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Heating the planet, one barrel and tonne at a time
Burning coal, oil and gas is still pushing global greenhouse gas emissions to record highs, even as the science makes clear that most fossil fuels must stay in the ground to avoid catastrophic climate change.2
Fossil fuels account for nearly 90% of carbon dioxide released by human activity, driving an “enhanced greenhouse effect” where extra heat is trapped in the atmosphere and oceans.1
That additional heat is already supercharging deadly heatwaves, extreme rainfall, coral bleaching and bushfires, with impacts felt from Chinese manufacturing hubs to Indian farms and American suburbs.5
Responsibility for these emissions is highly concentrated, with ten economies led by China, the United States, India, the European Union and Russia producing the majority of global fossil‑fuel CO₂ each year.1
These same countries are also central to solutions, because their policies on coal power, oil demand, gas infrastructure and industry will set the pace of the global energy transition this decade.4
Recent data suggests global demand for fossil fuels could peak before 2030 under current policies, but not fall fast enough to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C temperature goal.4
The choices these major emitters make now – whether to double down on fossil fuels or accelerate clean alternatives – will shape social stability, economic resilience and ecological survival far beyond their borders.5
The big ten: who burns the most
Recent emissions inventories show that China, the United States, India, the EU‑27, Russia, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and South Korea are the world’s largest national greenhouse gas emitters, dominated by fossil fuel combustion.1
Together, these ten economies account for well over half of global fossil fuel consumption and nearly two‑thirds of greenhouse gas emissions, despite representing a smaller share of the world’s population.1
China alone is responsible for more annual CO₂ from fossil fuels than any other country, driven by coal‑fired power, heavy industry and rising oil use for transport.9
The United States follows as the largest historical emitter, with high per‑capita oil and gas consumption, particularly in transport, buildings and electricity generation, although coal has declined.9
India’s emissions are growing rapidly from a lower base, as coal still dominates power generation and energy demand rises with industrialisation and urbanisation.9
The European Union’s emissions are falling overall, but gas‑fired power, industry and transport still produce substantial CO₂, and several member states remain reliant on imported fossil fuels.7
Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran stand out as major fossil fuel exporters whose domestic economies and state budgets are deeply tied to oil and gas production and associated emissions.5
Are the biggest emitters changing course
All of the top‑emitting countries have signed the Paris Agreement and pledged to reduce emissions, yet their actual policies on coal, oil and gas vary widely in ambition and credibility.5
China has committed to peak CO₂ emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, has already met its 2030 non‑fossil electricity target early and is adding record amounts of solar and wind capacity, but it is also still approving and building new coal power plants.10
The United States has legislated major clean energy subsidies and standards through laws such as the Inflation Reduction Act, which are expected to cut power sector emissions and accelerate electric vehicles, yet federal leasing for oil and gas and continued exports undermine a full phase‑out trajectory.10
India has expanded renewables rapidly and announced a net zero target for 2070, alongside initiatives for green hydrogen and energy efficiency, but it continues to rely on coal for grid stability and affordable power for development.9
The European Union has adopted a 2040 climate target, strengthened its emissions trading scheme and set deadlines to phase out unabated coal in many member states, though gas infrastructure and political backlash threaten to slow reforms.7
Japan and South Korea have pledged carbon neutrality by mid‑century and are tightening electricity plans, joining international alliances to phase down coal, while still banking on technologies such as co‑firing ammonia and hydrogen in fossil plants.1
Major producers like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Indonesia continue to plan new oil, gas or coal projects, even as international institutions and civil society call for fossil fuel subsidy reform and clear end dates for extraction and combustion.5
What fossil fuel demand could look like in 2030
Energy outlooks from the International Energy Agency project that under today’s stated policies, global demand for coal, oil and gas will peak before 2030, largely due to rapid growth in renewables, electric vehicles and efficiency.4
In China, coal use is expected to plateau and then gradually decline this decade as solar, wind and nuclear expand, even though some new coal plants are being built for grid security and industrial demand.4
Oil demand in advanced economies including the United States, the European Union, Japan and South Korea is forecast to fall by 2030 as electric vehicles gain market share and fuel economy standards tighten.14
By contrast, oil and gas demand is projected to remain comparatively resilient in producer economies such as Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iran, unless global climate policy and clean technology deployment move far faster than current trajectories.17
India and Indonesia are expected to see continued growth in energy demand overall, with scenarios showing coal and gas use peaking later if clean energy finance, technology transfer and grid upgrades fall short.8
Across all major emitters, announced pledges that fully implement net zero targets would cut fossil fuel use more sharply by 2030, but most countries have yet to align their detailed plans, investment decisions and subsidy regimes with those goals.4
The gap between declared ambition and concrete policy on fossil fuels will determine whether the world overshoots 1.5C in the early 2030s or manages a rapid, more orderly decline in emissions.9
Social and economic faultlines
The social consequences of continued fossil fuel use in the top‑emitting countries are already visible in worsening heat stress, lost labour productivity, food insecurity and mounting health impacts from air pollution.3
Farm workers in India and Indonesia are experiencing more days of dangerous heat and humidity, which reduce working hours and incomes while increasing the risk of heatstroke and kidney disease.3
In the United States, heatwaves and wildfire smoke linked to fossil fuel‑driven warming are straining health systems, raising mortality and adding billions of dollars in economic losses each year.6
China’s manufacturing regions and coastal cities face rising climate‑related disruption from typhoons, floods and droughts, threatening supply chains that serve global markets.9
Communities near coal mines, oilfields and gas export hubs from Russia to Saudi Arabia and Iran remain economically dependent on fossil fuel jobs and royalties, which exposes them to volatility as global demand shifts.5
Managing a just transition – where workers, regions and low‑income households are supported through reskilling, social protection and public investment – has become a central political challenge in each of these economies.8
Without deliberate planning, the eventual decline of fossil fuel industries could deepen inequality and trigger social unrest, especially in regions that lack economic diversification beyond coal, oil or gas.5
Ecological and cultural costs of endless combustion
Ecosystems in the major emitting countries are already under acute stress from the warming and weather extremes driven by continued fossil fuel combustion.3
Rising temperatures and changing rainfall are damaging forests, wetlands and croplands across China, India, Russia and the United States, increasing the risk of fire, pest outbreaks and crop failure.9
Ocean warming and acidification, fuelled by CO₂ from fossil fuels, threaten fisheries and coastal communities in Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Iran, undermining food security and cultural practices tied to the sea.3
Indigenous communities from Siberia to the Persian Gulf and North America are seeing traditional lands and livelihoods transformed by melting permafrost, changing animal migrations and more intense storms.5
Cultural heritage sites and historic cities in Europe, the Middle East and Asia face increasing risk from sea‑level rise, flooding and heatwaves, challenging conservation efforts and tourism‑based economies.7
These ecological and cultural losses are cumulative and often irreversible on human timescales, which means every additional year of high fossil fuel emissions narrows the space for effective adaptation.9
The burden falls disproportionately on vulnerable groups – including low‑income households, Indigenous peoples and small‑scale farmers – who have contributed least to historic fossil fuel emissions.5
Politics of delay and transition
Fossil fuel politics in the top‑emitting countries are shaped by powerful incumbents, from national oil companies and utilities to industrial lobbies and regions reliant on coal and gas revenue.5
At recent UN climate summits, more than 80 countries have pushed for a clear global roadmap to phase out fossil fuels, while major producers and petrostates have fought to weaken or delay commitments.4
In the European Union and parts of the United States, political backlash against climate policies has emerged as parties capitalise on concerns about energy prices, jobs and cultural identity.7
China and India argue that developed countries should move fastest to cut emissions and provide more finance and technology for clean energy, highlighting historical responsibility and per‑capita disparities.12
Producer economies such as Russia, Saudi Arabia and Iran depend heavily on oil and gas export revenue, which creates strong incentives to resist rapid global decarbonisation without credible pathways for diversification.17
International initiatives like Just Energy Transition Partnerships and emerging campaigns for a Fossil Fuel Non‑Proliferation Treaty aim to co‑ordinate finance, policy and oversight for a fair phase‑down.2
Yet current pledges and funding remain far short of what is needed to support coal regions in South Africa and Indonesia, oil‑dependent economies in the Middle East, and gas‑linked communities in Russia and the United States.5
What planners and policymakers must do now
For regional planners and policymakers in the world’s major emitting countries, reducing long‑term climate risk now depends on deliberately managing the decline of fossil fuel use rather than assuming markets will solve it.8
Planning systems need to embed carbon budgets and climate risk assessments into decisions on new power stations, industrial zones, housing developments, ports and transport corridors.5
Regulators and treasuries must phase out fossil fuel subsidies and reorient public spending toward energy efficiency, public transport, storage, grid upgrades and distributed renewables that cut both emissions and household bills.5
Labour market and education policies should support workers in coal mines, oilfields, gas plants and heavy industry with retraining, income support and early‑warning systems for industrial restructuring.8
Urban planners in megacities from Beijing to Delhi, Jakarta and Houston can reduce fossil fuel dependence by prioritising compact, transit‑oriented development, building standards that cut energy demand and heat‑resilient public spaces.3
Critically, planners must involve affected communities, Indigenous groups and workers in decision‑making, to build legitimacy for transition plans and reduce the risk of political backlash.5
Coordinated regional planning that aligns land‑use, transport, energy and industry can lock in lower‑carbon pathways now and avoid expensive retrofits or stranded assets later this century.4
Stopping the burn: adaptation, policy and the end of fossil fuels
Even with rapid emissions cuts, climate impacts will intensify in the coming decades, which means adaptation must happen alongside an accelerated phase‑out of coal, oil and gas in the top‑emitting countries.9
Adaptation priorities include heat‑resilient housing and workplaces, upgraded drainage and flood defences, climate‑smart agriculture, coastal protection and disaster‑ready health systems in vulnerable regions.3
To stop burning fossil fuels, governments need clear timelines to end new exploration, halt approvals for unabated coal plants and retire existing fossil infrastructure in line with 1.5C‑consistent carbon budgets.5
National climate plans should spell out how and when coal, oil and gas production and consumption will decline, backed by laws, economic instruments and public investment that make clean energy the default choice.5
Internationally, richer high‑emitting countries have a responsibility to provide far more climate finance and technology support to emerging economies, so they can leapfrog to renewables instead of locking in fossil‑fuelled growth.12
Ultimately, phasing out fossil fuels is less a question of technical feasibility than of political will, public pressure and the speed at which governments decide to shift power, money and planning away from coal, oil and gas.1
The decisions taken this decade in Beijing, Washington, Delhi, Brussels, Moscow, Riyadh, Jakarta, Tehran, Tokyo and Seoul will determine whether future generations inherit a liveable climate or a dangerously destabilised one.9
References
- Global Carbon Project – Fossil CO₂ emissions at record high in 2023
- World Resources Institute – Countries phasing out coal the fastest
- NASA – Emissions from fossil fuels continue to rise
- Carbon Brief – IEA: Fossil‑fuel use will peak before 2030
- IISD – Next generation national climate plans must phase out fossil fuels
- Stanford – Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached record high in 2023
- Climate Action Tracker – EU policies and action
- UNFCCC / IISD – Fossil fuel phase‑out and a just transition
- EDGAR – GHG emissions of all world countries 2024 report
- Climate Council – Power Shift: The US, China and the race to net zero
- List of countries by greenhouse gas emissions
- IEA – Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030
- IEEJ – A global energy outlook to 2035 with strategic considerations
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