What Gas is That? Get to Know Your Climate Pollutants - Gregory Andrews

Lyrebird Dreaming - Gregory Andrews

There’s a lot of confusion about greenhouse gases - what they are, where they come from, and how their impacts differ. CO₂-equivalent is a term that also gets thrown around n this space. It might be handy for accounting, but can blur our understanding of impacts and timescales for damage.

That's why I've written this guide. It's my plain-English attempt to help you understand each polluting culprit. And to understand the right fixes.

How to read the guide

• Punch = how strongly a gas traps heat compared with CO₂.

• Stay = how long the gas lingers (atmospheric lifetime).

Some greenhouse gasses are common giants, some are exotic heavyweights, and some quiet stayers. One isn’t even a gas at all! Let's break them down.

The Common Giant - CO₂

Punch: low (1 by definition)

Stay: long - it can persist for centuries to millennia.

Source: burning fossil fuels; making cement; deforestation and land-clearing.

Why care? CO₂ is cumulative. Like water in a bathtub, the level keeps rising while the tap's on. Every tonne avoided is warming we don't create.

The fix: electrify everything, stop new coal and gas, improve energy efficiency, protect and restore Country.

The Sprinter - Methane (CH₄)

Punch: high (30 to 80 times as powerful as CO₂)

Stay: short - about 12 years.

Source: leaks and venting from gas and coal; burping and farting from cattle and sheep; leaks from landfill and wastewater, prawn farms and piggeries.

Why care? Methane hits hard and fades fast. Cutting it now can cool the near term while we decarbonise CO₂ over the longer term.

The fix: plugging leaks; stopping gas venting and flaring; capturing landfill gas; composting; promoting lower-methane diets for humans and farm animals.

The Quiet Stayer - Nitrous Oxide (N₂O)

Punch: very high (over 300 times as powerful as CO₂)

Stay: long - about 120 years.

Source: nitrogen fertilisers and soils; manure; industry.

Why care? It’s the sleeper. Smaller volumes than CO₂ or CH₄, but bigger punch and longer stay.

The fix : precision nitrogen use (right rate, time, place); growing legumes and cover crops; improving manure management.

Exotic Heavyweights - F-gases (HFCs, SF₆, NF₃, PFCs)

Punch: extreme (hundreds to tens of thousands of times CO₂)

Stay: from decades to millennia.

Source: refrigeration, air con and heat pumps; high-voltage switchgear; semiconductors; some aerosols.

Why care? Tiny volumes result in outsized warming. Leakage really matters.

The fix: continue the Kigali phase-down; accelerate the shift to natural refrigerants (CO₂, ammonia, hydrocarbons); enforce strict leak detection, end-of-life capture and recycling.

Non-Gas Players - Water Vapour, Aerosols and Contrails

Water vapour: Warmer air holds more moisture, which amplifies warming and extreme weather. If CO₂ and methane go down, water vapour follows.

Aerosol pollution: Many polluting aerosols have been cooling the planet by reflecting sunlight. Cleaning the air (rightly) removes this masking effect, which is one reason we need to cut methane and the exotic heavyweights quickly while we decarbonise CO₂.

Contrails: Jet-made ice clouds formed in cold, humid air and covering the sky in thin lines. They almost double the direct CO₂ impacts of flying.

In the end, this isn’t a chemistry lesson. 

Knowing what gas is what can help turn the fog of terms and numbers into practical choices. 

We need to cut the fast heaters like methane, F-gases and contrails. 

We must phase out fossil CO₂ for good. 

And we need to steadily shrink nitrous oxide with smarter farming. 

Our decisions should reflect the different tempos of each pollutant. 

If we tackle each culprit according to its nature, we can buy relief now and safety for our future.

Links 

• Air pollution – Greenhouse Gases, Climate Change, Emissions - Encyclopaedia Britannica 
• Greenhouse gases emissions and global climate change: Examining the influence of CO2, CH4, and N2O - ScienceDirect 
• Exploring the relationship between climate change, air pollutants and human health: Impacts, adaptation, and mitigation strategies - ScienceDirect 
• Air Pollution and Climate Change – The Lancet Planetary Health 
• Cutting Greenhouse Gases Will Reduce Number of Deaths from Poor Air Quality - University of Leeds / Earth’s Future 
• Air pollution cools climate more than expected making cutting carbon emissions more urgent - University of Oxford Commentary 
• IPCC Sixth Assessment Report - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Q&A: What will be the safest places to live in Australia in 2050 as the climate changes? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

There are no risk free places, only safer places by 2050, and risks vary by hazard and adaptation capacity [1]. Cooler elevated towns away from floodplains and the immediate coast are generally safer for heat, fire, and sea level [2][3]. South and east Australia face hotter days and drier cool seasons, which lifts bushfire danger in many regions [2]. Insurance costs and availability are already signalling high risk areas, especially for floods and cyclones [4][5]. Use official tools for local checks, including flood studies, heatwave guidance, and sea level projections [6][7][8].

By 2050 safer means cooler, higher, and drier underfoot, not risk free

Australians are asking a practical question as the climate warms.

Where will be the safest places to live in 2050.

There is no single answer that fits everyone, yet the science points to clear criteria that improve your odds.

What the climate science says about 2050

Australia has already warmed by about one and a half degrees, which has increased extreme heat, fire weather and marine heatwaves, and these trends will continue through mid century ^[2][1].

Sea level rise of roughly 20 to 25 centimetres above 2000 levels by 2050 is likely under mainstream scenarios, with regional variation around our coasts ^[8][3].

Cool season drying is projected for many parts of southern and eastern Australia, which can increase bushfire danger and water stress ^[2].

Define safer before you choose places

Safer by 2050 means lower exposure to compounding hazards, including extreme heat, bushfire, riverine and flash floods, coastal inundation, drought, and destructive winds or cyclones ^[1].

It also means access to adaptation, such as reliable water supply, effective planning, resilient buildings, and affordable insurance ^[4].

Think criteria first, then shortlist locations that match those criteria.

Five evidence based criteria for safer Australian locations

Choose elevation, ideally twenty metres or more above sea level and outside mapped floodplains to reduce coastal and riverine flood risk ^[6][8].

Prefer cooler climates or highland towns where the number of very hot days is lower, which reduces health risk and building strain during heatwaves ^[7][9].

Favour landscapes with mixed land use and buffers rather than dense forest at the urban edge, and check local bushfire attack level ratings and fuel maps ^[2].

Seek towns with upgraded flood mitigation, resilient building standards, and strong emergency services, which materially lower residual risk and insurance costs ^[4][5].

Avoid cyclone exposed coasts in the tropics, or ensure homes meet the highest wind code standards if you must live there ^[10].

Shortlist, with reasons rather than rankings

Cooler elevated inland cities in the south east, such as Ballarat and Orange, combine milder summers with distance from the immediate coast and opportunities to avoid floodplains, which reduces heat and coastal risks, although local bushfire planning is still essential ^[2].

Armidale on the Northern Tablelands sits above one thousand metres, which moderates heat, while elevation helps with flood exposure, though grassfire risk and water security must be considered street by street ^[2].

Canberra’s elevation and inland location reduce coastal hazards, and extensive planning and emergency capability are strengths, yet extreme heat and bushfire smoke remain real risks that vary by suburb and interface with the bush ^[2].

Parts of Tasmania offer cooler conditions and distance from cyclones, which lowers heat stress, but bushfire risk is rising and low lying coastal suburbs face sea level and storm surge issues, so choose elevated suburbs with multiple evacuation routes ^[2][8].

South east South Australia around Mount Gambier combines cooler temperatures and elevation above the coast, while still requiring careful flood and bushfire due diligence at the block scale ^[2].

In Western Australia, higher inland towns that are not in the drying forest interface can reduce combined heat, fire, and coastal risks, yet the state’s south west drying trend means water security and fire planning remain decisive at the property level ^[2].

Places that demand extra caution

Low lying coastal strips on the east and north coasts face sea level rise, coastal erosion, storm tide and compound flooding risks that will increase through 2050, which pushes up insurance costs and may limit coverage in some suburbs ^[8][5].

Floodplains and urban creek catchments in major capitals can experience dangerous flash floods, even far from the sea, and require careful street by street checks against local flood studies and the national flood portal ^[6].

Tropical cyclone regions of northern Australia carry wind and water risks that can be managed with strict building codes and siting, yet these hazards will continue to generate costly losses across the housing stock to mid century ^[10].

Insurance is an early warning signal

Insurance affordability stress has risen and now affects a larger share of households, especially in flood and cyclone exposed regions, which is a signal that underlying risk is high today and likely higher by 2050 without adaptation ^[4].

Independent modelling finds millions of properties at moderate or high climate risk over coming decades, and interactive maps now show electorate level exposure to 2050 under different emissions scenarios, which is a useful screening tool before you buy ^[5].

Strong building codes and resilient retrofits can materially cut losses each year by billions when widely adopted, which improves liveability and insurability even in higher risk regions ^[4].

How to choose a safer home, step by step

Screen regions with the State of the Climate and IPCC factsheets to understand broad trends for heat, rainfall, fire weather, and sea level to 2050 ^[2][1].

Use the Australian Flood Risk Information Portal and your council flood studies to exclude known floodplains and overland flow paths, and ask for historical flood marks where available ^[6].

Check the Bureau’s Heatwave Service and Australian Climate Service hazard pages to understand local heatwave frequency and community guidance, and plan for passive cooling and shade ^[7][9].

Consult sea level projection tools to ensure your suburb and evacuation routes are well above likely 2050 sea levels and storm tide allowances, and prefer elevations above twenty metres where practical ^[8].

Ask for the Bushfire Attack Level for the property and review vegetation buffers, roof design, ember protection, and water storage for firefighting where authorities allow it ^[2].

A pragmatic shortlist approach for 2050

Start with cooler elevated inland towns within a few hours of capitals for services and jobs, for example Ballarat, Bendigo, Orange, Armidale and selected suburbs of Canberra that are away from the forest edge, while checking local flood and fire maps before any decision ^[2][6].

Add Tasmania to the shortlist for climate moderated conditions, selecting elevated blocks in cities and towns that are clear of bushfire interface and well above the tidal zone, and confirm levees and evacuation plans where relevant ^[2][8].

Consider south east South Australia and parts of regional Victoria that meet the elevation and flood exclusion tests, and prefer communities investing in resilient infrastructure and risk informed planning ^[4][6].

Bottom line

By 2050 Australia will be hotter, with more intense heatwaves, heightened fire weather in many regions, and higher seas.

Safest does not mean safe, it means stacking the odds in your favour by choosing cooler climates, meaningful elevation, and well planned towns with resilient housing and services.

Use the national science as your map, then verify every suburb and every block against local hazard data before you move.

References

1. IPCC, AR6 WGI Regional Fact Sheet, Australasia, summary of observed and projected changes. ipcc.ch
2. CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology, State of the Climate 2024, observed changes and projections for Australia. bom.gov.au and csiro.au
3. CSIRO, Future climate and sea level rise context for Australia, regional variation notes. csiro.au
4. Insurance Council of Australia, strengthening codes and resilience can save billions, with costs doubling by 2050 without action. insurancecouncil.com.au and supporting NSW Parliament QON. parliament.nsw.gov.au
5. Climate Council and Climate Valuation, At Our Front Door report and Climate Risk Map showing 2025 to 2050 electorate level risk. climatecouncil.org.au and map. riskmap.climatecouncil.au
6. Geoscience Australia, Australian Flood Risk Information Portal for flood studies and data access. ga.gov.au
7. Bureau of Meteorology, Heatwave Service and Knowledge Centre. bom.gov.au
8. NASA Sea Level Projection Tool, global and local IPCC AR6 sea level projections for 2050. sealevel.nasa.gov
9. Australian Climate Service, heatwaves hazard page and guidance. acs.gov.au
10. Bureau of Meteorology Research Report 96 to APRA on acute hazards under a 2050 warming scenario, including cyclone losses and wind risks. bom.gov.au

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Western Australia suffers worst coral bleaching on record as marine heatwave devastates reefs - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Key Points

Western Australia has recorded its worst coral bleaching on record across about 1,500 kilometres of reef[1] Ningaloo, Rowley Shoals, Scott Reef and Ashmore Reef reported severe bleaching and high mortality, with sites near 90 per cent loss[1][2] The heatwave began around August 2024 and persisted into May 2025, the longest and most intense event observed in WA[2] Australia’s seas were the hottest on record in 2024, compounding coral heat stress[3] The crisis coincides with the fourth, and largest, global coral bleaching event ever recorded, affecting about 84 per cent of reefs worldwide[4]

What has happened, and where

Western Australia has experienced an unprecedented marine heatwave that drove the most widespread bleaching event ever recorded in the state.

Scientists report bleaching and mortality across roughly 1,500 kilometres of coral reef habitat, from Ashmore and Scott Reef through the Rowley Shoals and down to Ningaloo.

The Australian Institute of Marine Science confirms extreme heat stress and extensive coral death, with some sites recording mortality rates near 90 per cent^[1].

The WA Coral Bleaching Group notes that Degree Heating Weeks, a measure of cumulative thermal stress, exceeded previously observed levels at multiple locations, including the Rowley Shoals^[2].

Timing and intensity

The marine heatwave developed around August 2024 and persisted into May 2025 along the WA coast.

Researchers characterise it as the longest, largest and most intense heatwave on record for Western Australia, a scale that left little refuge for shallow or offshore reef systems^[1][2].

Field teams and aerial surveys documented bleaching from the inshore Kimberley and Pilbara to offshore oceanic reefs, and at iconic Ningaloo sites such as Turquoise Bay and Coral Bay^[5][6].

Why it is so severe this time

Sea surface temperatures around Australia in 2024 were the hottest on record, which primed reefs for bleaching when heat persisted into summer.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s annual statement shows Australian regional seas were about 0.89 degrees above the long-term average in 2024, a significant deviation that increases bleaching risk^[3][7].

This local record heat overlays a global fourth mass coral bleaching event, confirmed by NOAA, in which about 84 per cent of the world’s reef area has experienced bleaching-level heat stress since January 2023^[4].

Ningaloo, Rowley Shoals and other hotspots

Ningaloo, a World Heritage–listed fringing reef, had largely escaped past global bleaching episodes, but has now suffered widespread bleaching and coral death.

New reporting and footage indicate that shallow lagoon and back-reef habitats sustained severe damage, with bleaching documented at Bundegi, Tantabiddi and Coral Bay^[6].

At the Rowley Shoals and other offshore reefs, scientists observed extreme stress, with sections showing very little live coral remaining after the peak heat passed^[2].

Ecological and economic stakes

Coral reefs occupy less than one per cent of the ocean floor, yet support around a quarter of marine species, including fisheries that underpin regional livelihoods.

Bleaching does not always kill corals immediately, but it weakens them, slows growth and increases disease risk, which can cascade through reef food webs.

Tourism and coastal protection values at Ningaloo and other WA reefs are significant, and repeated heatwaves shorten recovery windows between disturbances^[4][8].

Signals from monitoring and media

AIMS and partner agencies synthesised aerial and in-water observations to confirm statewide bleaching, using satellite heat-stress metrics and site surveys.

National broadcasters and independent outlets have reported on the scale and severity, highlighting that this is the worst bleaching on record for Western Australia.

Coverage emphasises the unusual breadth of the event and the high mortality at some sites, reinforcing the scientific assessments^[1][5][9].

What comes next, and what can be done

Short-term management focuses on protecting remaining healthy patches, limiting local stressors such as pollution and overfishing, and supporting community science to track recovery.

Some experimental interventions, including assisted evolution and cloud brightening, are being explored, but these cannot substitute for emissions reductions at scale.

Scientists consistently conclude that stabilising global temperatures by rapidly cutting greenhouse gas emissions is the only viable path to preserve functioning coral reef ecosystems in Western Australia and globally^[2][4].

How to follow updates

Check AIMS and the WA Coral Bleaching Group for technical updates on heat stress and survey results as spring approaches.

Follow NOAA Coral Reef Watch for near-real-time Degree Heating Week maps and seasonal outlooks that indicate when and where thermal stress may intensify.

Local conservation groups provide site-level reports and imagery that can help communities understand conditions at familiar beaches and reef lagoons^[1][4][6].

References

1. Australian Institute of Marine Science, “Worst bleaching event on record for WA coral reefs following long lasting and widespread marine heatwave.” aims.gov.au
2. The Guardian, “WA’s longest and most intense marine heatwave killed coral across 1,500km stretch.” 12 August 2025. theguardian.com
3. UNSW Newsroom summary of Bureau of Meteorology Annual Climate Statement 2024, “Australia’s ocean surface was the hottest on record in 2024.” 6 February 2025. unsw.edu.au
4. NOAA Coral Reef Watch, “Current Global Bleaching: Status Update.” Updated 10 August 2025. coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
5. International Coral Reef Initiative, “2024, 2025 Western Australia Bleaching Summary.” 12 August 2025. icriforum.org
6. Australian Marine Conservation Society, “Ningaloo Reef suffers widespread coral bleaching, new footage shows.” 17 February 2025. marineconservation.org.au
7. 9News, “Australia recorded hottest ocean surface temperatures on record in 2024, BOM says.” 6 February 2025. 9news.com.au
8. The Guardian, “How a marine heatwave is threatening Australia’s spectacular coral reefs.” 14 August 2025. theguardian.com
9. ABC News, “Western Australia’s ‘catastrophic’ bleaching event leaves parts of the Ningaloo Reef devastated.” 12 August 2025. abc.net.au

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Australia confronts global climate emergency as 2024 shatters records for heat, seas and ice loss - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

State of the Climate Report 2024
Australia faces escalating climate shocks
as global warming surges to unprecedented levels

Key points

2024 was the hottest year on record globally [1] Australia saw its hottest winter and severe marine heatwaves [2] Global sea levels reached a new high for the 13th year running [3] Antarctic sea ice hit record lows impacting Southern Ocean ecosystems [4] Climate extremes are accelerating faster than scientific projections [5]

2024 confirmed as hottest year ever recorded

Scientists have confirmed that 2024 was the hottest year globally since records began in the mid-19th century ^[1].

Average global surface temperatures were 1.56 degrees above the 1850–1900 baseline, surpassing the previous record set in 2023.

This relentless warming trend is driven primarily by greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels.

Australia’s climate scientists warn that the scale of these records is not a temporary spike but evidence of accelerating planetary heating.

Australia’s record-breaking year of extremes

For Australians, 2024 brought an alarming succession of climate extremes ^[2].

The nation experienced its hottest winter on record, with national average temperatures more than two degrees above the long-term norm.

Marine heatwaves scorched the Great Barrier Reef, triggering mass coral bleaching across vast areas of the reef system.

Western Sydney endured prolonged extreme heat days, intensifying health risks for vulnerable communities.

These impacts reflect both the global warming trend and local vulnerabilities linked to Australia’s unique geography.

Rising seas threaten coastlines

Global mean sea levels rose for the thirteenth consecutive year in 2024, reaching the highest annual average ever recorded ^[3].

Australia is especially exposed to sea level rise, with low-lying coastal communities and critical infrastructure at risk.

Scientists note that sea level rise is not uniform, and regions around the Pacific including parts of northern Australia are experiencing higher than average increases.

Saltwater intrusion is already affecting agriculture in Queensland and Northern Territory coastal zones.

Collapse of Antarctic sea ice

Antarctic sea ice extent hit record lows in 2024, continuing a dramatic decline that began in 2016 ^[4].

The reduction of ice cover in the Southern Ocean has global consequences, disrupting ecosystems and weakening one of Earth’s major climate regulators.

For Australia, diminished Antarctic sea ice alters ocean currents and weather patterns, increasing risks of drought and marine ecosystem disruption.

Scientists warn that these shifts may trigger cascading effects that undermine food security and fisheries.

Extreme events accelerate beyond forecasts

The 2024 State of the Climate report emphasises that extremes are intensifying more quickly than many climate models predicted ^[5].

Australia saw widespread bushfires in New South Wales and Queensland following heatwaves and prolonged dry conditions.

At the same time, northern regions were battered by record-breaking rainfall events and floods, compounding disaster recovery challenges.

Insurance claims across the country have surged, putting pressure on households and governments alike.

Economic and political implications for Australia

The mounting evidence of climate disruption carries major consequences for Australia’s economy and politics.

Productivity losses from extreme heat are growing, particularly in outdoor industries such as construction and agriculture.

Insurance affordability is eroding as climate-driven disasters multiply.

Australia faces international pressure to accelerate emissions reduction, with trading partners linking climate ambition to economic cooperation.

Federal and state governments remain divided on the pace of transition, reflecting broader political fault lines.

Cultural and ecological consequences

Indigenous communities are among the most affected, as climate extremes disrupt cultural practices tied to land and sea.

Traditional fire management is being revisited as a tool for reducing bushfire risk, although hotter, drier conditions complicate implementation.

Ecologically, species decline is intensifying, with climate shifts pushing flora and fauna beyond their adaptive capacity.

From the bleaching of coral reefs to stress on eucalypt forests, ecosystems central to Australian identity face unprecedented challenges.

Looking forward

Scientists argue that the evidence in the 2024 report underscores the urgency of rapid emissions cuts.

Australia’s choices in the coming decade will determine its resilience to escalating risks.

Investment in renewable energy, adaptation planning, and ecological restoration are now seen as both environmental and economic imperatives.

Without decisive action, Australians face an increasingly unstable climate with growing social, economic, and cultural consequences.

References

1. State of the Climate 2024 – Global heat record confirmed
2. ABC News – Australia’s hottest winter and marine heatwaves
3. NOAA – Global sea levels continue to rise
4. The Guardian – Antarctic sea ice hits record low
5. CSIRO – Climate extremes outpace projections

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In Australia, what is the latest Treasury or RBA assessment of climate risks to GDP, inflation, and employment? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia faces alarming climate threats
with real economic damage already visible

Key points

Government’s National Climate Risk Assessment reveals “intense and scary” threats from climate change[1] Treasury quantifies direct economic cost of natural disasters to economy at ~$2.2 billion in H1 2025[2] RBA continues exploratory climate-risk work via scenario and stability analysis—no direct macro forecasts tied to climate[3]

Government’s National Climate Risk Assessment — A Stark Warning

The National Climate Risk Assessment, an as-yet unreleased government report, has been described by insiders as “intense and scary”.

It maps widespread risks across eight key systems including the economy, infrastructure, finance and health^[1]. 

The Assessment presents modelling of extreme scenarios, including mortality from heatwaves and flooding risks across suburbs. 

Threats extend from financial instability to power and transport system breakdowns.

Treasury separately estimates that natural disasters cost the economy approximately $2.2 billion in the first half of 2025. 

This reflects the compounded impact of events such as Cyclone Alfred and severe flooding in New South Wales, which disrupted spending and retail trade in that period^[2].

Reserve Bank of Australia — Climate Risks in Financial Stability Work

The RBA continues to integrate climate-related analysis into its financial stability mandate, not via GDP or inflation forecasts, but through exploratory and scenario-based assessments. 

The June 2023 RBA Bulletin emphasises that most climate-related impacts remain indirect and uneven across sectors, with limited direct system-wide effects so far identified, but warns of data gaps and evolving frameworks^[3].

In April 2024, the RBA published research assessing physical climate risk in residential mortgage-backed securities, finding that higher-risk loans are concentrated in regional lenders, and that such risks may still be underpriced in markets^[3]. 

This reflects broader efforts to identify financial vulnerabilities tied to climate exposures within the mortgage market.

What the Numbers Include: Time Frames and Focus

Treasury’s financial cost estimation covers the first half of 2025, capturing immediate impacts of climate-fuelled disasters on economic activity. 

This is not part of a projection, but a retrospective accounting of observed damage.

The National Climate Risk Assessment scope spans current through multi-decade risks; while jeopardy mappings appear qualitative and model-based, the second-pass quantitative analysis is to be publicly released soon as part of foundational climate policy documents^[1].

By contrast, the RBA’s climate work remains financial-system focused, drawing on scenario and vulnerability assessments, particularly for banks and collateral assets. 

It does not provide macroeconomic projections like GDP, inflation, or employment tied directly to climate risks.

Broader Context and Next Steps

This moment represents a critical shift: explicit, economy-wide climate risk assessment is emerging from policy shadows. 

The Treasury’s cost accounting underscores economic vulnerabilities in real time, while the National Risk Assessment offers a systemic, ahead-of-time perspective.

The RBA’s scenario and stress testing frameworks, though still purely exploratory, lay the groundwork for future integration of climate drivers into monetary and financial stability policy. 

A clearer picture of how climate risks translate into macroeconomic variables may emerge as these agencies refine their methods.

References

1. Risks of climate crisis to Australia’s economy and environment are ‘intense and scary’, unreleased government report says
2. Natural disasters cost Australia’s economy $2.2 bn in first half of 2025, new Treasury analysis shows
3. Climate Change and Financial Risk, RBA Bulletin June 2023
4. Assessing Physical Climate Risk in Repo-eligible Residential Mortgage-backed Securities, RBA Bulletin April 2024

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‘Dump it, or we’ll dump you’: secretive consultancy group sends Liberal MPs barrage of emails over net zero policy - The Guardian

The Guardian - Krishani Dhanji Josh Butler

Some MPs received more than 100 emails within 48 hours
from the same address criticising the party’s energy policy

Opposition leader Sussan Ley and the shadow minister for energy Dan Tehan, who is reviewing the Coalition’s energy policy. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP

Liberal MPs have been sent a barrage of emails demanding they drop net zero targets or “risk losing our support” by a group connected to conservative right-wing lobby group Advance.

The mass emails, seen by Guardian Australia, have been sent to multiple Liberals by Whitestone Strategic, a secretive political consultancy group, and come as the Coalition reviews its energy policy.

Coalition MPs began receiving the emails – which one described as looking as if they were sent by AI bots – on Monday night. Some MPs received more than 100 within 48 hours from the same address.

One of the emails reads: “A message to the Liberal Party and Nationals: Net Zero is causing irreversible damage to our nation. Our economic health is declining … immediate action is required. Dump Net Zero policies now, or we will stop supporting your agenda.”

Another reads: “Net Zero is a dangerous joke. It’s time to dump it, or we’ll dump you.”

The email sender appears to be Whitestone Strategic but the email address is listed as CiviClick – a US-based platform that describes itself as AI-powered grassroots advocacy software that allows users to “reach elected officials with powerful policy messages”.

A Guardian Australia investigation in October revealed Whitestone Strategic’s close ties to Advance, the rightwing advocacy group behind the main organisation promoting a no vote in the Indigenous voice referendum, Fair Australia.

A separate investigation also found Whitestone Strategic billed taxpayers almost $135,000 over two years for work providing media messaging for conservative politicians during the voice to parliament campaign. Whitestone Strategic’s work for Coalition members has extended beyond the voice campaign.

An email sent to Liberal MPs that appears to be sent from Whitestone Strategic.

None of the emails, sent since Monday, are addressed directly to the politician, or signed off by a member of the public. Many of the dozens of emails received by MPs contain the same message and some contain what appears to be coding left in unintentionally.

Advance announced on 8 August it would launch a campaign targeting “weakling” Liberals, by pressuring them to drop their support for net zero by 2050. On 15 August, it said its supporters had sent 19,897 emails to Coalition MPs and senators.

Several members who received the emails expressed frustration over the tactic.

One Liberal, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, said they received at least 50 emails in 24 hours, none directly addressed to them.

“The policy review process is important, we must take the time to do it right,” they said.

“We cannot be distracted by external groups with their own agendas.”

Another Liberal, who asked not to be named, derided the emails and said they looked as if they had been sent by “AI bots”, due to multiples of the same message being sent. This MP, who said they were previously supportive of Whitestone’s work, said “Why can’t Whitestone get this stuff right?”.

Liberal senator for South Australia Andrew McLachlan, a vocal supporter of net zero and climate action, confirmed he’d received dozens of emails from Whitestone Strategic over the last 48 hours.

He said maintaining emissions reduction targets is critical and said he would continue to advocate for the target.

“It is not ‘weakness’ to support targets to reduce pollution. You are not a ‘weakling’ to be committed to exploring every possible solution to respond to our changing climate,” he said.The Liberal party is reviewing its energy policies, led by the shadow energy minister, Dan Tehan.

 

The opposition leader, Sussan Ley, hasn’t committed to keeping net zero, but some vocal members of the Coalition – including Barnaby Joyce, Michael McCormack, Matt Canavan and Tony Pasin – have been publicly and privately lobbying against the target.

 

In response to questions from Guardian Australia, Advance said they wouldn’t comment on individual emails from supporters, but that “it is no secret that we are campaigning against net zero and have asked our supporters to contact MPs to voice their opposition”.

Links

• ‘Unlike any other kind of fear’: wildfires leave their mark across Spain   The Guardian
• Flash floods kill at least 159 people in Pakistan after huge cloudburst   The Guardian
• ‘Hellish’: heatwave brings hottest nights on record to the Middle East   The Guardian
• Arctic glaciers face ‘terminal’ decline as microbes accelerate ice melt   The Guardian
• The Guardian view on climate finance: crumbling under a second Trump presidency   The Guardian

What is Australia's emissions reduction target and how does it compare to international benchmarks? - Lethal Heating Editor BDA

Australia lags behind global climate ambition
as its 2030 target faces scrutiny

Key points

Australia’s 2030 target is a 43% reduction below 2005 levels [1] Global scientific advice calls for at least 50–55% cuts by 2030 [2] European Union and United States targets are stronger than Australia’s [3] Critics warn Australia risks lagging on credibility and trade [4]

Australia’s 2030 Emissions Reduction Target

Australia’s federal government has committed to reducing emissions by 43 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030^[1].

This target was legislated in 2022 after years of political gridlock over climate policy^[1].

Yet scientists and international observers say it falls short of what is needed to align with global climate goals^[2].

Government Framing of Australia’s Targets

The government’s 43 per cent reduction target by 2030 is benchmarked against a 2005 baseline^[1].

It is paired with a longer-term pledge to reach net zero by 2050, a goal now common among advanced economies^[1].

Officials describe the 2030 target as ambitious but achievable with stronger investment in clean energy and industry reforms^[1].

Scientific Benchmarks

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius requires emissions cuts of around 50 per cent globally by 2030^[2].

Australia’s 43 per cent target is therefore seen by many scientists as insufficient compared with the pace of reductions required^[2].

Some argue the target is closer to a two-degree trajectory, leaving Australia vulnerable to mounting climate risks^[2].

International Comparisons

The European Union has committed to reducing emissions by at least 55 per cent below 1990 levels by 2030^[3].

The United States target is a 50–52 per cent cut below 2005 levels by 2030^[3].

Compared with these benchmarks, Australia’s goal is weaker, though stronger than some major emitters such as China and India, whose pledges peak later^[3].

Criticism and Consequences

Critics warn that Australia’s comparatively modest target could harm its credibility in international negotiations^[4].

There are also trade risks, as key partners like the EU are moving towards carbon border tariffs on imports from countries with weaker climate policies^[4].

Analysts say that lifting ambition could protect Australia’s economic interests while also accelerating the transition to clean energy^[4].

References

[1] Australian Government – Climate Change Targets
[2] IPCC – Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC
[3] Climate Action Tracker – Country Comparisons
[4] The Guardian – Climate Risks to Australia’s Economy

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