'Stronger Commitment' Wanted On Paris Climate Change Pledge

Huffington Post - Sam McKeith

The Lowy Institute says most Australians want the government to take a tougher stance on climate change. STR via Getty Images

Most Australians want the federal government to push for larger cuts to greenhouse gas emissions at next week's UN Conference on Climate Change in Paris.
That's the major finding from a new Lowy Institute poll, which reveals 62 percent of Australians want the Turnbull government to take a stronger position to the talks than its current target of a 26-28 percent cut in emissions by 2030.
Indeed, just 36 percent of those polled want the government to stick to its current target, the poll found.
"The majority of adult Australians say the Government should be prepared to make stronger commitments on emissions reductions," the Lowy Institute said.
The think tank said the poll, which surveyed 1,000 Australians in October and November, also confirmed an upward trend in concern about climate change, with 52 percent of respondents now considering it a "serious and pressing problem".
Despite the rising concern, Australians are torn on how to deal with carbon emissions, the poll found, with a split between those favouring the government's direct action plan and those supporting the reintroduction of a carbon tax.
The poll follows somewhat of a turnaround from the coalition on the global meeting, with Turnbull confirmed to be attending the event.
The man he replaced as PM, Tony Abbott, was not tipped to attend the meeting after he scrapped the carbon tax, cut Australia's renewable energy target and critiqued wind farms.
Before Turnbull was installed as PM, it was thought Foreign Minister Julie Bishop was going to take Australia's seat at the UN meeting, which runs from November 30 to December 11.
With Turnbull at the helm, there has been a perceived shift in Australia's stance on tackling climate change, especially after he backed a Paris agreement to include a long-term goal.
Environment Minister Greg Hunt said on Wednesday he was confident a global agreement would be reached at Paris.
"In the end I'm optimistic there will be a real and genuine agreement in Paris," he told reporters in Canberra.
He said Australia was playing its part on carbon emissions on the world stage.
"Beyond 2020, our commitment to reduce emissions by 26 to 28 percent by 2030 is strong, it is credible, it is significant and Australia's target compares well with that of other countries in the period from 2005 to 2030," he said.
Australia is considered one of the world's worst greenhouse gas emitters per capita, according to the Climate Council.

1997 vs. 2015: Animation Compares El Niños Side-by-Side

Climate Central - Andrea Thompson

With this year’s El Niño shaping up to rival the strongest on record, comparisons to the last major El Niño, in 1997-1998, are inevitable. A new animation showing the development of each event side-by-side is the latest example, and provides a window into the similarities and differences between the two climate events.

Credit: NCAR

Those similarities and differences matter because they can affect how an El Niño’s typical impacts on global weather — from drought to deluges — shape up, the reason it receives such rapt attention.
On Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organization declared this El Nino a strong one, and some scientists have noted that sea surface temperatures in a key part of the eastern Pacific are higher than in previous events by this point of the year. Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Columbia University said in their August update that temperatures in that region could reach more than 3.5°F above normal when this event peaks in the winter, something only recorded three times in the 65 years of record-keeping, including the 1997-1998 event (as well as 1982-1983 and 1972-1973).
With the inevitable comparisons between this El Niño and the 1997-1998 event — remembered for the incredible rains and mudslides it brought to California (along with Chris Farley’s memorable Saturday Night Live sketch) — Matt Rehme at the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Visualization Lab, worked up an animation showing the progression of each event from January through August.
"I was a little shocked just how closely 2015 resembles 1997 visually," Rehme said in a statement.
But as any El Niño researcher will tell you, no two El Niño events are alike, and the impacts from this one aren’t guaranteed to be just like 1997-1998.
The most obvious difference between this year and that event, clearly visible in the animation, is the “blob” of warm water off the west coast of North America, a symptom of the relentless high pressure pattern that has kept the West hot and dry over much of the last few years and led to the deep drought in California.
Right now, it is unclear how this warm patch will interact with the typical El Niño impacts (which aren’t guaranteed to materialize). That warmth could mean that any storms that hit drop more rain instead of much-needed snow that could help replenish depleted reservoirs.

An aerial view of a mudslide along the Southern California Coast just north of Los Angeles, taken in April 1998. Credit: USGS

Another difference is that “in 1997, there was no ‘peek-a-boo’ with El Niño the winter before it really got going,” as there was this past winter, Michelle L’Heureux, a NOAA El Niño forecaster, said in an email. The early months of 1997 started off relatively cool in the eastern tropical Pacific, “so the fact we have this strong El Niño … following earlier tropical ocean warmth is unique,” she said.
Also, the warmth that has built up so far this year, while reaching impressive heights in part of the eastern Pacific, hasn’t reached the very far eastern Pacific right at the coast of South America yet.
“It's certainly warm, but not yet on par with 1997/98,” L’Heureux said, which affects predictions for El Niño impacts in Peru.
So while it’s interesting to compare this El Niño to other events, and doing so helps researchers learn the range of variation El Niño can exhibit, just how the impacts shape up this year are a matter of waiting to see what winter brings.

Links

• El Niño Could Rank Among Strongest on Record
• How This El Niño Is And Isn’t Like 1997
• El Niño in 90 Seconds

UN’s Ban Ki-Moon: Climate Change Carries No Passport

INQUIRER.net - Ban Ki-moon

UN leader Ban Ki-moon. AP FILE PHOTO

With just a few days left before the formal start of the 21st Conference of Parties (COP), United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Wednesday released a statement on his expectations for the highly-anticipated climate change talks.

Below is the full text of his statement:
For the nearly nine years that I have been Secretary-General, I have travelled the world to the front-lines of climate change, and I have spoken repeatedly with world leaders, business people and citizens about the need for an urgent global response
Why do I care so much about this issue?
First, like any grandfather, I want my grandchildren to enjoy the beauty and bounty of a healthy planet. And like any human being, it grieves me to see that floods, droughts and fires are getting worse, that island nations will disappear and uncounted species will become extinct.
As His Holiness Pope Francis and other faith leaders have reminded us, we have a moral responsibility to act in solidarity with the poor and most vulnerable who have done least to cause climate change and will suffer first and worst from its effects.
Second, as the head of the United Nations, I have prioritized climate change because no country can meet this challenge alone. Climate change carries no passport; emissions released anywhere contribute to the problem everywhere. It is a threat to lives and livelihoods everywhere. Economic stability and the security of nations are under threat. Only through the United Nations can we respond collectively to this quintessentially global issue.
The negotiation process has been slow and cumbersome. But we are seeing results. In response to the UN’s call, more than 166 countries, which collectively account for more than 90 per cent of emissions, have now submitted national climate plans with targets. If successfully implemented, these national plans bend the emissions curve down to a projected global temperature rise of approximately 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
This is significant progress. But it is still not enough. The challenge now is to move much further and faster to reduce global emissions so we can keep global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius. At the same time, we must support countries to adapt to the inevitable consequences that are already upon us.
The sooner we act, the greater the benefits for all: increased stability and security; stronger, more sustainable economic growth; enhanced resilience to shocks; cleaner air and water; improved health.
We will not get there overnight. The climate change conference in Paris is not the end point. It must mark the floor, not the ceiling of our ambition. It must be the turning point towards a low-emission, climate-resilient future.
Around the world, momentum is building. Cities, businesses and investors, faith leaders and citizens are acting to reduce emissions and build resilience. The responsibility now rests with Governments to conclude a meaningful, binding agreement in Paris that provides clear rules of the road for strengthening global ambition. For this, negotiators need clear guidance from the top.
I believe this is forthcoming. The leaders of the G20, who met earlier this month in Antalya, Turkey, showed strong commitment to climate action. And more than 120 Heads of State and Government have confirmed their participation in Paris, despite heightened security concerns in the wake of the terrorist attacks.
I see four essential elements for Paris to be a success: durability, flexibility, solidarity and credibility.
First, durability. Paris must provide a long-term vision consistent with a below 2 degrees trajectory, and send a clear signal to markets that the low-carbon transformation of the global economy is inevitable, beneficial and already under way.
Second, the agreement must provide flexibility so it does not need to be continually renegotiated. It must be able to accommodate changes in the global economy and strike a balance between the leadership role of developed countries and the increasing responsibilities of developing countries.
Third, the agreement must demonstrate solidarity, including through financing and technology transfer for developing countries. Developed countries must keep their pledge to provide $100 billion a year by 2020 for adaptation and mitigation alike.
Fourth, an agreement must demonstrate credibility in responding to rapidly escalating climate impacts. It must include regular five year cycles for governments to assess and strengthen their national climate plans in line with what science demands. Paris must also include transparent and robust mechanisms for measuring, monitoring and reporting progress.
The UN stands fully ready to support countries in implementing such an agreement.
A meaningful climate agreement in Paris will build a better today – and tomorrow. It will help us end poverty. Clean our air and protect our oceans. Improve public health. Create new jobs and catalyze green innovations. It will accelerate progress towards all of the Sustainable Development Goals. That is why I care so deeply about climate change.
My message to world leaders is clear: success in Paris depends on you. Now is the time for common sense, compromise and consensus. It is time to look beyond national horizons and to put the common interest first. The people of the world – and generations to come – count on you to have the vision and courage to seize this historic moment.

Link

• Pinas to Paris — INQUIRER.net special report on climate change

Climate Change Will Trigger The World's Greatest Refugee Crisis

Fairfax - Lisa Singh*

Millions of people will be driven from their homes by climate change over the next few decades. How can we help?

Rising sea levels are a significant threat to low-lying countries such as Kiribati. Photo: Justin McManus

Comment: Vehicle emissions and fuel efficiency under scrutiny

We've recently been witnessing the worst refugee crisis since World War II, with several million Syrians having fled their country.
It has rightly gripped Australians' attention and moved us deeply. But it coincides with a more obscure event that's potentially just as ominous.

Ioane Teitiota, of Kiribati, failed in a bid to use climate change as grounds for refugee status in New Zealand. Photo: Getty Images

In New Zealand, a man named Ioane Teitiota​ recently applied, and failed, to be accepted as the world's first climate-change refugee.
The 38-year-old arrived in New Zealand from Kiribati in 2007. When his visa expired, he sought refugee status to avoid deportation. He argued his family would be unsafe in Kiribati, which is threatened by rising seas and storm surges.
Unfortunately for Teitiota, the world's courts do not yet formally recognise climate-change refugees.
The 1951 Geneva Refugee Convention only applies to people who fear "being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality or political opinion". The threat of inundation does not yet apply.
Whatever the legal realities, Teitiota's case is a timely symbol of two looming, and interconnected, global crises.
One is the ecological crisis of climate change, which threatens human existence as we know it.
The second is the human crisis of refugees fleeing trauma and violence to reach peaceful nations that represent paradise by comparison.
These two great challenges are gradually merging into one great crisis of cause and effect, because climate change will ultimately create a further refugee crisis.
Traditionally, the main reasons for human displacement have been war, persecution, disease and poverty. Sadly, those problems are not going away. But in coming decades, they will be eclipsed by a wave of climate-change refugees.
Climate change will displace coastal communities with rising sea levels. It will cause drought and famine. And it will force residents out of rural areas that suffer greater risk of wildfire.
On current trends, the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts sea levels will rise by up to 60 centimetres by 2100, putting vast areas under water.
Scientific predictions about climate-change migration are somewhat varied, but universally disastrous. Consider the following prominent estimates and projections:
Climate change will displace up to 200 million people by 2050 (first predicted by Professor Norman Myers, and cited by the Stern Review and the UN). Almost 10 per cent of the world's population is at risk of displacement by 2100 (including 250 million in the Asia-Pacific alone). 250,000 Australian properties will be inundated by 2100.
We must start preparing now, with strong and ethical leadership. And we must harness the determination and compassion inspired by the Syrian crisis. Closed hearts and borders will not yield a solution.
Few places symbolise the looming crisis better than the Maldives, which rises just 2.4 metres above sea level.
The country's former president, Mohamed Nasheed, infamously confronted Western polluters with the following options: "You can drastically reduce your greenhouse gas emissions so that the seas do not rise so much ... Or, when we show up on your shores in our boats, you can let us in ... Or, when we show up on your shores in our boats, you can shoot us. You pick."
We may be only a decade or two from such a confronting scenario.
Australia is one of the world's highest per-capita emitters, with a conservative government whose climate-change denial and inaction has become a global embarrassment. Refugee policy also remains in a dark place.
But amid such huge challenges, there is also real hope and inspiration.
The response of most Australians to the Syrian refugee crisis shows that compassion, sacrifice and mutual responsibility are alive and well in our community, and offers hope for a less toxic debate about refugees.
Attitudes to climate change are also changing.
Recent polling showed 70 per cent of Australians now believe climate change is happening (up from 64 per cent in 2012), with 89 per cent of those accepting humans are at least partly the cause. So the deniers are now fewer than a third.
So, what to do about the looming challenge of climate change refugees? The answers are obviously complex, but, fundamentally, we will need a more co-operative and generous approach between nations – with far more shared responsibility and genuine resettlement options than now exist.
We will need less emphasis on borders of separation, and more emphasis on the equal value and equal rights of every living person, regardless of race, religion or wealth.
And we will need to defeat the toxic demonising of vulnerable people trying to cross borders in search of survival and security.
When the number of climate refugees starts to swell, it will take courage and compassion to cope.
There's a fight under way to inspire those values in our communities. And there's an ongoing fight to limit the damage of climate change and prepare for its consequences.
I believe we are up for it, if we open our hearts and minds.

*Lisa Singh is a Labor Senator for Tasmania and shadow parliamentary secretary for environment, climate change and water.

'You're The Voice': The Message Australian Climate Change Group 1 Million Women Is Taking To Paris

Fairfax - Deborah Snow

Australian climate action group 1 Millon Women launches stirring video and re-recording of The Voice as an anthem to take to Paris climate talks.

Natalie Isaacs, founder of Australian women's climate movement 1 Million Women, was facing a dilemma. The former cosmetics entrepreneur turned climate activist had embraced the suggestion of collaborator Andreas Smetana, that it would be an "amazing idea" to create an anthem – a call to action – in the run up to the international Paris climate summit, due to start at the end of this month.
But for weeks they couldn't come up with the right song. Then a day at the beach with a friend who had music industry connections threw up what seemed like the perfect solution: a reworking of John Farnham's powerful 1980s hit, You're the Voice.
"I thought yes, we could launch this ahead of the Paris conference and make this an utterly inspiring call from women for climate action," Ms Isaacs says.

Founder of the climate action group 1 Million Women, Natalie Isaacs (right), and singer Deni Hines.Photo: Wolter Peeters

"When I listened to the words, it's a timeless song, perfect for this and the message is so strong. I just set out to get that song. I spoke to the writers, the publishers, and by July finally got the rights."
More work followed to find the right performers and produce the accompanying video.
Singers Deni Hines, rock legend Wendy Matthews, country artist Melinda Schneider​ and Aboriginal singer and actor Ursula Yovich were willing recruits, as was actor Claudia Karvan. The result, with a striking video featuring images of women and girls of all ages and professions, will launch on Wednesday with the singers performing the song live at Sydney's climate change mass rally on Sunday.
A preview clip reached the Bonn office of UN climate chief Christiana Figueres​ late last week, eliciting her endorsement of it as a "powerful message of love, hope and healing'. Ms Isaacs has also won permission to present the song at the Paris summit Gender Day on December 8.
"Women are responsible for 85 per cent of the consumer decisions that affect the household carbon footprint" Ms Isaacs says of her 1 Million Women movement. "They are powerful changemakers. If you get millions of women making small changes each, that adds up to a huge amount of change collectively."
Ms Figueres, too, has campaigned hard to raise awareness of the vital role women play in combating climate change.
Women in the developing world were "disproportionately affected" by climate change, she told Fairfax Media, because "they are basically at the nexus of energy, water and food in developing countries; all of these three are directly affected by climate change."
Ms Isaacs and Ms Figueres formed a firm friendship after 1 Million Women earned a UN award for its work on the everyday actions households could take to minimise their carbon footprint.
"I never think in small numbers" says Ms Isaacs, who has so far signed up 370,000 members of the 1 million she is aiming for.
"The goal is for this song to be an anthem for global action, a very emotional challenge to world leaders delivered from women at this very moment when the Paris conference is on."
Deni Hines told Fairfax she had been drawn to the project because "climate change is an urgent topic that needs to be acted upon before it's too late. I live on this planet called Earth, and I like it here. Earth really seems to work for me. I can't see too many other planets out there to live on."
Ms Yovich said the song was a way to "unite people in making a stand for climate action" through music.

20-Year Review Shows 90% Of Disasters Are Weather-Related

The United Nations Office For Disaster Risk Reduction

20-year review shows 90% of disasters are weather-related; US, China, India, Philippines and Indonesia record the most

A new report issued today by the UN, “The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters”, shows that over the last twenty years, 90% of major disasters have been caused by 6,457 recorded floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts and other weather-related events.
The five countries hit by the highest number of disasters are the United States (472), China (441), India (288), Philippines (274), and Indonesia, (163).
The report and analysis compiled by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and the Belgian-based Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) demonstrates that since the first Climate Change Conference (COP1) in 1995, 606,000 lives have been lost and 4.1 billion people have been injured, left homeless or in need of emergency assistance as a result of weather-related disasters.
The report also highlights data gaps, noting that economic losses from weather-related disasters are much higher than the recorded figure of US$1.891 trillion, which accounts for 71% of all losses attributed to natural hazards over the twenty-year period. Only 35% of records include information about economic losses. UNISDR estimates that the true figure on disaster losses – including earthquakes and tsunamis – is between US$250 billion and US$300 billion annually.
Introducing the report, Ms. Margareta Wahlström, head of UNISDR, said: “Weather and climate are major drivers of disaster risk and this report demonstrates that the world is paying a high price in lives lost. Economic losses are a major development challenge for many least developed countries battling climate change and poverty.
“In the long term, an agreement in Paris at COP21 on reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be a significant contribution to reducing damage and loss from disasters which are partly driven by a warming globe and rising sea levels. For now, there is a need to reduce existing levels of risk and avoid creating new risk by ensuring that public and private investments are risk-informed and do not increase the exposure of people and economic assets to natural hazards on flood plains, vulnerable low-lying coastlines or other locations unsuited for human settlement.”
Ms. Wahlström said that the development year had started this March with the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, a 15-year package endorsed by the UN General Assembly, which sets out clear targets for a substantial reduction in disaster losses, including mortality, numbers of people affected, economic losses and damage to critical infrastructure including schools and hospitals.
Professor Debarati Guha-Sapir, head of CRED, said: “Climate change, climate variability and weather events are a threat to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals’ overall target of eliminating poverty. We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and tackle other risk drivers such as unplanned urban development, environmental degradation and gaps in early warnings. This all requires ensuring people are risk informed and strengthening institutions which manage disaster risk.”
Key details from the report
Asia accounts for the lion’s share of disaster impacts including 332,000 deaths and 3.7 billion people affected. The death toll in Asia included 138,000 deaths caused by Cyclone Nargis which struck Myanmar in 2008.
In total, an average of 335 weather-related disasters were recorded per year between 2005 and 2014, an increase of 14% from 1995-2004, and almost twice the level recorded during 1985-1995.
The extent of the toll taken by disasters on society is revealed by other statistics from CRED’s Emergency Events Data Base, or EM-DAT: 87 million homes were damaged or destroyed over the period of the survey.
Floods accounted for 47% of all weather-related disasters from 1995-2015, affecting 2.3 billion people and killing 157,000. Storms were the deadliest type of weather-related disaster, accounting for 242,000 deaths or 40% of the global weather-related deaths, with 89% of these deaths occurring in lower-income countries.
Overall, heatwaves accounted for 148,000 of the 164,000 lives lost due to extreme temperatures. 92% of heatwave deaths occurred in high-income countries, with Europe accounting for 90%.
Drought affects Africa more than any other continent, with EM-DAT recoding 136 events there between 1995 and 2015, including 77 droughts in East Africa alone. The report recommends that there needs to be improved data collection on indirect deaths from drought.

Links

• Download the report
• Download press release [PDF 392.03 kb]
• Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction

Climate For Change: Why Paris Matters So Much

Fairfax - Editorial

The five-yearly reviews mooted for the Paris agreement are essential to holding global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

The effects of climate change can be managed. Photo: Jessica Shapiro

Five years is a very short time when it comes to measuring global warming. It's an age, however, in terms of assessing the politics of climate change.
The political momentum for concerted global action looks much better today than it did five years ago when the Labor government of Julia Gillard started preparing for the ill-fated carbon tax. In recent months many nations have pledged to reduce emissions further than expected. Technology is evolving rapidly towards the goal of cleaner emissions. The price of renewables is falling. Business is starting to invest more in green energy. Even the Coalition government in Canberra is sensing the community's climate for change.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull will arrive at the United Nations Conference on Climate Change in Paris on Monday and may even stay for much of the 12-day duration. That's progress. His predecessor, Tony Abbott, wasn't even committed to attending.
While expectations are high, they have been dashed before.
Just nine weeks ago Mr Turnbull ousted Mr Abbott by pledging not to change the Coalition's climate policy. But he has - at least at the margins. He's saved and strengthened the Climate Change Authority and promised a review of Direct Action after the election while suggesting his government is open to even stronger goals in Paris. Crucially, he is open to toughening through five-yearly reviews our underwhelming emissions reduction targets for 2030 – 26-28 per cent on 2005 levels, or 19 per cent on 2000 levels.
On the face of it Australia is back in the green economy business and voters seem happy with that. Subscribers to the Herald can participate in a special SMH Live event on Wednesday night at the Museum of Contemporary Art in The Rocks to discuss how best to utilise Australia's revitalised climate for change.
One thing is certain: Direct Action is too expensive to stand alone as a long-term solution. As configured it will not be able to deliver anything like the required reductions. As such there a lot of "ifs" involved in the Turnbull government's commitments, no matter the outcome in Paris. Mr Turnbull will only be able to do more to tackle global warming if he can overcome the hardliners in his government; if he wins the next election convincingly to obtain a mandate for agility on climate change policy; if voters fear the words "carbon tax" when uttered by Labor but don't mind "what works best" when uttered by the Coalition; and if the Prime Minister is prepared to morph existing elements of Direct Action into a globally linked, market-based reduction scheme as soon as 2017.
Mr Turnbull's task will be made much easier if the 196 nations in Paris can agree to ratchet up action. Success there will help neutralise Labor's market-based plans - yet to be revealed in detail besides a target of 50 per cent renewables in contrast to the government's reduced renewable energy target. A deal in Paris will also help Mr Turnbull outmanoeuvre internal Coalition critics.
The five-yearly reviews mooted for the Paris agreement are essential to holding global warming to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Thus far the pledges of nations only hold warming to 2.7 degrees, although that's still better than the estimated 4-5 degree warming should nations continue on current polluting paths. The hope is for a snowball effect as each nation offers more action to reach ever increasing emission reductions targets.
Sticking points linger over the long-term goal, though. Mr Turnbull has agreed to support the 2 degrees goal and is reportedly ready to accept 1.5 degrees if consensus can be reached. The ambition for fossil fuels is also ticklish, with Australia preferring "carbon neutrality" by 2050 rather than the stronger "decarbonisation" or "zero emissions". The Herald agrees coal will contribute to economies for decades, but Australia must invest far more in innovations to find cheaper, cleaner energy and carbon storage. The other obstacle will be finding more money to compensate developing nations for the economic hardship of solutions to a problem caused in large part by developed nations. Already $US100 billion a year by 2020 has been promised but there are demands for guarantees on more after that. Some developing nations and Saudi Arabia are expected to object to any tough language in the Paris communique at all.
The Herald hopes Australia's apparent return to the lead in fighting global warming will help convince naysayers here and abroad that the Paris summit offers an opportunity we cannot afford to miss.