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Global warming is accelerating in 2025, with this year highly likely to rank among the top three hottest ever recorded worldwide1.
Australia’s climate mirrors this global pattern, exhibiting warming at a rate roughly twice the global average2.
Rising greenhouse gas concentrations have driven the surge in temperatures, outpacing earlier projections and contributing to extreme weather events and long-term ecological impacts3.
The Paris Agreement’s landmark goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels faces an imminent challenge, with scientific consensus now indicating a temporary overshoot is increasingly likely within the next decade4.
Without urgent and coordinated global action, these trends threaten not only environmental integrity but also the economy, health, and security, particularly in vulnerable regions like Australia6.
The United Nations and leading scientists are calling for rapid cuts to fossil fuel emissions and a fast-tracked deployment of renewable energy worldwide5.
This article examines the latest climate evidence, its implications for Australia, the status of the Paris Agreement, and what must be done to mitigate the risk of dangerous temperature rises.
The future will be determined by the speed and scale of collective response.
Latest Global Warming Trends
2025 is projected to be either the second or third warmest year ever, continuing a streak of remarkable temperature increases observed since the beginning of the century1.
World Meteorological Organization data shows global average temperatures between January and August 2025 ran 1.42°C above pre-industrial levels1.
This marks the 11th consecutive year of record warmth, putting additional pressure on ecosystems already near breaking point1.
Experts attribute this heat to record-high greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from fossil fuel consumption3.
Carbon dioxide emissions from global fossil fuel use are projected to rise 1.1 percent in 2025 despite international climate pledges3.
So far, 2025 has seen all-time warm temperatures for January and the second or third warmest months for February through June5.
Marine heatwaves, intensified storms, and loss of ice are cascading consequences linked to this warming, with major losses for biodiversity and human livelihoods1.
Australia: On the Frontlines of Climate Change
Australia’s warming trend outpaces much of the world, recording average annual temperature increases over 1.5°C since 19102.
This rate has roughly doubled since the turn of the millennium, raising urgent questions about the country’s resilience to climate shocks2.
Researchers have noted extreme heat events, prolonged bushfire seasons, and severe drought aggravated by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations8.
Recent years have seen record-breaking temperatures, with increasingly frequent events scaling above historical norms5.
Australia’s position as one of the world’s largest coal and gas exporters amplifies its impact and responsibility in the global climate effort10.
Experts warn that climate-related hazards are likely to intensify, producing growing losses for agriculture, marine ecosystems, public health, and infrastructure8.
Paris Agreement: 1.5°C Target Under Threat
The Paris Agreement, signed by nearly 200 countries in 2015, aims to keep global temperature rise “well below” 2°C, pursuing efforts for the safer 1.5°C threshold9.
Current evidence points to a likely, though temporary, overshoot of the 1.5°C threshold in the coming years1.
This is largely due to insufficient collective action since 2015, including missed targets and persistently high fossil fuel emissions4.
Scientists now estimate that annual global temperatures may briefly exceed 1.5°C, but reference to the Paris Agreement typically involves 20-year averages, which have not yet breached this line5.
Despite legal and scientific imperatives, global progress lags, making it increasingly unlikely that emissions will fall sharply enough by the required deadlines to avoid an overshoot4.
Only the most ambitious pathway, with full-scale shifts to renewables and swift emissions cuts, could now limit peak warming to about 1.7°C, dropping back below 1.5°C before 21004.
The Paris Agreement remains the backbone of international climate response, but global ambition must accelerate to match the scale of the crisis4.
What Must be Done: Pathways to Urgent Action
UN leaders and scientists call this a decisive moment for climate action, emphasising the need to slash emissions and phase out fossil fuels with speed and scale unprecedented in history1.
The top priority is a rapid transition to renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, which are now the world’s cheapest forms of power4.
Other urgent steps include boosting energy efficiency, protecting and restoring natural carbon sinks, and deploying negative emissions technologies1.
Australian experts highlight the need to adapt infrastructure, strengthen disaster planning, and reduce vulnerability in regional and Indigenous communities8.
Global emissions must peak by 2025 and fall by at least 43 percent by 2030 to keep hopes alive for the 1.5°C goal9.
Ambitious climate policy, international cooperation, and public engagement are crucial to overcoming the delays and gaps that threaten future stability4.
Reaction and Analysis: Risks of Overshoot
The projected overshoot of the Paris target spells increased risks, particularly for those least equipped to recover from disasters or adapt to cascading changes6.
Economic inequalities are widening as climate change intensifies, with low-income regions and marginalised groups disproportionately exposed to harm6.
Many ecosystem losses, from melting polar ice to coral die-offs, may be irreversible over human timescales once warming exceeds critical thresholds1.
Australia, with its exposure to drought, fires, and heatwaves, is a focal point for these hazards, underlining the need for robust action both domestically and as part of international climate strategy2.
The window for meaningful change remains open, but will close rapidly without immediate, comprehensive action across all sectors1.
Conclusion: The Imperative of Now
Consensus has emerged that temporarily exceeding 1.5°C is almost certain, but this does not make the Paris Agreement’s ambitions obsolete or unattainable4.
Leaders are urged to double down, making the overshoot as brief and limited as possible, so temperatures can fall back below the safety threshold before century’s end1.
The planet’s future depends on urgent emission reductions, expansion of clean energy, and just transition strategies that leave no one behind5.
Australia’s pivotal role requires bold policymaking, sustained investment, and tough choices to secure ecological, economic, and social well-being in a warming world2.
Restoring hope and stability in the climate system demands unwavering commitment from every nation, sector, and community1.
The time to act decisively is now.
References
- 2025 set to be second or third warmest year on record, World Meteorological Organization
- Climate change in Australia, Wikipedia
- Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rise in 2025, CSIRO
- Global Update - November 2025 - Little change in warming projections, Climate Action Tracker
- State of the climate: 2025 on track to be second or third warmest year on record, Carbon Brief
- UN chief urges world leaders to drive down global warming, UN News
- Climate Change – Science Snapshot 2025, Australian Institute of Company Directors
- The Paris Agreement, UNFCCC
- Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Fossil Fuels Rise In 2025, CSIRO
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