of Australian coastal properties this century
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Waves already gnaw steadily at the dunes fronting Wamberal Beach on the New South Wales Central Coast.
Homeowners there have argued for years over who should fund a protective seawall for their properties.
Their long-running dispute now previews a reckoning facing coastal communities nationwide.
On Thursday, the Climate Council released a bombshell report modelling those risks across the entire continent.
Rising Seas, Rising Bills found that sea level rise will conservatively cost Australia $855 billion this century.[1]
The report draws heavily on new peer-reviewed research from the University of Melbourne and the Australian National University.
Total economic losses from coastal flooding will reach $855.1 billion by the year 2100.
That staggering figure includes $274.3 billion in property losses and $580.7 billion in land use damage nationwide.[1]
More than 267,000 coastal properties face serious damage across the nation by century's end. Almost two million hectares of valuable land are also at genuine risk of inundation.
Queensland has the greatest number of exposed properties, followed closely by New South Wales and Western Australia.[1]
Every ten centimetres of additional sea level rise roughly triples the frequency of once-in-a-century flood events.
Minor coastal flooding in Sydney currently lasts for just over a week each year on average. Under a high-polluting scenario, that same flooding becomes a daily occurrence well before 2100.[1]
Researchers describe these projections as genuinely conservative estimates of the true risk. The modelling holds storm intensity constant and excludes coastal erosion losses from its calculations altogether.
Faster ice sheet collapse across Greenland or West Antarctica could push real damages substantially higher still.[2]
Professor Tom Kompas led the University of Melbourne modelling team behind these landmark findings. Researchers first mapped areas likely to flood using sea level projections and detailed storm surge estimates. They then combined that mapping with precise elevation data gathered across the continent.[2]
The team then carefully valued the properties and land sitting inside those identified flood zones. Statistical modelling estimated how severely those individual assets would likely be damaged over time. Physical damages were finally converted into economic losses expressed in dollar terms.[2]
The underlying research uses the IPCC's intermediate SSP2-4.5 emissions scenario as its central case. That pathway assumes current global climate policies broadly continue, leading to roughly 2.7 degrees of warming. It sits well above the 1.5 degree threshold agreed under the Paris Agreement.[2]
Kompas said sea level rise would physically affect an enormous number of ordinary Australians directly. Most citizens live within fifty kilometres of the coastline in cities and regional towns alike. He warned that resulting costs would be substantial across housing, infrastructure, ecosystems and farmland.[2]
Western Australia faces the nation's single largest bill, totalling an estimated $230.5 billion by 2100. Farming land accounts for the biggest share of projected losses across that vast state. Protected reserves and other conservation land follow closely behind in scale.[1]
Queensland ranks second nationally at $214.5 billion, split almost evenly between land and property damage. The Gold Coast alone accounts for $84.4 billion of that state's projected total losses. It remains, by a clear margin, the single most exposed urban area in the country.[3]
Victoria faces $167 billion in projected losses, concentrated heavily around Port Phillip Bay and the Yarra River. Unlike every other state, property damage there actually outweighs damage to open land. New South Wales follows closely behind at an estimated $150.7 billion.[1]
South Australia, the Northern Territory and Tasmania face smaller yet still genuinely severe economic bills. Losses there range from $49.2 billion down to roughly $7.9 billion respectively. Every single state and territory carries some meaningful share of this growing national burden.[1]
Back at Wamberal, Central Coast Council has spent years locked in dispute with beachfront homeowners over seawall costs. A nearby Land and Environment Court ruling this year favoured a similar seawall proposal elsewhere. That precedent could ultimately reshape Wamberal's own long-running standoff.[4][5]
Central Coast Council is meanwhile operating under administration, currently carrying roughly $565 million in accumulated debt. Funding any major seawall while managing that existing debt burden remains deeply contested locally. Ratepayers worry they will ultimately foot bills for protecting private beachfront properties.[6]
Most private insurers exclude coastal flooding and storm surge damage from their standard home policies entirely. Insurers typically classify such events under a broad exclusion known as action of the sea. Property owners are consequently left to absorb these mounting costs largely alone.[1]
The Insurance Council of Australia estimates $30 billion is needed for coastal protection works over fifty years. Australia's 537 local councils have separately voted unanimously that major polluters should help cover these costs. Fossil fuel corporations have so far largely avoided contributing to that growing bill.[1]
The Climate Council argues Australian governments hold two genuine levers available to limit future damage. They can restrict new residential development proceeding in the most vulnerable coastal areas nationwide. They can also actively support managed retreat for communities facing the highest exposure.[1]
Significant sea level rise remains already locked in regardless of any future policy action taken today. Someone must still ultimately pay for the substantial damage still projected to come. The report urges ending further coal and gas expansion across Australian territory as a priority.[1]
It also calls for closing loopholes within the Safeguard Mechanism, Australia's principal industrial pollution law. Those loopholes currently let major coal and gas corporations sidestep otherwise required emissions cuts. Redirecting existing fuel tax credits could instead fund genuine community preparation efforts.[1]
The Climate Council compares Australia's current response to bailing water from a boat without fixing the leak. Continued fossil fuel pollution guarantees this damage bill keeps growing steadily larger each decade. Genuine accountability ultimately requires cutting climate pollution decisively at its industrial source.[1]
Rising Seas, Rising Bills confirms what many coastal communities already quietly sense. Damage from sea level rise has already begun, decades before the century's end arrives. Wamberal's stalled seawall shows how governance can stall while underlying risk keeps steadily accumulating.
The $855 billion national bill will fall unevenly across every state and territory. Each jurisdiction carries its own share, and households will feel that burden directly. Insurance gaps leave many exposed property owners to shoulder these mounting costs entirely alone.
Accountability now rests with governments, industry regulators and heavy polluters working together. Ending fossil fuel expansion offers the clearest available path toward limiting future economic costs. Australia's coastline, and its taxpayers, are still waiting for genuinely meaningful action.
1. Rising Seas, Rising Bills: How Sea Level Rise Will Cost Every Australian. The Climate Council's report detailing the $855 billion national economic toll from coastal flooding this century.
2. Rising Sea Levels Could Cost Australians at Least $855 Billion by 2100. University of Melbourne newsroom release detailing the modelling methodology behind the findings.
3. Sea Level Rise Threatens More Than a Quarter of a Million Properties as Bill Surges to $855b. ABC News coverage of the report's national findings and regional breakdowns.
4. Council Loses Seawall Fight, Wamberal Takes Note. Swellnet report on the Land and Environment Court ruling affecting Central Coast seawall disputes.
5. Court Rules on Seawall at The Entrance North. Coast Community News report on the Land and Environment Court judgment and its implications for coastal property owners.
6. A Very Bad Precedent. Surfline investigation into Central Coast Council's financial position and the funding dispute over seawall construction.
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