, then verify every suburb and every block against local hazard data before you move.
References
- IPCC, AR6 WGI Regional Fact Sheet, Australasia, summary of observed and projected changes. ipcc.ch
- CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, State of the Climate 2024, observed changes and projections for Australia. bom.gov.au and csiro.au
- CSIRO, Future climate and sea level rise context for Australia, regional variation notes. csiro.au
- Insurance Council of Australia, strengthening codes and resilience can save billions, with costs doubling by 2050 without action. insurancecouncil.com.au and supporting NSW Parliament QON. parliament.nsw.gov.au
- Climate Council and Climate Valuation, At Our Front Door report and Climate Risk Map showing 2025 to 2050 electorate level risk. climatecouncil.org.au and map. riskmap.climatecouncil.au
- Geoscience Australia, Australian Flood Risk Information Portal for flood studies and data access. ga.gov.au
- Bureau of Meteorology, Heatwave Service and Knowledge Centre. bom.gov.au
- NASA Sea Level Projection Tool, global and local IPCC AR6 sea level projections for 2050. sealevel.nasa.gov
- Australian Climate Service, heatwaves hazard page and guidance. acs.gov.au
- Bureau of Meteorology Research Report 96 to APRA on acute hazards under a 2050 warming scenario, including cyclone losses and wind risks. bom.gov.au
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