(AU) Scott Morrison Says No Evidence Links Australia's Carbon Emissions To Bushfires

The Guardian - Paul Karp

PM suggests Australia could increase emissions without worsening current fire season, and says government finalising plans to crack down on environmental protests

Former fire chiefs have accused Scott Morrison’s government of avoiding the issue of climate change. On Thursday the PM said there was no ‘credible scientific evidence’ that cutting Australia’s emissions could reduce the severity of bushfires. Photograph: Steven Saphore/AAP

Scott Morrison has argued there is no direct link between Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions and the severity of fires ravaging the continent, even suggesting Australia could increase its emissions without making the current fire season worse.

Under pressure due to a record season of early bushfires and the accusation by a coalition of former fire chiefs that the government has avoided the issue of climate change, Morrison said on Thursday there was no “credible scientific evidence” that cutting Australia’s emissions could reduce the severity of bushfires.
On Thursday Morrison defended the government’s handling of the bushfire season, telling ABC’s AM it had put additional resources into emergency services and praising the “outstanding” response and coordination of state governments.

Morrison said he “took issue” with the suggestion by Greg Mullins, the former chief of NSW Fire and Rescue, and 23 other fire chiefs that the government was not adequately prepared.
Explaining why he didn’t meet Mullins, Morrison said the government already had the same advice about the impact of climate change from “existing fire chiefs doing the existing job”.

At first, Morrison appeared to accept that climate change was affecting the severity and frequency of bushfires.
“These are things that are very well known to the government – the contribution of these issues to global weather conditions and to conditions here in Australia are known and acknowledged,” he said.
“In February I acknowledged the contribution of those factors to what was happening in Australia – amongst many other issues.”
Morrison then said “the suggestion that any way shape or form that Australia, accountable for 1.3% of the world’s emissions, that the individual actions of Australia are impacting directly on specific fire events, whether it’s here or anywhere else in the world, that doesn’t bear up to credible scientific evidence either”.
“Climate change is a global phenomenon and we’re doing our bit as part of the response to climate change – we’re taking action on climate change,” he said.
“But I think to suggest that at just 1.3% of emissions, that Australia doing something more or less would change the fire outcome this season – I don’t think that stands up to any credible scientific evidence at all.”
The comments follow a controversy in September when the minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, said he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”, before a total about-face.
The link between rising greenhouse gas emissions and increased bushfire risk is complex but, according to major science agencies, clear. Warmer weather increases the number of days each year on which there is high or extreme bushfire risk.
Australia’s response to climate change has been ranked one of the worst in the G20, with rising greenhouse gas emissions since the Abbott government abolished the carbon price in 2014.
Australia’s target of 26%-28% emissions reduction by 2030 will require it to cut emissions by 695m tonnes cumulatively across the next decade.
The Morrison government said more than half of that cut, 367m tonnes, would come from carryover credits from overperformance of earlier targets and not from practical emissions reduction.
The centrepiece of federal climate policy is the $2.55bn emissions reduction fund, now rebadged as the climate solutions fund, a reverse auction processes that pays landowners and businesses to cut pollution.
The most recent auction bought emissions cuts equivalent to only 0.01% of Australia’s annual greenhouse gas pollution after officials found just three projects worth backing.
The government has been quietly pursuing an overhaul of the emissions reduction fund, appointing a panel of four business leaders and policy experts to suggest options to expand it, and will consider the issue with the states at a meeting of energy ministers on Friday.
On Thursday Morrison refused to give further details of his proposed crackdown on environmental protests and secondary boycotts, saying the government would make announcements when it had “finalised those arrangements”.
The attorney general, Christian Porter, has suggested measures could include extending the prohibition on secondary boycotts to environmental campaigns, and a crackdown on environmental litigation and use of litigation funders for class actions against mining companies.
In a speech to the Business Council on Wednesday, Morrison flagged an overhaul of environmental approvals for major projects to reduce the length of time it takes for businesses to navigate environmental approvals.

Links

• Australia fires: Victoria issues code red bushfire warning amid thunderstorm asthma threat
• What are the links between climate change and bushfires? – explainer
• Former Australian fire chiefs say Coalition ignored their advice because of climate change politics
• Australia's east coast threatened by blazes ahead of catastrophic danger day – as it happened
• Coalition grilled on regional jobs package – as it happened
• Stripped bare: Australia's hidden climate crisis
• Scott Morrison ducks questions on Australia's emissions strategy for 2050
• Littleproud's confusion and PM's reluctance only reinforce Australia's climate reputation
• 'Like nothing we've seen': Queensland bushfires tear through rainforest

Global GDP Will Suffer At Least A 3% Hit By 2050 From Unchecked Climate Change, Say Economists

MarketWatch - Rachel Koning Beals

North America and Western Europe have more breathing room

2°C of warming expected by 2050 in a high-emissions scenario might shave between 2.5%-7.5% from global GDP, with the worst affected countries being in Africa and Asia: Oxford Economics. Getty Images

The global economy will be at least 3% smaller by 2050 owed solely to the effects of unchecked climate change, including severe weather and rising sea levels.
That’s a figure laid out in a framework from data experts at The Economist Intelligence Unit released Wednesday. Its findings track with select other climate-linked economic warnings sounded recently, including in the long view from central bankers.
Africa is the least resilient region to the impact of climate change and its economy will likely contract by at least 4.7% by 2050 based on environmental factors alone, while not taking into account other cyclical economic tendencies. Next comes Latin America (with an expected 3.8% hit), the Middle East (3.7%), Eastern Europe (3%) and Asia-Pacific (2.6%).
More-resilient North America’s economy is pegged to be 1.1% smaller because of climate change by 2050, while Western Europe should prepare for a climate-related contraction of 1.7%. Both regions are wealthier and more prepared to tackle climate change from an institutional standpoint than other parts of the globe, EIU said.
“The impacts of climate change are already being felt — we are already seeing the effects of more extreme weather events — but the economic impacts will only grow over time,” said John Ferguson, the group’s country analysis director. “It’s important to remember that a 3% loss of real GDP in 2050 is highly significant for the global economy, and that there will be economic losses in every year of the coming three decades.”
The EIU also admitted there’s uncertainty in forecasting the impacts of climate change. For example, the researchers have assumed that countries will make a modest effort to meet their goals as stated in their own contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement. However, the progress in this space and the implementation of these policies could easily disappoint, the EIU said. In fact, the economic impacts could be much worse than those highlighted in the model. President Donald Trump has started the process to pull the U.S. out of the Paris pact, mainly citing what he argues is noncompliance from China and other big emitters.
Oxford Economics offers a more alarming estimate, though one stretched over a longer time frame.
In the absence of efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, the Earth is currently on course to warm by around 4°C by 2100, these researchers emphasized. If so, this could strip 30% off the level of global GDP by that date, based on the top end of an estimate range.
More immediately, according to the Oxford Economics study, 2°C of warming expected by 2050 in a high-emissions scenario might shave between 2.5%-7.5% from global GDP, with the worst affected countries being in Africa and Asia.
“So, while over a 10-year horizon the costs seem unlikely to be significant enough to affect our forecasts, the window of indiscernibility looks to be closing rapidly,” the researchers said in a white paper available to its clients.
Many of the world’s top central banks want to move the global financial system away from a reliance on industries — including fossil-fuel giants Exxon XOM, +0.31%   and Chevron CVX, +0.76%   — that scientists largely have cited as posing increased risk for contributing to extreme changes in weather, large fires, rising sea levels and flooding.
The U.S. Fed has been the laggard among is central-bank peers in this regard. However, a rapidly changing climate may present just the kind of “shock” to the economic system that she and colleagues believe can no longer be ignored, Fed Gov. Lael Brainard said in prepared remarks to a recent first-of-its-kind Fed summit.
“There has been an increased willingness to engage on climate-change issues,” New York Fed President John Williams said in remarks earlier this month. “As the Fed, we are careful not to tell Congress what to do, but we can inform the debate.”
Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney said in an October speech in Tokyo that central banks will have to consider the physical risks of climate change when weighing monetary policy. That ranges from the impact on mortgages from flooding to severe weather’s toll on the pricing of government bonds.

Links

• Economist Intelligence Unit: Resilience to climate change?
• Economist Intelligence Unit: Australia
• Economies In Asia Pacific Forecast To Shrink By Over 2 Per Cent Due To Climate Change: Study
• How climate change is ‘creating a dilemma’ for the world’s central bankers
• Banks increasingly unload flooded-out mortgages at taxpayer expense
• (AU) Climate Change And The Economy Are Linked — It's Time The Morrison Government Accepts That
• A Globalised Solar-Powered Future Is Wholly Unrealistic – And Our Economy Is The Reason Why
• Scientists And Economists Are Warning The World's Governments That Climate Change Will Destroy Capitalism As We Know It
• Climate Change Could Cost The U.S. Up To 10.5 Percent Of Its GDP By 2100, Study Finds
• Green Growth Is Trusted To Fix Climate Change – Here’s The Problem With That
• Moody’s Analytics Says Climate Change Could Cost US$69 Trillion By 2100
• Norway's $US1 Trillion Sovereign Wealth Fund To Dump Billions In Coal Investments

Economies In Asia Pacific Forecast To Shrink By Over 2 Per Cent Due To Climate Change: Study

TODAY - Navene Elangovan

The economies of developing countries tend to depend on agriculture, which is vulnerable to climate change, a study found. Malay Mail Online

SINGAPORE — The Asia-Pacific economy will shrink by 2.6 per cent by 2050 due to its inability to withstand climate change, a study found.
This is slightly lower than the global average shrinkage of 3 per cent.
The study assessed 82 countries to determine their Climate Change Resilience Index, or how their economies will be affected based on their capacity to withstand climate change.
A summary of the findings were released on Wednesday (Nov 20) by research and analysis company The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), which is the research arm of newspaper The Economist.
Mr John Ferguson, the EIU’s country analysis director, told TODAY that climate change will have a limited impact on Singapore’s economy even though developing countries within Asia Pacific will be affected.
“High levels of income per head, a lack of dependence on agricultural commodity exports for growth, and the Government's strong ability and willingness to intervene to mitigate the impact of climate change will alleviate related risks for Singapore to a significant extent.”
However, he said that as a small island nation, Singapore will be vulnerable to increasing floods and weather-related disasters such as changes to climate patterns and rising sea levels.
“Some supply-chain risks also exist, particularly if Singapore's imported food supplies are affected by increasing climatic volatility,” he added.

How countries were assessed
The ability and willingness of countries to confront climate change were examined in line with eight indicators:

• The loss of land or physical capital due to extreme weather
• The impact on public services, basic needs and government spending
• The impact on agriculture
• Loss of labour productivity
• Tourism losses
• Trade losses
• Cost of adaptation to climate change
• Cost to mitigate climate change

Where the different regions stand
Among the seven regions assessed, researchers expect North America to suffer the least amount of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) loss (of 1.1 per cent) by 2050.
Conversely, it found that the region which is least resilient to climate change is Africa (loss of 4.7 per cent).
The level of real GDP loss forecasted for all regions:

• North America – 1.1 per cent
• Western Europe – 1.7 per cent
• Asia Pacific – 2.6 per cent
• Eastern Europe – 3 per cent
• Middle East – 3.7 per cent
• Latin America – 3.8 per cent
• Africa – 4.7 per cent

North America and Western Europe took the top spots because both regions are richer and more prepared to tackle climate change. They are thus likely to see the least impact economically.
Africa took the bottom spot because it faces higher average temperatures and lower levels of economic development. Policymakers there will also face challenges meeting their objectives for policies related to climate change.

Why poorer countries would be hit hardest

Countries which are poorer and have higher average temperatures will be the most affected.

Nearly all low-income countries are tropical, increasing their exposure to global warming, the report said.
Poor quality of infrastructure and housing also make these countries less resilient to extreme weather.
Another reason: The economies of developing countries tend to depend on agriculture, which is vulnerable to climate change. A rise in temperature could lead to more competition over dwindling fertile land and deteriorating food security, increasing the possibility of social unrest.
Within Asia Pacific, developing countries such as Bangladesh will be affected by climate change the most.

What else is needed for climate resilience
While a rich country is better prepared to confront its challenges and so has an advantage in withstanding climate change, the institutional quality of a country matters as well, the report stated. This refers to attributes such as the level of corruption, the quality of the bureaucracy and the protection of property rights in a country.
Institutional quality is thus tied to a country’s initiatives to adapt to climate change, such as building flood defences. Institutional quality can also affect policies which aim to reduce carbon emissions, such as carbon taxes.
The United States is an example of a North American economy that is well-prepared to confront economic and social challenges related to climate change, the study found.
It has a well-funded research and development sector as well as strong national institutions.
It is also less exposed to geographic risks related to climate change as compared to developing countries.
The report noted that US President Donald Trump may have negative polices on climate change such as withdrawing from the Paris Climate Change Agreement, showing that strong institutions do not always facilitate climate-friendly policies, but policies can still be formed and implemented quickly when there is political will.

Links

• Global GDP Will Suffer At Least A 3% Hit By 2050 From Unchecked Climate Change, Say Economists
• Climate change an urgent problem with ‘very major consequences’, says PM Lee
• Why climate change should matter to Singaporeans and what the Govt is doing about it
• More S’poreans aware of climate change but not doing enough to slow crisis, say activists
• How the food that Singaporeans eat contributes to climate change
• Why we need to use nature in the fight against climate change
• Economist Intelligence Unit: Resilience to climate change?
• How climate change is ‘creating a dilemma’ for the world’s central bankers
• Banks increasingly unload flooded-out mortgages at taxpayer expense
• Economist Intelligence Unit: Australia

(AU) Climate Change The Biggest Threat To Great Barrier Reef: Ley

Sydney Morning Herald - Tony Moore

Federal Environment Minister Sussan Ley and Queensland's Environment Minister Leeanne Enoch released a statement on Tuesday afternoon acknowledging climate change as the biggest threat to the health of the Great Barrier Reef.
The United Nations scientific body, UNESCO, will in 2020 make a decision on whether or not to list the Queensland's Great Barrier Reef as a world-heritage site that is in danger.

Federal Environment Minister Sussan Ley. Credit: Lukas Coch/AAP

The Great Barrier Reef has been a UNESCO world-heritage listed site since 1981.The two environment ministers - part of the Great Barrier Reef Ministerial Forum - met in Townsville on Tuesday to discuss the progress of policies set over the past five years to protect the Great Barrier Reef.
They will on December 1 release the report that will be provided to UNESCO's world heritage committee, which will ultimately make the ruling on the future listing of the Great Barrier Reef.
Ms Ley said she was confident the policies of both governments would protect the Great Barrier Reef of the impacts of climate change.
"There is clear acceptance of the science and it is also telling us that we are taking important steps to strengthen the Reef’s resilience," Mr Ley said in a statement.
"This year’s reef Outlook Report highlighted the challenges we face but it was also clear about the steps we can and are taking to protect its future and its World Heritage status."
The Great Barrier Reef Management Authority's August 2019 Outlook Report downgraded the future health of the Great Barrier Reef from "poor to very poor".
In September 2019, the Queensland government moved away from voluntary measures by agricultural groups to control sediment run-off into coastal reef areas to a new system where minimum standards for nutrient run-off are set and enforced by the Queensland government.
Ms Enoch said that decision was one of a number which showed governments were taking concerted steps to protect the Great Barrier Reef.
A project to slowly reduce eroded soil flowing down the Burdekin River onto the Great Barrier Reef has also received recognition by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
"These regulations, along with other efforts including tree-clearing laws and action on climate change, are all steps that are being taken by the Queensland Government to support the health of the Reef and prevent it from being listed by the World Heritage Committee as in-danger next year," Ms Enoch said.
"The partnerships being developed with traditional owners are driving key recommendations under the Reef 2050 plan, and the work of Indigenous rangers on the land and sea are also proving vital to protect precious ecosystems."
The two levels of government "endorsed" the existing range of policies, despite conservationists arguing for a faster shift from carbon-intensive energy sources and agriculture sources.
Conservation groups argue a faster shift towards renewable energy is needed because the the world's atmospheric temperature has risen by more than one degree centigrade, an issue highlighted by the Federal Government's own Great Barrier Reef Management Authority's in it's 2019 Outlook Report.
Australia is a signatory to international efforts to keep atmospheric warming below two degrees.
"The rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions has caused an estimated one-degree centigrade increase in global average temperature since pre-industrial times," the report says.
"The rising global temperature is causing an increase in sea temperature, which has a multitude of impacts, including destructive marine heatwaves."
The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority released this blunt statement in July 2019: "Only the strongest and fastest possible actions to decrease global greenhouse gas emissions will reduce the risks and limit the impacts of climate change on the reef. "

Queensland's Great Barrier Reef

No commitment was made by either environment minister to increase the pace of a shift towards renewable energy.
Queensland promises to provide 20 per cent of it energy by 2020 from renewable energy sources and 50 per cent by 2030.
The Australian government has a commitment to provide 23.5 per cent of its energy from renewable energy by 2020.

Links

• Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2019
• Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan
• Great Barrier Reef Blueprint for Resilience
• AgForce Backs Calls For Review Of Consensus Science On Great Barrier Reef
• Great Barrier Reef Outlook Now 'Very Poor', Australian Government Review Says
• Great Barrier Reef Authority Urges 'Fastest Possible Action' On Emissions
• Morrison Government Experts Say Australia Must 'Do More' On Climate
• ‘Sadness, Disgust, Anger’: Fear For The Great Barrier Reef Made Climate Change Feel Urgent
• Radical Climate Action 'Critical' To Great Barrier Reef's Survival, Government Body Says
• Legal Protections Urged As Science Gears Up To Aid Great Barrier Reef
• The Great Barrier Reef Is “In For A Rough Ride”

(AU) Global Heating Supercharging Indian Ocean Climate System

The Guardian - Peter Beaumont | Graham Readfearn

Indian Ocean dipole events, linked to bushfires and floods,

are becoming stronger and more frequent, scientists say

Smoke haze blanketing Sydney as bushfires burn in New South Wales, Australia. Photograph: Neil Bennett/AAP

Global heating is “supercharging” an increasingly dangerous climate mechanism in the Indian Ocean that has played a role in disasters this year including bushfires in Australia and floods in Africa.
Scientists and humanitarian officials say this year’s record Indian Ocean dipole, as the phenomenon is known, threatens to reappear more regularly and in a more extreme form as sea surface temperatures rise.
Of most concern are years in which the sea surface off the coast of Africa warms up, provoking increased rains, while temperatures off Australia fall, leading to drier weather.
It is similar to El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific, which cause sharp changes in weather patterns on both sides of the ocean.

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Temperature changes in the Indian Ocean lead
to extreme weather events in Australia and east Africa

Guardian graphic. Source: The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

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Caroline Ummenhofer, a scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts who has been a key figure in efforts to understand the importance of the dipole, said unique factors were at play in the Indian Ocean compared with other tropical regions.
While ocean currents and winds in the Atlantic and Pacific can disperse heating water, the large Asian landmass to the north of the Indian Ocean makes it particularly susceptible to retaining heat. “It’s quite different to the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific events. There you have you have steady easterly trade winds. In the Indian Ocean that’s not the case,” Ummenhofer said.
“There is a certain season where you have easterly winds. Otherwise you have seasonally reversing monsoon winds, which makes for very different dynamics.”
Recent research suggests ocean heat has risen dramatically over the past decade, leading to the potential for warming water in the Indian Ocean to affect the Indian monsoon, one of the most important climate patterns in the world.
“There has been research suggesting that Indian Ocean dipole events have become more common with the warming in the last 50 years, with climate models suggesting a tendency for such events to become more frequent and becoming stronger,” Ummenhofer said.
She said warming appeared to be “supercharging” mechanisms already existing in the background. “The Indian Ocean is particularly sensitive to a warming world. It is the canary in the coalmine seeing big changes before others come to other tropical ocean areas.”
Australian climatologists have pointed to this year’s dipole as at least one of the contributing factors in the bushfires. Jonathan Pollock, of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said this dipole was “up there as one of the strongest” on record.

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Flooding has affected more than
2.5 million people in eastern Africa since July

Guardian graphic. Source: OCHA

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Gemma Connell, of the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, raised concern over the impact of stronger and more regular Indian Ocean dipole events on Africa.
“What we are seeing from the current record events is large-scale flooding across the region. Entire swathes are under water, affecting 2.5 million people,” she said.
“And putting it in the broader picture of the climate crisis, this flooding is coming on the back of two droughts. What we are seeing, and what we are going to see more of, is more frequent climatic shocks coming. And all that is on top of the violence and conflict that has already displaced many of the people involved.
“In Kenya, for example, the region hardest hit has been around Lake Turkana, where there are already global malnutrition rates above 30% following drought. People are trying to cope with back-to-back shocks and their resilience has been eroded.”
Another concern for Connell and other humanitarian officials is that although climate scientists are racing to try to develop predictive modelling, there is disagreement over whether stronger Indian Ocean dipole events will lead to a wetter climate for Africa or a drier one.
“As non-meteorologists trying to plan ahead, we’re being faced with complex and changing scenarios. We’re just running to keep up. Looking now at southern and eastern Africa, with failed rainy seasons and then flooding, none of it looks normal,” she said.
“The new normal is a severe weather events. Looking at the Indian Ocean dipole’s effects, you have to see this is as a preview of what can be expected in other parts of world. And while I’m not surprised that attention of the world is elsewhere, that is still unforgivable given how many are suffering from a phenomenon the rest of the world helped create.”

Links

• Indian Ocean Dipole
• The Culprit Behind East Australia's Big Dry
• More Than Climate Change Driving Queensland Fires, Explain Climatologists
• ‘We have nothing’: Somalia floods raise spectre of famine
• French citizens' panel to advise on climate crisis strategies
• Swedish mountain loses highest peak title due to global heating
• Climate change making storms like Idai more severe, say experts
• Five Pacific islands lost to rising seas as climate change hits
• Solar power to the people: how the sun can ease Africa's electricity crisis
• Scientists reveal ‘fair system’ for countries to tackle climate change
• Global climate change treaty in sight after Durban breakthrough
• Tuvalu drought could be dry run for dealing with climate change

(AU) Firestorms And Flaming Tornadoes: How Bushfires Create Their Own Ferocious Weather Systems

The Conversation - Rachel Badlan

A firestorm on Mirror Plateaun Yellowstone Park, 1988. Jim Peaco/US National Park Service

As the east coast bushfire crisis unfolds, New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Rural Fire Service operational officer Brett Taylor have each warned residents bushfires can create their own weather systems.
This is not just a figure of speech or a general warning about the unpredictability of intense fires. Bushfires genuinely can create their own weather systems: a phenomenon known variously as firestorms, pyroclouds or, in meteorology-speak, pyrocumulonimbus.
The occurrence of firestorms is increasing in Australia; there have been more than 50 in the period 2001-18. During a six-week period earlier this year, 18 confirmed pyrocumulonimbus formed, mainly over the Victorian High Country.

A pyrocumulonimbus cloud generated by a bushfire in Licola,Victoria, on March 2, 2019. Elliot Leventhal, Author provided

It's not clear whether the current bushfires will spawn any firestorms. But with the frequency of extreme fires set to increase due to hotter and drier conditions, it’s worth taking a closer look at how firestorms happen, and what effects they produce.

What is a firestorm?
The term “firestorm” is a contraction of “fire thunderstorm”. In simple terms, they are thunderstorms generated by the heat from a bushfire.
In stark contrast to typical bushfires, which are relatively easy to predict and are driven by the prevailing wind, firestorms tend to form above unusually large and intense fires.
If a fire encompasses a large enough area (called “deep flaming”), the upward movement of hot air can cause the fire to interact with the atmosphere above it, potentially forming a pyrocloud. This consists of smoke and ash in the smoke plume, and water vapour in the cloud above.
If the conditions are not too severe, the fire may produce a cloud called a pyrocumulus, which is simply a cloud that forms over the fire. These are typically benign and do not affect conditions on the ground.
But if the fire is particularly large or intense, or if the atmosphere above it is unstable, this process can give birth to a pyrocumulonimbus – and that is an entirely more malevolent beast.

What effects do firestorms produce?
A pyrocumulonibus cloud is much like a normal thunderstorm that forms on a hot summer’s day. The crucial difference here is that this upward movement is caused by the heat from the fire, rather than simply heat radiating from the ground.
Conventional thunderclouds and pyrocumulonimbus share similar characteristics. Both form an anvil-shaped cloud that extends high into the troposphere (the lower 10-15km of the atmosphere) and may even reach into the stratosphere beyond.

NASA image of pyrocumulonimbus formation in Argentina, January 2018. NASA

The weather underneath these clouds can be fierce. As the cloud forms, the circulating air creates strong winds with dangerous, erratic “downbursts” – vertical blasts of air that hit the ground and scatter in all directions.
In the case of a pyrocumulonimbus, these downbursts have the added effect of bringing dry air down to the surface beneath the fire. The swirling winds can also carry embers over huge distances. Ember attack has been identified as the main cause of property loss in bushfires, and the unpredictable downbursts make it impossible to determine which direction the wind will blow across the ground. The wind direction may suddenly change, catching people off guard.
Firestorms also produce dry lightning, potentially sparking new fires, which may then merge or coalesce into a larger flaming zone.
In rare cases, a firestorm can even morph into a “fire tornado”. This is formed from the rotating winds in the convective column of a pyrocumulonimbus. They are attached to the firestorm and can therefore lift off the ground.
This happened during the infamous January 2003 Canberra bushfires, when a pyrotornado tore a path near Mount Arawang in the suburb of Kambah.


A fire tornado in Kambah, Canberra, 2003 (contains strong language).

Understandably, firestorms are the most dangerous and unpredictable manifestations of a bushfire, and are impossible to suppress or control. As such, it is vital to evacuate these areas early, to avoid sending fire personnel into extremely dangerous areas.
The challenge is to identify the triggers that cause fires to develop into firestorms. Our research at UNSW, in collaboration with fire agencies, has made considerable progress in identifying these factors. They include “eruptive fire behaviour”, where instead of a steady rate of fire spread, once a fire interacts with a slope, the plume may attach to the ground and rapidly accelerate up the hill.
Another process, called “vorticity-driven lateral spread”, has also been recognised as a good indicator of potential fire blow-up. This occurs when a fire spreads laterally along a ridge line instead of following the direction of the wind.
Although further refinement is still needed, this kind of knowledge could greatly improve decision-making processes on when and where to deploy on-ground fire crews, and when to evacuate before the situation turns deadly.

Links

• Firestorms: the bushfire/thunderstorm hybrids we urgently need to understand
• Turn and burn: the strange world of fire tornadoes
• Drought and climate change were the kindling, and now the east coast is ablaze
• Australia could see fewer cyclones, but more heat and fire risk in coming months
• It’s only October, so what’s with all these bushfires? New research explains it
• Climate change is bringing a new world of bushfires

(AU) Sydney's Bushfire Smoke Haze Leaves 60 People Needing Treatment From Paramedics

ABC News


Sydney was wreathed in bushfire smoke. (ABC News)

Key Points Sydneysiders woke to a thick blanket of smoke on Tuesday morning It was from a bushfire at Gospers Mountain, north-west of Sydney The Rural Fire Service is monitoring dozens of blazes around the state

The thick layer of bushfire smoke blanketing Sydney on Tuesday morning has largely moved on, but dozens of Sydneysiders required medical assistance from the haze.
At least 60 people were treated by paramedics for health complications caused by the smoke haze, according to NSW Ambulance.
Superintendent Jordan Emery said some calls for help were severe and required transport to hospital.
"Western Sydney has been particularly heavily affected as a result of the proximity to the bushfire burning just north of Sydney," he said.
Superintendent Emery said that although older people were more vulnerable to respiratory problems, younger people with asthma also required assistance today.
Authorities said while conditions had improved in Sydney's west, further east and around the CBD the air had not completely cleared.
The haze came amid total fire bans in many parts of the state, and forecasts of a heatwave later this week, with temperatures expected to climb past 40 degrees Celsius in some areas.

Sydney CBD blanketed with a smoke haze on Tuesday. (AAP: Joel Carrett)

Emergency Information ABC Mid North Coast Port Macquarie Taree (Taree MF) 756 AM or via live stream ABC Mid North Coast Port Macquarie Kempsey (Smithton MF) 684AM or via live stream ABC New England North West Glen Innes (Glen Innes MF) 819 AM or via live stream ABC North Coast Grafton (Lawrence MF) 738 AM or via live stream ABC Sydney 702 AM or via live stream

The Department of Environment said the smoke pushed air quality beyond "hazardous" levels in Sydney's north-west, and NSW's northern tablelands and north-west slopes.
NSW Health's Director of Environmental Health Doctor Richard Broome said the bad air quality and hot temperatures posed a serious risk.
"If you are somewhere where it's smoky it continues to be really important to avoid outdoor physical activity if you can.
"Especially if you're someone who has a chronic respiratory or heart condition and are more sensitive to smoke."
The smoke spread from the Gospers Mountain fire, which has burnt more than 120,000 hectares north-west of Sydney and remains out of control.
Hot and dry conditions also created challenging conditions for firefighters at Ebor, between Armidale and Coffs Harbour.
There are dozens of fires burning across the state and today's conditions had the Rural Fire Service (RFS) on high alert.
There are 1,400 firefighters working to curb the spread of those fires, but RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said there was "the potential for real challenges".

Smoke haze blanketing the Parramatta River near Rhodes. (AAP: Danny Casey)

"We've got not only these high temperatures, the mid to high 30s, the dry atmosphere, but we've got this real mix of converging winds today," he said.
A northerly wind will make its way down the coast and inland, before swinging around to the south-west and strengthening, and later a blustery southerly will travel up the coast.

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How to cope with the smoke

Just  because you don't live in the bush doesn't mean you're immune to the health effects of bushfires. Here's how to manage the risks.

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Keep windows and doors shut
The air quality was worst in western Sydney, around Richmond and Rouse Hill, where air pollution is around two to three times the national standard.
Dr Broome said the risks from the smoke were minor for most people, with sore eyes and a sore throat the most common symptoms.
However, people who have pre-existing conditions like asthma or emphysema may be at slightly higher risk of developing problems.
"[For those people] it's actually better to stay indoors, keeping your windows and doors shut," he said.
But with no end in sight for the fires, which kicked off earlier than normal this year, Dr Broome advised people to adapt.
"People just need to build it into their routine a little bit for the next period of time," he said.
Dr Broome also said it could be smoky again tomorrow, with that pattern continuing until the end of the week.
"It's also going to be very hot, especially in Western Sydney and further north in New South Wales. We're expecting heatwave conditions, mostly from Wednesday onwards," he said.

The smoke came from a bushfire in Gospers Mountain, north-west of Sydney. (ABC News: Antonette Collins)

Many Sydneysiders struggled in this morning's smoky conditions.
"My eyes are stinging, my daughter's coughing her guts out," said one woman at Milsons Point.
Another said: "It's disgusting. I was woken up about two o'clock this morning and it was terrible."
"I'm finding it difficult to breathe and I don't have any health issues."

Some people exercising outdoors were unfazed by the health warnings. (ABC News: Antonette Collins)

Links

• Get the latest RFS advice here
• Scientists say the NSW mega fires are linked to climate change. Here's how
• Doctors 'Obliged To Speak On Climate Risk' As Smoke Blankets Sydney
• It's hard to breathe': Bushfires cause choking air pollution in south-east Queensland
• Nearly 500 NSW homes lost to bushfires as crews scramble to build containment lines
• Smoke chokes Sydney as more than 50 people treated for breathing-related incidents
• Air quality and pollution city ranking
• Sydney's bushfire smoke haze leaves 60 people needing treatment from paramedics