05/08/2021

(AU) The City Of Sydney Is Opening A Massive Tech Innovation Hub In Salesforce Tower To Help Tackle Climate Change

Startup Daily -


The soaring 56-storey Salesforce Tower at Sydney’s Circular Quay will be home to a new innovation hub focused on tackling climate change.

Named ‘Greenhouse’, the hub spans 3,800sqm on first three floors at 180 George Street and is due to open next year. It will offer affordable office space for climate tech startups and scaleups, to be run by a subsidiary company of seed investment firm Investible for the next 10 years.

City of Sydney Lord Mayor Clover Moore said creating affordable startup space would help support an important sector of the economy and contribute to the CBD’s post-pandemic recovery.

“Greenhouse is a wonderful opportunity for tech entrepreneurs and the scaleup economy to be located in one of the most advantageous and desirable locations in Australia, and for the City to showcase Sydney’s tech startup ecosystem to the world,” she said.

“By supporting our fastest-growing, sustainability-focused businesses with affordable, premium office space and access to expert-run services and globally competitive talent, we hope to reaffirm Sydney’s reputation as a vibrant and sustainable city and the home of smart, inclusive and green innovation.

“Greenhouse will help to drive the kind of economy our city needs, and I’m delighted that we are one of the key investors.”

The hub aims to directly support more than 100 ventures in creating more than 1,500 new jobs over a decade and creating pathways for early-stage startup to position Sydney as a global leader in climate tech.

Investible co-founder Creel Price will be Greenhouse CEO.

“We’re designing a space that’s optimised for growth; bringing together a diverse group of investors, experts, partners and advisors to provide climate tech businesses with the nutrient capital, talent, programs and community to grow to their fullest potential,” he said.

The City will sublease the hub space to Investible subsidiary, Innovillage Pty Ltd for 10 years and offer a rental subsidy through its Accommodation Grant Program, providing they demonstrate an ongoing community benefit to the tech startup ecosystem.

Greenhouse is expected to open in late 2022.

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04/08/2021

(AU Canberra Times) Public Sector Informant: Reducing Greenhouse Emissions Will Take A Group Effort - Including From Australia

Canberra TimesStephen Bartos

A firefighter passes a burning home as the Dixie Fire flares in California. Picture: AP

Author
Stephen Bartos is a Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
He was Professor of Governance and Director of the National Institute of Governance at the University of Canberra, and is a former deputy secretary of the Commonwealth Department of Finance. 
Stephen Bartos is the author of Against the Grain - The AWB Scandal and Why it Happened.
In recent weeks we have seen extreme climate events, from devastating wildfires in the United States to widespread flooding in Europe.

They are linked to climate change - further support, if any were needed, to the determination of most of the world to address the climate crisis.

It is almost obligatory to note that it is not possible to attribute an individual event to climate change; but that's not the point. Climate change is making extreme weather events like these more frequent and more extreme. That applies both to the US wildfires (we call similar events bushfires) and to Europe's floods.

The same will apply as extreme events - including cyclones, drought, flooding and bushfires - affect Australia with greater frequency in the future.

There are however four outlier countries whose policies, according to the Guardian, differ: China, Russia, Brazil and Australia. The report suggests that if the rest of the world followed these countries' policies the global temperature would rise by 5 per cent: a catastrophic outcome.

That conclusion was based on the non-partisan Paris Equity Check website developed by the University of Melbourne. This country grouping is not a club Australia would normally be comfortable joining. We have more in common with countries like the UK and US whose climate change policies and programs are far more ambitious than ours.

Their main talking point is that Australia contributes only 1.3 per cent of global carbon emissions, so nothing we do will make a significant difference. That argument is wrong. It needs to be put down.
If Australia is concerned that the rest of the world should take action on climate change, the most effective way to ensure that happens is ourselves to take action - helping establish a global norm.
Does this mean that countries with lower emissions should not bother? The argument is often raised in the context of what is asserted to be relative inaction by China (although the Chinese government would dispute that). It is a complicated story.

Moreover, the second highest emitter, the US, is engaged in serious efforts to reduce emissions, as is the third, the European Union.

There is a long history of analysis of collective action problems in economics. They are common. Examples include: taxation - why bother to pay tax, your tax payment is not going to make much difference to the country, it is only a tiny percentage of the total; voting - your vote makes hardly any difference to the result, so why bother; vaccination - if you get vaccinated it will make only a small difference to the total percentage of the population who are: yet that collective number of small impacts means the difference between a vulnerable or a relatively safe population.

Additional carbon emissions will worsen the impacts of climate change. Picture: Shutterstock

One of our major insurers runs an advertisement showing commuters lifting a train off a person trapped underneath (based on a real incident at Stirling railway station in Perth). They all contributed. It would have been easy for smaller commuters to stand back and say "there's a couple of big, strong blokes over there whose efforts will make more of a difference than mine" (you can call them China and the US). The people on that platform all pitched in to help. The same applies with climate change.

This is already happening in Australia. Despite relative inaction by governments, households have the world's highest uptake of rooftop solar power; financial institutions are increasingly demanding commitment to action on climate change before investing in a company; corporations themselves are adopting renewables and reducing emissions.

Does that apply internationally? Absolutely it does. Global norms about how countries should behave influence what governments do. They become institutions. In many cases international treaties and agreements emerge long after the institution. For example, norms on how to treat diplomats were in place well before they were formalised in the 1961 Vienna Convention on diplomatic relations.

There are other arguments as to why the 1.3 per cent argument is misleading, including that Australia has one of the highest per capita emissions rates in the world, and that coal exports mean our actual contribution to climate change is far higher. They are valid, but we don't need them.

The nature of climate change as a collective action problem provides a full and sufficient reason to reject the 1.3 per cent argument. For collective action problems to be solved, everyone has to contribute, small as well as large.

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(AU The Age) ‘We Need More Urgency’: Top Renewable Group Warns Against Paying To Keep Coal Alive

The AgeNick Toscano

The head of the nation’s top renewable energy group has urged legislators to reject a proposal to pay coal and gas-fired power stations to keep operating in order to avoid the shock of sudden closures.

Powering Australian Renewables (PowAR) – a consortium of power giant AGL, the Future Fund and the Queensland Investment Corporation – is the latest clean-energy developer to speak out against a contentious recommendation by the nation’s Energy Security Board that could see fossil fuel generators paid to guarantee future capacity.

A consortium of power giant AGL, the Future Fund and the Queensland Investment Corporation this week takes control of Tilt Renewables’ Australian wind and solar farms. Credit: Joe Armao

Chief executive Geoff Dutaillis warned the move would deter the very investment needed for a smooth transition to a zero-emissions grid.

He told The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald there were better ways to redesign the market and support renewables during periods when weather conditions were unfavourable.

“The sun doesn’t always shine, the wind doesn’t always blow; there will be renewable droughts,” Mr Dutaillis said.

“If we get a diverse pool of resources and an interconnected system linking Queensland, NSW, Victoria, and South Australia properly – and, dare I say, even Tasmania – we will have a diverse, resilient system which allows us to use resources from different parts of the country cost-effectively.”

Renewables
100 per cent renewables by 2025: Grid operator pushes clean energy revolution
Last week, the Energy Security Board sent its final recommendations for a redesign of the energy market to the national Cabinet.

The recommendations include a “capacity mechanism” to pay power generators to guarantee they can dispatch power when required. State and federal ministers are expected to decide on the rule changes within months.

PowAR on Tuesday will become Australia’s largest operator of renewable energy when it assumes control of Tilt Renewables’ wind and solar operations across the country following a $2.7 billion takeover deal earlier this year.

Mr Dutaillis said the consortium was eager to realise the full potential of Tilt’s outstanding development pipeline of energy projects, including more than 3500 megawatts of wind, solar, battery storage and peaking capacity.

However, he expressed dismay at the state of energy politics in Australia and said he believed the Morrison government was overly focused on prolonging the lives of ageing coal generators and expanding the use of gas power to support the shift to renewables.

Energy
Origin Energy takes a $2.2b hit as green shift hurts, coal costs bite
“Scientific assessment and lived experience are telling us every day that we need to act with more urgency, yet we are still in the midst of a debate in Australia where we are talking about subsidising increasingly ageing and unreliable generation beyond their useful life,” he said.

“We need a significant amount of flexibility and dispatchable generation, but that can happen in a renewable world – we’ve got battery technology evolving quickly, we’ve got pumped hydro being talked about every day.”

Mr Dutaillis also called for a greater focus on delivering improvements to the nation’s outdated, coal-based grid, where poor transmission infrastructure is hindering the delivery of clean power around the grid and across state lines.

Although coal still accounts for the majority of the country’s energy supply, an influx of renewable energy into the country’s main power grid in recent years has placed enormous pressure on coal generators by driving down daytime electricity prices to levels where they are unable to compete, threatening early closures.

EnergyAustralia’s Yallourn brown coal plant in Victoria this year announced it would shut down in 2028, four years earlier than planned, and there are expectations across the industry of other plants’ closure dates being brought forward.

Because electricity production is a dominant source of Australia’s emissions, reducing output from coal plants would help sharply reduce the national carbon footprint.

However, the Morrison government and some energy industry leaders are ramping up warnings that unexpectedly early shutdowns of coal-fired generators could raise the danger of blackouts or power bill spikes in the future.

Power plant owners including EnergyAustralia have expressed support for a proposal that would ensure there was always adequate capacity to meet consumer demand and keep the lights on.

“Our market is not providing the right investment signals for the flexible dispatchable capacity the system needs as ageing thermal baseload generation retires and Australia transitions to a low-emissions future,” EnergyAustralia head of markets Ross Edwards said.

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(DeSmog) Scientists Who Issued ‘Climate Emergency’ Declaration In 2019 Now Say Earth’s Vital Signs Are Worsening

DeSmog - Nick Cunningham

A rapid and urgent phaseout of fossil fuels is needed, scientists warn, in order to avoid crossing dangerous climate tipping points.

Wildfires in Chubut, Argentina, March 2021. Credit: Greenpeace Media

From devastating wildfires to rising methane emissions, Earth’s vital signs are continuing to deteriorate, scientists warn.

An urgent global phaseout of fossil fuels is needed, they say, reiterating calls for “transformative change,” which is “needed now more than ever to protect life on Earth and remain within as many planetary boundaries as possible.”

The warning comes roughly a year and a half after a global coalition of 11,000 climate scientists declared a climate emergency, warning that global action was needed to avoid “untold suffering due to the climate crisis.”

The new paper examining Earth’s vital signs, published in the journal BioScience, is authored by some of the same scientists who helped spearhead the climate emergency declaration.

“There is growing evidence we are getting close to or have already gone beyond tipping points associated with important parts of the Earth system, including warm-water coral reefs, the Amazon rainforest and the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets,” William Ripple, a professor of ecology at Oregon State University (OSU) and one of the paper’s lead authors, said in a statement.

The team of researchers and scientists, collaborating from Massachusetts in the U.S., Australia, the U.K., France, the Netherlands, Bangladesh, and Germany, took stock of 31 variables that collectively offer a gauge for the planet’s health. Many of those metrics have worsened since the group originally declared a climate emergency in 2019.

Both methane and carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have reached new record highs, the study reveals.

Sea ice has dramatically shrunk, and so too has the ice mass in Greenland and Antarctica.

Wildfires in the U.S. are burning more acreage.

And deforestation in the Amazon is occurring at its fastest rate in 12 years.

Ruminant livestock — cows, sheep and goats — now exceed 4 billion, and their total mass exceeds that of humans and wild animals combined.

Cows in particular are huge contributors to climate change due methane emissions released from belching, and deforestation resulting from clearing land for livestock.


Forests cleared in Brazil for agriculture. Credit: CIFOR. CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

The global pandemic offered only a modest and brief respite from some of these trends, the scientists note, such as a short drop in the use of fossil fuels as the world went into lockdown, but a quick rebound in oil and gas consumption demonstrates that the world remains stuck on a dangerous track.

The worsening vital signs “largely reflect the consequences of unrelenting business as usual,” the authors said in a statement.

Not every data point was negative, however, and there were some signs of hope. The level of fossil fuel subsidies has declined since 2019, although part of that was due to the collapse of energy use and market prices during the pandemic.

Fossil fuel divestment also picked up pace, increasing by $6.5 trillion between 2018 and 2020. And a growing number of governments have officially recognized the climate emergency — pledging to cut emissions and accelerate a push towards clean energy.

The authors also note that the share of global greenhouse gas emissions coming under some form of carbon pricing — a way of discouraging unchecked greenhouse gas emissions — also increased from 14.4 percent to 23.2 percent, largely due to expanding carbon pricing in China.

While that offered some hope, the scientists found that the global average carbon price under these programs stood at around US$15.49 per ton, much too low to ratchet down emissions.

The authors said global carbon pricing needs to increase “severalfold to be highly effective” in cutting the use of fossil fuels, and it should be linked to a “socially just green climate fund to finance climate mitigation and adaptation policies in the Global South.”

The scientists said the world needs to rapidly phase out fossil fuels, scale up carbon pricing programs at the global level, and develop climate reserves to protect natural carbon sinks such as forests, wetlands, and mangroves.

“Policies to alleviate the climate crisis or any of the other threatened planetary boundary transgressions should not be focused on symptom relief but on addressing their root cause: the overexploitation of the Earth,” the authors wrote in their paper.

The warning comes as politicians continue to drag their feet on ambitious climate action.

On July 22, a report from BloombergNEF was released, finding that G20 countries — the richest nations in the world — subsidized fossil fuels by roughly $3.3 trillion between 2015 and 2019.

The following day, the environment ministers of G20 countries met in Naples, Italy.

They failed, however, to reach a consensus on calling for a global phaseout of coal, and they also could not agree on tightening up the climate goals laid out in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

The summit in Naples is meant to lay the groundwork for the much more important climate negotiations to be held in Glasgow later this year.

Flood damage in Germany. Credit: Greenpeace Media.

The Ponina Fire in Oregon, April 2021. Credit: National Interagency Fire Center.

Meanwhile, governments are also not following global calls to shift their pandemic-related economic recovery programs to forms of “green stimulus.”

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said only 2 percent of global fiscal stimulus is being funneled into clean energy.

“Not only is clean energy investment still far from what’s needed to put the world on a path to reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century, it’s not even enough to prevent global emissions from surging to a new record,” IEA executive director Fatih Birol said.

The lagging response to a worsening climate crisis comes despite the destruction from disasters becoming more pronounced, with record heat in the Pacific Northwest, wildfires across the American West and in Siberia, and horrendous floods in China, Belgium, and Germany.

“Climate change is not abstract right now. It is in our face,” Ripple of OSU told DeSmog. “Just seeing the suffering around the fires, the floods, the heat waves and the drought … it’s accelerating a lot faster than I personally thought even two years ago when we made our scientist warning of a climate emergency declaration.”

“I think we’re all sitting back and reassessing,” Ripple said. “A lot of us are shocked about the speed and magnitude of what’s happening right now.”

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03/08/2021

(AU ABC) Legal Challenge Launched Against Federal Government's $21 Million Beetaloo Basin Grant

ABC NewsKate Ashton

Opening up the Beetaloo Basin has been identified as a priority in the Federal government's "gas-led recovery". (Supplied: Empire Energy)

Key Points
  • The government grants were awarded as part of a $50 million program to speed up gas exploration in the NT
  • Environmentalists will argue the decision did not consider climate change 
  • Minister Keith Pitt says the lawsuit is baseless and will threaten jobs
Environmental groups are challenging a federal government decision to award millions of dollars in grants to a fracking company searching for gas buried deep in the Beetaloo Basin.

The Environment Centre NT and the Environmental Defenders Office have filed urgent legal action against Minister for Resources and Water, Keith Pitt, alleging he did not consider the potential risk to climate change or Australia's obligations under the Paris Agreement in his bid to expedite gas exploration in the Beetaloo Basin.

Earlier this month, the minister awarded three grants totalling $21 million to energy company Imperial Oil and Gas, a subsidiary of Empire Energy, to support three new exploration wells and "create thousands of jobs".

Documents filed in the Federal Court show lawyers will argue Mr Pitt failed to act in a way that was "reasonable, rational and logical".

Co-director of the Environment Centre NT (ENCT), Dr Kirsty Howey, said the grants were an irresponsible use of public funds.
"We want to see taxpayers money used wisely and with all the consequences being fully considered," she said.
"Granting $21 million to a private fossil fuel company should only be done after all care is taken to examine the impacts on climate change, the environment and the community.

Environment Centre NT co-director Kirsty Howey is asking the government to pause the grants program while the legal challenge takes its course. (ABC: Dane Hirst)

"The law requires the minister to be satisfied that the expenditure is a proper use of money … we say that means inquiries into the risks of a heating climate if the heart of the Northern Territory was opened up to fracking."

Minister Pitt condemned the lawsuit as a threat to thousands of jobs.

"This is another example of activists using the courts with baseless allegations to try and delay a nationally important resources project," he said.
"This latest case of green "lawfare" declared on legitimate projects threatens to delay an estimated 6000 new jobs being delivered for the Northern Territory along with around $37 billion on economic activity."
The Environmental Defenders Office, running the case on behalf of the ECNT, said the court battle would examine if proper process was followed when awarding the grants.

"Before making a decision to grant these funds, the relevant minister needed to make reasonable inquiries into a range of risks, including climate and economic risks, that may arise from the expenditure," Environmental Defenders Office chief executive David Morris said.

"We will argue on behalf of our client that the federal government did not make these reasonable inquiries, and thus the minister's decision is invalid."

The decision by Minister Keith Pitt, pictured with NT Environment Minister Eva Lawler, is facing a new legal challenge from the Environment Centre NT. (ABC News: Michael Donnelly)

The Beetaloo Basin is one of five Australian gas fields the federal government plans to accelerate development under its "gas-led recovery" from coronavirus.

The grants were awarded as part of the $50 million Beetaloo co-operative drilling program, first announced by Mr Pitt and NT CLP Senator Sam McMahon in December last year.

Mr Pitt said the grants were administered in line with proper process.

"Grants are provided to companies that possess the highly specialised skills to meet the challenges of developing the Basin as determined by an expert assessment panel," he said.

Empire Energy declined a request by the ABC to comment on the legal action, but at a senate hearing on Wednesday said it had not yet received the grant money.

The Environment Centre NT has called on the minister to halt the grants until the matter has been considered by the court.

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(Modern Diplomacy) Sink Or Swim: Can Island States Survive The Climate Crisis?

Modern Diplomacy

The aftermath of Hurricane Irma in Barbuda. UNDP/Michael Atwood

Small island nations across the world are bearing the brunt of the climate crisis, and their problems have been accentuated by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has severely affected their economies, and their capacity to protect themselves from possible extinction.

We take a look at some of the many challenges they face, and how they could be overcome.

Low emissions, but high exposure


The 38 member states and 22 associate members that the UN has designated as Small Island Developing States  or SIDS are caught in a cruel paradox: they are collectively responsible for less than one per cent of global carbon emissions, but they are suffering severely from the effects of climate change, to the extent that they could become uninhabitable.

Although they have a small landmass, many of these countries are large ocean states, with marine resources and biodiversity that are highly exposed to the warming of the oceans.

They are often vulnerable to increasingly extreme weather events, such as the devastating cyclones that have hit the Caribbean in recent years, and because of their limited resources, they find it hard to allocate funds to sustainable development programmes that could help them to cope better,for example, constructing more robust buildings that could withstand heavy storms.

The COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the economic situation of many island states, which are heavily dependent on tourism. The worldwide crisis has severely curtailed international travel, making it much harder for them to repay debts.

“Their revenues have virtually evaporated with the end of tourism, due to lockdowns, trade impediments, the fall in commodity prices, and supply chain disruptions”, warned Munir Akram, the president of the UN Economic and Social Council in April. He added that their debts are “creating impossible financial problems for their ability to recover from the crisis.”

Most research indicates that low-lying atoll islands, predominantly in the Pacific Ocean such as the Marshall Islands and Kiribati, risk being submerged by the end of the century, but there are indications that some islands will become uninhabitable long before that happens: low-lying islands are likely to struggle with coastal erosion, reduced freshwater quality and availability due to saltwater inundation of freshwater aquifers.

This means that small islands nations could find themselves in an almost unimaginable situation, in which they run out of fresh water long before they run out of land.

Furthermore, many islands are still protected by reefs, which play a key role in the fisheries industry and balanced diets. These reefs are projected to die off almost entirely unless we limit warming below 1.5 degrees celsius.

Despite the huge drop in global economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic, the amount of harmful greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere increased in 2002, and the past six years, 2015–2020, are likely to be the six warmest on record.

Climate finance (climate-specific financial support) continues to increase, reaching an annual average of $48.7 billion in 2017-2018. This represents an increase of 10% over the previous 2015–2016 period.

While over half of all climate-specific financial support in the period 2017-2018 was targeted to mitigation actions, the share of adaptation support is growing, and is being prioritized by many countries. 

This is a cost-effective approach, because if not enough is invested in adaptation and mitigation measures, more resources will need to be spent on action and support to address loss and damage.

Switching to renewables

SIDS are dependent on imported petroleum to meet their energy demands. As well as creating pollution, shipping the fossil fuel to islands comes at a considerable cost. Recognizing these problems, some of these countries have been successful in efforts to shift to renewable energy sources.

For example, Tokelau, in the South Pacific, is meeting close to 100 per cent  of its energy needs through renewables, while Barbados, in the Caribbean, is committed to powering the country with 100 per cent renewable energy sources and reaching zero carbon emissions by 2030.

Several SIDS have also set ambitious renewable energy targets: Samoa, the Cook Islands, Cabo Verde, Fiji, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Vanuatu are aiming to increase the share of renewables in their energy mixes, from 60 to 100 per cent, whilst in 2018, Seychelles launched the world’s first sovereign blue bond, a pioneering financial instrument to support sustainable marine and fisheries projects.

The power of traditional knowledge

The age-old practices of indigenous communities, combined with the latest scientific innovations, are being increasingly seen as important ways to adapt to the changes brought about by the climate crisis, and mitigate its impact. 

In Papua New Guinea, local residents use locally-produced coconut oil as a cheaper, more sustainable alternative to diesel; seafaring vessels throughout the islands of Micronesia and Melanesia in the Pacific are using solar panels and batteries instead of internal combustion; mangrove forests are being restored on islands like Tonga and Vanuatu to address extreme weather as they protect communities against storm surges and sequester carbon; and in the Pacific, a foundation is building traditional Polynesian canoes, or vakas, serving as sustainable passenger and cargo transport for health services, education, disaster relief and research.

Strategies for survival

While SIDS have brought much needed attention to the plight of vulnerable nations, much remains to be done to support them in becoming more resilient, and adapting to a world of rising sea levels and extreme weather events.

On average, SIDS are more severely indebted than other developing countries, and the availability of “climate financing” (the money which needs to be spent on a whole range of activities which will contribute to slowing down climate change) is of key importance. 

More than a decade ago, developed countries committed to jointly mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 in support of climate action in developing countries; the amount these nations are receiving is rising, but there is still a significant financing gap. A recently published UN News feature story explains how climate finance works, and the UN’s role.

Beyond adaptation and resilience to climate change, SIDS also need support to help them thrive in an ever-more uncertain world. The UN, through its Development Programme (UNDP), is helping these vulnerable countries in a host of ways, so that they can successfully diversify their economies; improve energy independence by building up renewable sources and reducing dependence on fuel imports; create and develop sustainable tourism industries, and transition to a “blue economy”, which protects and restores marine environments.

Fighting for recognition

For years, SIDS have been looking for ways to raise awareness of their plight and gain international support. As the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in 1990, they successfully lobbied for recognition of their particular needs in the text of the landmark UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) two years later.

Since then, the countries have continued to push for a greater emphasis on ensuring that international agreements include a commitment to providing developing countries with the funds to adapt to climate change.

An important step was ensuring that climate change negotiations address the issue of “loss and damage” (i.e. things that are lost forever, such as human lives or the loss of species, while damages refers to things that are damaged, but can be repaired or restored, such as roads or sea walls etc.).

SIDS continue to urge developed nations to show more ambition and commitment to tackling the climate crisis, and strongly support calls for a UN resolution to establish a legal framework to protect the rights of people displaced by climate change, and for the UN to appoint a Special Rapporteur on Climate and Security, to help manage climate security risks and provide support to vulnerable countries to develop climate-security risk assessments.

SIDS have also advocated for eligibility to development finance to recognize the vulnerabilities they face, including from climate change hazards. The UN will release its recommendations in a report due to be released in August 2021.

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(USA NBC) Earth's Energy Imbalance Removes Almost All Doubt From Human-Made Climate Change

NBC NewsDenise Chow

Researchers studying Earth's absorption of the sun's energy found a less than 1 percent probability that the recent changes occurred naturally.'

Earth's horizon seen from the International Space Station as it orbits above the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Chile, on Nov. 21. NASA

For decades, Earth’s energy system has been out of whack.

Stability in Earth's climate hinges on a delicate balance between the amount of energy the planet absorbs from the sun and the amount of energy Earth emits back into space. But that equilibrium has been thrown off in recent years — and the imbalance is growing, according to a paper published Wednesday in the journal Nature Communications.

The changes to Earth's energy system have major ramifications for the planet's future climate and humanity's understanding of climate change.

The Princeton University researchers behind the paper found that there's a less than 1 percent probability that the changes occurred naturally.

The findings undercut a key argument used by people who do not believe human activity is responsible for the bulk of climate change to explain trends in global warming, demonstrating that the planet's energy imbalance cannot be explained just by Earth's own natural variations.

The research also offers important insights into how greenhouse gas emissions and other consequences of human-caused climate change are upsetting the planet's equilibrium and driving global warming, sea-level rise and extreme weather events.

"With more and more changes to the planet, we've created this imbalance where we have surplus energy in the system," said Shiv Priyam Raghuraman, a graduate student in atmospheric and oceanic sciences at Princeton and lead author of the study. "That surplus manifests as different symptoms."

Emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases from human activities trap heat in the atmosphere, meaning the planet absorbs infrared radiation that would normally be released into space.

Melting sea ice, changing cloud cover and differences in the concentration of tiny atmospheric particles called aerosols — all of which are affected by climate change — also mean Earth is reflecting less of the sun's radiation back into the cosmos.

"There isn't this equilibrium between energy coming in from the sun and energy going out," Raghuraman said. "The question is: Are these natural planetary variations, or is it us?"

The researchers used satellite observations from 2001 to 2020 to determine that Earth's energy imbalance is growing. They then used a series of climate models to simulate the effects on Earth's energy system if human-caused climate change was taken out of the equation.

The scientists found that natural fluctuations alone could not explain the trend observed over the 20-year period.

"It was almost impossible — a less than 1 percent probability — that such a large increase in the imbalance was from Earth's own oscillations and variations," Raghuraman said.

The study focused on cause and effect, but Raghuraman said the findings have critical societal and policy implications.

Oceans store approximately 90 percent of the planet's excess heat, which causes rising seas and can trigger hurricane formation and other extreme weather events. The remaining heat is taken up by the atmosphere and land, which increases global surface temperatures and contributes to melting snow and ice.

If Earth's energy imbalance continues to grow, consequences that are already being felt today will likely be exacerbated, said Norman Loeb, a physical scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia, who was not involved with the study.

"We're going to see temperatures rise, sea levels rise, more snow and ice melting," Loeb said. "Everything you see in the news — forest fires, droughts — those just get worse if you add more heat."

Loeb led a joint study by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that found Earth's energy imbalance approximately doubled from 2005 to 2019. The paper was published last month in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Loeb said the Princeton study confirms what was outlined in his own research, which used 14 years of observations from satellite sensors and an array of instruments in the ocean.

He added that human activities, or what's known as anthropogenic forcing, are undeniably having an effect but some natural variation is likely also at play. For instance, some planetary oscillations can operate on cycles that last multiple decades, which can make it tricky to tease out the fingerprints of climate change.

"Anthropogenic forcing is there for sure," he said, "but the ocean is a key player in climate and it operates on much slower time scales. Ideally, you really want to be able to have these types of measurements over 50 years or more."

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Lethal Heating is a citizens' initiative