Why the world’s food system is at risk and what a renewable future could look like - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

The modern food system is highly efficient yet structurally fragile, with climate shocks, water stress, and market volatility capable of triggering cascading failures.1 Regions already facing water scarcity, heat extremes, and weak governance, including parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, are most exposed to food disruption.2 Climate change acts as a threat multiplier, amplifying risks created by biodiversity loss, fossil fuel dependence, monocultures, and concentrated supply chains.3 Regenerative and renewable food systems, built around healthy soils, diversified production, and lower inputs, can boost resilience and cut emissions.4 Benefits of a global shift include improved public health, rural employment, biodiversity recovery, and more stable climates and food prices.5 The next decade is critical, with planners needing to invest in water‑resilient agriculture, social protection, and governance reforms to avoid systemic food crises.6

The world’s food system feeds more people than at any point in history, yet scientists warn its underlying structures are fragile in a hotter, more unequal century.¹

Climate change, water stress, soil degradation, and dependence on fossil fuels and imported inputs are converging to raise the risk of systemic disruption, rather than isolated harvest failures.³

At the same time, economic shocks, conflicts, and pandemics have shown how quickly global supply chains can seize up, pushing up prices and deepening hunger for millions.⁷

UN agencies estimate that hundreds of millions of people are already food insecure, with climate extremes one of the major drivers of recent acute hunger emergencies.⁸

Regions that rely heavily on food imports, or on a narrow range of climate‑sensitive crops, are particularly exposed to price spikes and trade disruptions.²

For Australia, which exports large volumes of wheat, beef, and dairy, mounting climate and water risks overseas also have implications for trade, regional stability, and humanitarian obligations.⁹

Scientists and policy analysts increasingly argue that a shift towards regenerative and “renewable” food systems, which restore ecosystems rather than deplete them, is essential for long‑term food security.⁴

These models emphasise soil health, diversified cropping, lower fossil fuel inputs, and fairer access to land and markets, while still needing to deliver affordable, nutritious diets.¹⁰

The choices governments, investors, and communities make in the next five to ten years will shape whether the food system bends under pressure or breaks in ways that are difficult to reverse.⁶

For regional planners and policymakers, the question is less whether change is coming, and more how to steer it towards resilience, equity, and climate stability.¹¹

The fragility of the modern food system

Researchers increasingly describe the global food system as a complex, tightly coupled network, where shocks in one part can cascade rapidly through prices, trade, and politics.¹

Industrial agriculture has delivered high yields through synthetic fertilisers, pesticides, irrigation, and long supply chains, but at the cost of degraded soils, biodiversity loss, and high greenhouse gas emissions.³

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that agriculture, forestry, and other land use contribute about a fifth of global emissions, binding food production tightly to the climate crisis it must now withstand.¹²

At the same time, crop and livestock production rely heavily on fossil fuels for fertilisers, machinery, processing, refrigeration, and transport, making food prices sensitive to energy markets and geopolitical tensions.¹³

Economic analysis of recent crises has shown how export restrictions by major producers, or conflict in key grain regions, can quickly reduce availability on world markets and push millions towards hunger.⁷

This structural dependence on a few staple grains, a handful of global trading companies, and vulnerable fossil fuel‑based inputs underpins concerns about systemic rather than localised food risk.¹⁴

Who is most vulnerable – and why

Vulnerability to food system disruption is shaped by climate exposure, water availability, soil health, trade dependence, inequality, and governance capacity.²

Studies identify parts of sub‑Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia as hotspots where high climate risk intersects with high rates of poverty and food import dependence.²

Agriculture accounts for roughly 70 per cent of global freshwater withdrawals, and regions already facing physical water scarcity, such as North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula, are particularly exposed to crop failure and conflict over water allocation.¹⁵

Water‑resilience research warns that, without improved governance, the gap between water supply and demand is likely to widen significantly in coming decades, especially where population is growing quickly.¹⁶

Small island developing states and low‑lying delta regions face additional risks from sea level rise, saltwater intrusion into farmland, and cyclone‑driven flooding, which can damage both production and infrastructure.¹⁷

For many low‑income countries, limited fiscal space, weak social protection systems, and restricted access to borrowing make it harder to absorb price shocks or invest in adaptation, increasing the risk of humanitarian crises and instability.¹⁸

Climate change as a threat multiplier

Climate change does not act in isolation; it intensifies existing stresses in food, water, and ecological systems, turning what might have been manageable shocks into cascading crises.³

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports high confidence that heat extremes, heavy rainfall, and agricultural droughts have already increased in frequency and intensity in many regions, affecting crop yields and livestock health.³

Maize, wheat, and rice yields have shown region‑specific declines linked to observed warming, particularly in lower‑latitude regions, while marine and inland fisheries are under pressure from warming waters and ocean acidification.¹⁹

Biodiversity loss, including the decline of pollinators and soil organisms, further undermines resilience, reducing the ability of ecosystems to buffer extreme events and recover from disturbance.²⁰

Monoculture farming systems, which rely on a narrow set of high‑yielding varieties, can produce efficiently under stable conditions but are more vulnerable to pests, diseases, and climatic extremes than more diverse landscapes.²¹

Financialisation and concentration in global supply chains, where a small number of firms dominate trade and input provision, can amplify volatility, as disruptions or speculation in these nodes translate quickly into price spikes for consumers.¹⁴

Consequences of systemic food failure

When food systems falter, the effects ripple through human health, ecosystems, and political stability, often in ways that reinforce one another.²²

Modern analyses of famine emphasise that mass hunger is typically driven less by absolute food shortage than by conflict, economic collapse, and state failure that prevent people from accessing available food.²¹

Historical episodes, from the Bengal famine of the 1940s to more recent crises in the Horn of Africa and Yemen, show how war, trade disruption, and policy choices can turn climate shocks into catastrophic mortality.²³

Food price spikes have been linked with social unrest, including during the period before the Arab uprisings, highlighting the political sensitivity of bread, fuel, and basic staples.²⁴

For non‑human animals and ecosystems, food system breakdown can mean habitat conversion as desperate communities clear more land, over‑fish coastal waters, or exploit wildlife to meet immediate needs.²⁵

In extreme cases, combined climate and food stress can trigger migration within and across borders, putting further pressure on urban areas and neighbouring states and complicating humanitarian response.¹⁸

What a regenerative or “renewable” food system looks like

Regenerative and so‑called renewable food systems aim not just to reduce harm but to restore soil, water, and biodiversity while maintaining viable livelihoods and adequate food supply.⁴

The FAO describes regenerative agriculture as a holistic approach that improves water and air quality, enhances ecosystem biodiversity, produces nutrient‑dense food, and stores carbon, while remaining economically viable for farmers.²⁶

Common practices include reduced or no‑till farming, cover cropping, diverse crop rotations, integration of trees and livestock, and reduced reliance on synthetic fertilisers and pesticides.⁴

Evidence from field trials and meta‑analyses suggests that improving soil organic matter can increase water infiltration and retention, buffer crops against drought, and in some cases maintain or improve yields over time.²⁷

Regenerative systems can reduce emissions by sequestering carbon in soils and biomass and by lowering energy‑intensive input use, though sequestration potential depends on local conditions and may saturate over time.²⁷

More broadly, regenerative food systems extend beyond the farm gate, encompassing shorter supply chains, local and regional markets, equitable access to land and finance, and dietary shifts towards less resource‑intensive foods.²³

Technologies, practices, and social innovations

Technologies central to a renewable food transition range from on‑farm practices to digital tools, irrigation technologies, and new forms of governance and finance.¹⁰

Precision agriculture, solar‑powered irrigation, drought‑tolerant crop varieties, and improved water storage can help farmers use inputs more efficiently and adapt to variable rainfall, including in low‑ and middle‑income countries.²⁸

Social innovations such as farmer cooperatives, community‑supported agriculture, public procurement for healthy and sustainable food, and Indigenous land and water management knowledge are also seen as key to resilience.²⁹

Analysts caution that while many regenerative practices are technically scalable, access to finance, secure land tenure, extension services, and data often determine whether smallholders and poorer regions can take them up.³⁰

Corporate interest in regenerative agriculture is growing, partly driven by climate and nature‑related disclosure rules, but raises questions about who captures the benefits of carbon credits and other payments for ecosystem services.⁴

Researchers argue that without safeguards and participation, there is a risk that regenerative branding could entrench existing power imbalances rather than deliver a more equitable food system.²⁹

Broader benefits of a renewable food transition

A transition to regenerative and renewable food systems could deliver wide co‑benefits for health, employment, biodiversity, and climate stability, in addition to nutrition.⁵

Public health research links current diets, dominated in many countries by ultra‑processed foods and cheap fats and sugars, with rising rates of obesity, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers.³¹

Shifting towards diets rich in whole grains, legumes, fruits, and vegetables, produced in agroecological systems, is associated with lower environmental footprints and better long‑term health outcomes at the population level.³¹

Rural economies could gain from more labour‑intensive regenerative practices, value‑added processing, and local food enterprises, although this requires supportive policy to ensure decent work and fair wages.⁵

Conserving and restoring habitats within agricultural landscapes, such as riparian zones, native vegetation, and wetlands, can improve water quality, support pollinators, and store carbon, contributing to national biodiversity and climate goals.²⁰

By reducing exposure to climate shocks, input price volatility, and degraded soils, regenerative food systems may also help stabilise food prices and reduce the risk of social unrest linked to food insecurity.²²

Barriers, pathways, and lessons from history

Despite growing interest, political, cultural, and institutional barriers continue to slow the shift towards more regenerative food systems.¹⁰

These include subsidies that favour input‑intensive monocultures, trade rules that encourage export‑oriented commodity production, corporate concentration, and limited recognition of Indigenous and local knowledge in formal policy.¹⁴

Researchers argue that governance for food system resilience requires stronger water institutions, social protection, early warning systems, and participatory decision‑making from local to global scales.¹⁶

Historical episodes, such as the US Dust Bowl of the 1930s, show that policy can drive both degradation and recovery, with conservation programs, land retirement, and new farming practices helping to restore damaged landscapes over time.³²

However, other crises, including famines in colonial India and conflicts in modern war economies, underline that without accountable institutions and attention to rights and distribution, food system reforms can leave the poorest behind.²¹

Experts emphasise that the risks of delay are substantial, because continued investment in high‑emission, high‑input systems can lock in infrastructure and practices that are difficult to change before climate impacts intensify.⁶

In contrast, early action on climate mitigation, water‑resilient agriculture, and social safety nets can reduce long‑term costs and create space for more orderly transitions when shocks do occur.²⁵

What planners and policymakers must do now

Over the next five years, regional planners and policymakers face a narrow but critical window to reduce long‑term food system risk by aligning climate, water, and agricultural policies with resilience goals.¹⁶

Key priorities identified in the literature include investing in water‑resilient infrastructure and governance, reorienting subsidies and public procurement towards regenerative and diversified production, and strengthening social protection to cushion vulnerable households from shocks.²⁵

Building robust early warning systems that integrate climate, market, and conflict data, and embedding local and Indigenous knowledge in planning, can improve the ability of communities and governments to anticipate, rather than simply react to, emerging food crises.¹⁸

Ultimately, evidence suggests that reducing long‑term risk will require treating food not just as a commodity but as part of a shared ecological and social system, and reshaping institutions accordingly.²²

References

1. Feast and Famine: The Global Food Crisis – Origins, Ohio State University
2. Global Water Governance and Food System Transformation – PRISM
3. IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land
4. What Are Regenerative Food Systems? – The Nature Conservancy
5. FAO, The Future of Food and Agriculture: Trends and Challenges
6. Elevating the role of water resilience in food system transformations – Matthews et al., 2022
7. World Bank, Food Security Update
8. FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, WHO, The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023
9. ABARES, Agricultural Commodities and Trade Outlook
10. FAO, Transforming agrifood systems: A synthesis of country pathways
11. UNEP, Food Systems and the Environment – Policy Options
12. 12 IPCC AR6 Working Group III, Mitigation of Climate Change
13. 13 International Energy Agency, Agriculture and Energy
14. UNCTAD, Trade and Environment Review: Wake up before it is too late
15. UN World Water Development Report: Nature‑Based Solutions for Water
16. 16 Water Governance for Climate‑Resilient Food Systems – IWMI and partners
17. IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate
18. IPCC AR6 Working Group II, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
19. IPCC SRCCL, Chapter 5: Food Security
20. IPBES Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
21. Hunger in global war economies: understanding the decline – de Waal, 2024
22. Stockholm Resilience Centre, Planetary boundaries research on food and stability
23. Friends of the Earth, Food and Climate Justice (global food systems overview)
24. Food Prices and Political Instability – IFPRI
25. Friedlingstein et al., Soil and climate feedbacks in food systems – Nature Sustainability
26. The Benefits of Regenerative Agriculture – SLR (citing FAO definition)
27. Montgomery, Soil health and the sustainability of agriculture – Nature Sustainability
28. CGIAR, Climate‑Smart Agriculture
29. IPES‑Food, Towards a Common Food Policy for the EU
30. World Bank, Scaling up Climate‑Smart Agriculture
31. The Lancet Commission on Obesity, Undernutrition and Climate Change
32. US National Park Service, The Dust Bowl

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