Climate change is remaking what Australia eats - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Climate change is already disrupting Australian food production and prices, with risks expected to escalate by 2030, 2050 and 2100.1 Heat, drought, floods and supply-chain failures will hit horticulture, livestock, grains and fisheries differently across regions.3 Remote, Indigenous and low-income communities face the highest risks to food access and affordability.5 National risk assessments warn that primary industries and food are among Australia’s most climate‑exposed systems.6 Adaptation will demand new water, land and biosecurity management, alongside shifts in what is grown where.2 Urban farming, local food hubs and diversified supply chains can improve resilience and food security in cities and regions.8

Within a generation, the climate will change what Australians grow, how much it costs and who can afford to eat well.⁵

Short term shifts to 2030 are already visible on farms in heat‑stressed livestock, more volatile harvests and higher food prices after floods and droughts.⁷

By mid‑century, without strong global emissions cuts and rapid adaptation, staple crops such as wheat and barley are projected to suffer falling yields in many grain regions, while horticulture and irrigated agriculture face tightening water constraints.⁴

By 2100, higher warming scenarios point to deep risks for national food production, labour capacity and supply chains, with flow‑on effects for prices and diet quality.⁵

These impacts will not be felt evenly, with northern Australia, inland drylands, river‑dependent irrigation districts and coastal fisheries among the most exposed systems.²

Remote, Indigenous and low‑income communities, already facing higher rates of food insecurity, are expected to be hit hardest by climate‑driven shocks to availability, access and food quality.⁵

Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment has now placed primary industries and food among the nation’s priority climate risk systems, highlighting escalating threats from heat, drought, bushfires, storms and floods to 2100.⁶

Agricultural groups warn that without accelerated adaptation, climate change will drive higher on‑farm costs, more frequent supply disruptions and long‑term pressure on supermarket shelves and household budgets.⁷

Experts argue that the response must reach far beyond the farm gate, combining policy reform, new technologies, land‑use change and a rapid build‑out of urban and peri‑urban food systems to keep Australia fed in a harsher climate.¹

Short, medium and long‑term pressures

In the near term to 2030, Australian farms are already experiencing more frequent heatwaves, changed rainfall patterns and a higher risk of concurrent droughts and floods, which drive production losses and price spikes after extreme events.²

Analyses of the food supply chain suggest that climate‑related disasters will make temporary shortages and disrupted supermarket deliveries more common, even when national production is sufficient overall.⁸

By around 2050, climate projections for temperate Australia point to continued warming, less cool‑season rainfall and more intense droughts, with modelling for parts of the wheat–sheep belt indicating declines in wheat yields of up to several tens of per cent by 2080 without adaptation measures.⁴

Higher temperatures and changing water availability are expected to erode productivity in many irrigated and rain‑fed systems, unless farmers can shift planting dates, varieties, irrigation efficiency and farm layouts at scale.¹

Looking to 2100, global assessments warn that under high‑emissions scenarios, climate change could significantly reduce agricultural and fisheries productivity in countries that are home to the bulk of the world’s population, including Australia, with impacts on food supply, prices and nutrition.⁵

Heat stress on outdoor work is also projected to cut labour capacity in hot regions, which can increase production costs and crop prices, adding another channel through which climate change affects what consumers pay for food.⁵

Which foods and regions are most at risk

The national climate risk assessment and sector reports highlight livestock, horticulture, broadacre cropping and irrigated agriculture as among the most exposed parts of Australia’s food system.³

Livestock are vulnerable to extreme heat that harms animal welfare and reduces productivity, while pasture growth and feed quality are affected by hotter, drier conditions and more frequent droughts.³

Horticultural industries, including fruit and nuts, face rising risks of sunburn damage during heatwaves, alongside reduced winter chilling in temperate regions and altered flowering and yields in both temperate and tropical crops as cool‑season temperatures increase.³

Studies of Australian mixed crop–livestock systems show that warming of around half to more than one and a half degrees by 2030 can shift the optimal balance between cropping and grazing, encouraging more land to be allocated to pasture in drier regions as an adaptation strategy.¹

South‑eastern grain belts including parts of South Australia have been identified as facing potential wheat yield declines without adaptation by late century, although elevated carbon dioxide can partially offset some losses in some conditions.⁴

Coastal and river‑dependent regions are exposed to compounding pressures from sea‑level rise, ocean warming and changes in runoff, which can affect fisheries, aquaculture and irrigated crops that depend on reliable water flows.²

Who will feel the pain first

Climate change does not affect all households equally, and food security research shows that vulnerable groups typically include small‑scale producers, Indigenous communities and low‑income urban residents.⁵

In Australia, remote and regional communities already face higher food prices and fewer options, so climate‑driven disruptions to roads, freight and local production can quickly translate into shortages and sharp price rises in local shops.⁷

National climate risk assessments identify Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, communities and primary industries as systems that are particularly exposed to worsening climate hazards, including temperature extremes, drought, bushfires and floods.⁶

When extreme events hit multiple regions or happen alongside other shocks, such as pandemics, even robust supply chains can struggle, increasing the risk that remote communities see empty shelves while food remains available elsewhere in the country.⁸

Low‑income households, which already spend a higher share of their budgets on food, are particularly exposed when climate‑related events push up prices for fresh produce, meat and basic staples for months at a time.⁷

Heat, drought, floods, pests and broken links

Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment lists rising temperatures, drought, bushfires, storms, flooding and ocean warming among the priority hazards that will intensify under all plausible climate futures, with direct implications for food and agriculture.⁶

More frequent and severe heat extremes can damage crops, reduce livestock productivity, increase irrigation demand and raise the risk of heat stress for workers across the food system.²

Prolonged droughts reduce soil moisture and streamflows, cut yields and lead to higher input costs, especially for irrigation water, while intense rainfall and floods can cause severe soil erosion, nutrient loss and direct losses of crops and livestock.¹⁰

Climate change is also expected to increase some biosecurity risks, as changing rainfall and temperature patterns alter the survival, reproduction and spread of pests and diseases that affect crops, livestock and fisheries.³

Beyond the farm gate, climate‑driven disruptions to critical infrastructure and supply chains, such as road and rail closures during floods or fires, have already caused local food shortages and are projected to become more frequent as hazards worsen.⁸

Policy, technology and land management

Experts emphasise that limiting global warming through deep emissions cuts is essential to reduce long‑term risks to food systems, but that substantial adaptation is still required to manage the changes already locked in.⁵

International assessments of food, fibre and ecosystem products describe a suite of adaptation options for agriculture, including crop diversification, improved water management, climate‑resilient varieties, agroforestry and more flexible land‑use planning to strengthen resilience.⁵

Australian studies of mixed crop–livestock systems suggest that reallocating land towards livestock and pasture can improve farm profitability in some drier regions under moderate climate change, although this will not be feasible or desirable everywhere.¹

Horticulture reports highlight the need for better soil and water conservation, protection from extreme heat, and infrastructure and management practices that can cope with more intense rainfall and flooding, alongside investments in forecasting and decision tools for farmers.¹⁰

The National Adaptation Plan framework signals that governments are beginning to integrate climate risk into planning for primary industries and food, including actions on water security, infrastructure protection, trade, finance and community resilience.⁶

Urban and peri‑urban food lifelines

While most food is still produced in rural Australia, urban and peri‑urban agriculture is emerging as an important part of climate resilience strategies in cities worldwide, helping diversify supply, shorten supply chains and provide fresh food during disruptions.⁵

Climate risk assessments of food systems underline how concentrated many supply chains have become, with limited storage and few alternative routes, which makes local and regional production hubs more valuable when disasters cut off major transport corridors.⁸

Urban farming technologies such as rooftop gardens, protected cropping, vertical farms and community market gardens can help produce vegetables, herbs and some fruits closer to consumers, reducing transport exposure and, in some cases, providing more controlled growing environments under heat and rainfall extremes.⁵

Peri‑urban food bowls on the fringes of cities, if protected from urban sprawl and supported with water‑efficient infrastructure, can play a key role in buffering metropolitan areas against short‑term shocks and supporting local food hubs and markets.⁸

Building climate‑resilient food systems will also require stronger governance for land use around cities, support for community‑run food projects and better integration of urban and regional planning with national adaptation policies for agriculture and food security.⁶

References

1. Ghahramani A. et al. (2020), Land use change in Australian mixed crop–livestock systems under climate change
2. IPCC AR6 WGII, Chapter 11: Australasia (final draft chapter)
3. Farmers for Climate Action (2025), Time for Action: Climate Risk Assessment Report released
4. Meat & Livestock Australia, Wheat and sheep production in a changing climate
5. IPCC AR6 WGII, Chapter 5: Food, Fibre and Other Ecosystem Products
6. Australian Government, Dashboard – Climate risks to primary industries and food (National Climate Risk Assessment)
7. Farmers for Climate Action (2022), Impacts of climate change on our food supply
8. Climate Council, Feeding a Hungry Nation: Climate change, food and farming in Australia
9. Clayton Utz (2025), Australia’s first National Climate Risk Assessment report and National Adaptation Plan
10. Hort Innovation, Australian horticulture’s response to climate change and variability

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