26/04/2020

The Pandemic Could Be A Call To Action On Climate Change

Washington Post - Ishaan Tharoor

This combination photo shows Murcia, Spain, days before the national coronavirus lockdown on Feb. 29, left, and again weeks into the lockdown on April 23. (Maarcial Guillen/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

Amid its horrors and tragedies, the coronavirus pandemic has driven home a startling reality.

Travel bans and lockdowns have cleaned the globe, flushing the murk from Venice’s canals, clearing Delhi’s polluted smog, making distant snowy peaks visible for the first time in years from the shores of the Bosporus.

With humans in retreat, nature reclaimed what was once its own in whimsical ways: Goats strutted through villages, antlered deer grazed on manicured city lawns and mountain lions found perches by suburban fences.

U.S. scientists still predict 2020 will be the hottest year on record, even as experts forecast the largest annual drop in carbon emissions in modern history — a direct consequence of the pandemic’s freeze on human activity, trade and travel. The crisis isn’t uniformly good news for the planet: For example, satellite data shows that deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon is at its fastest pace in years, with environmental officials otherwise sidelined or preoccupied by the outbreak.

The pandemic is not just a reminder of the human impact on the environment, including the significance of man-made emissions on global warming and air pollution. It’s also similar: an imperceptible menace that knows no borders, overwhelms aging infrastructure and bedevils policymakers and politicians who struggle to grapple with the scale of the threat.

“A good way to think about the coronavirus pandemic is that it is like climate change at warp speed. What takes decades and centuries for the climate takes days or weeks for a contagious disease,” New York University climate economist Gernot Wagner wrote last month. “That speed focuses the mind and offers lessons in how to think about risk in an interconnected world.”
The question now is who’s learning what lessons.

 The commemorations for the 50th annual Earth Day saw a litany of prominent climate campaigners link action on that front to the experience of the outbreak.

For years, climate scientists have been calling on governments to “flatten the curve” — that is, reduce emissions to lessen the likely catastrophic toll global warming will exact on societies in decades to come.

In the Boston Globe, former U.S. secretary of state John F. Kerry pointed to evidence suggesting climate change could be a “threat multiplier” for zoonotic and pandemic diseases. He also took aim at President Trump and other politicians who cling to positions outside the scientific consensus and impede collective action.

“Just as in today’s pandemic, progress has been halted by finger-pointing, denial, replacing real science with junk science, misinformation, and flat-out lies, elevating political hacks instead of scientists and experts, refusal to work with allies and even adversaries, and leaving states and cities to fend for themselves,” wrote Kerry.

“The coronavirus pandemic has delivered sharp and painful reminders of our collective vulnerability and the value of paying very close attention to reality,” wrote physicist Mark Buchanan. “If there’s any good to come out of the current tragedy, it may be in helping to persuade a few people to help tip the scales and get our leaders to take the next looming issue much more seriously.”

The Trump administration isn’t quite set on tipping the scales.

Stimulus money the White House has been empowered to spend in the pandemic’s aftermath may go to U.S. fossil fuel companies that were already in financial trouble before the crisis.

On Earth Day, Andrew Wheeler, Trump’s administrator for the Environmental Protection Agency, sought to shift focus away from climate change to government efforts to curb pollution.

“We’re taking climate change seriously,” Wheeler told The Washington Post’s PowerUp newsletter. “But it’s not the only environmental issue that we face as a planet.”

But away from the White House, others are seeking to take the lead. Under the aegis of the World Economic Forum, major financial firms — including some that may help manage elements of the federal response to the pandemic — have pledged to divest from fossil fuels. Campaigners are calling for government stimulus to fund sustainable development projects that could build the green economy. The World Bank is proposing linking governments’ post-pandemic spending to greener infrastructure projects and future disaster-proofing.
In Washington, there’s a cautious hope that the urgency presented both by climate change and the pandemic may cool the geopolitical tensions between the United States and China and force greater global collaboration.

“We all breathe the same air and we’re all going to live with the same rising seas,” Michael Chertoff, a former head of the Department of Homeland Security in the George W. Bush administration, told Today’s WorldView during a webinar this week. “And whatever we may disagree about some things, we’re going to need to sit down with them and our like-minded allies and everybody else and figure out what can we do collectively to protect the global commons against either pandemic diseases or disastrous climate change.”

But, as Slate’s Joshua Keating noted, the opposite may well be true, given the growing hostility between both countries. He added that some right-wing parties elsewhere in the West have already seized on the threat of climate change not as a call for collective action, but as a justification for limiting migration and unraveling globalization.

“It’s not hard to imagine a future U.S. administration, rather than denying the increasingly obvious reality of climate change, using it to argue that the country needs tougher immigration controls and fewer refugees,” wrote Keating. “The alternative, they will argue, is to be overwhelmed by the human invaders and see our own natural resources depleted in the way other countries already have.”

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25/04/2020

(AU) Two Thirds Of Citizens Around The World Agree Climate Change Is As Serious A Crisis As Covid-19 – Ipsos Survey

IpsosClimate Change

Most Australians support a green economic recovery from COVID-19.
Citizens want economic recovery actions to prioritise climate change.



A new Ipsos poll conducted in 14 countries shows widespread support for government actions to prioritise climate change in the economic recovery after COVID-19 with 65% globally agreeing that this is important.

For Australia, 57% agreed climate change should be prioritised in the economic recovery actions.

Furthermore, the survey finds that 71% of adults globally agree that, in the long term, climate change is as serious a crisis as COVID-19. While the majority of Australians (59%) agree climate change is as serious a crisis as COVID-19, this is well below the global average.

The survey was conducted online among more than 28,000 adults between April 16th and April 19th 2020.

A second Ipsos survey commissioned for Earth Day found that while climate change remains the most important environmental issue for citizens globally, they are no more likely to say they plan to make changes to their own environmental behaviours than they were six years ago.

The second survey was carried out online among more than 20,000 adults across 29 countries between Friday, February 21st and March 6th 2020.

Key Australian findings include:
 
  • Climate change remains the most important environmental issue to Australians. Two-in-five (42%) cited it as one of the three most important environmental issues facing the nation. This was consistent with the global trend; climate change is the number one environmental issue globally too (37% identified it as a top issue).
     
  • Also of concern to Australians are dealing with the amount of waste we generate (37%); future energy sources and supplies (29%); wildlife conservation (25%); and overpopulation (24%).
     
  • Globally, other environmental issues that are important to citizens are air pollution (33%) and dealing with the amount of waste we generate (32%), followed by deforestation (26%) and water pollution (25%). Concern for the top four issues has increased since two years ago.
     
  • A majority of the public globally (68%) agrees that if their governments do not act now to combat climate change, they will be failing their citizens. Australians feel similarly, 65% agreed Government inaction on climate change would be failing citizens.
     
  • More than half of Australians (55%) say they would be put off from voting for a political party whose policies do not take climate change seriously.
     
Comparison of this year’s findings highlight changing environmental priorities for Australians. In 2018, future energy sources and supplies was a top-three environmental concern for Australians (40% identified it as a top environmental issue, compared with 29% this year).

Climate change was the third most commonly mentioned issue for Australians in 2018 at 35%; and is the number one environmental issue this year, up by 7 points to 42%.

Of all the countries’ citizens surveyed in 2020, Australians placed the greatest concern on wildlife conservation. A quarter (25%) of Australians identify it as a top-three issue compared with an average of 15% globally.

It is likely this concern has been shaped by the loss of Australian wildlife during the bushfire crisis over summer. However, concern was also relatively high in 2018 compared with the rest of the world. In 2018, 22% of Australians selected this issue (14% globally).

Across a range of environmental behaviours, as many as two fifths globally feel they are already contributing as much as they possibly can by undertaking specific behaviours.

Australians feel they are already doing much to limit their impact on climate change including recycling (54% report they are already doing as much as they possibly can); saving energy at home (e.g. through insulation, 43% already doing as much as they possibly can); and saving water at home (40% already doing as much as they possibly can).

Australians are divided on whether the environment should have to endure some setbacks in order to help the economy to recover from the economic impacts of COVID-19.

Half (50%) agree that the Government should focus on helping the economy to recover first and foremost, even if that means taking some actions that are bad for the environment. Two-in-five (41%) disagree.

Ipsos Australia Public Affairs Director, Jennifer Brook, said: “It’s not surprising Australians feel conflicted about the potential of environmental sacrifices for economic recovery.

"In another of our monthly Ipsos Issues Monitor surveys, we have seen the environment get pushed out as the number one issue facing the nation at the start of 2020 to be replaced by healthcare, the economy and unemployment.

“These three issues have all experienced a dramatic surge in concern during the coronavirus pandemic. At the beginning of the year, it was the bushfire crisis that put the environment at the top of the list, but clearly COVID-19 is driving concern about these other issues at the moment.

“Despite the environment taking a back seat compared with other current issues, it’s still important to people. There is strong support among the public for a green economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis.

"The importance of staying at home as much as possible is having major impacts on our consumption and travel patterns at present. What remains to be seen is how sticky these behaviour changes are as the economy opens up again in post-pandemic life.”

Technical notes
 
  • The findings come from two surveys conducted by Ipsos on the Global Advisor online platform.
     
  • One is a 14-country survey conducted April 16-19, 2020 among 28,029 adults aged 18-74 in Canada and the United States and 16-74 in Australia, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia and Spain. The sample consisted of approximately 2,000+ individuals in each of the 14 countries.
     
  • The other is a 29-country survey conducted February 21 - March 6, 2020 among 20,590 adults aged 18-74 in the United States, Canada, Malaysia, New Zealand, South Africa, and Turkey and aged 16-74 in 23 other markets.
    The sample for this survey included approximately 1000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Great Britain, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Spain, Sweden, and the U.S.; and approximately 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Chile, Colombia, Hungary, India, Malaysia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Peru, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey.
     
  • The precision of Ipsos online polls are calculated using a credibility interval with a poll of 1,000 accurate to +/- 3.1 percentage points and of 500 accurate to +/- 4.5 percentage points. For more information on the Ipsos use of credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website.
     
  • 17 of the 29 countries surveyed online generate nationally representative samples in their countries (Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden and United States).
    Brazil, China, Chile, Colombia, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey produce a national sample that is more urban & educated, and with higher incomes than their fellow citizens. 
    We refer to these respondents as “Upper Deck Consumer Citizens”.  They are not nationally representative of their country.
     
  • Weighting was employed in both surveys to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent country Census data, and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe.
     
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Devastating Simulations Say Sea Ice Will Be Completely Gone In Arctic Summers By 2050

ScienceAlert - Peter Dockrill

Arctic ice changes from 1984 to 2016. Cindy Starr/NASA SVS

For millions of years, the Arctic has observed an unbroken ritual. In winter, Arctic sea ice expands, as sub-zero polar temperatures freeze waters in their place. In summer, the ice pack retreats, as warmer temperatures thaw the winter-made gains, surrendering them back to the ocean.

In the era of anthropogenic climate change, the ebb and flow of this timeless cycle has become disturbed. For decades, the overall coverage of Arctic sea ice has been in decline, expanding less and retreating more with each year. Nonetheless, the Arctic has, as always, remained frozen, covered in sea ice, even in the summer. It may not for much longer.

A new analysis of numerous climate models predicts the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free in the summer in only decades, and even before the mid-point of this century – a startling forecast that persists even in the best case scenarios, in which we manage to significantly cut down atmospheric CO2 emissions.

"If we reduce global emissions rapidly and substantially, and thus keep global warming below 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, Arctic sea ice will nevertheless likely disappear occasionally in summer even before 2050," says polar geophysicist Dirk Notz from the University of Hamburg in Germany.

"This really surprised us."

Sea ice area at the end of the Arctic summer in 1979, at left, versus 2019. Dirk Notz

In the new study, Notz and his team examined dozens of different climate models simulating the evolution of Arctic sea ice in the future.

The models – which come from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) – comprise some of the latest generation of global climate models, and encompass a number different hypothetical scenarios, including trajectories based on rapid reduction of future CO2 emissions, as well as largely unchanged, 'business as usual' situations.

In most of the CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (defined to mean sea‐ice area covering an area of less than 1 million square kilometres) in summers before we reach the year 2050, and regardless of the hypothetical scenario employed.

"The CMIP6 models simulate a large spread for when Arctic sea-ice area is predicted to drop below 1 million km2, such that the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea-ice free," the authors write in their paper.

"However, the clear majority of all models, and of those models that best capture the observed evolution, project that the Arctic will become practically sea-ice free in September before the year 2050 at future anthropogenic CO2 emissions of less than 1,000 [gigatonnes of] CO2 above that of 2019 in all scenarios."

Dirk Notz

While the results are certainly shocking, the overall prediction of a soon-to-be ice-free Arctic is not. Scientists have been forecasting this outcome for years, envisaging the end of the Arctic as we know it, and speculating what this could mean for all kinds of other ecosystems.

It's also something that will amplify the global warming effects the world is currently experiencing, scientists say, as with less ice in the Arctic, less sunlight can be reflected in the region, meaning our hotter planet absorbs even more heat as the North Pole increasingly melts away.

"It's a two-way street," NASA climate scientist Claire Parkinson, who wasn't involved with the current study, explained in 2018.

"The warming means less ice is going to form and more ice is going to melt, but also, because there's less ice, less of the Sun's incident solar radiation is reflected off, and this contributes to the warming."
If there's any good news here, it's that we may still be able to lessen the frequency of these ice-free Arctic summers, if we can manage to steeply reduce our CO2 emissions.

Models and simulations can predict many things, but the only trajectory that really matters is the path we collectively decide to take.

The findings are reported in Geophysical Research Letters.

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New Michael Moore-Backed Documentary On YouTube Reveals Massive Ecological Impacts Of Renewables

ForbesMichael Shellenberger

Michael Moore produced "Planet of the Humans" about the eco-impacts of renewables. Getty Editorial and Jeff Gibbs, Planet of the Humans




Over the last 10 years, everyone from celebrity influencers including Elon Musk, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Al Gore, to major technology brands including Apple, have repeatedly claimed that renewables like solar panels and wind farms are less polluting than fossil fuels.

But a new documentary, “Planet of the Humans,” being released free to the public on YouTube today, the 50th Anniversary of Earth Day, reveals that industrial wind farms, solar farms, biomass, and biofuels are wrecking natural environments.



“Planet of the Humans was produced by Oscar-winning filmmaker Michael Moore. “I assumed solar panels would last forever,” Moore told Reuters. “I didn’t know what went into the making of them.”

The film shows both abandoned industrial wind and solar farms and new ones being built — but after cutting down forests. “It suddenly dawned on me what we were looking at was a solar dead zone,” says filmmaker Jeff Gibbs, staring at a former solar farm in California. “I learned that the solar panels don’t last.”

Like many environmental documentaries, “Planet of Humans” endorses debunked Malthusian ideas that the world is running out of energy. “We have to have our ability to consume reigned in,” says a well-coiffed environmental leader. “Without some major die-off of the human population there is no turning back,” says a scientist.

In truth, humankind has never been at risk of running out of energy. There has always been enough fossil fuels to power human civilization for hundreds and perhaps thousands of years, and nuclear energy is effectively infinite.

But the apocalyptic rhetoric detracts little from the heart of the documentary, which exposes the complicity of climate activists in promoting pollution-intensive biomass and natural gas.

The film unearths a great deal of information I had never seen before. It shows Apple’s head of sustainability, former EPA head Lisa Jackson, claiming on-stage at an Apple event, “We now run Apple on 100% renewable energy,” to loud applause.

But Gibbs interviews a scientist who researched corporate renewables programs who said, “I haven’t found a single entity anywhere in the world running on 100% solar and wind alone.” The film shows a forest being cut down to build an Apple solar farm.

After Earth Day Founder Denis Hayes claims at a 2015 Earth Day concert that the event was being powered by solar, Gibbs goes behind the stage to find out the truth. “The concert is run by a diesel generation system,” the solar vendor said. “That right there could run a toaster,” said another vendor.

The film also debunks the claim made by Elon Musk that his “Gigafactory” to make batteries is powered by renewables. In fact, it is hooked up to the electric grid.

“Some solar panels are built to only last 10 years,” said a man selling materials for solar manufacturing at a corporate expo. “It’s not like you get this magic free energy. I don’t know that it’s the solution and here I am selling the materials that go in photovoltaics.”

“What powers a learning community?” said MicKibben at the unveiling of a wood-burning power plant at Middlebury College in Vermont. “As of this afternoon, the easy answer to this is wood chips. It’s incredibly beautiful to look at the bunker of wood chips. Anything that burns we can throw in there! This shows that this could happen everywhere, should happen everywhere, and must happen everywhere!”

The film reveals that McKibben and Sierra Club supported a Michigan ballot initiative that would have required the state get 25% of its electricity from renewables by 2025, and that the initiative was backed by biomass industrial interests, and that efforts to build a biomass plant at Michigan State University were hotly opposed by climate activists — including ones from 350.org.

In reality, scientists have for over a decade raised the alarm about biomass and biofuels causing rainforest destruction around the world including Brazil and Malaysia, and have documented that, when one takes into account their landscape impacts, the fuels produce significantly higher carbon emissions than oil and gas and may produce more than coal.

In 2016, McKibben wrote an article for Grist.org where he argued against burning biomass to produce electricity.

The film shows Silicon Valley venture capitalist Vinod Khosla telling Leslie Stahl of “60 Minutes” that his biofuels plant made “Clean green gasoline.” After Stahl asked what the downside was, Khosla said, “There is no downside.”

One year later, Khosla’s company filed for bankruptcy and defaulted on a $75 million loan it received from the state of Mississippi. It produced biofuels for $5 to $10 a gallon — “even without counting the cost of building the plant,” noted Washington Post’s Steve Mufson in 2014. Two earlier Khosla biofuel ventures had already gone bankrupt after receiving hundreds of millions of federal government subsidies. Shareholders sued Khosla’s company for fraud.

“Planet of the Humans” notes that Al Gore personally accepted fossil fuel money in 2013 when he and a co-owner sold Current TV to Al Jazeera, which is state-funded by Qatar, the gas-exporting nation whose citizens have the largest per capita carbon footprint in the world.

One year earlier, Gore had said the goal of “reducing our dependence on expensive dirty oil” was “to save the future of civilization.”

The film shows Jon Stewart, the host of Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show,” asking Gore, “You couldn’t find, for your business, a more sustainable choice?”

“What is not sustainable about it?” responded Gore.

“Because it is backed by fossil fuel money?” said Stewart.

As part of the agreement, Gore reportedly received $100 million. Climate activists weren’t bothered by it. “I don’t think the community is too upset,” a politically active environmentalist told The Washington Post about Gore’s deal with Qatar. “My personal sense is he got a good deal.”

Gore’s business partner, David Blood, “turns forests into profits,” notes Gibbs.

The main problem with biofuels—the land required—stems from their low power density. If the United States were to replace all of its gasoline with corn ethanol, it would need an area 50 percent larger than all of the current U.S. cropland.

Even the most efficient biofuels, like those made from soybeans, require 450 to 750 times more land than petroleum. The best performing biofuel, sugarcane ethanol, widely used in Brazil, requires 400 times more land to produce the same amount of energy as petroleum.

Publicly, Kennedy, McKibben, and Brune promoted solar panels as an alternative to fossil fuels. “There were days where Germany was generating 80 percent of its power from solar,” said Mckibben. In reality, wind and solar provided just 34 percent of German electricity in 2019, and Germany relies upon burning natural gas, coal, and biogas from corn.

“In the Green Century Fund, recommended by 350.org,” reports Gibbs, “I found less than one percent solar and wind and 99% things like mining, oil and gas infrastructure, a tar sands exploiter, McDonald’s, Archer Daniels... Coca-Cola… and lots of banks, including Black Rock, the largest financer of deforestation on earth.”

“The plants that we are building, the wind plants and solar plants, are gas plants,” Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told oil and gas investors. About another project, Ivanpah, he said, “It’s a turbine that we just take from a gas plant and suspend it from a big scaffolding, a tower and surround it with giant mirrors in the desert.”

Building the Ivanpah solar farm resulted in the deaths of hundreds of old desert tortoises. “Deserts are not dead,” said the filmmaker. “They are in fact full of ancient life.”

The film points to the massive materials requirements of renewables.

Solar panels require sixteen times more materials in the form of cement, glass, concrete, and steel than do nuclear plants, and create three hundred times more waste. “You would have been better off just burning fossil fuels in the first place,” said one expert, “instead of just playing pretend. We’re basically just being fed a lie.”

The man noted that Koch Industries provide many of the materials used to build solar panels and industrial solar farms. “The funny part is that when you criticize solar plants like this you are accused of working for the Koch brothers,” he laughs. “That’s the idiocy. This relies on the most toxic industrial processes we’ve ever created.”

What drives people who believe they want to save the environment into destroying it? The filmmaker hints that the desire for “sustainability” is really a desire for a kind of immortality. “What differentiates people is that we know we’ll die someday,” says a sociologist. “We enveloped ourselves in belief systems and worldviews.”

“People on the left and the right who think we’re going to be able to solar panel ourselves into the future,” he says, “I think that’s delusional.”

The good news, the man says, is that “once you come to terms with death, anything is possible.”

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24/04/2020

The Age Of Stability Is Over, And Coronavirus Is Just The Beginning

The Conversation

Troutnut / shutterstock

Author
  • Wolfgang Knorr
    Senior Research Scientist, Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University
Humanity has only recently become accustomed to a stable climate. For most of its history, long ice ages punctuated with hot spells alternated with short warm periods. Transitions from cold to warm climates were especially chaotic.

Then, about 10,000 years ago, the Earth suddenly entered into a period of climate stability modern humans had never seen before. But thanks to ever accelerating emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, humanity is now bringing this period to an end.

This loss of stability could be disastrous. If the coronavirus pandemic can teach us anything about the climate crisis it is this: our modern interconnected global economy is much more vulnerable than we thought, and we must urgently become more resilient and better prepared for the unknown.

After all, a stable climate underpins much of modern civilisation. About half of humanity depends on stable monsoon rains for food production. Many agricultural plants need certain temperature variations within a year to produce a stable crop, and heat stress can damage them greatly. We rely on intact glaciers or healthy forest soils to store water for the dry season. Heavy rains and storms can wipe out the infrastructure of whole regions.

These are the sorts of climate impacts that we know about, and have been extensively studied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But the biggest risk may yet come from climate-related chaos that we did not expect.

Impossible heatwaves – in consecutive years

In 2018, a prolonged heat wave and drought hit much of western and northern Europe and decimated much of the potato harvest in the region. Temperatures in my native Germany reached record highs in a summer that was drier and hotter than in many parts of the Mediterranean. Climate models had predicted Europe’s most extreme heat increases would occur in Greece, Turkey and Ukraine, so the odds of such a heatwave seemed impossibly low.

The Rhine dries up: Germany, July 2019. Friedemann Vogel / EPA

Only one year on, in 2019, western Europe was struck by another “impossible” heat wave. In Germany, with temperatures topping 40°C, the record of the previous year was broken twice. Even in the Netherlands, known for its cool sea breeze even at peak summer, peak temperatures exceeded a searing 39°C.

Huge wildfires arrived decades early

A large part of Australia’s forests are concentrated in the south-east of the country. This valuable ecosystem evolved with fire and thus is supposed to burn frequently. In these natural fires, typically 1-2% of the area is consumed by flames.

Massive bushfires arrived decades before the models predicted. Mick Tsikas / EPA

Wildfire and climate models – including one I worked on myself – did predict a large increase in bushfire activity in the forests of south-east Australia. But they predicted this would happen towards the end of this century. The models certainly did not foresee that megafires wiping out as much as 20% of these forests would strike as early as 2020.

Locusts are a climate crisis

In the long term, the IPCC predicts crop yields will decrease by around 10% or more, but to date it has ignored the possibility of large-scale pest outbreaks, which can wipe out entire harvests.

At the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020, the Arabian peninsula experienced much wetter weather than normal, likely owed to ocean warming. This created conditions that enabled numbers of desert locusts to explode.

Fighting the locusts in Somaliland, March 2020. Daniel Irungu / EPA

This unusual event was followed by another, a storm that shifted most of this locust army, now several hundred billion strong, to East Africa. In Kenya, it became the worst such outbreak for more than 70 years. With the rainy season just arrived and seeds sown for the next cropping season, it is now feared that continued breeding of the locusts will create a second wave that will be far worse than the first one.

Climate scientists tend to focus on slow changes with their climate predictions. But how much the weather becomes more chaotic is notoriously difficult to predict with climate models. We also have only a very superficial understanding of how vulnerable our modern society is to climate chaos and unexpected climate-related events.

Instead of seeing the climate problem as one felt by the next generations, we need to start focusing on what could happen tomorrow, or next year. To do that, we must better understand, appreciate and acknowledge the vulnerability of modern society – and address this vulnerability at its core.

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There’s Less Than A Decade Left Before Climate Change Becomes Irreversible—Here’s What Activists Say We Can Do About It

Hello GigglesMorgan Noll

Scott Heins, Getty Images

In recent years, the climate change conversation has advanced beyond the “Reduce, Reuse, Recycle” catchphrase.

Though individual lifestyle changes can have a positive impact over time, the youth activists at the forefront of the climate movement aren’t leading climate strikes in order to get the everyday individual to switch to reusable straws.

 They’re showing up with demands for government officials and policymakers to put people over profit, raise their voices to ask leaders to care about the future of the planet, and communicate a common message: We’re running out of time.

Zero Hour, an education-focused youth climate and environmental justice movement, has a running countdown on the homepage of its site. Less than nine years and 253 days remain on the clock.

That’s how much time is left before the worst impacts of climate change will be irreversible, according to a 2018 special report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Though so much of the climate movement is made up of children and teenaged activists who may not even be eligible to vote yet, they’re pushing for immediate government action because of this sense of urgency.

“A lot of us feel like we have no choice, because we feel like unless we do it, who else is gonna do it?” says Ivy Jaguzny, the 18-year-old press lead for Zero Hour.

If you’re not immersed in the movement, however, the information can be daunting—and it can be hard to figure out exactly what you can do. So we asked climate activists to break down the most important climate justice policies, how to check candidates on their environmental agendas, and how to join the movement.

Their answers boiled down to two main initiatives: getting the Green New Deal worked into the country’s infrastructure and getting fossil fuels out.

So, what is the Green New Deal and why does it matter?
Mike Kemp, Getty Images

The idea of a “Green New Deal” has been around for a while. Investopedia reports that Pulitzer Prize winner Thomas Friedman coined the term in a New York Times column in January 2007, where he argued for a transition away from fossil fuels and toward clean, renewable energy through government action.

The name is a reference to former President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s domestic programs—the New Deal—which he designed as a response to the Great Depression.

Since the idea was first conceived, the Green New Deal has become somewhat of an umbrella term for environmental policies, with various politicians adding interpretations of the deal to their platforms. In recent years,

 Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has brought widespread attention to the Green New Deal by putting it at the center of her platform, introducing a policy package in Congress in February 2019.

The 14-page document calls for a “10-year national mobilization” plan that aims to rework current U.S. infrastructure in order to transition to 100% clean and renewable energy. Those 10 years weren’t selected at random: The plan is a direct response to that 2018 report mentioned above, and it’s a proposed answer for beating the clock—and avoiding the point of no return.

As The New York Times reports, the Green New Deal also “calls on the federal government to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions; create high-paying jobs; ensure that clean air, clean water, and healthy food are basic human rights; and end all forms of oppression.”

The Green New Deal is central to the platform of Sunrise Movement, a youth-powered organization dedicated to fighting climate change and creating “millions of good jobs in the process,” as its website reads.

Ritwik Tati, a 16-year-old coordinator for the South Jersey hub of Sunrise Movement, says the group is dedicated to both advocating for and educating people on the policy package.

He likes to explain, however, that the Green New Deal is a vision rather than a specific piece of legislation.

“[At Sunrise Movement,] we’re not necessarily having people unpack what the Green New Deal specifically is and what each climate policy is, but making them understand that we need an aggressive climate solution,” Tati says.

Any climate legislation that aligns with the values of the Green New Deal can be considered a part of it, Tati says. Those values include things like efforts to provide living wages for workers and protect marginalized communities, in addition to more climate-specific policies like bans on fossil fuels and fracking.
Climate activists like Tati also emphasize how important it is to understand climate change as an intersectional issue, one that is as connected to systemic racism as it is the environment.
At Zero Hour, Jaguzny says that they see the current coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic as somewhat of a “dress rehearsal,” showing all of the issues the climate crisis will exacerbate if it’s not addressed.

When we talk about the climate crisis, Jaguzny says, “we don’t talk about the people [who] are actually being hurt by this, which is working people, Black and Brown people, Indigenous people, [and] the same people [who] are being [disproportionately] affected by COVID-19.”

Like the current pandemic, Jaguzny says the climate crisis is going to put pressure on our infrastructure and healthcare system and that, if we’re not prepared, “the people [who] are most vulnerable in this country are going to be really negatively impacted.”

She believes that implementing the Green New Deal is the way to be prepared because of how it addresses the underlying systems of oppression that cause and perpetuate the crisis.

One way the Green New Deal does this is in how it plans for a just transition. The plan acknowledges the fact that many workers will lose their jobs if fossil fuel industries are taken down.

So, a just transition makes sure that these workers—many of whom are from low-income, marginalized communities—aren’t simply laid off and ignored, but are supplied with the training and resources to access jobs in the clean energy industry. The plan also pushes for those jobs to offer benefits and living wages.
If implemented, climate activists believe the Green New Deal could provide a holistic approach to reversing the climate crisis. But there’s one major thing standing in its way.
Lukas Schulze, Getty Images

“The biggest thing blocking a Green New Deal is the investment in fossil fuels,” Jaguzny says.

The environmentalism movement has long advocated for a ban on fossil fuels due to their negative impact on the environment.

When fossil fuels are burned, they release carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the environment, making them a primary contributor to global warming and climate change, according to National Geographic. To make matters worse, fossil fuel companies are significant stakeholders in the climate conversation, which can halt any large-scale progress.

Climate activist Ayisha Siddiqa has seen this dynamic play out firsthand. Siddiqa was one of the lead organizers of the September 20th New York City Climate Strike, which attracted 250,000 people, according to Vox. “We did all of our homework,” she says. “Me and my peers worked day in, day out for three entire months planning.”

At the age of 21, Siddiqa says she’s learned things that people usually learn in their late thirties, things like: how to get a permit for an event, how to write a press release, how to lobby. She and her peers put in tireless work to gain momentum for the protests and the climate movement. Then, a few days later, the U.N. Climate Action Summit happened.

“We came in with packets of information that we wanted to say, and we were met with Instagram influencers, people teaching us how to use Photoshop and Adobe Flash Player at the U.N. And policy was not even spoken about,” Siddiqa says.

The same thing happened a few months later at COP25, the 25th United Nations Climate Change Conference. Climate activists showed up, ready to talk policy, and they were shut out from having serious conversations. And Siddiqa has a pretty a good idea for why this happened: COP25 was sponsored by some of Spain’s biggest greenhouse gas polluters and fossil fuel companies.

“If you can understand what’s happening, it’s actually very scary,” Siddiqa says. “The body of government, the place where decisions are supposed to be made, are being sponsored by fossil fuels. How in the world are you supposed to expect actual change if the same people responsible for causing the damage are [controlling the decision-making]?”

The short answer? You can’t. That’s why Siddiqa co-founded Polluters Out, an organization fighting for a conflict of interest policy that would remove the influence of the fossil fuel industry from the places where climate decisions are made.

So, what can you do to support these movements?
Brenton Geach, Getty Images

For starters, you can join them. Polluters Out, Sunrise Movement, and Zero Hour all have various options on their site for those who are interested in taking action to fight climate change. Extinction Rebellion, 350.org, and Fridays For Future are more groups with goals to fight the climate crisis.

Siddiqa also urges people to sign Polluters Out’s petition, which demands that “Patricia Espinosa, executive secretary to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), refuse funding from fossil fuel corporations for COP26.”

On a more local level, Tati recommends that people focus on getting their elected officials to sign the No Fossil Fuel Money Pledge. The pledge is intended to get politicians to refuse to take any contributions over $200 from oil, gas, and coal industry executives, lobbyists, or PACs.

Jaguzny also wants to see a commitment from the government to stop bailing out fossil fuel companies when they’re in debt and to start holding them accountable.

Stop giving these companies tax breaks. Stop allowing them to destroy communities and not pay for it,” she says. “The effects of fossil fuels are local, like there are local communities all over the United States that are being hurt by these companies and the companies don’t do anything. They just turn away.
So Jaguzny’s advice for individuals is to help raise awareness about how these companies are affecting their local communities and to put the pressure on their local governments to divest from fossil fuels.

When it comes to selecting a candidate to endorse or vote for, Tati says that Sunrise Movement looks for “climate champions,” candidates who support the Green New Deal and have shown a commitment to climate legislation in the past.

This election cycle, the movement has endorsed Senate candidates like Kentucky State Representative Charles Booker, former Speaker of the Colorado House of Representatives Andrew Romanoff, and Senator Ed Markey (who sponsored the Green New Deal alongside AOC).

As far as the presidential election goes, with Bernie Sanders now out of the race, Tati says, “I think it’s important that we see that a [Joe] Biden presidency is exponentially better than a Trump presidency, even if it doesn’t align with the goals of the climate movement.”

Biden doesn’t see that as top priority, however./ “Focusing on congressional elections and state legislature elections [are] more important because we may have a Democratic president in office, but none of this progressive policy can be passed without a Congress that is more progressive and is majority Democrat,” Tati says.

Below is a checklist of what Tati and Jaguzny believe a climate champion candidate should look like.

A climate champion candidate:
 
1. Supports the Green New Deal
Though there is some room for interpretation with the Green New Deal, Tati says it’s important not to compromise for a less aggressive version.
This would be one that involves changes, like allowing for a more lenient timeline on reducing emissions, or one that compromises any of the fundamental values which prioritize people over profit.
For example, Tati explains that some Democrats (like Nancy Pelosi and Biden) are advocating for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, which, according to the IPCC’s timeline, will be too late.

2. Supports a ban on fracking and divestment from fossil fuels
Fracking, short for hydraulic fracturing, is a method of extracting natural gas and oil by fracturing the earth with pressurized liquid.
Though some argue that fracking natural gas is a cleaner option than drilling for oil or coal, climate activists argue that the health risks far outweigh any comparative benefits.
According to Greenpeace, a non-governmental environmental organization, fracking can cause a serious threat to local water resources, and some of the chemicals used in the process have been identified as cancer-causing contaminants.
A 2017 study published in the journal Science Advances also found that infants born within about two miles of fracking sites are more likely to suffer from poor health.
As far as divestment from fossil fuels goes, Jaguzny wants to see candidates “acknowledging that the era of fossil fuels is ending and acknowledging that we really cannot get anywhere if we’re still hanging onto fossil fuels.”

3. Supports an economy that is driven by small businesses and localized production
“One thing that COVID-19 has made abundantly clear is that having these huge multinational corporations running the show isn’t economically sustainable, and as soon as any pressure is applied it totally falls apart in a crisis,” Jaguzny says.
She argues that an economy driven by local businesses is far more sustainable, since there’s no shipping overseas or exploitation of workers in other countries.

4. Supports universal healthcare
“Climate change is a healthcare issue,” Tati asserts. “And if we don’t have Medicare for all, the Green New Deal won’t be able to sustain itself.”
The Environmental Protection Agency put out an analysis in 2017 of the impacts of climate change on human health. The findings showed correlations with medical issues like heatstroke, respiratory illness, and an increased risk of the spread of disease.
“The severity of these health risks will depend on the ability of public health and safety systems to address or prepare for these changing threats, as well as factors such as an individual’s behavior, age, gender, and economic status,” the report reads.

5. Shows a willingness to pay for the demands of the Green New Deal
Jaguzny says she’s heard countless legislators tell her, “We can’t pay for your demands.” Based on things like the recent federal relief package and other ways she’s seen the government pull together resources, she says, “We see that and we kind of call bullshit.”
AOC has made it clear that the Green New Deal will be expensive, but she argues that the economic benefits will outweigh the costs. Though the specific costs of the policy package aren’t entirely clear, some evaluations have aligned with AOC’s argument.
For example, the Green New Deal advocates for a smart power grid for the entire country. A 2011 study by the Electric Power Research Institute found that this could cost as much as $476 billion, but it could lead to $2 trillion in benefits.

6. Uplifts marginalized voices
Tati emphasizes the importance of endorsing a candidate who gives voice to underrepresented communities, especially Indigenous communities.
“Not only did we steal land that wasn’t rightfully ours” from them, Tati says, but Indigenous communities have also historically shown a deeper connection with the environment.
“We need to make sure that their voices are represented and that they have a stake in this.”

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The First Three Months Of 2020 Are Already Nearing Temperature Records

QuartzMichael J. Coren

Records keep on falling

Get ready for a hot one. The first three months of 2020 are now the second-hottest on record going back to 1880, according to NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information.

That lines up with the last decade of warming. This March marks the 423rd consecutive month that temperatures have exceeded the 20th-century global average. Last year was the second hottest on record, according to NOAA, following 2016. All five of the warmest years have been recorded since 2015.

The first three months of 2020 are already nearing temperature records 
Monthly temperature anomalies above 20th-century global averages (2000-2020)
Quartz | qz.com Data: NOAA

The early heat makes it virtually certain that 2020 will place in the ranks of the hottest years. Global land and ocean surface temperatures were 2.09°F (1.16°C) above average. 

Records were set across the globe, particularly in eastern Europe and Asia, where temperatures were 5.4°F (3.0°C) above average.



How much hotter is it going to get? Global climate models have proved remarkably accurate, and the world is now running closer to those projected by Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change in 2015. 

Cities will feel the heat sooner: Temperatures in cities such as Moscow, London, Seattle are expected to shift from temperate to sub-tropical, rising 3.5° C to 6° C above normal, according to 2019 research in PLOS One.

Globally, research suggests we’ll see close to 2°C warming by the end of century, even in the most optimistic scenario. And that’s not the path we’re on.

In 2015, scientists introduced “shared socioeconomic pathways” reflecting different ways the world might evolve along key indices such as population, urbanization, and economic growth. 

We’re now far closer to what modelers refer to as the “regional rivalry — a rocky road” scenario, reflecting more nationalism and reduced cooperation. That scenario has global temperature rising more than 4 °C above pre-industrial averages.

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Lethal Heating is a citizens' initiative