Climate change is encouraging animals to move higher, and in the Australian Alps this is not welcome news.
A red-necked wallaby. Image Credit: Benjamint/Wikimedia
TASMANIA IS missing a habitat, tall alpine herbfield, because of
intense grazing by wallabies. On the mainland wallabies are kept at
lower levels by heavy winter snow, and alpine herbfields are plentiful.
But since 2011, with less snow on the mainland, wallabies are moving
higher and this habitat is now at risk of being eaten. Red-necked wallabies
spell trouble for the vulnerable broad-toothed rat, which has an
overlapping diet of grass. The two mammals seldom co-exist, suggesting
that more wallabies in the Australian Alps will mean fewer broad-toothed
rats. The Alps, extending from northern Victoria into southern NSW, are
a stronghold for these rodents, which are missing from Tasmania’s
uplands, except for the few sites where wallabies are kept out by
boulders or prickly shrubs.
Because of Bennett’s wallabies, Tasmania has marsupial lawns instead of herbfields. (Image Credit: Bjørn Christian Tørrissen/Wikimedia)
Kookaburras are also reaching higher altitudes, where the endangered
Guthega skink fails to recognise them as predators. At special risk are
the pregnant lizards that bask for long stretches to hasten embryo
development. The Australian government lists kookaburras as one of the threats to this species.
Introduced foxes, cats, rabbits and feral horses are also moving
higher, to the detriment of wildlife. Yarrow, white clover and other
weeds are expected further upslope as snow declines. Snow gums aren’t
showing much sign of spread, but when they do, alpine herbfields and
shrublands will be shaded out.
In talk about climate change, the movement of native species upslope
and southwards is usually portrayed as desirable, as helpful to their
survival in a changing world. Yet Australia has vast numbers of uncommon
animals and plants living at high altitudes, at risk from common
species invading their domain, as well as from climate change. This
holds true right along the Great Dividing Range and in other mountainous
regions as well.
In Tasmania one concern is that upland conifers will die from
flammable shrubs that spread higher and promote fires. The common
species heading upslope are not thought to face a serious problem from
climate change, whether they move or not.
In any new discipline – such as climate change biology – the thinking
evolves as evidence grows. Some upslope movements aren’t troubling, but
even so, the default assumption that movement is good needs rethinking.
Ingrid Michaelson: Earth Is Not OK
Last night Samantha Bee had a climate change-focused episode of Full Frontal.
Bee reminds the audience that climate change is no longer a theoretical
thing of the future; it’s here, real and ruining Earth.
After
continuous horrific hurricanes, including Hurricane Maria, Bee wishes
that Mother Nature would let us know climate change has arrived in a
nicer way, such as “with [her] words and through the lips of the amazing
Ingrid Michaelson.”
Michaelson appeared, dressed as the globe, toting a ukulele and singing
a climate change-themed version of her 2008 Billboard Hot 100 hit “Be
OK."
Michaelson changes the song's chorus to sing, “I’m getting warmer
every day, every day, every day. Climate change is fucking me, oy vey!”
and features background dancers wearing cutouts of hurricanes, Puerto
Rico, and more nature-themed elements as Michaelson calls out Donald
Trump’s paper towel fiasco in the island and his excessive golf playing
during the crisis.
She reminds the audience that when you deny climate change, you lose all her best resources, even Bey: “All you need I gave away, gave away, gave away, food, and drink, and air, and Beyonce.”
Coal use will have to be "pretty much" gone by mid-century if the
planet is to avoid sea-level rise of more than a metre by 2100 as
Antarctic ice sheets disintegrate faster than expected, new modelling by
an Australian-led team has found.
On business-as-usual
projections, sea-level rise by the end of the century could exceed 1.3
metres compared with the 1986-2005 average, or 55 per cent more
than predicted in the Fifth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, according to research published in the Environmental Research Letters journal.
Warming waters are melting the Antarctic ice sheets from below. Photo: APT
"We have provided a preview of what is probably going to be said by the
IPCC in the [Sixth Assessment Report]," due for release in
2021, said Alexander Nauels, lead author of the report, and a researcher
at Melbourne University's Australian-German Climate & Energy
Centre.
"There are really high risks attached to these new findings from more Antarctic contributions," he said.
Recent research indicates Antarctica is more prone than previously thought to ice sheet melting, particularly for land-based ice exposed to warming oceans from beneath.
At the high end of the range for unmitigated emissions, mean sea-level
rise could approach two metres by the end of the century,
inundating low-lying coastal regions worldwide.
Melting Antarctic ice is likely to be the biggest contributor to
global sea-level increases that could exceed 10 metres in the centuries
ahead. Photo: APT
Regional variations caused by different ocean circulation patterns,
will see some areas, such as the tropics, endure faster rises than in
other parts of the globe.
The melting would not halt by 2100, of course, and could lift sea levels
by 10-15 metres by 2500,
according to research published by US scientists last year. "These are
very, very scary numbers," Mr Nauels said, adding his work was
generating similar findings.
However, by implementing the Paris climate target of limiting
warming to 1.5-2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, sea-level
increases could be limited to about half a metre – in addition to the
roughly 20 centimetre rise in the past century.
That goal would
need cumulative carbon emissions to be limited to 850 gigatonnes,
compared with about 554 gigatonnes so far – a tally that is rising about
10 gigatonnes a year.
"Coal as we know it today [without carbon capture and storage] will
have to be gone pretty much [by 2050]," Mr Nauels said. "There is no
future for fossil fuels, and coal in particular."
Australia's
trajectory of emissions may become clearer by the end of this year when
the Turnbull government is due to release results of its climate policy
review.
Earlier this month, the government launched its National
Energy Guarantee which projects emissions would only track the nation's
Paris pledge of cutting pollution 26-28 per cent from 2005 levels by
2030. The onus will be to cut emissions in other sectors, such as
transport and agriculture, which have few policies in place to curb
pollution.
The research paper also incorporated the so-called Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) that
the IPCC will use for its AR6 report to relate sea-level changes to
factors such as population and economic growth, and urbanisation.
These pathway, for instance, consider using a price on carbon emissions to nudge behaviour.
"If we have a carbon price of $US100 [per tonne of CO2-equivalent at
2005 terms] in 2050, according to the SSP scenarios, we could limit
sea-level rise to around 65cm by 2100," said Carl Friedrich Schleussner
from Climate Analytics, and another of the report's authors.
"This
is the first time that a study has combined latest sea-level rise
modelling with the new scenarios and we can see clear linkages between
specific mitigation efforts and sea-level rise impacts."
Managers’ short term incentives mean they can’t follow through on grand climate change programs.
Shutterstock
While businesses have been principal agents in increasing greenhouse gas emissions, they are also seenbymany as crucial to tackling climate change.
However, our research
shows how corporations’ ambitious pro-climate proposals are
systematically degraded by criticism from shareholders, media,
governments, other corporations and managers.
This “market critique” reveals the underlying tension between the
demands of tackling climate change, and the more basic business
imperatives of profit and shareholder value. Managers operate within
increasingly short time frames and demanding performance metrics, due to quarterly and semi-annual reporting, and the shrinking tenure of executives.
Our research involved detailed analysis of five major Australian
corporations over ten years, from 2005 to 2015. During this period,
climate change became a central issue in political and economic debate, giving rise to a range of risks and opportunities for business.
Each of the companies we studied acted at the leading edge of this
issue. However, despite operating in different industries (banking,
media, insurance, manufacturing and energy) we found a common pattern in
which initial statements of climate leadership degenerated over time
into more mundane business concerns.
Our study revealed three phases to this transformation.
1. Climate change as a business opportunity
In this first phase, senior executives present tackling climate change as a strategic business decision.
This is epitomised by British entrepreneur Richard Branson, who has claimed that “our only hope to stop climate change is for industry to make money from it”.
The managers in our study associated climate change with words like
“innovation”, “opportunity”, “leadership” and “win-win outcomes”. At the
same time they ruled out more negative or threatening associations,
such as “regulation” or “sacrifice”.
For example, in outlining why his company had embraced the climate
issue, the global sustainability manager of one of the world’s largest
industrial conglomerates told us:
We’re eliminating the false choice between great economics and the
environment. We’re looking for products that will have a positive and
powerful impact on the environment and on the economy.
2. Localising climate engagement
These statements of intent are open to criticism from customers,
employees, the media and competitors, especially with respect to the substance and relevance of corporate climate action.
Thus, in the second phase, managers sought to make their proposals more concrete through eco-efficiency practices
(such as reducing energy consumption, retrofitting lighting, and using
renewable energy), “green” products and services, and promoting the need
for climate action.
Notably, these are often supplemented with measures of corporate
worth to demonstrate a “business case” for climate action (for instance,
savings from reduced energy consumption, increased employee
satisfaction and engagement, or improved sales figures from green
products and services).
Importantly, companies also sought to communicate the benefits of these measures to employees through corporate culture change initiatives, as well as to customers, clients, NGOs and political parties.
As the environment manager at the global media company we studied
outlined, these practices were central to creating a climate-conscious
culture in his organization:
That inspires others and it gets things done. It’s a fantastic tool. It’s how behavioural change happens on sites.
3. Normalisation and business as usual
Over time, however, climate initiatives attracted renewed criticism from other business groups, shareholders, the media, and politicians.
For instance, the increasingly heated political debate over carbon pricing forced many companies to rethink their public stance on climate change.
As a senior manager at one of the country’s major banks explained:
How we deal with sensitivities within the organisation about taking
what can be seen as a partisan position in a highly political
environment … that’s the challenge at the moment.
And so, in the third phase we found that climate change initiatives were wound back and market concerns prioritised.
At this stage, the temporary compromise between market and
social/environmental discourses was broken and corporate executives
sought to realign climate initiatives with the goal of maximising
shareholder value.
For example, new chief executives were promoted who advocated “back
to basics” strategies. Meanwhile, climate change initiatives were
diluted and relegated to broader and less specific “sustainability” and
“resilience” programs.
One of our case study companies is a large insurance company. While
initially very progressive on the need for climate change action, this
changed after a reversal in its financial situation and a change of
leadership.
As a senior manager explained:
Look, that was all a nice thing to have in good times but now we’re in hard times. We get back to core stuff.
Where next from here?
These case studies, on top of our previous research, show why corporations are particularly unsuited to tackling a challenge like climate change.
Businesses operate on short-term objectives of profit maximisation
and shareholder return. But avoiding dangerous climate change requires
the radical decarbonisation of energy, transportation and manufacturing
on a scale that is historically unprecedented and probably incompatible with economic growth.
This means going beyond the comfortable assumptions of corporate
self-regulation and “market solutions”, and instead accepting regulatory
restrictions on carbon emissions and fossil fuel extraction.
It also requires a reconsideration of corporate purpose and the
dominance of short-term shareholder value as the pre-eminent criteria in
assessing business performance. Alternative models of corporate
governance, such as B corporations, offer pathways that better acknowledge environmental and social concerns.
In an era in which neoliberalism still dominates political
imaginations around the world, our research shows the folly of depending
on corporations and markets to address climate change.
More intense rainfalls have caused flooding throughout New Zealand, as seen here in Northland.
www.shutterstock.com, CC BY-ND
In August last year, a third of the residents of the North Island
township Havelock North fell acutely ill with gastroenteritis after
their water was contaminated with campylobacter.
Following a long dry spell, the heaviest daily rainfall in more than
ten years had washed the pathogenic organism from sheep faeces into the
aquifer that supplies the town’s drinking water. The Havelock North
supply, like many in rain-rich New Zealand, was not treated with
chlorine or other disinfectants, and this was the country’s largest ever reported outbreak of waterborne disease.
This is just one example of how climate change may affect our health, according to a report released by the Royal Society of New Zealand today.
Prerequisites for good health
It turns out that the Goldilocks rule - “not too hot, not too cold” -
applies to more than porridge. There have been many reports, such as
those published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Lancet Commission on Climate Change, that detail how aspects of human physical and mental are effected by a changing climate.
There is an optimum climate, related usually to what is most common
or familiar. Deviations, especially if substantial and rapid, are risky.
The RSNZ report is organised around eight prerequisites for good
health, including community, shelter, water and food - all of which are
threatened by climate change.
Building Blocks of Health Disrupted by Climate Change.Royal Society of New Zealand
The building block metaphor is apt. It is unlikely that climate
change will undermine health in new and unexpected ways. Instead we
expect it to act as a threat multiplier. Where there are weaknesses in
the foundations of public health, rapid changes in temperatures,
rainfall and sea levels will magnify damaging effects.
Direct and indirect effects
The impacts will include direct effects. More intense rainfall,
especially on the western side of the country, will test health
protection systems, as in the case of Havelock North.
But the impacts may also be indirect. The RSNZ report points out that
changes in the climate may disrupt ecosystems, with knock-on effects
for human health. As water temperatures rise, algal blooms occur more
frequently, and human pathogens such as the vibrio species are found in higher concentrations.
There may be more intense exposure to pollen and other allergens, a particular concern given the relatively high rates of asthma that apply in New Zealand.
A reliable supply of food is one of the most important ecosystem
services. The global food system is simultaneously more productive than
ever before, and also exquisitely vulnerable. We depend more and more on
a small number of crops, grown in mono cultures on larger scale and in
fewer locations, dependent on longer supply chains and frequently
requiring irrigation and heavy use of artificial fertilisers.
Climate change threatens the production and distribution of food in
many ways. For instance, the rice crop in southern China currently fails
due to high temperature stress once every century or longer, but this
will be a once-in-10-year event with 2–3°C global warming, and once every four years if average temperatures rise by 5–6°C.
Effects on mental health
Climate change also acts through social stressors. Rising sea levels,
combined with heavy rainfall, threaten many settlements around the New
Zealand coast and elsewhere. The community of South Dunedin is one of the most vulnerable.
On a broader scale, internationally, it is projected climate change
will displace very large numbers of people. The recent flood of refugees
to Europe (sparked, in part, by climate extremes) illustrates the detrimental effects to security, community cohesion and health that may result.
The RSNZ report acknowledges that it is not just physical health that
is important. Depression, anxiety, grief and other manifestations of
loss and conflict may occur when familiar environments are damaged and
social connections threatened. This is most evident following disasters
such as droughts and floods.
The report refers to the particular threat climate change poses to
Māori. Not only are Māori over-represented amongst those with low
incomes, and at greater risk therefore of poor health from hazardous
environments. Māori culture also embodies a strongly developed sense of
relationship with place that carries with it responsibility and
obligations. Climate change challenges this guardianship role.
Transition risks and opportunities
There is another dimension to health impacts that is not discussed in
the RSNZ report. I refer to the damage that may be caused by the way we
respond to climate change. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of
England, calls them “transition risks”. These are not trivial concerns, Carney says, because managing climate change successfully will require radical change, and the implications may be far reaching.
Expanded use of biofuels might compete with food crops, for instance.
Carbon- pricing regimes may also aggravate food insecurity in the
poorest populations. In low-income countries, reducing numbers of
livestock to control methane emissions might be detrimental unless there
are alternative sources of protein, energy and nutrients.
However, there are opportunities, too. The co-benefits agenda gets
only a brief mention in the RSNZ report, which is a pity, since win-win
interventions may provide a politically palatable route to substantial
cuts in greenhouse emissions. For example well designed, comprehensive taxes on food could avoid a billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions and also prevent half a million premature deaths each year.
This is particularly relevant to New Zealand and Australia as most of
the gains would be made by cutting the consumption of red meat in rich
countries.
The Royal Society report concludes that more research is needed to
better quantify the health impacts of climate change. This is true, of
course. But we know enough already about risks to pay close attention to
potential solutions. The big question, in my view, is how we take
carbon out of the New Zealand economy, rapidly, and in an equitable
fashion, without disrupting the building blocks of health.
Maybe we can do better than avoiding harm. Transport, agriculture,
urban form, food systems - in these areas, and others, there are
substantial opportunities as well as serious risks. Links
While almost all companies have plans in place to reduce carbon
emissions, those plans don’t go far enough, according to the Carbon
Disclosure Project
EDF opens photovoltaic park near ArcelorMittal steel plant Fos-sur-mer. Many big companies are switching to renewable energy.
Photograph: Guillaume Horcajuelo/EPA
Nearly nine out of 10 of the world’s biggest companies have plans in place to reduce carbon emissions, new research has found, but only a fifth of them are doing so for 2030 and beyond.
The Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) also found that only 14% of its
sample of 1,073 large companies around the world had “science-based
targets” – that is, goals to reduce carbon emissions which are in line
with the global agreement to hold warming to no more than 2C, enshrined
in the 2015 Paris agreement.
“Targets [from companies] have previously been short in scope and
pretty unambitious,” Marcus Norton, chief partnerships officer at CDP,
told the Guardian. “That is improving.”
Companies are not bound by the Paris agreement, which requires
country governments to take action to hold warming to no more than 2C,
with an aspirational goal of keeping warming to even lower levels, of
1.5C. However, many large companies have taken their own steps to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions, including investing in renewable energy, cutting down on waste and streamlining their operations.
Paul Simpson, chief executive of CDP, added: “This is great news for
those companies seizing the opportunity of the low-carbon economy, but
the rest need to pick up the pace or risk losing out. The majority of
the large corporations we analysed do not yet appear to have the right
science-based targets in place to successfully transition their business
in line with the Paris agreement, though many have ambitions to take
this step in the next two years.”
These efforts will continue despite the withdrawal of the US,
the world’s biggest emitter, from the Paris agreement under President
Trump. Governments will meet in Bonn this November under the auspices of
the UN, a meeting known as COP23, to discuss the next steps to
achieving the aims of the Paris agreement, and the attitude of the US
government’s representatives will be keenly watched. Ahead of COP23,
many companies and governments below the national level were keen to
stress their commitment to fulfilling the aims of the Paris pact.
For
instance, mayors of the cities of London, Paris, Los Angeles,
Barcelona, Mexico City and Cape Town, along with a few others, announced
they would stop buying petrol or diesel-driven buses from 2025 onwards,
and that they would ensure that a large area of their city was
“zero-emission” by 2030.
These actions are calculated to reduce air pollution, a serious
problem in many major cities, as well as cutting down on global
greenhouse gases.
Ahead of the Bonn conference, developing countries have also been a
key focus. A group called the New Climate Economy has surveyed Africa
and found that nations across the continent could benefit from
environmentally sustainable economic growth, potentially “leapfrogging”
developed countries by bypassing much of the fossil fuel economy in
favour of clean technology, including renewable energy.
The report found that the best way to encourage such sustainable economic activity
in Africa would be for governments to devise and implement new policies
that would make investments in green growth more attractive, for
instance by reducing existing subsidies for fossil fuels and removing
import tariffs on sustainable technology.
Governments should also encourage entrepreneurship, the report found,
by adapting policies to the conditions in their countries and of their
economies, taking into account the available natural resources and the
need to keep emissions low while lifting people out of poverty.
“Africa
has the natural resources and the determination to instigate a green
industrial revolution,” said Carlos Lopes, a member of the Global
Commission on the Economy and Climate, professor at the Graduate School
of Development Policy and Practice, University of Cape Town. “Now we
need the right policies to unleash economic transformation, green growth
and entrepreneurship across the continent. A more prosperous and
sustainable future is within Africa’s reach, we just need to seize it.”
Our changing climate is expected to see some plants release eight-times more pollen by 2100, worsening hayfever symptoms. STUFF
Allergies will become more prevalent and their symptoms worse,
drinking water will be less reliable, and poisonous pests may find a new
home in New Zealand's warmer climate.
These are just a few of the
effects climate change is expected to have on human health, according
to a newly-released Royal Society report.
Kiwis
may have to contend with more intense heat waves and extreme weather
events, including flooding and fires, which would take a toll on mental
health.
The invasive Australian redback spider has already appeared
in Otago. But as our country gets warmer, it may spread to other places. Supplied
The Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners said the
stresses on children would compare to those growing up under the threat
of nuclear war.
STUFF
Royal Society president Richard Bedford said higher concentrations of
CO2, increased temperatures and changes in rainfall were expected to
extend growing seasons.
This would boost pollen counts and worsen
hayfever symptoms. Some plants were expected to release eight-times more
pollen by 2100, compared to in 2000.
Increases in other air particulates were also likely to increase asthma rates.
Increases in certain air particulates as a result of climate change are likely to increase asthma rates. 123RF
Kiwis could also find themselves in the presence of some unwanted new arrivals from Australia and the Pacific Islands.
Harmful species, such as sea snakes and toxic jellyfish, may find new
homes in New Zealand's warmer oceans. Drier inland areas may also
become suitable for poisonous species, such as the invasive Australian
redback spider.
Bedford predicted social disruption and the
breakdown of communities, as people would be forced to relocate, either
due to flooding and sea level rise, or because changed weather patterns
made livelihoods unsustainable.
STUFF
"If we think of the basic building blocks of health, such as our
shelter, the air we breathe, water we drink and the food we eat, all
will be affected by climate change."
Auckland University
epidemiologist Alistair Woodward, a key author of the report, said the
gastroenteritis contamination of Havelock North's drinking water in
August last year was a wake up call.
The outbreak left roughly 5500 of the town's 14,000 residents ill and has been linked to three deaths.
The stress on children of living with regular extreme weather events has
been compared to growing up under the threat of nuclear war. ALDEN WILLIAMS/STUFF
"It was a long dry spell and then the heaviest daily rainfall in more
than 10 years. It really tested the limits of the health protection
system," Woodward said.
"Christchurch got a whole heap of one-in-100-year floods at the start of the year, so that's going to become the pattern."
But
the greatest impact on human health is likely to be increased droughts,
with the eastern side of the country receiving less rainfall and the
west receiving more.
Royal Society President professor Richard Bedford says decision makers
need more information on the health risks associated with climate
change. Supplied
"The increase in drought frequency is going to put a lot of pressure on our rural economy," Woodward said.
"We
know that there is a relationship between the rural economy, the
welfare of the people working in the rural economy, and the frequency of
mental health problems."
The report also predicts climate change will exacerbate existing socioeconomic and ethnic health inequalities.
Professor Alistair Woodward, epidemiologist at the University of
Auckland, says Havelock North's gastro outbreak was a wake-up call.Supplied
"You can think of it a bit as a threat-multiplier. Climate change is
going to make life harder for people who are already suffering."
Children, the elderly, people with disabilities and chronic disease, and low-income groups were particularly vulnerable.
Worldwide diseases such as chikungunya and Zika virus would also likely make the jump from surrounding Pacific Islands.
Brookvale Road bore No.1, near Havelock North was one of the
bores at the centre of an investigation into how the town's water supply
became contaminated. MARTY SHARPE/STUFF
A spokeswoman for the Ministry of Health said district health boards
were funded to detect exotic mosquitoes and ensure they did not become
established.
DHBs were expected to include extreme weather event
risks in their emergency plans, and a review had been commissioned of
drinking water safety plans.
Incoming Minister for Climate Change
Issues James Shaw said the report showed why climate change required an
all-of-government response.
"Preparing for climate change and
cutting climate pollution will require action in the health,
agriculture, transport, energy and environment portfolios," he said.
"We
plan to pass a Zero Carbon Act that will require the Government to
create a plan every five years for addressing climate-related risks to
New Zealanders. This will take into account risks to health as well as
other areas."
