| Key Points |
|
Australia is experiencing an escalating cascade of climate-driven extremes as 2026 begins, with the nation's fourth-warmest year on record in 2025 setting the stage for dangerous heatwaves, destructive fires and devastating floods.
The convergence of record temperatures, intensifying fire weather and extreme rainfall events across the continent reflects the fingerprints of human-induced climate change, as documented by official meteorological data and peer-reviewed scientific research.
In January 2026, a severe heatwave is gripping southern and eastern Australia, with inland New South Wales experiencing temperatures in the mid-40s, whilst December 2025 saw destructive fires claim lives and homes across NSW and Tasmania.
Northern Queensland has simultaneously endured catastrophic flooding, with some locations recording more than 1,350 millimetres of rainfall in just two weeks during late December 2025 and early January 2026.
These events are occurring against a backdrop of long-term warming, with Australia's climate having warmed by 1.51°C since 1910, and the intensity of short-duration extreme rainfall increasing by at least 10 per cent in recent decades.
Scientific attribution studies have established that climate change has more than doubled the frequency of forest fires, extended fire seasons and intensified dangerous fire weather across southern Australia.
Rising sea levels, which have increased by approximately 22 centimetres around Australia since 1900, are compounding coastal and estuarine flooding risks during extreme rainfall events.
Heatwaves and Record Temperatures
Australia recorded its fourth-warmest year in 2025, with the national annual average temperature reaching 1.23°C above the 1961–1990 average, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.1
The national average maximum temperature was 1.48°C above the 1961–1990 average, equal fourth-warmest on record, whilst the average minimum temperature was 0.97°C above average, eighth-warmest on record.1
Every month in 2025 recorded above-average temperatures, with January, February, March and October ranking within the top five warmest for their respective months.1
Between January and March, and again between October and December 2025, large parts of Australia experienced heatwave conditions reaching extreme severity at times.7
South Australia and Western Australia both recorded their third-warmest years in 2025.7
The long-term trend is unequivocal: Australia's climate has warmed by an average of 1.51°C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950.8
Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than preceding decades, and eight of the nine warmest years on record have occurred since 2013.8
This warming trend has led to a marked increase in extreme heat events, with very high monthly maximum temperatures that occurred just 2 per cent of the time in 1960–1989 now occurring around 12 per cent of the time.9
Australia's oceans have also warmed significantly, with sea surface temperatures increasing by 1.08°C on average since 1900.10
In early January 2026, Australia is experiencing one of the most significant heatwaves in recent years, described by senior meteorologists as the worst burst of heat for south-eastern Australia since the summer of 2019–2020.3
Severe heatwave warnings have been issued for parts of New South Wales, Victoria, Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory.3
Inland areas of NSW are experiencing temperatures in the mid-40s, with some locations such as parts of northern Victoria, south-western NSW and eastern South Australia reaching temperatures up towards 46°C or even 47°C.11
Adelaide reached 42°C, Melbourne reached 42°C, and Sydney is forecast to reach 39–40°C, with western suburbs heading into the low-to-mid 40s.3
Minimum temperatures are also staying high, with some areas sitting 6 to 12 degrees above the usual January overnight lows, making it harder for homes and people to cool down before the next day starts.11
The Bureau of Meteorology has warned that extreme heatwaves can be dangerous for everyone, with severe heatwaves particularly dangerous for older people, babies, children, pregnant and breastfeeding women, people with medical conditions and people who are unwell.12
Wildfires and Fire Weather
Human-driven climate change has driven a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of Australian forest fires over the past three decades, with climate identified as the overwhelming factor driving fire activity, according to research published by CSIRO and collaborators in Nature Communications.2
The study, combining 32 years of satellite data and 90 years of ground-based datasets, found that the mean number of years since the last fire has decreased consecutively in each of the past four decades, whilst the frequency of forest megafire years has markedly increased since 2000.2
Over the last 90 years, three of the four megafire years have occurred after 2000.2
The main driver for the growing areas burnt by fire is Australia's increasingly severe fire weather, accounting for 75 per cent of the variation observed in the total annual area of forest fires.13
Fire weather conditions have become increasingly more dangerous, with increased risk factors associated with pyroconvection, including fire-generated thunderstorms, and increased ignitions from dry lightning.2
The frequency and intensity of heatwaves has increased in recent years, and climate projections suggest heatwaves will continue to become more frequent and intense, extending the period of time favourable for continuous fire spread into the evening and overnight.14
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report states that the frequency of extreme fire weather days has increased, and the fire season has become longer since 1950 at many locations, with the intensity, frequency and duration of fire weather events projected to increase throughout Australia.14
In December 2025, dozens of bushfires raged across New South Wales and Tasmania, with a NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service firefighter tragically losing his life, 16 homes destroyed in the NSW town of Koolewong, four in Bulahdelah, and 19 destroyed in Tasmania's Dolphin Sands.15
Temperatures reached 41°C in Koolewong, with strong winds fanning the fires and making them hard to suppress.15
The speed and intensity of these fires took many by surprise, with dead fuel moisture content falling to critically dry levels below 7 per cent in both Koolewong and Bulahdelah on 6 December.15
Since the 2019–2020 Black Summer megafires, Australia has experienced multiple wet years, with vegetation regrowing strongly, but recent months of below-average rainfall have dried out many landscapes, resulting in dry fuels ready to burn.15
Recovery of fuel loads, combined with below-average rainfall in eastern NSW projected to continue throughout December, indicated that more fires could eventuate during the 2025–2026 season.16
During the January 2026 heatwave, fire danger ratings are sitting in the high to extreme range across southern Australia, with the combination of very hot air, low humidity and stronger winds creating conditions where bushfires can spread extremely quickly and be very difficult or impossible to control and contain.3
A recent report from former Australian fire chiefs and the Climate Council has warned that at least 6.9 million Australians living on the expanding fringes of capital cities could be at risk from urban fires supercharged by climate pollution.17
Floods and Rainfall Intensity
Despite Australia's natural climate variability, observations show an increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events, with the intensity of short-duration extreme rainfall events having increased by around 10 per cent or more in some regions in recent decades, with the largest increases typically observed in the north of the country.4
Daily rainfall totals associated with thunderstorms have increased since 1979, particularly in northern Australia, primarily due to an increase in the intensity of rainfall per storm.18
Climate model simulations project that heavy rainfall events will further intensify during the 21st century, with the rate of intensification proportional to the rate of global warming.4
The intensification of heavy rainfall is attributed to warmer air being able to hold more water vapour, with moisture in the atmosphere increasing by 7 per cent per degree of warming, causing an increased likelihood of heavy rainfall events even in areas where average rainfall is likely to decrease.18
In late December 2025 and early January 2026, northern Queensland experienced catastrophic flooding as deep tropical moisture interacted with a monsoon low and an embedded trough over western Queensland, whilst enhanced onshore winds along the north-eastern coast delivered heavy to intense rainfall and thunderstorms.5
The highest fortnightly total was 1,353.8 millimetres at Cowley Beach (Defence) in Queensland, with most of this rainfall occurring in the week ending 5 January 2026.5
The highest daily total was 414.0 millimetres at Innisfail Wharf Alert in Queensland in the 24 hours to 9 am on 31 December 2025.5
Weekly rainfall totals of 50 to 400 millimetres were recorded in large parts of northern Queensland, with more than 500 millimetres falling along the north-eastern Queensland coast.19
Towns such as Bingil Bay recorded around 1.1 metres of rain in a four-day span, and Innisfail saw daily rainfall totals exceeding 400 millimetres, the highest since 1999.20
Widespread flooding triggered mass evacuation orders in Queensland's coastal regions, with major flood warnings issued for the Flinders, Cloncurry, Mulgrave, Georgina, Norman and Diamantina rivers.20
At least one person was confirmed dead as a result of the extreme weather, with emergency services responding to dozens of calls for assistance across flood-affected areas.20
The monsoon trough was situated over northern Australia for the first part of the fortnight ending 5 January 2026, with the northern Australian monsoon onset, as measured at Darwin, occurring on 23 December 2025.5
Queensland's national average annual rainfall in 2025 was 31 per cent above average, the wettest year since 2011, contributing to above-average soil moisture and elevated water storage levels in northern regions.7
Whilst natural climate variability plays a significant role in Australian rainfall patterns, with influences from La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole, the observed increase in heavy rainfall intensity is consistent with climate change projections and the fundamental physics of a warming atmosphere.4
Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding
Sea levels around Australia have risen approximately 22 centimetres since 1900, with half of this rise occurring since 1970.6
This rise is primarily attributed to thermal expansion of warming ocean waters and the melting of land-based ice from glaciers and ice sheets.6
Around the Australian coastline, sea level has risen relative to the land throughout the 20th century, with a faster rate since 1993, partly as a result of natural climate variability.21
Rates of sea-level rise since 1993 have been above the global average around many parts of the Australian coastline, particularly in the north and south-east.22
Rising sea levels are worsening coastal and estuarine flooding during extreme rainfall events and storm surges, with the combination of high water levels, storm surges and waves causing significant coastal erosion and inundation.23
For the east and west coasts of Australia, extreme sea levels of a particular height are now exceeded three times more often in the second half of the 20th century compared to the first half.21
This effect will continue with more than a ten-fold increase in the frequency of extreme sea levels by 2100 at many locations and a much increased risk of coastal flooding and erosion, even for a low emissions pathway.21
Torres Strait Islander and coastal Indigenous communities are already feeling the impacts of sea-level rise, with several inundation events occurring on low-lying islands since 2005, threatening inhabited areas, graves and other significant cultural sites.22
Sea-level rise poses major threats to mangroves and coastal ecosystems, valuable infrastructure and development in coastal regions, with substantial economic implications for coastal communities.22
Scientific Attribution and Future Outlook
The convergence of heatwaves, fires and floods in Australia during 2025 and early 2026 reflects the established scientific understanding that climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events.
Attribution studies have found that human-caused climate change made south-eastern Australia's devastating wildfires during 2019–2020 at least 30 per cent more likely to occur, with the extremity of the associated heatwave about 10 times more likely now than in 1900.24
Under most climate change scenarios, fire weather is predicted to keep worsening, with the frequency of forest megafires likely to continue under future projected climate change.13
The warming in Australia is consistent with global trends, with the degree of warming similar to the overall average across the world's land areas, and all changes are consistent with predictions from climate change scenarios that severe fire weather conditions will intensify due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions.13
For heavy rainfall, whilst interannual variability in Australia is high and linked to major climate influences, climate model simulations consistently project that heavy rainfall events will further intensify during the 21st century proportional to the rate of global warming.4
Sea-level rise will continue for decades even with deep cuts to emissions, with 21st century sea-level rise for Australia likely to be close to the global average rise.21
Conclusion and Policy Implications
The escalating extremes documented across Australia in 2025 and early 2026 underscore the urgency of comprehensive climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Regional planners and policymakers must act decisively within the next five years to reduce long-term risk by implementing several critical measures.
First, hazard-reduction burning programmes and Indigenous cultural burning practices must be significantly expanded and integrated as core strategy, particularly in areas with high fuel loads and vulnerable communities, whilst ensuring adequate resources and personnel for emergency services.
Second, building codes in fire-prone areas must be strengthened and enforced to ensure bushfire-resistant construction, with particular attention to homes in peri-urban interfaces where forests make up more than 60 per cent of surrounding neighbourhoods.
Third, flood-resilient infrastructure and early warning systems require substantial investment, particularly in northern Queensland and other regions experiencing intensifying rainfall, with clear communication of forecast impacts to enable communities to prepare effectively.
Fourth, coastal management strategies must account for accelerating sea-level rise and increased storm surge frequency, including managed retreat from the most vulnerable low-lying areas and protection of critical infrastructure.
Fifth, urban planning must address the growing risks from extreme heat, including cooling centres, green infrastructure and water-sensitive urban design to reduce urban heat island effects.
Finally, emissions reduction remains paramount, as every increment of additional warming amplifies the frequency and severity of all these extremes, making adaptation progressively more difficult and costly.
For authoritative data and regional forecasts, policymakers and communities should consult the Bureau of Meteorology's climate monitoring services and the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology State of the Climate 2024 report, which provides comprehensive analysis of Australia's changing climate and projected future trends.
References
- Bureau of Meteorology – Annual Statement 2025
- Nature Communications – Multi-decadal increase of forest burned area in Australia is linked to climate change
- AAP News – Worst since Black Summer: heatwave, bushfire threat
- CSIRO – Australia's changing climate
- Bureau of Meteorology – Tropical Climate Update archive
- CSIRO – State of the Climate 2024
- Bureau of Meteorology – Bureau releases summary of Australia's climate in 2025
- Bureau of Meteorology – State of the Climate 2024: Australia's changing climate
- AdaptNSW – Australian climate change observations
- CSIRO – State of the Climate 2024: Australia is enduring harsher fire seasons
- Pedestrian TV – Most Significant In Years: How This Week's Heatwave Is Roasting Half The Country
- Bureau of Meteorology – Heatwave warning
- CSIRO – Australia's Black Summer of fire was not normal – and we can prove it
- International Journal of Wildland Fire – Future fire events are likely to be worse than climate projections indicate
- PreventionWeb – Primed to burn: what's behind the intense, sudden fires burning across New South Wales and Tasmania
- Scimex – Expert Reaction: Bushfires burning across NSW and Tasmania
- Climate Council – Experts Sound Alarm for Australia on Urban Fire Risk like LA
- Bureau of Meteorology – State of the Climate 2024: Heavy rainfall events
- Bureau of Meteorology – Australian rainfall update
- World Socialist Web Site – Australia: At least 1 dead as heavy rain and floods hit northern Queensland
- Australian Academy of Science – How are sea levels changing?
- Australian State of the Environment – Sea level rise in Australia
- UNSW Newsroom – How rising sea levels will affect our coastal cities and towns
- Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences – Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change
No comments :
Post a Comment