Climate Signals
A slow-moving storm system, fed by unusually warm seas in the Gulf of Mexico, began on August 7 to unleash heavy rains in the Southeastern United States.
From Tuesday, August 9 through Sunday, August 14 the storm inundated Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas, killing three people.
Five cities in Louisiana have reported rainfall totals of over two feet.
On August 11, a measure of atmospheric moisture, precipitable water, was in historic territory at 2.78 inches, a measurement higher than during some past hurricanes in the region.
Increased moisture in the air and unusually heavy rainfall are classic signals of climate change.
As the world warms, storms are able to feed on warmer ocean waters, and the air is able to hold and dump more water.
These trends have led to a pronounced increase in intense rainfall events and an increase in flooding risk.
In the Southeastern US, extreme precipitation has increased 27 percent from 1958 to 2012.
Southeastern US sees extreme rainfall, a classic signal of climate change
Beginning Sunday, August 7, a slow moving storm system headed northward
from the superheated Gulf of Mexico and unleashed heavy rains on the
Southeastern US, first targeting Florida's panhandle and northwestern
coast.
Perry, Florida, saw 4.5 inches of rain in just two hours on August 8,
and Hatch Bend, Florida, reported up to 12.4 inches of rain from Sunday
until 9am on Monday.[1]
From Tuesday, August 9 through Sunday, August 14, the slow-moving storm
inundated Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas, killing at
least three people.[2]
Five cities in Louisiana have reported over two feet of rain, with Watson, Louisiana, topping the list at 31.39 inches.[3]
The town of Lafayette, in the heart of the wettest part of the storm,
reported 10.39 inches of rain on Friday, setting the town's record of
wettest day until Saturday topped that at 10.40 inches.[4]
Record flooding has been observed on at nine river gauges in Louisiana.[12]
One of the clearest changes in weather globally and across the United States is the increasing frequency of heavy rain.[5]
A warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor. And like a bigger bucket, a warmer atmosphere dumps more water when it rains.
The storm in the Southeastern US was supercharged by running over a
warmer ocean and through an atmosphere made wetter by global warming.
Climate change is now responsible for 17 percent of moderate extreme rainfall events, i.e. one-in-a-thousand day events.[6]
The more extreme the event, the more likely climate change was
responsible, as climate change affects the frequency of the extreme
events the most. In the instance of a one-in-a-thousand year event, the odds that climate change was responsible is dramatically higher.[6]
High sea surface temperatures feed moisture and energy into storms
The storm system was fed by moist winds coming off the Gulf coast
where sea surface temperatures are running hot, bumped up by global
warming.
On August 7, sea surface temperatures in the Gulf hovered
near 90°F (32°C) at temperatures 3.6°F-5.4°F (2-3°C) above average.[7][8]
Along the central Gulf Coast, a measure of atmospheric moisture (from
the surface up to the jet stream level) known as precipitable water is
in the top percentile of historical values (3 to 3.5 standard deviations
above normal).[9]
In
New Orleans, the precipitable water was determined to be 2.78 inches
Wednesday, which ranks among the top-five highest levels on record in
August.[10]
As the world warms, storms are able to feed on warmer ocean waters, and the air is able to hold and dump more water.
Extreme rains and floods are consistent with climate change trends
Over the past century the US has witnessed a 20 percent increase in
the amount of precipitation falling in the heaviest downpours, which has
dramatically increased the risk of flooding.[5]
Since
the 1980s, a larger percentage of precipitation has come in the form of
intense single-day events, and nine of the top 10 years for extreme
one-day precipitation events have occurred since 1990.[11]
In the Southeastern US, extreme precipitation has increased 27 percent from 1958 to 2012.[5]
Discover how Climate Signals are related
This tree of climate signals illustrates factors that link this event to climate change.
This tree of climate signals
is schematic only. It illustrates factors that link individual events
to climate change. The diagram does not quantify the relative strength
of each factor, nor does it illustrate the natural factors that often
shape extreme events, including natural variability and regular
circulation changes. For more information, read more about this event.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Greenhouse gases from human activities—mainly the burning of
fossil fuels like coal and gas—are likely responsible for all the
observed warming since 1950. The fundamental physics of heat trapping
greenhouse gases has been understood since the nineteenth century.
Scientists have understood since the late 1970s that humans—by
increasing the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases from 280
parts per million in preindustrial times to what is now over 400
ppm—have effectively wrapped the Earth in a thicker blanket, trapping
more of the Earth’s infrared energy close to the surface.
Global Warming
From 1880 to 2012, the Earth warmed by 1.5°F (0.85°C) reversing a
long term cooling trend. The physics behind the Earth’s temperature
imbalance is simple. Scientists first realized that gases in the
atmosphere cause a greenhouse effect in the 19th century and have known
since the late 1970s that humans are now driving this effect, trapping
more of the Earth’s infrared energy close to the surface through fossil
fuel emissions. The atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases has
increased from 280 parts per million in preindustrial times to what is
now over 400 ppm.
Increased Sea Surface Temperature
The amount of heat absorbed by the oceans has surged in the past
few decades, contributing to more intense storms, sea level rise, sea
ice melt, storm surge flooding and widespread ecosystem change.
Increased Atmospheric Moisture
A warmer atmosphere holds more moisture—about 7 percent more per
1°C of warming—and scientists have already observed a four percent
increase in atmospheric moisture due to the air’s ability to hold more
moisture as it warms. Storms supplied by climate change with increasing
moisture are widely observed to produce heavier rain and snow. Increased
atmospheric moisture content may also affect the El Niño Southern
Oscillation, which is a major driver of interannual climate variability,
by intensifying regional precipitation variability, and associated
extreme precipitation and drought events. Research indicates that the
increase in atmospheric moisture is primarily due to human-caused
increases in greenhouse gases.
Increased Extreme Precipitation
Global warming leads to an increase in both ocean evaporation into
the atmosphere and the amount of water vapor the atmosphere can hold.
High levels of water vapor in the atmosphere in turn create conditions
more favorable for heavy precipitation in the form of intense rain and
snow storms.
Increased Flooding Risk
Heavy precipitation is contributing to increased flooding around
the world. Flooding is worsened by regional climate trends such as
increases in heavy rain and snow, early snowmelt, and increased seasonal
precipitation. Flooding is also affected by non-climatic factors such
as land development, deforestation, levee placement and local
topography, making it challenging to determine an overarching climate
signal in flood trends.
Gulf Storm August 2016
A slow-moving storm system, fed by unusually warm seas in the Gulf
of Mexico, began on August 7 to unleash heavy rains in the Southeastern
United States. From Tuesday, August 9 through Sunday, August 14 the
storm inundated Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas,
killing three people. Five cities in Louisiana have reported rainfall
totals of over two feet. On August 11, a measure of atmospheric
moisture, precipitable water, was in historic territory at 2.78 inches, a
measurement higher than during some past hurricanes in the region.
Increased moisture in the air and unusually heavy rainfall are classic
signals of climate change. As the world warms, storms are able to feed
on warmer ocean waters, and the air is able to hold and dump more water.
These trends have led to a pronounced increase in intense rainfall
events and an increase in flooding risk. In the Southeastern US, extreme
precipitation has increased 27 percent from 1958 to 2012.
Links
15/08/2016
14/08/2016
Warming World May Put Most Cities Off-Limits For Summer Olympics
UC Berkeley - Joel Bahr
Among the findings, appearing in the The Lancet today: By 2085, only eight Northern Hemisphere cities outside of western Europe are likely to be cool enough to host the summer games. San Francisco would be one of just three North American cities that could serve as hosts.
The commentary, “The last Summer Olympics? Climate change, health and work outdoors,” is coauthored by UC Berkeley public health professor John Balmes, Alistair Woodward of the University of Auckland and Cindy Chang, the physician in charge of UC Berkeley’s athletic teams and the chief medical officer for Team USA at the 2012 London Olympics.
In the commentary, which comes from a larger study about climate change, the authors explain how their findings can be used to examine the viability of future Olympic sites based on a measurement that combines temperature, humidity, heat radiation, and wind — their wetbulb globe temperature (WBGT). Researchers used two climate models to project rising temperatures over the next century and applied those results to current safety procedures used in determining the viability of a host city.
The final study, which is still forthcoming and holds much broader implications than the future of outdoor Olympics, examines the relationship between health and productivity as the global climate continues to warm. The opening ceremonies of the 2016 games in Rio on Friday, however, did acknowledge climate change, and the impact that rising temperatures could have on the future of the games was not lost on Smith and his colleagues.
“Climate change could constrain the Olympics going forward,” said Smith, a professor of global environmental health in the School of Public Health. “And not just because of rising sea levels.”
The findings focused on the Northern Hemisphere, home to 90 percent of the world’s population. The authors considered only cities with at least 600,000 residents, the size considered necessary for hosting the games. Cities with elevations over a mile above sea level were omitted, as the most recent Olympic games hosted at such an altitude (Mexico City in 1968) faced challenges of their own.
The findings assumed that any venue with more than a 10 percent chance of having to cancel a marathon — one of the summer Olympics’ signature and exclusively outdoor events — on short notice would not be a viable host city.
“If you’re going to be spending billions of dollars to host an event, you’re going to want have a level of certainty that you’re not going to have to cancel it at the last minute,” Smith said.
The 10 percent criterion is currently used to evaluate potential sites of the winter games. If a potential host city is too unlikely to produce enough snow or cold enough temperatures, the chances of its bid winning decreases.
The findings indicate that by 2085, Istanbul, Madrid, Rome, Paris and Budapest – all cities that are or were in contention for either the 2020 or 2024 Summer Olympics – would be unfit to host the games. Tokyo, the city that has secured the 2020 summer Olympiad, would also be too hot to ensure athlete safety, should these projections come to pass.
According to the findings, eight out of 543 cities outside of western Europe would qualify as “low-risk” sites, including St. Petersburg, Russia; Riga, Latvia; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
In North America, Calgary and Vancouver would join San Francisco as the only three suitable sites. Both Canadian cities have hosted Olympics before — but the winter games, Calgary in 1988 and Vancouver in 2010. San Francisco explored the possibility of hosting this year’s summer games, but ultimately withdrew the bid in 2006.
Latin America and Africa combined would fail to provide a single viable city.
Western Europe is home to 25 cities that would be “low-risk” sites in 2085, according to the calculations.
But by the 22nd century, if their projections play out, the scientists concluded that only four Northern Hemisphere cities would be left on the list: Belfast and Dublin, Ireland; and Edinburgh and Glasgow in Scotland.
While these findings are concerned with the more distant future, being able to ensure athlete safety in the face of spiking temperatures is already an issue in outdoor summer competitions. In October 2007, the Chicago Marathon was canceled mid-race as hundreds of runners succumbed to the heat and sought medical attention. High temperatures also wreaked havoc this year during the U.S. Olympic Team trials marathon in Los Angeles, where 30 percent of the Olympic hopefuls failed to finish as the temperature on race day pushed 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
Should the findings reported in this commentary bear out, obvious work-arounds exist, such as running the Olympics indoors entirely or eliminating heat-sensitive endurance events like the marathon. Both solutions, however, would require a dramatic reimagining of how the modern Olympics are constructed.
“Climate change is going to force us to change our behavior from the way things have always been done,” said Smith. “This includes sending your kids outside to play soccer or going out for a jog. It is a substantially changing world. If the world’s most elite athletes need to be protected from climate change, what about the rest of us?”
Links
Among the findings, appearing in the The Lancet today: By 2085, only eight Northern Hemisphere cities outside of western Europe are likely to be cool enough to host the summer games. San Francisco would be one of just three North American cities that could serve as hosts.
The commentary, “The last Summer Olympics? Climate change, health and work outdoors,” is coauthored by UC Berkeley public health professor John Balmes, Alistair Woodward of the University of Auckland and Cindy Chang, the physician in charge of UC Berkeley’s athletic teams and the chief medical officer for Team USA at the 2012 London Olympics.
In the commentary, which comes from a larger study about climate change, the authors explain how their findings can be used to examine the viability of future Olympic sites based on a measurement that combines temperature, humidity, heat radiation, and wind — their wetbulb globe temperature (WBGT). Researchers used two climate models to project rising temperatures over the next century and applied those results to current safety procedures used in determining the viability of a host city.
The final study, which is still forthcoming and holds much broader implications than the future of outdoor Olympics, examines the relationship between health and productivity as the global climate continues to warm. The opening ceremonies of the 2016 games in Rio on Friday, however, did acknowledge climate change, and the impact that rising temperatures could have on the future of the games was not lost on Smith and his colleagues.
“Climate change could constrain the Olympics going forward,” said Smith, a professor of global environmental health in the School of Public Health. “And not just because of rising sea levels.”
The findings focused on the Northern Hemisphere, home to 90 percent of the world’s population. The authors considered only cities with at least 600,000 residents, the size considered necessary for hosting the games. Cities with elevations over a mile above sea level were omitted, as the most recent Olympic games hosted at such an altitude (Mexico City in 1968) faced challenges of their own.
The findings assumed that any venue with more than a 10 percent chance of having to cancel a marathon — one of the summer Olympics’ signature and exclusively outdoor events — on short notice would not be a viable host city.
“If you’re going to be spending billions of dollars to host an event, you’re going to want have a level of certainty that you’re not going to have to cancel it at the last minute,” Smith said.
The 10 percent criterion is currently used to evaluate potential sites of the winter games. If a potential host city is too unlikely to produce enough snow or cold enough temperatures, the chances of its bid winning decreases.
The findings indicate that by 2085, Istanbul, Madrid, Rome, Paris and Budapest – all cities that are or were in contention for either the 2020 or 2024 Summer Olympics – would be unfit to host the games. Tokyo, the city that has secured the 2020 summer Olympiad, would also be too hot to ensure athlete safety, should these projections come to pass.
According to the findings, eight out of 543 cities outside of western Europe would qualify as “low-risk” sites, including St. Petersburg, Russia; Riga, Latvia; Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan; and Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
In North America, Calgary and Vancouver would join San Francisco as the only three suitable sites. Both Canadian cities have hosted Olympics before — but the winter games, Calgary in 1988 and Vancouver in 2010. San Francisco explored the possibility of hosting this year’s summer games, but ultimately withdrew the bid in 2006.
Latin America and Africa combined would fail to provide a single viable city.
Western Europe is home to 25 cities that would be “low-risk” sites in 2085, according to the calculations.
But by the 22nd century, if their projections play out, the scientists concluded that only four Northern Hemisphere cities would be left on the list: Belfast and Dublin, Ireland; and Edinburgh and Glasgow in Scotland.
While these findings are concerned with the more distant future, being able to ensure athlete safety in the face of spiking temperatures is already an issue in outdoor summer competitions. In October 2007, the Chicago Marathon was canceled mid-race as hundreds of runners succumbed to the heat and sought medical attention. High temperatures also wreaked havoc this year during the U.S. Olympic Team trials marathon in Los Angeles, where 30 percent of the Olympic hopefuls failed to finish as the temperature on race day pushed 80 degrees Fahrenheit.
Should the findings reported in this commentary bear out, obvious work-arounds exist, such as running the Olympics indoors entirely or eliminating heat-sensitive endurance events like the marathon. Both solutions, however, would require a dramatic reimagining of how the modern Olympics are constructed.
“Climate change is going to force us to change our behavior from the way things have always been done,” said Smith. “This includes sending your kids outside to play soccer or going out for a jog. It is a substantially changing world. If the world’s most elite athletes need to be protected from climate change, what about the rest of us?”
Links
The Unique Burden of Covering Climate Change in the Middle East
Pacific Standard - Mark Schapiro
Some of climate change's earliest effects have desolated areas of the Middle East and destabilized regional governments. For local journalists to cover the problem, that requires finesse in navigating the tightly controlled press.
"We
must be elegant." This is how a Jordanian journalist describes how she
and her colleagues are learning to report on the environment in the
Middle East. That elegance — a capacity for finesse — is a requirement
to do such reporting: In many countries here, a media largely controlled
by royal governments and oligarchs is struggling to reckon with the
impacts of industrial development often conducted without significant
oversight by the government or by independent watchdogs. Every country
has a term for "the influentials," as I heard them referred to in
Jordan — the political and economic figures whose power is tied to
rulers or petro-princes who have been able to operate for many years
with impunity.
That is, slowly, starting to change as environmental degradations accumulate. A growing cadre of journalists is pursing assertive reporting on the deterioration that they see and experience daily, and which represents, for many of them, a more acute threat than the battles over radical Islam that dominate American coverage of the region. The limits of impunity are being tested by conditions you can see and smell — and by ever-increasing access to international scientific source material.
European powers sketched the national borders here almost a hundred years ago to facilitate Western access to oil. Now the region is at the frontline of disruptions caused by oil's collateral atmospheric damage, a sort of focal point for the Anthropocene — this era in which humans have become the primary influence on the planet's ecological conditions. According to a recent paper in Nature Climate Change, the Middle East is where the convergence of rising temperatures and intensifying drought are accelerating quicker than almost anywhere on Earth. One visceral example of the consequences: A significant contributing factor to the conflict in Syria, many scientists have suggested, was a five-year drought that exacerbated already tense relations between those close to the Assad regime and those excluded from its dispensing of favors and resources.
Over the past decade, ARIJ, a non-profit based in Amman, has been a galvanizing force in bringing methodologies and principles of investigative reporting to the Arab world, offering workshops, advice, and, in some cases, financial support to journalists in nine Arab countries. Most recently, ARIJ organized the Middle East contribution to the Panama Papers investigation, revealing the names of more than a hundred powerful Jordanian and Lebanese financial and political figures who had stashed funds or companies in offshore tax havens.
The Arab world hasn't had an abundance of role models like Seymour Hersh or Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein to look to for guidance and inspiration. ARIJ's founder and director, Rana Sabbagh, a former correspondent with Reuters and the Times of London, is hoping to fill that gap with a new generation of post-Arab Spring journalists.
The 14 participants in the ARIJ program hailed from Egypt, Tunisia, Palestine, Bahrain, and Jordan, most of them working for publications, radio, or television in their home countries. Some were attending at political risk. One journalist from Syria was unable to attend after the government in Turkey, where he and his family fled following his home country's civil war, refused to guarantee his ability to return.
About 15 minutes along a highway at 10:00 at night, in a taxi just after arriving in Jordan, I was jarred out of jet-lag by the exit sign for a turnoff, in Arabic and English: ″Iraqi border″ and, under that, ″Syrian border.″ A two-hour drive to the northeast, Iraq was still seething violently from the American invasion; due north was the brutal civil war in Syria, a conflict triggered partially by the impacts of the drought intensified by climate change, and from which as many as a thousand people a day flee into Jordan's hastily assembled refugee camps. We sped past. About five minutes later, coming into focus through the darkness alongside the highway, a long rectangular building with huge block letters painted on it in strangely familiar blue and yellow, "IKEA."
War to the left of me, furniture to the right, these two contrasting images seemed somehow emblematic of Jordan, sketched from the desert by the British in 1921 and promptly handed to a local monarch. Now it's a relatively stable redoubt in the region with the backing of foreign aid from the United States and other Western governments. Of all the Gulf countries, Jordan has by far the closest relations with the U.S. and Europe, a Western educated elite, and a middle class with a taste for the accouterments — even while it's consistently swept into the conflicts that rage across one of the planet's most volatile regions.
A day later, at our opening session, the journalists introduced themselves, and it was striking to hear of the common interests they share with their distant peers in the U.S. The struggle with violent fundamentalists hangs over every country in the region to varying degrees, for secular and religious Muslims alike, but what's at least equally if not more potent on a daily basis is the threat of environmental degradation and the predations of climate change. Like journalists everywhere, they want to understand it, explain it to their readers, point to those responsible, and help indicate how to stop it.
There's the journalist in Jordan who's been investigating the polluted river-water in Zarqa, the city's third-largest city, where the water is so tainted from local industries that it's unusable for farmers and residents who live in the environs. There's the Bahraini studying the cocktail of chemical effluents from factories there, and the cluster of cancers in surrounding neighborhoods; and the Tunisian writing about the impact of accumulating piles of old batteries leaking cadmium, mercury, and other toxins in the capital of Tunis. Both the Egyptian and Tunisian journalists spoke, independently, of what turns out to be a common concern, the disappearance of native seed varieties in North Africa as global seed companies come to dominate those markets.
And let's drop for a moment into Palestine, a place where our view is shaped almost entirely by reporting on violent clashes with Israel. Inside Palestine, meanwhile, journalists are attempting to carve out an independent space to report honestly and thoroughly on the environmental challenges they face.
Then there was the reporting feat accomplished by Maha Al-Bidiny, an independent journalist based in Cairo, who set off on her own to reveal the impact of fracking's expansion into rural Egypt, and the toxins released into the water supply of Egyptian farms. She had returned to the fields 19 times to convince the workers to allow a woman — her — to visit the sites that had been flooded with polluted waste water.
But while similarities in subject matter abound, and reporting strategies can be replicated, it's much harder to practice journalism in the Middle East than in the U.S. Many of the journalists I met are operating in a journalistic context that had opened, briefly, in the wake of the Arab Spring, but then closed.
Tunisia remains the major exception. According to Meriam Khadraoui, an editor and reporter at the Tunisian Press Service, there has been a flowering of independent press since the revolution in 2011. Before then, she recalled, her journalism was forcibly limited to writing mostly "stupid stories about nothing." Now she's starting up a team to do in-depth, investigative projects at the agency.
The rest of the Arab-speaking world, though, remains one of the most dangerous places to pursue journalism, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Certainly the reporters who pass through ARIJ are trying to navigate through a thorny journalistic space, and to respond to a population that, according to almost every one of the journalists, is becoming more environmentally aware and concerned. That space contracts and at times expands. Independent newspapers in Egypt and Jordan, as well as pan-Arab publications based in Lebanon and London, are at the forefront of testing, with "elegance," the boundaries of what is officially acceptable.
"Sometimes," says Rana Sabbagh, "there are imaginary lines in your brain. You have to push the boundaries to see where they are…. The main thing is to keep pushing, and get the facts right. Professionalism is the antidote to working in these kinds of regimes."
ARIJ also provides critical assistance, such as legal review of stories published under its purview; and, in some instances, assisting with publication in one of several Arab news outlets overseas, such as al Hayat, a pan-Arab daily based in Lebanon, and Alaraby Aljadeed, based in London, if the story is deemed too dangerous to publish at home.
As the Columbia Journalism Review recently expressed it, "a community of Arab investigative reporters exists even when it shouldn't." Environmental reporting is still relatively new to the region, and until now has been broadly limited to identifying sources of pollution but not necessarily the people responsible. What may lie ahead, however, is sobering: Journalists who have pursued corruption and human rights abuses, or who critique government policy, can find themselves under threat, imprisoned, or deported. In Egypt this June, one of the country's top TV journalists was fired after an ally of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi took over the station where she worked, and shortly thereafter deported back to her home country of Lebanon. Even relatively mild criticism of the government in Egypt can lead to dismissal, loss of a passport, or imprisonment. In other countries, the pressure can range from subtle — a discreet call to an editor — to more heavy-handed, as it's been in Egypt and Bahrain, both of which have imprisoned numerous journalists. The boundaries for environmental journalism are still being tested, and the journalists I met in Jordan will no doubt be at the forefront of finding out where they are.
Recognition of climate change itself is not controversial in the Middle East: All countries in the region submitted greenhouse gas reduction goals following the Paris climate talks, even though Saudi Arabia has been a key player in trying to slow the implementation of global initiatives. Alterations in the weather and the physical landscape are being experienced in all the Arab countries, by rich and poor alike — though the ability to deal with the consequences varies hugely across the socio-economic spectrum. Everyone is living through enormously volatile changes in the natural order that are a prime symptom of climate change, and which scientists have come to call "the death of stationarity" — the end of predictable patterns of rainfall and temperature. As baselines crumble, the Middle East and North Africa, by virtue of their place on the map, are among the hardest hit. And as climate change keeps putting the squeeze on water and arable land, social tensions over resources will only increase — which is how climate reporting can get very tense very fast.
The World Bank estimates that, by 2025, as rainfall diminishes in already dry areas and groundwater supplies are depleted, 80 to 100 million people in the region will be exposed to severe water stress. Already, the polluted Zarqa River in Jordan, like so many other rivers in the region, is running with dramatically less water than usual, which means less natural filtering of environmental toxins. Numerous studies, including one by a team from the University of California–Berkeley's Goldman School of Public Policy, forecast an increasingly violent struggle in an already tense region over water as these stresses increase. At current emission levels, according to the Max Planck Institute, a leading climate research center, temperatures are expected to soar to an average of 114 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050 and 122 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, along with more intense heat waves and less time between them, throughout the Middle East — and, to a lesser but still significant degree, in North Africa.
Prompted by growing knowledge of climate change's disruptive impacts, an umbrella group representing Islam's major spiritual leaders and thinkers issued the Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change last August, calling for action to reduce fossil fuels to limit global warming to, at most, 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius. This religiously based call for action was issued two months after the Pope's historic climate encyclical, though it received nowhere near the press attention. The Declaration did provide an important affirmation, to journalists and their editors, as well as political figures, that climate change is real and must be addressed. It may have provided some protective cover to non-governmental organizations that are emerging in the region, including IndyAct, which has emerged as a civil-society lobbying force.
Safa' Al Jayoussi, IndyAct's head of climate and energy, told the workshop that divisions are emerging between countries in the region that produce fossil fuel, and those which don't. For example, in Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan, there has been increasing attention on the development of solar and other renewable energy sources. Of course, creating renewable energy initiatives does not necessarily signal freedom of the press: Morocco, for example, will be hosting the next round of climate negotiations, but its media is still highly constrained in its ability to cover the king, his financial interests, and his powerful and wealthy court.
On my final day in Jordan, Rana Sabbagh took me on a field trip about an hour outside Amman to a hilltop castle in Aljoun, built in the 12th century to fight off the Crusaders. Nearby is the recorded birthplace of the Biblical figure Elijah. Standing atop the parapets, looking down on the ochre-colored hills, just past the ridges in the distance, one can see the city of Hebron in the West Bank; not far from there, in the haze of sunset, were Bethlehem and Jerusalem. Here, within a hundred-mile radius, you have the birthplace of two, and the key spawning ground of a third, of our major religions — Judaism, Christianity, Islam, each of them saturated in the soil and sweat of these rolling hills and olive orchards along the banks of the River Jordan.
That river, a defining feature of the Middle East's political troubles, is also central to our own iconography of salvation and deliverance — a landmark in the language of Martin Luther King and the black civil rights movement; a recurring metaphor of freedom and a lyrical reference point for American blues musicians. Now, over the course of its 156 miles, the river is a polluted trickle, the victim of water diversions and a shrinking water supply. Today the River Jordan is more powerful as a metaphor of depletion than as an actual river.
It's the desire to clean up that trickle, both as metaphor and as river, that is connecting the journalists of the region to each other, and to the rest of us, to hold the abusers of our common landscape to account.
Links
Some of climate change's earliest effects have desolated areas of the Middle East and destabilized regional governments. For local journalists to cover the problem, that requires finesse in navigating the tightly controlled press.
![]() |
| A herd of camels drinking a pool of polluted agricultural run-off in an otherwise dry riverbed near Jericho in the West Bank. (Photo: David Silverman/Getty Images) |
That is, slowly, starting to change as environmental degradations accumulate. A growing cadre of journalists is pursing assertive reporting on the deterioration that they see and experience daily, and which represents, for many of them, a more acute threat than the battles over radical Islam that dominate American coverage of the region. The limits of impunity are being tested by conditions you can see and smell — and by ever-increasing access to international scientific source material.
European powers sketched the national borders here almost a hundred years ago to facilitate Western access to oil. Now the region is at the frontline of disruptions caused by oil's collateral atmospheric damage, a sort of focal point for the Anthropocene — this era in which humans have become the primary influence on the planet's ecological conditions. According to a recent paper in Nature Climate Change, the Middle East is where the convergence of rising temperatures and intensifying drought are accelerating quicker than almost anywhere on Earth. One visceral example of the consequences: A significant contributing factor to the conflict in Syria, many scientists have suggested, was a five-year drought that exacerbated already tense relations between those close to the Assad regime and those excluded from its dispensing of favors and resources.
The struggle with violent fundamentalists hangs over every country in the region to varying degrees, for secular and religious Muslims alike, but what's at least equally if not more potent on a daily basis is the threat of environmental degradation and the predations of climate change.There is perhaps no better way to glimpse how the environmental tensions are playing out than by spending time with the journalists who are struggling to keep pace with them. Recently, I went to Amman, Jordan, to conduct a one-week master's workshop in investigative environmental reporting at the invitation of the Arab Reporters for Investigative Journalism and ended up learning as much from them as, I'd like to think, they did from me.
Over the past decade, ARIJ, a non-profit based in Amman, has been a galvanizing force in bringing methodologies and principles of investigative reporting to the Arab world, offering workshops, advice, and, in some cases, financial support to journalists in nine Arab countries. Most recently, ARIJ organized the Middle East contribution to the Panama Papers investigation, revealing the names of more than a hundred powerful Jordanian and Lebanese financial and political figures who had stashed funds or companies in offshore tax havens.
The Arab world hasn't had an abundance of role models like Seymour Hersh or Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein to look to for guidance and inspiration. ARIJ's founder and director, Rana Sabbagh, a former correspondent with Reuters and the Times of London, is hoping to fill that gap with a new generation of post-Arab Spring journalists.
The 14 participants in the ARIJ program hailed from Egypt, Tunisia, Palestine, Bahrain, and Jordan, most of them working for publications, radio, or television in their home countries. Some were attending at political risk. One journalist from Syria was unable to attend after the government in Turkey, where he and his family fled following his home country's civil war, refused to guarantee his ability to return.
About 15 minutes along a highway at 10:00 at night, in a taxi just after arriving in Jordan, I was jarred out of jet-lag by the exit sign for a turnoff, in Arabic and English: ″Iraqi border″ and, under that, ″Syrian border.″ A two-hour drive to the northeast, Iraq was still seething violently from the American invasion; due north was the brutal civil war in Syria, a conflict triggered partially by the impacts of the drought intensified by climate change, and from which as many as a thousand people a day flee into Jordan's hastily assembled refugee camps. We sped past. About five minutes later, coming into focus through the darkness alongside the highway, a long rectangular building with huge block letters painted on it in strangely familiar blue and yellow, "IKEA."
War to the left of me, furniture to the right, these two contrasting images seemed somehow emblematic of Jordan, sketched from the desert by the British in 1921 and promptly handed to a local monarch. Now it's a relatively stable redoubt in the region with the backing of foreign aid from the United States and other Western governments. Of all the Gulf countries, Jordan has by far the closest relations with the U.S. and Europe, a Western educated elite, and a middle class with a taste for the accouterments — even while it's consistently swept into the conflicts that rage across one of the planet's most volatile regions.
A day later, at our opening session, the journalists introduced themselves, and it was striking to hear of the common interests they share with their distant peers in the U.S. The struggle with violent fundamentalists hangs over every country in the region to varying degrees, for secular and religious Muslims alike, but what's at least equally if not more potent on a daily basis is the threat of environmental degradation and the predations of climate change. Like journalists everywhere, they want to understand it, explain it to their readers, point to those responsible, and help indicate how to stop it.
There's the journalist in Jordan who's been investigating the polluted river-water in Zarqa, the city's third-largest city, where the water is so tainted from local industries that it's unusable for farmers and residents who live in the environs. There's the Bahraini studying the cocktail of chemical effluents from factories there, and the cluster of cancers in surrounding neighborhoods; and the Tunisian writing about the impact of accumulating piles of old batteries leaking cadmium, mercury, and other toxins in the capital of Tunis. Both the Egyptian and Tunisian journalists spoke, independently, of what turns out to be a common concern, the disappearance of native seed varieties in North Africa as global seed companies come to dominate those markets.
And let's drop for a moment into Palestine, a place where our view is shaped almost entirely by reporting on violent clashes with Israel. Inside Palestine, meanwhile, journalists are attempting to carve out an independent space to report honestly and thoroughly on the environmental challenges they face.
"Professionalism is the antidote to working in these kinds of regimes."Firas Taweel, a TV and radio journalist with the AyjaL Radio Network, is probing into the health impact of diesel fuel pollution emitted by Palestine's trucks and cars. Ruba Anabtawi Alloun, a writer for Afaq Environmental Magazine, affiliated with BirZeit University, has been investigating illegal logging by Palestinians and Israeli settlers inside one of the few protected forests of Palestine.
Then there was the reporting feat accomplished by Maha Al-Bidiny, an independent journalist based in Cairo, who set off on her own to reveal the impact of fracking's expansion into rural Egypt, and the toxins released into the water supply of Egyptian farms. She had returned to the fields 19 times to convince the workers to allow a woman — her — to visit the sites that had been flooded with polluted waste water.
But while similarities in subject matter abound, and reporting strategies can be replicated, it's much harder to practice journalism in the Middle East than in the U.S. Many of the journalists I met are operating in a journalistic context that had opened, briefly, in the wake of the Arab Spring, but then closed.
Tunisia remains the major exception. According to Meriam Khadraoui, an editor and reporter at the Tunisian Press Service, there has been a flowering of independent press since the revolution in 2011. Before then, she recalled, her journalism was forcibly limited to writing mostly "stupid stories about nothing." Now she's starting up a team to do in-depth, investigative projects at the agency.
The rest of the Arab-speaking world, though, remains one of the most dangerous places to pursue journalism, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. Certainly the reporters who pass through ARIJ are trying to navigate through a thorny journalistic space, and to respond to a population that, according to almost every one of the journalists, is becoming more environmentally aware and concerned. That space contracts and at times expands. Independent newspapers in Egypt and Jordan, as well as pan-Arab publications based in Lebanon and London, are at the forefront of testing, with "elegance," the boundaries of what is officially acceptable.
"Sometimes," says Rana Sabbagh, "there are imaginary lines in your brain. You have to push the boundaries to see where they are…. The main thing is to keep pushing, and get the facts right. Professionalism is the antidote to working in these kinds of regimes."
ARIJ also provides critical assistance, such as legal review of stories published under its purview; and, in some instances, assisting with publication in one of several Arab news outlets overseas, such as al Hayat, a pan-Arab daily based in Lebanon, and Alaraby Aljadeed, based in London, if the story is deemed too dangerous to publish at home.
As the Columbia Journalism Review recently expressed it, "a community of Arab investigative reporters exists even when it shouldn't." Environmental reporting is still relatively new to the region, and until now has been broadly limited to identifying sources of pollution but not necessarily the people responsible. What may lie ahead, however, is sobering: Journalists who have pursued corruption and human rights abuses, or who critique government policy, can find themselves under threat, imprisoned, or deported. In Egypt this June, one of the country's top TV journalists was fired after an ally of President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi took over the station where she worked, and shortly thereafter deported back to her home country of Lebanon. Even relatively mild criticism of the government in Egypt can lead to dismissal, loss of a passport, or imprisonment. In other countries, the pressure can range from subtle — a discreet call to an editor — to more heavy-handed, as it's been in Egypt and Bahrain, both of which have imprisoned numerous journalists. The boundaries for environmental journalism are still being tested, and the journalists I met in Jordan will no doubt be at the forefront of finding out where they are.
Recognition of climate change itself is not controversial in the Middle East: All countries in the region submitted greenhouse gas reduction goals following the Paris climate talks, even though Saudi Arabia has been a key player in trying to slow the implementation of global initiatives. Alterations in the weather and the physical landscape are being experienced in all the Arab countries, by rich and poor alike — though the ability to deal with the consequences varies hugely across the socio-economic spectrum. Everyone is living through enormously volatile changes in the natural order that are a prime symptom of climate change, and which scientists have come to call "the death of stationarity" — the end of predictable patterns of rainfall and temperature. As baselines crumble, the Middle East and North Africa, by virtue of their place on the map, are among the hardest hit. And as climate change keeps putting the squeeze on water and arable land, social tensions over resources will only increase — which is how climate reporting can get very tense very fast.
The World Bank estimates that, by 2025, as rainfall diminishes in already dry areas and groundwater supplies are depleted, 80 to 100 million people in the region will be exposed to severe water stress. Already, the polluted Zarqa River in Jordan, like so many other rivers in the region, is running with dramatically less water than usual, which means less natural filtering of environmental toxins. Numerous studies, including one by a team from the University of California–Berkeley's Goldman School of Public Policy, forecast an increasingly violent struggle in an already tense region over water as these stresses increase. At current emission levels, according to the Max Planck Institute, a leading climate research center, temperatures are expected to soar to an average of 114 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050 and 122 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century, along with more intense heat waves and less time between them, throughout the Middle East — and, to a lesser but still significant degree, in North Africa.
Today the River Jordan is more powerful as a metaphor of depletion than as an actual river.Or consider native seeds. Those disappearing seeds are treasured not only for their central role in the evolution of North African agriculture — and thus North African culture — but also for their ability to respond to heat and drought conditions without the need for massive applications of chemical fertilizers and pesticides — a major downside to the new seeds entering the market.
Prompted by growing knowledge of climate change's disruptive impacts, an umbrella group representing Islam's major spiritual leaders and thinkers issued the Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change last August, calling for action to reduce fossil fuels to limit global warming to, at most, 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius. This religiously based call for action was issued two months after the Pope's historic climate encyclical, though it received nowhere near the press attention. The Declaration did provide an important affirmation, to journalists and their editors, as well as political figures, that climate change is real and must be addressed. It may have provided some protective cover to non-governmental organizations that are emerging in the region, including IndyAct, which has emerged as a civil-society lobbying force.
Safa' Al Jayoussi, IndyAct's head of climate and energy, told the workshop that divisions are emerging between countries in the region that produce fossil fuel, and those which don't. For example, in Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan, there has been increasing attention on the development of solar and other renewable energy sources. Of course, creating renewable energy initiatives does not necessarily signal freedom of the press: Morocco, for example, will be hosting the next round of climate negotiations, but its media is still highly constrained in its ability to cover the king, his financial interests, and his powerful and wealthy court.
On my final day in Jordan, Rana Sabbagh took me on a field trip about an hour outside Amman to a hilltop castle in Aljoun, built in the 12th century to fight off the Crusaders. Nearby is the recorded birthplace of the Biblical figure Elijah. Standing atop the parapets, looking down on the ochre-colored hills, just past the ridges in the distance, one can see the city of Hebron in the West Bank; not far from there, in the haze of sunset, were Bethlehem and Jerusalem. Here, within a hundred-mile radius, you have the birthplace of two, and the key spawning ground of a third, of our major religions — Judaism, Christianity, Islam, each of them saturated in the soil and sweat of these rolling hills and olive orchards along the banks of the River Jordan.
That river, a defining feature of the Middle East's political troubles, is also central to our own iconography of salvation and deliverance — a landmark in the language of Martin Luther King and the black civil rights movement; a recurring metaphor of freedom and a lyrical reference point for American blues musicians. Now, over the course of its 156 miles, the river is a polluted trickle, the victim of water diversions and a shrinking water supply. Today the River Jordan is more powerful as a metaphor of depletion than as an actual river.
It's the desire to clean up that trickle, both as metaphor and as river, that is connecting the journalists of the region to each other, and to the rest of us, to hold the abusers of our common landscape to account.
Links
- The worst heat waves to come
- Against the odds, investigative journalism persists in the Middle East
- Water Is Focus of Climate Change in Middle East and North Africa
- Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict
- Islamic Declaration on Global Climate Change
- For Climate Scientists, the Siberian Anthrax Outbreak Is a Sign of What’s to Come
Panel Offers Advice On How To Combat Climate-Change "Neoskepticism"
Phys.org - Bob Yirka
A small panel of researchers has addressed what they suggest is a new threat to combating climate change—neoskepticism—where people believe climate change is real, but do not believe there is anything that can be done about it, by penning a letter addressing adherents in a Policy Forum piece in the journal Science.
The essayists, Paul Stern with the National Research Council, John Perkins with The Evergreen State College, Richard Sparks with the University of Illinois and Robert Knox with the University of California outline the ideas behind neoskepticism, explain why they think it is dangerous and then offer some ideas on how to address related issues or concerns.
The researchers begin by noting that in addition to deniers (who they suggest are typically out for political gain) there are now people they describe as neoskeptics—people who believe that using money to combat the problem of rising global temperatures due to human greenhouse gas emissions is a waste, in large part because scientists cannot prove one way or another what might happen.
They suggest this new way people have of dealing with climate change needs to be addressed by the scientific community because it represents a new threat to undoing the movement to curb emissions.
The authors suggest that the crux of such arguments boils down to differences of opinion regarding a tipping point, and indeed if there even is one.
But they note such arguments ignore the enormity of acting as if there is no reason to worry, pointing out that the longer we wait to curtail emissions the higher the risk of extreme negative environmental impacts.
They suggest that the scientific community needs to start working under previously encountered uncertainty situations, such as when chemicals like DDT were outlawed.
They further suggest that the way to prevent neoskepticism from creeping into the national debate is for the scientific community to find better ways to frame the debate.
Instead of offering doom and gloom scenarios, they propose, why not offer ideas in ways that are familiar to people, such as comparing the risk of continuing on in our dangerous ways with people buying life insurance.
The authors conclude by acknowledging that offering better models to the public to help combat efforts by those arguing against making efforts to combat climate change likely will not end skepticism, but they believe it just might help those in position to make decisions, make better ones.
Links
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| Credit: public domain |
The essayists, Paul Stern with the National Research Council, John Perkins with The Evergreen State College, Richard Sparks with the University of Illinois and Robert Knox with the University of California outline the ideas behind neoskepticism, explain why they think it is dangerous and then offer some ideas on how to address related issues or concerns.
The researchers begin by noting that in addition to deniers (who they suggest are typically out for political gain) there are now people they describe as neoskeptics—people who believe that using money to combat the problem of rising global temperatures due to human greenhouse gas emissions is a waste, in large part because scientists cannot prove one way or another what might happen.
They suggest this new way people have of dealing with climate change needs to be addressed by the scientific community because it represents a new threat to undoing the movement to curb emissions.
The authors suggest that the crux of such arguments boils down to differences of opinion regarding a tipping point, and indeed if there even is one.
But they note such arguments ignore the enormity of acting as if there is no reason to worry, pointing out that the longer we wait to curtail emissions the higher the risk of extreme negative environmental impacts.
They suggest that the scientific community needs to start working under previously encountered uncertainty situations, such as when chemicals like DDT were outlawed.
They further suggest that the way to prevent neoskepticism from creeping into the national debate is for the scientific community to find better ways to frame the debate.
Instead of offering doom and gloom scenarios, they propose, why not offer ideas in ways that are familiar to people, such as comparing the risk of continuing on in our dangerous ways with people buying life insurance.
The authors conclude by acknowledging that offering better models to the public to help combat efforts by those arguing against making efforts to combat climate change likely will not end skepticism, but they believe it just might help those in position to make decisions, make better ones.
Links
- As global temperatures rise, children must be central climate change debates
- Climate change already accelerating sea level rise, study finds
- Caught in the act: first videos of coral bleaching behaviour
- Wind power fiercer than expected, study
- New study finds options for climate change policy are well characterized
13/08/2016
Drones for Climate and Security
The Center for Climate & Security - Sinead O’Sullivan
In their initial conception, drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs), were used exclusively in the context of military missions –
providing reconnaissance, intelligence and surveillance in hostile
environments unsafe for human involvement, with a new weapons
capability. While drones are still popularly perceived in their military
context, their uses have spread far beyond those applications. Drones
are expanding rapidly in the commercial side of the aerospace industry,
and significant technology transfer is moving from the drones’ military
beginnings and into the hands of the civilian consumer.
One space where drones straddle military and civilian applications is in regards to a changing climate and the security consequences that follow. This is especially the case in regards to earth observation and disaster management.
Earth observation
Earth observation (EO) in the context of climate and security can be manifested in several ways, and generally involves collecting data about particular environmental conditions. Drones are proving useful for the collection of climate change related data that has been historically very difficult to record. One such example is the use of drones to measure the rate at which glaciers in the Peruvian Andes are diminishing.
Traditionally, pole markers are placed over the glacier and changes of the glacier are recorded by physically walking the glaciers, and extrapolating information in between. Now this data collection takes minutes to collect instead of months, and data analysis can be performed immediately. Creating this data so quickly and more accurately than before is changing the way that climate scientists are able to create models and forecasts in such an unpredictable climate. This strategy, being implemented by Ohio State University, is aimed at creating a template for research teams that are investigating water security in other areas of the world with much larger populations, including China and India. In these areas, data collection is currently inhibited by both economic and environmental constraints and the global consequences of water insecurity are much more severe.
Related to human security, EO drones are now being used to monitor human rights violations and predict climate-related conflict in high-risk areas. Food and natural resource shortages due to climate change are exacerbated by a population increase, further straining regional capacity to provide human security in some areas. In the Republic of South Sudan, the cultivable land area is being negatively impacted by climate change. Large-scale land use changes have been monitored by EO techniques, and quantifying these changes has shown linkages between the right to access land and conflicts in 2011. Serving as one of the frictions that led South Sudan into war during its attempted transition towards independence, it is shown that being able to use EO to create models that can help predict climate-exacerbated conflict is critical.
Disaster management
The process of climate change, and the increasing scale of natural disasters that encompasses this change, is triggering complex patterns of human mobility and natural resource allocation– both key drivers of instability to international security threats. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (SPIDER) have identified the importance of national and international agencies strengthening their disaster management to reduce these threats. The disaster management process refers to the creation of long-term, sustainable plans through which communities can diminish their vulnerability to natural and humanitarian hazards and disasters. There are four main steps involved in the process: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.
Natural disaster management is becoming increasingly important both domestically and globally. Drones have shown examples of being a critical technology for the preparedness and response stage of disaster management, by both monitoring climate conditions that are used to forecast disasters and by providing real-time data on the field immediately after a disaster.
In Nepal for example, the amateur drone organization Humanitarian UAV Network was able to map the earthquake-destroyed city of Kathmandu and surrounding areas with drones when most other official communications- human and technological- had failed due to the disaster. Being able to map a disaster-stricken area allows the flow of information and thus aid to the most impacted areas, drastically lowering the cost and risk of response missions and reducing the negative long-term impact on the victims. Furthermore, drones are being tested to monitor and track human migration through disasters from the initial response phase to the recovery phase where mass migration is unpredictable and threatens human security. With an increasing number of large-scale natural disasters due to climate change, finding an effective implementation of disaster management that integrates all of the technological platforms available is becoming a global imperative.
Conclusion
We are faced with a new era of climate change leading to unpredictable weather patterns, increased large-scale disasters and a strain on access to natural resources. As the severity of this phenomenon increases, the impact is being felt through international tensions, a reduction in the global economy and threats to domestic and international security. Governments must work intrinsically to build domestic capabilities to deal with such changes, but also recognize that this is a universal problem that will only be mitigated through international cooperation.
Access to readily available data is a significant prerequisite for comprehensively mitigating climate risks to national and international security. As technological capabilities increase, international institutions, governments and publics should seek to implement advanced data collection methods through drones. In this way, the international community can become more versatile in how it helps prevent and respond to the security implications of a changing climate in a secure, economic and timely manner.
Links
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A UN Unmanned/Unarmed Aerial Vehicles (UAV) at Goma airport for UN Peacekeeping Operations MONUSCO/Sylvain Liechti
|
One space where drones straddle military and civilian applications is in regards to a changing climate and the security consequences that follow. This is especially the case in regards to earth observation and disaster management.
Earth observation
Earth observation (EO) in the context of climate and security can be manifested in several ways, and generally involves collecting data about particular environmental conditions. Drones are proving useful for the collection of climate change related data that has been historically very difficult to record. One such example is the use of drones to measure the rate at which glaciers in the Peruvian Andes are diminishing.
Traditionally, pole markers are placed over the glacier and changes of the glacier are recorded by physically walking the glaciers, and extrapolating information in between. Now this data collection takes minutes to collect instead of months, and data analysis can be performed immediately. Creating this data so quickly and more accurately than before is changing the way that climate scientists are able to create models and forecasts in such an unpredictable climate. This strategy, being implemented by Ohio State University, is aimed at creating a template for research teams that are investigating water security in other areas of the world with much larger populations, including China and India. In these areas, data collection is currently inhibited by both economic and environmental constraints and the global consequences of water insecurity are much more severe.
Related to human security, EO drones are now being used to monitor human rights violations and predict climate-related conflict in high-risk areas. Food and natural resource shortages due to climate change are exacerbated by a population increase, further straining regional capacity to provide human security in some areas. In the Republic of South Sudan, the cultivable land area is being negatively impacted by climate change. Large-scale land use changes have been monitored by EO techniques, and quantifying these changes has shown linkages between the right to access land and conflicts in 2011. Serving as one of the frictions that led South Sudan into war during its attempted transition towards independence, it is shown that being able to use EO to create models that can help predict climate-exacerbated conflict is critical.
Disaster management
The process of climate change, and the increasing scale of natural disasters that encompasses this change, is triggering complex patterns of human mobility and natural resource allocation– both key drivers of instability to international security threats. The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response (SPIDER) have identified the importance of national and international agencies strengthening their disaster management to reduce these threats. The disaster management process refers to the creation of long-term, sustainable plans through which communities can diminish their vulnerability to natural and humanitarian hazards and disasters. There are four main steps involved in the process: mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery.
Natural disaster management is becoming increasingly important both domestically and globally. Drones have shown examples of being a critical technology for the preparedness and response stage of disaster management, by both monitoring climate conditions that are used to forecast disasters and by providing real-time data on the field immediately after a disaster.
In Nepal for example, the amateur drone organization Humanitarian UAV Network was able to map the earthquake-destroyed city of Kathmandu and surrounding areas with drones when most other official communications- human and technological- had failed due to the disaster. Being able to map a disaster-stricken area allows the flow of information and thus aid to the most impacted areas, drastically lowering the cost and risk of response missions and reducing the negative long-term impact on the victims. Furthermore, drones are being tested to monitor and track human migration through disasters from the initial response phase to the recovery phase where mass migration is unpredictable and threatens human security. With an increasing number of large-scale natural disasters due to climate change, finding an effective implementation of disaster management that integrates all of the technological platforms available is becoming a global imperative.
Conclusion
We are faced with a new era of climate change leading to unpredictable weather patterns, increased large-scale disasters and a strain on access to natural resources. As the severity of this phenomenon increases, the impact is being felt through international tensions, a reduction in the global economy and threats to domestic and international security. Governments must work intrinsically to build domestic capabilities to deal with such changes, but also recognize that this is a universal problem that will only be mitigated through international cooperation.
Access to readily available data is a significant prerequisite for comprehensively mitigating climate risks to national and international security. As technological capabilities increase, international institutions, governments and publics should seek to implement advanced data collection methods through drones. In this way, the international community can become more versatile in how it helps prevent and respond to the security implications of a changing climate in a secure, economic and timely manner.
Links
- A Storm Without Rain: Yemen, Water, Climate Change, and Conflict
- Six Conflict Prevention Takeaways from New Climate and Conflict Research
- CIA Director on the Geopolitical Risks of Climate Geoengineering
- Do We Need a New Climate Risk Regime?
- General Keys: The military thinks climate change is serious
Many Countries Will Need Help Adapting to Climate Change
New York Times - The Editorial Board
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported last
week that global temperatures last year were the highest on record —
and that this year is likely to be hotter still. That is a powerful
reason for rich countries to begin making good on their promises to help
low-lying island nations, some of the poorest countries in the world,
build their defenses against the disastrous effects of climate change, which some are already experiencing.
In the Solomon Islands, receding shorelines have destroyed some villages and rising sea levels have submerged five uninhabited islands, according to a study published in May. Drinking water is becoming increasingly scarce in Kiribati, another Pacific Ocean nation, as wells run dry or become contaminated by saltwater. And droughts appear to have become more intense in Africa and the Middle East and are probably a contributing factor to the migration of millions of people to Europe in recent years.
At last year's United Nations climate summit meeting in Paris, countries agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, a point beyond which the widespread drought, flooding and extinctions of species are expected to kick in. But even if the world meets that target — and the various national plans offered in Paris to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are still not strong enough to get there — many poor countries will still be vulnerable to warmer temperatures, higher sea levels and more frequent natural disasters. Some small island nations could disappear entirely in the coming decades.
While it's hard to connect any single natural disaster to climate change, weather-related calamities worldwide have increased in recent years. There were an average of 335 such disasters a year between 2005 and 2014 — nearly twice the yearly average from 1985 to 1994, according to a report by the United Nations and the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. And these disasters are more severe and more likely to displace people, according to a 2015 report by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center and the Norwegian Refugee Council. Last year, about 19.2 million people fled their homes because of disasters.
Developing countries will not be able to make the investments needed to survive conditions brought on by global warming — nor should they have to do so alone, as a matter of fairness. Poor countries are responsible for only a small share of all greenhouse gas emissions. Industrialized nations bear the greatest responsibility for climate change. It is also in their interest to help the rest of the world adapt, because experts expect that tens of millions to several hundred million people will be displaced by climate change. Most will move within their countries, but some of them inevitably will seek refuge in developed nations because they have no other place to go.
In 2014, the world's leading powers and institutions, like the World Bank, committed about $25 billion to help developing nations adapt to climate change, according to a United Nations report published in May. Developed countries have said that they will increase their support, to $100 billion a year starting in 2020, to help developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. That promise was made at the climate meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 and reaffirmed in Paris. (Hillary Clinton, then secretary of state, was a major force behind the 2009 pledge.) But that falls far short of the United Nations report's estimate that between $140 billion and $300 billion a year will be needed for adaptation by 2030.
Some of that spending would go toward building warning systems like those that exist for tsunamis, as well as stronger barriers against storm surges. Developing countries will also need to improve water conservation and flood management, restore wetlands and strengthen building codes.
Increases in temperatures and sea levels are likely to reduce agricultural yields, forcing more people to migrate to crowded cities. That's why political leaders need to start making policy changes that could take years to have an impact — like helping farmers switch to other crops and investing in infrastructure and housing in urban areas. While the world ponders ways to reduce emissions, the consequences of climate change are already underway.
Links
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| Eleni Kalorkoti |
In the Solomon Islands, receding shorelines have destroyed some villages and rising sea levels have submerged five uninhabited islands, according to a study published in May. Drinking water is becoming increasingly scarce in Kiribati, another Pacific Ocean nation, as wells run dry or become contaminated by saltwater. And droughts appear to have become more intense in Africa and the Middle East and are probably a contributing factor to the migration of millions of people to Europe in recent years.
At last year's United Nations climate summit meeting in Paris, countries agreed to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above preindustrial levels, a point beyond which the widespread drought, flooding and extinctions of species are expected to kick in. But even if the world meets that target — and the various national plans offered in Paris to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are still not strong enough to get there — many poor countries will still be vulnerable to warmer temperatures, higher sea levels and more frequent natural disasters. Some small island nations could disappear entirely in the coming decades.
While it's hard to connect any single natural disaster to climate change, weather-related calamities worldwide have increased in recent years. There were an average of 335 such disasters a year between 2005 and 2014 — nearly twice the yearly average from 1985 to 1994, according to a report by the United Nations and the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. And these disasters are more severe and more likely to displace people, according to a 2015 report by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center and the Norwegian Refugee Council. Last year, about 19.2 million people fled their homes because of disasters.
Developing countries will not be able to make the investments needed to survive conditions brought on by global warming — nor should they have to do so alone, as a matter of fairness. Poor countries are responsible for only a small share of all greenhouse gas emissions. Industrialized nations bear the greatest responsibility for climate change. It is also in their interest to help the rest of the world adapt, because experts expect that tens of millions to several hundred million people will be displaced by climate change. Most will move within their countries, but some of them inevitably will seek refuge in developed nations because they have no other place to go.
In 2014, the world's leading powers and institutions, like the World Bank, committed about $25 billion to help developing nations adapt to climate change, according to a United Nations report published in May. Developed countries have said that they will increase their support, to $100 billion a year starting in 2020, to help developing countries reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. That promise was made at the climate meeting in Copenhagen in 2009 and reaffirmed in Paris. (Hillary Clinton, then secretary of state, was a major force behind the 2009 pledge.) But that falls far short of the United Nations report's estimate that between $140 billion and $300 billion a year will be needed for adaptation by 2030.
Some of that spending would go toward building warning systems like those that exist for tsunamis, as well as stronger barriers against storm surges. Developing countries will also need to improve water conservation and flood management, restore wetlands and strengthen building codes.
Increases in temperatures and sea levels are likely to reduce agricultural yields, forcing more people to migrate to crowded cities. That's why political leaders need to start making policy changes that could take years to have an impact — like helping farmers switch to other crops and investing in infrastructure and housing in urban areas. While the world ponders ways to reduce emissions, the consequences of climate change are already underway.
Links
Seven Ways Climate Change Affects Our Health
Huffington Post - Katharine Hayhoe

Climate change is making heat waves stronger and more frequent, air pollution worse, and allowing vector-borne diseases to expand their range. It's also compromising our drinking water, causing more extreme weather events, and impacting our mental health. And the costs will be great: just this June, the World Health Organization estimated that in the twenty years after 2030, climate change will cause "approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress."
1. Heatwaves
Thanks to climate change, we're already seeing stronger, longer, and more frequent heatwaves. People — particularly the very young and very old — don't cope well with in these conditions. In 2003, some 70,000 people died in the European heat wave, and last summer more than 2,000 perished in India and southwest Asia. But the problems from heat aren't just happening on the other side of the globe. Here in the U.S., people who spend a lot of time outdoors — farm workers, construction crews, even athletes — are feeling the effects of warmer days. The Texas Rangers want to build a new billion-dollar stadium with a retractable roof, an expensive feature that owner Ray Davis called "a must to counter the scorching heat in the summer." But most people don't have the resources to spend to adapt to new conditions like that, and so instead will just suffer in the heat.
2. Air Pollution
Air pollution, whether it's the heavy smog that shrouds Los Angeles or the fine dust that burns our lungs in China, isn't causing climate change. But climate change is making air pollution worse! And the stakes are high: air pollution already causes an estimated 7 million premature deaths across the globe each year. Air pollution is made up a variety of things, including ground-level ozone, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and carbon monoxide, and when we breathe those in, we get sick. As the planet grows warmer due to climate change, the reactions that form ground-level ozone — one of the most dangerous things for us to inhale — happen faster. And climate change also affects our weather patterns. As the earth grows warmer, we're seeing more high-pressure systems. And a high-pressure system stuck over an area can trap local pollution and particulate matter, preventing it from being blown away, and so the area's residents will keep breathing it in.
3. Vector-Borne Diseases
What do zika, chikungunya, dengue, and malaria have in common? They're all vector-borne diseases spread by mosquitos. And insect ranges are often determined by climate. So if climate is changing, that means the geographic extent of many of these diseases will, too. In some cases, a disease could move into a new region where it's never been seen before, like we're seeing in Canada with Lyme disease, a devastating condition that used to be so unusual north of the border, it wasn't even on Health Canada's list of treatable diseases. In other instances, as it gets warmer a disease could move out of its current region — like our research has shown is likely to be the case for dengue in Texas in the summer. And in yet other cases, a disease could re-emerge in a place where it was eradicated a century ago — like malaria in Chicago.
4. Water-Borne Diseases
Climate change is also leading to more deaths from diarrhea, which is already the second leading cause of death for kids under five around the world. How is that, you may wonder? Well, a warmer atmosphere speeds up the hydrological cycle, leading to more periods of extreme precipitation. Heavier rainfall often means higher risk of flooding. And flooding — particularly in nations where drinking water is at risk of being contaminated with garbage, animal manure, and even human waste — can be deadly. "Runoff from more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events will increasingly compromise sources of drinking water through increased introduction of pathogens and prevalence of toxic algal blooms. As a result, the risk of human exposure to agents of water-related illness will increase," says the 2016 Climate and Health Assessment.
5. Extreme Weather Hazards
Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, heavy downpours, and flooding, all of which can affect our health and well-being, and we're seeing more of them as the climate changes. These events can harm or even kill us; they can prevent us from getting the medical care we need, turning a trivial concern into a life-threatening illness; and they can sweep away cars, homes, businesses, and harvests. "Earth has always experienced epic storms, debilitating drought, and biblical floods. But lately it seems the treadmill of disruptive weather has been set to fast-forward," writes Paul Douglas, a professional meteorologist and — like me — someone whose faith motivates his concern on this issue. Let's zero in one just one type of extreme event: a hurricane. There are all sorts of risks that crop up in the aftermath of a hurricane. If your power goes out and you have to run a generator in your house, you run the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning if you don't set the generator up correctly. Or let's say it's flooding and your car gets swept away and you run the risk of drowning. Thanks to climate change, we're seeing more hurricanes and so are more exposed to these risks.
6. Our Mental Health
Climate change, and the increasing risk of weather extremes that accompanies it, has a direct impact on our mental well-being. "Many people exposed to climate related or weather-related disasters experience stress and serious mental health consequences ... [including] post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and general anxiety," says the 2016 US Climate and Health Assessment. Last year, when I was working with the city of Boulder on climate preparedness, an emergency room doctor told me that extreme weather is one of the biggest challenges they face in counseling people with long-term mental health issues. If a patient misses one appointment due to snow, flooding, or other situations that prevent travel, there is a big chance they will fail to keep their next one, and the next, and their problems — some of which may have been on the road to recovery — will resurface in full force. That's not all, though. Sometimes just thinking about climate change can overload us. As the American Psychological Association says, "mental health impacts of actual and perceived climate change include stress, anxiety, apathy, and guilt." When we view climate change as a huge global issue and we are only one human, we can be overwhelmed by fear, anxiety, and despair. But acknowledging those feelings is the first step to dealing with them.
7. Political Instability And Conflict
The seventh and biggest way that climate change affects our health is something you might never have thought about before — through its impact on the political stability of failing states and nations. These past five years have shown in brutal clarity how a nation like Syria already teetering on the brink — due to decades of conflict, corruption, and mismanagement of its natural resources — can be pushed over the edge into disaster. Did climate change cause the Syrian refugee crisis? No. There were many factors at play. Did climate change contribute to it? Yes, it did. As one scientific study concludes, "Human-induced forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 two to three times more likely than by natural variability alone." Climate change increases the risk of conflict in the poor, unstable, and desperate regions of the world. Public health systems collapse, families will be driven into refugee camps, and attempts to flee to safer countries often end in unmitigated disaster and tragedy, with permanent and all too often even fatal impacts on millions of peoples' lives.
So, given all this, why should we care about a changing climate? Because it affects us, our families, our communities, and people everywhere: real people, particularly the poor, the vulnerable, and those who already lack the resources to cope.
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Climate change is making heat waves stronger and more frequent, air pollution worse, and allowing vector-borne diseases to expand their range. It's also compromising our drinking water, causing more extreme weather events, and impacting our mental health. And the costs will be great: just this June, the World Health Organization estimated that in the twenty years after 2030, climate change will cause "approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year, from malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea and heat stress."
1. Heatwaves
Thanks to climate change, we're already seeing stronger, longer, and more frequent heatwaves. People — particularly the very young and very old — don't cope well with in these conditions. In 2003, some 70,000 people died in the European heat wave, and last summer more than 2,000 perished in India and southwest Asia. But the problems from heat aren't just happening on the other side of the globe. Here in the U.S., people who spend a lot of time outdoors — farm workers, construction crews, even athletes — are feeling the effects of warmer days. The Texas Rangers want to build a new billion-dollar stadium with a retractable roof, an expensive feature that owner Ray Davis called "a must to counter the scorching heat in the summer." But most people don't have the resources to spend to adapt to new conditions like that, and so instead will just suffer in the heat.
2. Air Pollution
Air pollution, whether it's the heavy smog that shrouds Los Angeles or the fine dust that burns our lungs in China, isn't causing climate change. But climate change is making air pollution worse! And the stakes are high: air pollution already causes an estimated 7 million premature deaths across the globe each year. Air pollution is made up a variety of things, including ground-level ozone, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, and carbon monoxide, and when we breathe those in, we get sick. As the planet grows warmer due to climate change, the reactions that form ground-level ozone — one of the most dangerous things for us to inhale — happen faster. And climate change also affects our weather patterns. As the earth grows warmer, we're seeing more high-pressure systems. And a high-pressure system stuck over an area can trap local pollution and particulate matter, preventing it from being blown away, and so the area's residents will keep breathing it in.
3. Vector-Borne Diseases
What do zika, chikungunya, dengue, and malaria have in common? They're all vector-borne diseases spread by mosquitos. And insect ranges are often determined by climate. So if climate is changing, that means the geographic extent of many of these diseases will, too. In some cases, a disease could move into a new region where it's never been seen before, like we're seeing in Canada with Lyme disease, a devastating condition that used to be so unusual north of the border, it wasn't even on Health Canada's list of treatable diseases. In other instances, as it gets warmer a disease could move out of its current region — like our research has shown is likely to be the case for dengue in Texas in the summer. And in yet other cases, a disease could re-emerge in a place where it was eradicated a century ago — like malaria in Chicago.
4. Water-Borne Diseases
Climate change is also leading to more deaths from diarrhea, which is already the second leading cause of death for kids under five around the world. How is that, you may wonder? Well, a warmer atmosphere speeds up the hydrological cycle, leading to more periods of extreme precipitation. Heavier rainfall often means higher risk of flooding. And flooding — particularly in nations where drinking water is at risk of being contaminated with garbage, animal manure, and even human waste — can be deadly. "Runoff from more frequent and intense extreme precipitation events will increasingly compromise sources of drinking water through increased introduction of pathogens and prevalence of toxic algal blooms. As a result, the risk of human exposure to agents of water-related illness will increase," says the 2016 Climate and Health Assessment.
5. Extreme Weather Hazards
Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, heavy downpours, and flooding, all of which can affect our health and well-being, and we're seeing more of them as the climate changes. These events can harm or even kill us; they can prevent us from getting the medical care we need, turning a trivial concern into a life-threatening illness; and they can sweep away cars, homes, businesses, and harvests. "Earth has always experienced epic storms, debilitating drought, and biblical floods. But lately it seems the treadmill of disruptive weather has been set to fast-forward," writes Paul Douglas, a professional meteorologist and — like me — someone whose faith motivates his concern on this issue. Let's zero in one just one type of extreme event: a hurricane. There are all sorts of risks that crop up in the aftermath of a hurricane. If your power goes out and you have to run a generator in your house, you run the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning if you don't set the generator up correctly. Or let's say it's flooding and your car gets swept away and you run the risk of drowning. Thanks to climate change, we're seeing more hurricanes and so are more exposed to these risks.
6. Our Mental Health
Climate change, and the increasing risk of weather extremes that accompanies it, has a direct impact on our mental well-being. "Many people exposed to climate related or weather-related disasters experience stress and serious mental health consequences ... [including] post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and general anxiety," says the 2016 US Climate and Health Assessment. Last year, when I was working with the city of Boulder on climate preparedness, an emergency room doctor told me that extreme weather is one of the biggest challenges they face in counseling people with long-term mental health issues. If a patient misses one appointment due to snow, flooding, or other situations that prevent travel, there is a big chance they will fail to keep their next one, and the next, and their problems — some of which may have been on the road to recovery — will resurface in full force. That's not all, though. Sometimes just thinking about climate change can overload us. As the American Psychological Association says, "mental health impacts of actual and perceived climate change include stress, anxiety, apathy, and guilt." When we view climate change as a huge global issue and we are only one human, we can be overwhelmed by fear, anxiety, and despair. But acknowledging those feelings is the first step to dealing with them.
7. Political Instability And Conflict
The seventh and biggest way that climate change affects our health is something you might never have thought about before — through its impact on the political stability of failing states and nations. These past five years have shown in brutal clarity how a nation like Syria already teetering on the brink — due to decades of conflict, corruption, and mismanagement of its natural resources — can be pushed over the edge into disaster. Did climate change cause the Syrian refugee crisis? No. There were many factors at play. Did climate change contribute to it? Yes, it did. As one scientific study concludes, "Human-induced forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 two to three times more likely than by natural variability alone." Climate change increases the risk of conflict in the poor, unstable, and desperate regions of the world. Public health systems collapse, families will be driven into refugee camps, and attempts to flee to safer countries often end in unmitigated disaster and tragedy, with permanent and all too often even fatal impacts on millions of peoples' lives.
So, given all this, why should we care about a changing climate? Because it affects us, our families, our communities, and people everywhere: real people, particularly the poor, the vulnerable, and those who already lack the resources to cope.
Links
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