enters a warm spring with unresolved climate policy questions
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A Plainland fire in the Lockyer Valley forced evacuations and closed the Warrego Highway on Sunday 6 September.
Flames reached within a few metres of homes, and Queensland crews attended more than 180 fires that weekend.
Some temperatures were the hottest September maximums recorded since 2019.[4]
El Niño is a natural warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean that reshapes weather patterns worldwide.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says its influence on global temperatures can peak in the following year.
Murdoch University's Bill Hare writes that research suggests this could temporarily lift warming towards 1.7°C or 1.8°C in 2027.[6][1]
Hare writes that global warming is set to breach the 1.5°C threshold within five years. The 2015 Paris Agreement treats 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels as its central temperature limit.
Consequences range from rapidly melting ice sheets to bleached coral reefs.[1]
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) recorded a relative Niño3.4 index of +2.51°C for the week ending 13 September. The index isolates central Pacific warming from broader ocean warming.
Most models forecast a peak above +3.0°C, higher than any event since records began in 1950.[2][6]
Overshoot describes global temperatures rising above 1.5°C for a period before returning below the limit. Hare says global action could still hold peak warming near 1.7°C, with a return below 1.5°C by 2100. That outcome requires urgent and ambitious government action, and net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the 2060s.[1]
Every fraction of a degree, and every year above 1.5°C, inflicts irreversible ecological damage, Hare writes. Heat stress on corals accumulates with both intensity and duration, which links damage to time spent above thresholds.[1][5]
BoM forecasts above-average temperatures for most of Australia over coming months. Below-average rainfall is likely from October to December across parts of southern New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.
A positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a sea temperature contrast, could develop and deepen spring dryness in the south and east.[3]
Every El Niño differs, BoM advises, and a strong event can deliver modest effects in some regions. Early 2026 brought a wet La Niña, El Niño's opposite phase, and many regions have been wetter than usual. Parts of southern Queensland are drought declared, and officials say dry conditions are moving further east.[3][4]
Greg Mullins, a former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner, says danger periods in the Northern Tablelands have moved earlier. Seasonal outlooks also determine when firefighting aircraft contracts activate and when official danger periods begin.
Queensland officials expect elevated fire conditions to persist for weeks until significant rain arrives.[7][4]
The 2019-20 Black Summer fires killed 33 people and destroyed 3,094 houses. Over one billion animals are estimated to have perished, and 810 species and communities were prioritised for urgent intervention. Mullins links that season to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a negative Southern Annular Mode, a wind pattern.[8][7]
Coral bleaching occurs when heat-stressed corals expel the algae that supply their colour and energy. Hare cites mass bleaching across the Great Barrier Reef, Ningaloo and Scott Reef. After 2024 bleaching, the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) recorded record northern and southern Reef declines.[1][9]
Degree heating weeks (DHW) measure accumulated coral heat stress, with bleaching likely at 4 and mortality risk at 8. Nyinggulu (Ningaloo) recorded more than 20 DHW in 2025, and lagoon corals suffered 61 per cent average mortality.
Rapid warming compresses that accumulation, which can push many reefs past both thresholds within one summer.[5]
AIMS program leader Mike Emslie says coral cover now oscillates between record lows and highs within short periods. Fast-growing corals decline first because they are sensitive to heat, cyclones and coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish. A late-summer monsoon in 2026 brought a reprieve from bleaching, and regional cover rose slightly or stayed similar.[9][10]
The Reef bleached in consecutive years in 2024 and 2025, the second such run in a decade. Cyclones, floods and crown-of-thorns starfish compounded heat stress in 2024 and again affected parts of the Reef in 2026. AIMS describes the pattern as an ecosystem under stress.[9][10]
Australia is among the world's biggest fossil fuel exporters. Climate Analytics links Australian fossil fuel production and exports to roughly 4.5 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. Fossil fuels also supply about 90 per cent of the country's raw energy.[1]
Climate Analytics modelling shows Australian net emissions must fall 55 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. Current policies barely meet the existing 2030 target of a 43 per cent reduction. By 2050, Hare projects 245 million tonnes of residual emissions, pollution left after cuts, needing offsets.[1]
Ambitious pathways require coal production to fall about 80 per cent by 2035. Liquefied natural gas (LNG), gas chilled into liquid for shipping, would need to fall about 25 per cent. Coal exports would need to fall 95 per cent before 2040.[1]
Electricity would need to reach 50 per cent of national energy demand by 2035, up from 25 per cent. Current policies deliver 33 per cent by 2035, Hare writes. Mining, one of few industries with rising fossil fuel use, could reach zero emissions by 2045 through electrification.[1]
The 82 per cent renewables target for 2030 is non-binding. The Australian Energy Market Operator says the target is likely out of reach. Hare argues that binding status would speed the rollout, potentially reaching 96 per cent renewables by 2035.[1]
A federal policy called the Safeguard Mechanism sets legally binding pollution limits on large industrial facilities. Industrial emissions appeared to fall 2.3 per cent in 2025, less than half the 4.9 per cent required. Hare says the 2026-27 review is the moment to fix enforcement and the unlimited offsets that reduce net emissions.[1]
Hare counts 37 new, expanded or extended fossil fuel projects approved by the Albanese government, with 42 more pending. He says a fossil fuel phase-out would signal leadership to Pacific neighbours already facing rising seas. Australia is set to lead talks at COP31, the United Nations climate conference, in November.[1]
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued an advisory opinion in 2025, a formal legal view delivered on request. It found that licensing new fossil fuel projects can be an internationally wrongful act. Hare argues that credibility at COP31 depends on meeting domestic targets.[1]
A record-strength El Niño is forming while Australian reefs, fire agencies and communities carry the effects of recent extremes. Forecasters at BoM and the WMO have supplied the early warning. Preparation now depends on decisions made in Canberra and state capitals.
Accountability rests with governments. A binding renewables target, a stricter Safeguard Mechanism and approvals aligned with the ICJ opinion sit within federal control. Each lever answers a gap that scientists, courts and market operators have identified.
The evidence shows costs accumulating with every year above 1.5°C. The 2026-27 Safeguard review and COP31 negotiations will show whether Australian governance matches the science. Delay compounds the risks facing frontline communities and ecosystems.
1. Australia must double down to meet our climate targets. Our new study shows how (Murdoch University News, republished from The Conversation). Bill Hare of Murdoch University and Climate Analytics sets out overshoot risks, Australia's emissions pathway and the policy reviews ahead.
2. Southern hemisphere monitoring: El Niño continues to strengthen (Bureau of Meteorology). The Bureau's monitoring page reports the current Niño3.4 value and the forecast for peak El Niño strength.
3. BoM issues a fresh 'super' El Niño reality check for Australia (SBS News). SBS News reports the spring outlook from the Bureau and its advice that El Niño strength alone leaves Australian impacts uncertain.
4. Warning as hot conditions lead to outbreak of fires across Queensland (ABC News). ABC News reports more than 180 Queensland fires, the Warrego Highway closure and warnings of persistent fire conditions.
5. We knew Ningaloo's coral bleaching was severe. But what we found 6 months later was still a shock (The Conversation). Marine scientists report degree heating weeks above 20 and average lagoon coral mortality of 61 per cent at Ningaloo.
6. El Niño set to become very strong, raising risks of extreme weather into 2027 (World Meteorological Organization). The World Meteorological Organization outlines the near-certain persistence of El Niño through February 2027 and its global temperature influence.
7. El Niño is already here. But there's still a 'window of opportunity' (SBS News). SBS News reports a former fire commissioner's account of earlier danger periods and the climate drivers behind Black Summer.
8. Recovery Collection: Australia: Black Summer Bushfires 2019-2020 (PreventionWeb). PreventionWeb summarises Black Summer deaths, home losses, wildlife impacts and priority species and communities.
9. Great Barrier Reef more volatile with sharp declines in coral cover (Australian Institute of Marine Science). The Australian Institute of Marine Science details record coral cover declines and rising volatility after the 2024 mass bleaching.
10. Annual Summary Report of Coral Reef Condition 2025/26 (Australian Institute of Marine Science). The Institute reports stable or slightly higher coral cover in 2025-26 after a late-summer monsoon limited bleaching.
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