15/11/2021

(The Guardian) Cop26 Reactions: ‘Rich Nations Have Kicked The Can Down The Road’

The Guardian - Guardian staff

Cop26 president Alok Sharma, centre, speaks during the UN climate conference. Photograph: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

Diplomats, scientists, charities and NGOs have been commenting on the adoption of the “Glasgow climate pact” at the end of the Cop26 conference. Here are some of their initial thoughts.

Laurence Tubiana, one of the architects of the 2015 Paris deal and now CEO of the European Climate Foundation

“Paris is working. Despite the Covid-19 crisis, we have accelerated action, responded to the [scientists’] call to close the gap towards 1.5C, and coal is in the text. But there is a lot more to do.

"The commitments and claims of the first week on finance, forests, end of public finance for fossil fuel, methane and cars must now be translated into real policy and oil and gas production still to be addressed.

“This Cop has failed to provide immediate assistance for people suffering now. I welcome the doubling of adaptation finance as climate impacts are every year stronger, [but] loss and damage must be at the top of the agenda for Cop27."

Vanessa Nakate, climate activist from Uganda

“Even if leaders stuck to the promises they have made here in Glasgow, it would not prevent the destruction of communities like mine. Right now, at 1.2C of global warming, drought and flooding are killing people in Uganda.

"Only immediate, drastic emissions cuts will give us hope of safety, and world leaders have failed to rise to the moment.

“But people are joining our movement. 100,000 people from all different backgrounds came to the streets in Glasgow during Cop and the pressure for change is building.”

Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa

“This summit has been a triumph of diplomacy over real substance. The outcome here reflects a Cop held in the rich world and the outcome contains the priorities of the rich world.

“We are leaving empty-handed [on loss and damage] but morally stronger and hopeful that we can sustain the momentum in the coming year to deliver meaningful support which will allow the vulnerables to deal with the irreversible impacts of climate change created by the polluting world who are failing to take responsibility.”

Alden Meyer, senior associate at the thinktank E3G

“We saw a call here in Glasgow for emergency actions to deal with the existential threat of climate change – and some important initiatives were launched. But whether enough countries raise their 2030 ambition enough to keep 1.5C in reach [when they return in 2022] will be the real test of the success of this Cop26.

“As a lifelong optimist, I see the Glasgow outcome as half-full rather than half-empty. But the atmosphere responds to emissions – not Cop decisions – and much work remains ahead to translate the strong rhetoric here into reality.”

José Gregorio Mirabal Díaz, elected leader of Coica (an umbrella body that includes indigenous leaders from the nine Amazon nations)

“We will always have the hope that we can stop the climate crisis with the support of all, but until now the extractivism development model has deceived the world. This must change now.

“If the solution is to protect nature to avoid climate change, this can only be done with giving land titles for indigenous peoples, allowing us to self-demarcate our territories so that external invasions do not come, whether of oil, gold, mining or any type of extractive exploitation.”

Jennifer Morgan, executive director of Greenpeace International

[On India rewording the language from “phasing out” coal to “phasing down”]

“They changed a word but they can’t change the signal coming out of this Cop, that the era of coal is ending. If you’re a coal company executive, this Cop saw a bad outcome.

“It’s in the interests of all countries, including those who still burn coal, to transition to clean renewable energy, and richer countries need to do more to support the shift. Our future depends on it.”

Rachel Kennerley, climate campaigner at Friends of the Earth

“The road to 1.5C just got harder when these talks should have cleared the way to making it a whole lot easier.

“The UK government cunningly curated announcements throughout this fortnight so that it seemed rapid progress was being made. Here we are though, and the Glasgow get-out clause means that leaders failed to phase out fossil fuels and the richest countries won’t pay historic climate debt.

“With the Cop moment over, countries should break away from the pack in their race for meaningful climate action and let history judge the laggards.

"The UK, as a country with huge historical responsibility for emissions, can end support for a mega gas project in Mozambique, pull the plug on the Cambo oilfield, stop the new coalmine in Cumbria and drilling for oil in Surrey. After all, the prime minister talked a big game at the beginning of the fortnight.”

Amanda Mukwashi, CEO of Christian Aid

“We were told that Cop26 was the last best chance to keep 1.5C alive but it’s been placed on life support. Rich nations have kicked the can down the road and with it the promise of the urgent climate action people on the frontline of this crisis need.

“After two weeks of negotiations, the voices of those experiencing the harsh impacts of climate change have largely been excluded and not been heeded. Warm words on loss and damage and finance for developing countries to adapt to climate change are not good enough.

"Rich nations need to accept their responsibility, put their money where their mouths are, and provide the billions needed. Developing nations have done the least to cause this crisis but have shown commitment to tackling it.”

Lord Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change

“Overall, Cop26 has been a major step along the way, but it has still left us far short of the target of limiting warming to 1.5C. That it is why it is so important that countries agree to put forward by the end of next year more ambitious pledges for emissions cuts by 2030.

"Cop26 embodied a shared understanding of just how dangerous our current path is, and indeed the dangers of warming beyond 1.5C.

“There is so much work to do over the next 12 months ahead of Cop27 in Egypt. The work on finance will be crucial to raising ambition. If we are slow to unlock the finance, we will be slow to raise the ambition.”

Links

(Deutsche Welle) COP26: 'Blah, Blah, Blah' As World Nears Climate 'Catastrophe'

Deutsche Welle

Despite governments reaching a global climate agreement at the Glasgow conference, many have been left disappointed with the outcome. Climate campaigners say it's not enough to contain dangerous temperature rises.

After two weeks of climate talks, many left Glasgow disappointed with the compromise negotiators reached

After two weeks of tortuous negotiations, delegates of nearly 200 nations gathered in Scotland's Glasgow city reached an agreement on Saturday to combat climate change.   

The deal "gives us confidence that we can provide a safe and prosperous space for humanity on this planet,'' said Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, the EU's executive arm. However, she warned "there is still hard work ahead" and stressed that "there will be no time to relax." The EU's lead negotiator, Franz Timmermans, said the text agreed "keeps alive the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius." He also added that "it is a text which acknowledges the needs of developing countries for climate finance, and sets out a process to deliver on those needs.''

Germany's Environment Minister Svenja Schulze underlined that the pact would speed up global action against global warming and climate change.

"Glasgow is bringing a clear acceleration for climate change, and more speed is necessary," she said. "The fossil fuel era is coming to an end, the energy transition is becoming the model worldwide."

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose country hosted the talks, said the deal was a big step forward and he hoped it would mark the beginning of the end of climate change.

"There is still a huge amount more to do in the coming years," Johnson said in a statement. "But today's agreement is a big step forward and, critically, we have the first-ever international agreement to phase down coal and a roadmap to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees.

"I hope that we will look back on COP26 in Glasgow as the beginning of the end of climate change, and I will continue to work tirelessly towards that goal." Late drama over coal

There was last-minute drama at the conference, with India raising objections to the text related to coal use in the agreement.

Following India's objections, the language of the deal was watered down from "phasing out" to "phasing down" coal power, weakening the original text.

European countries, environmental campaigners and some small island states that are most under threat from global warming criticized the changes.

Tina Stege, the climate envoy of Marshall Islands, said that the package "is not perfect," pointing out that the change of text on coal and a weak outcome on loss and damage "are blows."

Still, she stressed that progress was made. "It is real progress and elements of the Glasgow package are a lifeline for my country. We must not discount the crucial wins covered in this package."

Alok Sharma. the British official who chaired the Glasgow talks, said he wished he had been able to preserve the originally agreed language on phasing out coal power in the deal.

"Of course I wish that we had managed to preserve the language on coal that was originally agreed," he said. "Nevertheless, we do have language on coal, on phase down, and I don't think anyone at the start of this process would have necessarily expected that that would have been retained."

US and China pledge more cooperation on climate 2min 42sec

'Era of coal is ending'

US climate envoy John Kerry said governments had no choice but to accept India's coal language change, "If we hadn't done that we wouldn't have had an agreement." But he insisted the deal was good news for the world.

"We are in fact closer than we have ever been before to avoiding climate chaos and securing cleaning air, safer water and healthier planet,'' he said later at a news conference.

Climate NGO Greenpeace's executive director Jennifer Morgan stressed that the "era of coal is ending."

"They changed a word but they can't change the signal coming out of this COP, that the era of coal is ending," she said. "If you're a coal company executive this COP saw a bad outcome."
  Indonesia: Coal power comes at a high cost 2min 14sec

'Extreme disappointment' over 'loss and damage'

Vulnerable and poorer nations have argued for decades that rich countries owe them compensation for the irreversible damages from climate shocks.

But wealthy countries fear being found liable for natural calamities and having to pay massive sums in compensation every time an environmental disaster strikes.

As a result, no UN climate conference has resulted in any funding under the "loss and damage" tag for the countries most affected.

The Glasgow pact also failed to make much progress on the issue, given resistance from the US, the EU and some other rich nations.

Guinea, representing the developing-nation group at the talks, expressed "extreme disappointment" at the decision to initiate only a "dialogue" to talk about "arrangements for the funding of activities to avert, minimize and address loss and damage."

Low-lying small island nations that fear losing much of their land to rising sea levels — from the Marshall Islands to Fiji and Antigua — also said they were dissatisfied the fund they had called for had not been created.

Effects of deforestation in South America 2min 46sec

Nothing but 'blah, blah, blah'

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that the agreement was a compromise.

"The approved texts are a compromise. They reflect the interests, the conditions, the contradictions and the state of political will in the world today," he said.

"They take important steps, but unfortunately the collective political will was not enough to overcome some deep contradictions."

He also warned that our planet is "hanging by a thread" and that "we are still knocking on the door of climate catastrophe." Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg, meanwhile, said that the COP26 talks had achieved nothing but "blah, blah, blah."

"The real work continues outside these halls. And we will never give up, ever," the figurehead of the Fridays for Future movement posted on Twitter.

Links

(AU Climate Council) COP26 Ends With Stark Warning: Step Up On Emission Cuts This Decade Aus, Or Pay The Price

Climate Council


AUSTRALIA’S international reputation has taken a battering as nations leave COP26 with a renewed sense of urgency to act on climate change this decade.

The negotiations, which came to an end around 6.45am AEDT this morning, place enormous pressure on Australia to step up its efforts during the critical years ahead.

The Glasgow Climate Pact requires countries to strengthen their 2030 climate targets in 2022, recognising global emissions must fall 45 per cent by 2030 to limit warming to 1.5°C – a matter of survival for many vulnerable communities.
For the first time in 26 years of COP summits, there is a specific call to move beyond coal power and phase out fossil fuel subsidies.
Climate Council Head of Research Dr Simon Bradshaw said 140 countries lifted their game on climate action at COP26, while Australia cemented its reputation as a laggard and blocker.

“The federal government showed up empty-handed to a pivotal moment in the fight for our future. They’ve let down our Pacific neighbours, as well as Australians who do not deserve to endure more frequent and severe bushfires, floods, droughts and heatwaves,” Dr Bradshaw said.

“As our allies and trading partners rise to the climate challenge, we’re stuck in a polluting past with a handful of countries including Russia and Saudi Arabia. The Government’s own Net Zero modelling, released two days ago, predicts Australia will still be a major coal and gas exporter in 2050.

“The Glasgow Climate Pact has made it very clear that our government must come back to the table next year with a stronger 2030 target. It’s time to slash carbon pollution this decade, as if our futures depended on it – because they do.”

Pledges made at COP26 still leave the world on track for over 2°C of warming, and so success depends on these commitments and actions being rapidly scaled up in the wake of Glasgow.

Climate Council CEO Amanda McKenzie said: “The federal government has tarnished Australia’s good name in Glasgow failing to put forward a meaningful 2030 emissions reduction target.

“All Australians will pay the price. We’re the sunniest country in the world but we’re missing opportunities in the clean energy race. We are feeling the worsening consequences of climate change.

“Australians all over the country are doing their best and will rightly be disappointed. They are rolling up their sleeves to do more on climate, but the Morrison government is all talk no action. It’s downright reckless.

“The Morrison government must do better. All new fossil fuel expansion must cease, and we need to phase out their use as quickly as possible. Let’s show the world what we’re really made of.”

Links

14/11/2021

(AU The Guardian) Australia Shown To Have Highest Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Coal In World On Per Capita Basis

The Guardian

Analysis released at Cop26 climate summit shows Australia’s per capita emissions from coal power nearly double those of China

An analysis released by British climate and energy thinktank Ember at the Cop26 summit in Glasgow shows Australia has the highest greenhouse gas emissions from coal power in the world on a per capita basis. Photograph: Saeed Khan/AFP/Getty Images

Australia has the highest greenhouse gas emissions from coal power in the world on a per capita basis, nearly doubling those in China, according to a new analysis released at the Cop26 climate summit in Glasgow.

As the talks headed towards a fraught final day, there was disagreement over whether a closing declaration would commit countries to return with stronger short-term emissions reduction targets next year, and explicitly support an accelerated phaseout of coal.

The British climate and energy thinktank Ember released an analysis that suggested the world’s wealthiest countries remained among the worst emitters from coal power once population was factored in.         

Australia topped the list, with annual per person emissions five times greater than the global average and 40% higher than any other major coal power user.

Examining the period since the landmark Paris agreement was signed in 2015, the analysis found Australia emitted 5.34 tonnes of carbon dioxide per person each year, placing it ahead of South Korea (3.81), South Africa (3.19), the US (3.08) and the world’s biggest outright emitter, China (2.71).

Ember cited the International Energy Agency to argue OECD countries including Australia should end coal power by 2030 if they were to play their part in attempting to keep global heating to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels – a goal of the Paris agreement – within reach.

Coal power emissions per capita, G20 nations above world average
Annual average 2015-2020 in tonnes of C02
Guardian graphic | Source: Ember

The Morrison government has rejected this and did not join a group of countries that pledged to phase out burning coal for electricity.

Dave Jones, Ember’s global program lead, said Cop26 had seen a divergence between developing Asian countries and major OECD coal users over the need to close coal generation.

Vietnam had pledged to stop building coal plants and to stop using it in the 2040s, and Indonesia, the Philippines and India had shown signs they were changing previously held positions.

He said by comparison arguments put forward by Australia, Japan and South Korea were “embarrassing” and “simply untenable”.

“They will undoubtedly be forced to change their position in the coming months,” Jones said.

Ban Ki-moon, a former UN secretary general and deputy chair of The Elders, an international non-governmental organisation of senior statespeople, said the potential of renewable energy was growing exponentially and OECD countries needed to align with the target of phasing out coal entirely by the end of the decade. “This will be a true demonstration of global leadership,” he said.

About 60% of Australia’s electricity over the past year came from burning coal. That proportion is gradually diminishing and the country’s coal fleet is ageing, but under current closure schedules it would continue to use coal power until the late 2040s.

The Morrison government has been heavily criticised in Glasgow for its ongoing support of fossil fuels.

Greenpeace International head Jennifer Morgan grouped it with Saudi Arabia as a “wrecker” opposed to the action needed to cut emissions and provide the finance needed to help developing countries respond.

Australia was one of only four countries, along with Indonesia, Mexico and Singapore, that chose to just resubmit the same 2030 emissions target at Cop26.

Australia’s has committed to only a 26-28% cut compared with 2005 levels, though government projections suggest it could make a cut of up to 35%, in part due to state government policies. Scientists have advised global emissions need to be cut by 45% by the end of the decade.

Mary Robinson, a former president of Ireland and chair of The Elders, said leaders of developing countries were “in crisis mode” at the talks but some leaders who could do the most to address the problem were not. She bracketed Australia with Saudi Arabia, Brazil, China and Russia.

“Australia, a wealthy country, is still in fossil fuel mode, not in crisis mode,” she told the UK’s Sky News.

The talks were boosted late on Wednesday by a surprise joint declaration by the two biggest emitters, China and the US, that they would work together to cut emissions in the crucial next decade.

But there was significant disagreement between countries over a draft text released Wednesday morning.

It included a proposal that countries return to the negotiating table next year with new plans to ramp up emission cuts this decade.

Under the Paris agreement, countries are expected to return with better pledges in 2025 but - with a chasm between existing commitments and the deep cuts needed - many are now demanding the deadline should be brought forward.

The draft text also proposed countries agree to accelerate the phasing out of coal and subsidies for fossil fuels.

Australia has not been represented at a political level at the talks since Angus Taylor, the emissions reduction minister, left a week ago, and it has not made public its position on key parts of draft text released on Wednesday morning.

But Scott Morrison has previously strongly opposed suggestions coal power should be actively phased out, and said he has no plans to increase Australia’s 2030 commitment.

In a statement on Thursday, Taylor said Australia was “an active and constructive participant in the negotiations to ensure a positive outcome”.

There is dispute between countries over whether the text will keep a reference to the scientific case for limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, with some large developing countries reportedly opposed.

Poor countries said much more needed to be done to increase finance packages to help them cut emissions and cope with the impacts of climate breakdown.

Scientists at the talks expressed frustration that rhetoric from global leaders was not being matched by action, and warned that every extra fraction of a degree of global heating would have dire consequences.

Links

(AU ABC) Government's Emissions Reduction Modelling Draws Researchers' Criticism, Industry Approval

ABC News - Claudia Long

The modelling compares two "scenarios" for Australia — one where we didn't commit to net zero, and one where we did. (ABC News)


Key Points
  • Some researchers say the model is overly optimistic about the contributions of the private sector, particularly when it comes to hydrogen
  • Industry representatives have welcomed the modelling
  • The head of the Australian Industry Group says there's a lot of work to be done and "a lot of things are going to have to go right"
Researchers are concerned by the modelling underpinning the government's plan to reduce emissions, but industry representatives say its release is a step in the right direction.

The exact plan for reducing the remaining 15 per cent is still yet to be determined, with the government pinning those emissions reductions on technology developments that haven't happened yet.

So what have researchers and industry made of the document?

'May as well have been written in crayon' Tim Baxter, a senior researcher with the Climate Council, is unimpressed by the modelling.

"This piece of analysis may as well have been written in crayon," he said.

"One of the most egregious aspects of the plan is that what is supposed to be a credible plan to reach net zero in 2050 doesn't actually reach anywhere near that."

Some researchers say the model is overly optimistic. (AP: Charlie Riedel)


Mr Baxter is concerned by the prioritising of technologies the government previously announced it would be supporting as part of its road map.

"Right throughout is just assuming really heroic performance from all of those pet technologies the federal government has already announced."

"It doesn't really in any way test any of those assumptions."

Rod Campbell, Research Director at progressive think tank The Australia Institute, shares Mr Baxter's concerns.

"The modelling of the plan doesn't actually reduce our emissions to net zero despite what's written on the box," he said.

The plan for net zero
Mr Campbell said the model is overly optimistic about the contributions of the private sector, particularly when it comes to hydrogen.

"They've invented a $50 billion hydrogen industry that currently doesn't exist, may never exist, but in the modelling, it's just been inserted in there as a new industry."

And he thinks it overlooks a key factor in Australia's tackling of climate change.

"None of the economic benefits in this model are what we gain from avoiding catastrophic climate change."

"I think most farmers, tourism businesses or other humans in Australia would argue that we should be acting on climate change to avoid it and reduce the costs or just damage of what's going on around us."

"This huge primary motivation to act on climate change is ignored in this modelling."

In a media release from Friday afternoon Energy Minister Angus Taylor said the government has a credible pathway to net zero.

"The modelling shows that a clear focus on driving down technology costs will enable Australia to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 without putting industries, regions or jobs at risk."

Industry representatives welcome modelling

Industry reps say the modelling presents just one potential pathway forward. (AP: Charlie Riedel, file)

While the document has had a frosty reception in some quarters, industry representatives have welcomed its release.

Sarah McNamara, chief executive of the Australian Energy Council which represents 20 major power and gas companies, said the modelling was a move in the right direction.

"We see this modelling at a higher level as being a positive piece of work in that it supports the federal government's commitment to net zero by 2050," she said.

"What is encouraging is that it anticipates some big changes in our economy as we move through to 2050 and a lower emissions future, many of which are going to be positive changes in jobs as well as for the climate."

Ms McNamara said there's still a lot of factors in play when it comes to how Australia will meet our net zero target.

"We're taking it as an early indicator of the government's commitment to meeting this goal."

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"We don't yet know how strongly technologies are going to perform over time if they are not yet proven technologies."

"Hydrogen is a really exciting emerging technology."

Innes Willox, head of the Australian Industry Group, says the modelling presents just one potential pathway forward.

"We've always all said that the journey to net zero by 2050 is not going to be straightforward, easy or linear, and there will be a lot of challenges as well as opportunities on the way."

"The modelling is just one potential story of what could happen."

"There are some big assumptions here, and that's why underpinning all of this is going to have to be a lot of work done and a lot of things are going to have to go right."

"The thing to keep in mind here is that there's no expectation this is going to happen overnight."

"This is almost a 30-year journey that we're going to be on, so a lot is going to happen between now and then, particularly in the realm of technology."

Can Australia get to net zero?

 Links

(AU SBS) 'Morrison, Get Out Of The Way': Bushfire Victims' Fury Over Australia's Climate Change Moves

SBS - David Aidone

Bushfire victims are calling on the government to act urgently on climate change and have shared their harrowing stories.

Fiona Lee lost her home during the 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfire season. Source: Supplied

Jann Gilbert lost everything when her house was destroyed in the Black Summer bushfires, and fears she and other bush dwellers will again experience infernos of equal intensity if Australia does not take urgent action to reduce carbon emissions.

She has one frank message for Prime Minister Scott Morrison — who has made a pledge of net zero by 2050 backed by a controversial plan, and has resisted calls to make deeper cuts to emissions by 2030 — if his government does not act swiftly.

"If he's not prepared to do something... I want him to get out of the way and let someone else do the job," Ms Gilbert said.

Source: Supplied

After a struggle between the Liberal Party and its coalition partner The Nationals over the net zero target, Mr Morrison formally confirmed at the COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow this month that Australia would commit to this goal. But he has attracted criticism for not committing to lifting the nation's short-term target.

Australian bushfire victims also want more to be done.

Bushfire survivors remember Black Summer

'I'm furious at the way the climate crisis has been dealt with'

Bushfires aren't unusual in Australia, but climate change is thought to be making them worse.

The Black Summer bushfire season which ravaged parts of the eastern coast in 2019-2020 is often cited as an example of how a natural part of the Australian environment is worsening as the earth warms, and have been labelled as a "wake up call" to rapidly reduce emissions by some researchers.

It was a terrifying event that Ms Gilbert experienced first-hand.

Source: Supplied

The marine biologist moved to Mallacoota, a coastal town in Victoria's East Gippsland region, after buying a property there toward the end of 2018. Twelve months and $50,000 later, it was fully renovated.

The work was completed on 20 December, 2019. Fast forward 11 days and her home "was rubble'.

Ms Gilbert remembers thinking her home would be safe as she evacuated to the Mallacoota Wharf, where many others fled, as the out-of-control fire approached.

"It probably wouldn't have gone if the neighbour's gas bottles had not exploded," she said. "It was actually fate that I wasn't there because that where the hose I would have been using (to fight the fire) is, and that's exactly where the gas bottles came through."

Source: Supplied

"It burnt so hot that it melted all of the windows on the northern and southern side of the house because it had blown in from the eastern side," she said.

"And you could see that because all of the glass along the eastern side was smashed, but on the northern and southern windows, the glass was melted from the inside out."

The disaster means a "whole part of her life is now gone."

"[I have] no family photos, nothing from my parents... not one thing was left," she said.

But that wasn't the hardest thing for her — it was the environmental destruction that broke her heart.

"For the first two weeks after the fires all you heard was shotguns being fired, and vets were euthanising injured animals," she said.

She added: "And that's what I can't forgive the government for. What they don't seem to understand is that humans, like all the rest of the other animals on this planet, rely upon this planet for its resources.

"We were the last to arrive in evolutionary terms, we've done the most damage, and we are on the slippery slope to extinction."

Source: Royal Australian Navy

After the fire, Ms Gilbert was first living in her caravan which survived the blaze and then secured a short-term rental.

She finally obtained a modular unit through a Victorian Government initiative which was installed on a block of land she leased from a friend.

She "loves" Mallacoota and had no hesitation in deciding to rebuild and her new home will have a full fire-supression system. But she fears bushfires will continue to cause large-scale damage if climate change is not curbed.

"The thing that bothers me is that... I have no doubt that another catastrophic fire given where we're at with climate change," she said. "I have no doubt there'll be another catastrophic fire within the next four years. And it may not be Mallacoota, but it will be somewhere."

Source: AAP

With Australia's climate having already warmed by an average of 1.4C since 1910, she said: "Can you imagine what 2 degrees is going to look like?"

"I'm just furious at the way that this whole environment climate crisis has been dealt with by both sides of government," she said.

'I want the government to take climate change seriously'

Source: Supplied

Fiona Lee has a similarly harrowing story. Ms Lee, her partner and their young daughter had been living at their home — which had been built over a long period of time and where they had stayed on-and-off — just outside the town of Bobin in the New South Wales Mid North Coast for full-time for two years.

They were preparing to go camping for the weekend on 8 November, 2019, but instead enacted their bushfire survival plan as they saw "smoke cover the sun and burnt leaves dropping [their] yard".

A few hours later, their house had burnt down.

Fiona Lee lost her home near Bobin on the the Mid North Coast in NSW during the 2019-2020 Black Summer bushfire season. Source: Supplied

"The experience of walking back to the house for the first time the next day was so eerie," Ms Lee said. "The bush was dead and quiet, it was like being in a cemetery.

"Everything was totally destroyed. Parts of the car were dripping down the hill and all the glass in the house had melted and everything had folded in on itself. There was nothing left."

Ms Lee said there was "nothing left" when she returned to her property following the fire. Source: Supplied

The next day, the family moved into Ms Lee's mother's single-bedroom home where they stayed for "a long time" before they eventually secured a rental in Newcastle.

"This is where we currently are. We don't have plans to rebuild," she said.

Ms Lee said she has no plans to rebuild her home, which was just outside Bobin on the New South Wales Mid North Coast.

The thought of returning to the bush to live is "difficult", especially if carbon emissions are not reduced "urgently and immediately", she said.

She said she would like the federal government to take "take climate change seriously."

"At COP26, we've seen world leaders stepping up to the climate change challenge and the prime minister barely made it there with a distant net zero target, and not any intentions to cut emissions significantly by 2030," she said.

She believes Australia is "one of the few countries that's still seen as part of the problem and not part of the solution to address climate change."

"I think that the government is full of promises but doesn't actually have any intention of reducing emissions," she said. "I want to see no new investment in coal, oil, and gas projects because we need to address climate change now."

Perfect storm increasing bushfire risk

In 2016, Australia was among many countries to sign the Paris Agreement.

The Agreement's goal is to keep average global temperatures to well below 2C and preferably 1.5C through countries reducing their emissions as soon as possible and ultimately reaching net zero by 2050.

To achieve net zero, the amount of greenhouse gases being produced must not exceed the amount being taken out of the atmosphere.

Mr Morrison has said the mid-century target will be achieved through 'technology not taxes', which some have labelled as an ineffective approach.

The plan, released in late October, prioritises investment in clean hydrogen, energy storage, low emissions steel and aluminium, and carbon capture and storage which the federal government has been warned not to rely on.

Source: Pool Getty Images Europe

Many scientists believe deeper emissions cuts need to be made by the end of this century to effectively limit global warming.

Indeed, Australian climate scientists recently warned that half of the emissions cuts needed to reach net zero by 2050 would need to be made by 2030 to keep global warming below 2C.

Mr Morrison has resisted committing to life Australia's 2030 emissions reduction target of 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030, though the government says projections show they could be lowered by 35 per cent by the end of this decade.

Chair of the University of Melbourne's School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, Professor Rodney Keenan, said there is a link between climate change and extreme weather events such as bushfires.

"We've seen an increase in average global temperatures and that's leading to temperature extremes in southern Australia which is the most bushfire-prone area," Professor Keenan said.

"We're also seeing a drying trend with a strong decrease in rainfall, particularly in southwestern Australia, but also in southeastern Australia in Victoria and southern New South Wales.

"So the combination of those things is increasing bushfire risk."

What could be done to reduce emissions faster

Professor Keenan said it would have been "quite straightforward" for Mr Morrison to commit to an emissions reduction target of 35 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030 at COP26 because the states all have more ambitious targets.

The New South Wales, South Australian and ACT governments recently announced a "historic" agreement to work together to reach net zero emissions. The Western Australian government also signed on to the forum and said it was "necessary" in "the absence of real leadership from the federal government".

Professor Keenan said the federal government "needs to be making clear policy commitments to meet its [emissions reduction] objectives."

"The expectation that the technology will develop as a matter of course and that it will then be adopted is a very hopeful one; that the market will essentially solve this with a bit of input from the government on the technology development side," he said.

"I think it's clear that in order to drive the adoption and deployment of this technology, there needs to be clear price signals and other policy measures."

A "national consensus" on how to address the climate challenge was also necessary.

"We've argued in a recent article that it might be time for a national climate accord where the prime minister convenes the different sectors, the states and the different community groups, Indigenous communities and others to come together and talk through difficult tradeoffs and challenge."

Australia was not among a large cohort of countries to sign a pledge to transition away from coal — one of the most polluting fossil fuels — at COP 26. The nation also did not sign a pledge to reduce methane emissions.

Founder of Emergency Leaders for Climate Action and former commissioner of Fire & Rescue NSW, Greg Mullins, said that was a disappointing decision that put the nation's future prosperity at risk because coal would become more difficult to sell as other countries turned their backs on it.

Mr Mullins is also concerned by the federal government's technology-driven approach to emissions reduction. He believes a price on carbon would be more effective.

He said the money being invested in carbon capture and storage should instead go toward "subsidies for people to put solar panels on their roofs and get batteries", and to build wind turbines.

More trees, which absorb carbon dioxide, should also be planted, he said.

"I think this technology push is interesting but basically futile. And it's putting it off for someone to do the heavy lifting when it inevitably fails," he said.

In response to questions from SBS News, a spokesperson for Energy and Emissions Reduction Minister Angus Taylor said "Australia’s emissions reduction story has been one of consistent achievement – our emissions are now more than 20 per cent below 2005 levels".

"We have reduced emissions faster than any other major commodity exporting nation in the world, and faster than the OECD average, Canada, Japan, NZ and the US," the spokesperson said.

Australia’s 'long-term emissions reduction plan' "sets out a credible pathway to net zero by 2050, while preserving our existing industries, including our important export-oriented agriculture, resources and energy industries", the spokesperson said.

"Australia has already reduced methane emissions faster than any other major methane emitter, including the US, except for the EU and Canada."

SBS News contacted Labor's Climate and Energy spokesman Chris Bowen for comment.

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13/11/2021

(AU Bloomberg) Australia’s Net-Zero Plan Will Only Cut Emissions By A Third

Bloomberg Green - 

Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg

Australia’s bid to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 will only cut the amount of greenhouse gases being produced in the fossil-fuel dependent nation by a third compared with having no plan at all, according to modeling released by the government.

The nation will still be emitting 215 million tons of emissions by 2050 under its new plan, compared with 316 million tons without it, a table in the document released Friday shows. 

Still, the modeling shows offsets will only be responsible for reducing net-zero emissions by 94 million tons by 2050. The government expects to close the gap to net-zero with technological advancements emerging over the next three decades, though the report noted that the analysis isn’t a precise prediction of economic or technology trends.

About 70% of the planned emission reductions under the plan, announced by Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s conservative government last month, is expected to come from the “technology investment roadmap,” “global technology trends” or “further technology breakthroughs.”

Emissions Target
Australia's plan to zero out greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 relies heavily on technology
Source: Australian government





The release is unlikely to ease criticism of Morrison’s policies, with Australia under pressure during the COP26 summit to enact stronger short-term action to combat climate change. The country, one of the world’s top suppliers of fossil fuels, will also continue to rely heavily on projects designed to offset planet-warming pollution.

Morrison, whose government relies on support from voters in communities with strong resources industries including coal-mining, is refusing to impose taxes on polluters, saying strict government intervention on climate change would add pressure on living costs and threaten businesses.

“Climate change will ultimately be solved by ‘can do’ capitalism, not ‘don’t do’ governments seeking to control people’s lives and tell them what to do, with interventionist regulation and taxes that just force up your cost of living and force businesses to close,” Morrison said Wednesday in Melbourne

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