while global funding falls far short
| Key Points |
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Outside the Federal Court in Melbourne on 28 July, Uncle Pabai Pabai addressed supporters as his climate appeal began.
The Boigu Traditional Owner said the fight protects future generations and preserves culture.
Three judges will deliver their decision at a later date.[7]
Estimates vary, and the highest comes from the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace.
That body warns that 1.2 billion people could face displacement by 2050 if disasters keep striking at recent rates.[5]
Australia grants protection visas to people with a well-founded fear of persecution under the Migration Act 1958.
The Act ties that persecution to race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group or political opinion.
The popular label climate refugee therefore holds no formal legal status.[1]
The Kaldor Centre for International Refugee Law at UNSW urges decision-makers to examine the full context of each claim. Discrimination and weak government assistance can turn a disaster into persecution, which may support a protection claim. Its September 2026 toolkit stresses that each claim rests on its own evidence.[1]
Non-refoulement, the rule against returning people to places where they face serious harm, offers a second path. In Teitiota v New Zealand, the UN Human Rights Committee clarified how that principle applies to climate harm. The International Court of Justice affirmed that approach in its advisory opinion of 23 July 2025.[2]
Australia has built a mobility pathway for Tuvalu under the Falepili Union treaty. Tuvaluan citizens register in a ballot for the chance to live, work and study in Australia. The 2026-27 program year offers up to 280 visa places.[8]
Internal climate migrants are people who move within their own borders because of gradual pressures such as water scarcity. The World Bank’s Groundswell report projects 216 million of them across six regions by 2050. Hotspots of internal climate migration could emerge as early as 2030.[3]
Sub-Saharan Africa leads with a projected 86 million internal climate migrants, about 40 per cent of the total. East Asia and the Pacific follows with 49 million. South Asia has 40 million and North Africa 19 million, while Latin America adds 17 million.[3]
The Institute for Economics and Peace identifies 31 countries with too little resilience to absorb ecological shocks. It links ecological threats with conflict and civil unrest as drivers of mass displacement. That wider scope helps explain why the estimate far exceeds the World Bank’s 216 million.[5]
Torres Strait communities face that prospect inside Australia too. Uncle Pabai Pabai and Uncle Paul Kabai sued the Commonwealth in October 2021 over its duty of care. The Federal Court dismissed their case in July 2025, and the pair then appealed to the Full Federal Court.[7]
Dhaka shows how cities absorb climate migrants. Informal settlements house about 40 per cent of its 14 million residents. Climate impacts drove 70 per cent of those residents from their homes.[4]
Riverbank erosion alone displaced half of those climate migrants. Up to 2,000 people reach the city every day, according to the same analysis. Millions of slum dwellers there live without water, sanitation, gas or electricity.[4]
UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, projects nearly 200 days of hazardous heat yearly in the hottest camps. That projection covers 2050 and camps in Gambia, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Senegal and Mali. The agency warns that many such locations could become uninhabitable.[9]
Australia’s Falepili pathway shows how a government can plan for arrivals. The ballot caps each year’s intake at 280 visas, and registrations closed on 1 June 2026. A support service helps participants understand the visa process, find employment and prepare to leave.[8]
A threat multiplier is a pressure that intensifies existing risks such as poverty, weak governance and conflict. The Institute for Economics and Peace finds 141 countries exposed to at least one ecological threat by 2050. More than one billion people live in countries with too little resilience to adapt.[5]
UNHCR reports that three in four refugees and people fleeing conflict live in countries with high-to-extreme climate risk. It also finds that 75 per cent of land across Africa is deteriorating. More than half of Africa’s settlements for refugees and displaced people sit in areas of severe ecological stress.[9]
The Kaldor Centre toolkit describes how climate impacts intensify existing social and economic inequalities. Those pressures can escalate tensions, raise political instability and contribute to conflict or violence. Governments that withhold relief from marginalised groups can deepen those risks.[1]
At least 117 million people have fled war, violence and persecution, UNHCR says. Its chief, Filippo Grandi, argued that stability requires investment where risk runs highest. He also warned that funding cuts limit the agency’s capacity to protect families from extreme weather.[9]
Loss and damage describes harm from climate impacts that adaptation fails to prevent. The dedicated fund has US$250 million available for its start-up phase. Developing countries have lodged requests worth up to US$3 billion.[6]
Grants run from US$5 million to US$20 million per project. The first four proposals, from Haiti, Nigeria, Jamaica and Côte d’Ivoire, total US$77.4 million. Governments can also seek budget support for emergencies such as temporary housing for displaced people.[6]
Australia pledged A$50 million to the loss and damage fund, joining Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom. That sits alongside A$100 million for the Pacific Resilience Facility and A$50 million for the Green Climate Fund. Ministers describe Pacific countries as facing an existential threat from climate change.[10]
The World Bank finds that concerted action could cut internal climate migration by up to 80 per cent. Even the best scenario still forces 44 million people to move. Governments hold the levers on emissions, adaptation finance and legal protection, so accountability starts with them.[3]
Australian law recognises persecution rather than climate harm, so protection depends on the facts of each claim. Courts and treaties such as the Falepili Union are beginning to fill that gap.
Projections from 216 million to 1.2 billion people describe a pressure that cities, camps and communities already feel. Funding of US$250 million against up to US$3 billion in requests leaves that pressure largely unmet.
Torres Strait leaders now ask the Full Federal Court to define the Commonwealth’s duty. Governments, rather than affected communities, hold the power to close the gap. Accountability for that choice rests with the ministers and parliaments that set emissions targets and fund adaptation.
1. Australian Toolkit on International Protection in the Context of Climate Change and Disasters. Kaldor Centre analysis of how the Migration Act 1958 applies to protection claims involving climate change and disasters.
2. How the ICJ’s Advisory Opinion on Climate Change Addresses Displacement, International Protection and Ongoing Statehood . UNSW analysis of how the Teitiota decision and the ICJ opinion shape non-refoulement in climate cases.
3. Climate Change Could Force 216 Million People to Migrate Within Their Own Countries by 2050. World Bank release on the Groundswell report’s regional projections and emissions-reduction scenarios.
4. Climate Migration and Global Cities. University of Washington summary of Dhaka’s informal settlements and climate displacement data.
5. Over One Billion People at Threat of Being Displaced by 2050 Due to Environmental Change, Conflict and Civil Unrest. Launch summary of the Institute for Economics and Peace’s Ecological Threat Register.
6. Loss and Damage Fund Faces US$2.8bn Gap as First Projects Move Ahead. Report on the fund’s US$250 million start-up allocation against up to US$3 billion in requests.
7. Torres Strait Leaders Return to Court in Landmark Climate Case Appeal. NITV coverage of the opening of the four-day Full Federal Court appeal in Pabai Pabai and Anor v Commonwealth.
8. The Falepili Mobility Pathway Visa Ballot Reopens for Tuvaluans. Australian High Commission announcement of the 2026-27 ballot offering up to 280 visa places.
9. Refugee Camps Set to Be Uninhabitable by 2050 as Extreme Weather Worsens. UN News summary of UNHCR findings on extreme heat, land degradation and climate exposure for displaced people.
10. Australia Contributes $50 Million for Loss and Damage from Climate Change. Ministerial release detailing Australia’s pledges to the loss and damage fund, the Pacific Resilience Facility and the Green Climate Fund.
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