Australia produced enough renewable energy to power 70 per cent of
households last financial year, new data shows, but advocates warn the
booming industry will flounder unless the Turnbull government commits to
a clean energy target.
The government is sharply divided over
whether to adopt the target, the central recommendation of Chief
Scientist Alan Finkel's review of the national electricity market.
Sunverge chief executive Ken Munson said Australia's high penetration of
rooftop solar, where one in five homes use power from the sun, put the
country at the forefront of the transforming energy industry.
New data to be released on Monday shows Australia produced enough
renewable energy to power 7.1 million homes, or 70 per cent of
households, in the year to June.
This avoided carbon pollution
equal to removing 8.1 million cars from the road for a year – more than
half the cars in Australia.
Minister for Environment Josh Frydenberg. Photo: Alex Ellinghausen
The data, known as the Renewable Energy Index, was produced by analysts Green Energy Markets and funded by advocacy group GetUp!
It shows renewables comprised 17.2 per cent of electricity generated in Australia's east and west coast main grids last financial year, up from 7 per cent a decade ago.
Green Energy Markets director of analysis and advisory, Tristan Edis, said the industry had recovered from an "investment drought" under former prime minister Tony Abbott, whose government cut the renewable energy target.
Mr Edis said investors had recovered confidence under Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull but the boom "could soon turn to bust" unless the government adopts a clean energy target, which would provide investment certainty beyond 2020 when the renewable energy target peaks.
Australia produced enough renewable energy to power 70 per cent of households last financial year, new data shows. Photo: Jessica Shapiro
The index showed at the end of June this year, 46 large-scale
renewable energy projects were being built. They are expected to create
enough construction jobs to employ 8868 people fulltime for a year.
Almost
150,000 small-scale rooftop solar systems were installed during the
year to June, which will deliver about $1.6 billion in power bill
savings over the next decade, or almost $10,000 per system.
Environment Minister Josh Frydenberg said Australia's energy market was in transition "as we move to a lower-emissions future".
"It
is not about stopping the transition or renewables versus fossil fuels,
it's about managing the transition to ensure affordable and reliable
energy supply," he said.
Mr Frydenberg cited Clean Energy Council
figures showing there was a record $8 billion of renewable investment
underway, delivering more than 4000MW of new renewable generation
capacity.
He has previously said the clean energy target, if
implemented, would not come into effect until 2020 so there was "no
rush" for the government to make a decision.
GetUp! environmental
justice campaign director Miriam Lyons said the new data showed the
renewable energy industry was now a "major player".
"It reveals a
dramatic shift in public sentiment towards green energy ... [and that]
public support for renewables has been resilient in the face of so many
political attacks," she said.
The index, to be updated monthly,
will track the renewable energy Australia produces, jobs created,
pollution reduced and savings on power bills from rooftop solar.
The unexpected boom in China’s solar PV installation this year may have
an unfortunate impact on the ambitious plans of many in Australia’s
surging solar sector – a bottleneck in module supplies and price rises
by the end of the year.
Source: Flickr
The supply crunch has been predicted by market analyst IHS, as part
of its forecast for a record 90GW of solar PV to be installed across the
world in 2017, with 45GW of this to be installed in China alone.
The size of China’s installations – nearly equivalent to the size of
Australia’s entire grid capacity – has taken analysts by surprise,
because it was generally assumed that the strong first half installation
was due to the expiry of a generous geed-in tariff on July 1.
But the installation rates have continued unabated, with 11.3GW
installed in July alone, and IHS says the China demand is consuming a
large proportion of the global PV module supply, leading to increased
prices and lead times that extend into 2018.
“The latest installation forecast implies that the PV module supply
chain is at the very upper end of what it can produce within a year. In
reality, the final number of module shipments for 2017 is likely to be
limited by the supply of polysilicon.
“As a result of the tight supply, projects are being delayed” and as a
result IHS Markit has cut its forecast for installations outside of
China in 2017 by 7GW.
Australia, which is experiencing a boom in large-scale solar projects, and in rooftop solar, is also expected to be affected.
“This high China demand has a great impact on pricing and
availability in markets sourcing modules from China, such as Australia,”
says IHS analyst Josefin Berg.
“Many of the large PV projects secured modules earlier in the year,
and may not be impacted. But we do expect some of the large projects
that initially were planned for 2017 completion to be pushed into 2018.”
Solar farm developers and contractors confirmed to RenewEconomy that
the supply crunch was starting to have an impact. “Absolutely, there is
high demand for modules at the moment,” said one. “There is a global
shortage, pricing has gone up the past 6 weeks,” said on wholesaler.
According to Reneweconomy’s data, there are more than 2,300MW of
large-scale solar plants either under construction or about to build
across Australia, and another 12GW of projects in the pipeline –
although it seems clear that not all these will be built.
Most solar projects are effectively being built without subsidy,
because the off-takers are generally taking the renewable energy
certificates that will be generated by the plant.
Only those companies with deep enough pockets to fund the equity
component are able to take the “merchant risk” and sell into the
wholesale market and benefit from the current high price of LGCs.
However, few of these plants are actually under construction.
The competitive nature of the contract market is being exacerbated by
the fact that the big retailers are close to filling their legislated
mandates, and the corporate PPA market is only just emerging. This is
keeping margins fine, and a rise in module prices – even as little as 10
per cent – could have an impact on returns and pricing.
Global module pricing is also being affected by the Suniva trade case
in the US, where a tariff on Chinese module imports is being
considered.
Solar module prices have rebounded to the mid US40c/watt, a 25 to 30
per cent increase over prices just a few months earlier, which Deutsche
Bank says is driven also by stronger global demand, lack of supply chain
inventory and supply shut-downs at some Chinese companies that
are transitioning standard lines into higher efficiency lines.
“Although China demand is likely to slow down in (the second half),
demand is not falling off a cliff and the recently introduced China
target suggests that China demand would remain relatively stable in 2018
timeframe while demand in rest of the world continues to grow,” it said
in an analysis two weeks ago.
“Across the supply chain, poly, wafer and Taiwanese cell prices have
also started increasing over the past few months, reflecting the overall
tightness in solar supply chain.”
As an example of how price variations can affect project pipelines,
Deutsche says that a tariff of 10c/watt could impact 80 per cent of the
pipeline of large-scale solar projects in the US.
In Australia, however, that impact may not be so great because solar
is competing against soaring wholesale prices and huge retail prices,
meaning that the savings for business consumers in particular remain
substantial, once management turns their mind to it.
In recent months, Australian major energy users, like Sun Metals, Telstra,
the Whyalla steel plant, Nectar Farms, and numerous smaller businesses
are also investing heavily in wind and solar and storage, some up to the
level of 100 per cent.
Four of the world’s biggest companies – Apple, Amazon, Google and
Facebook, have vowed to source all their electricity needs from
renewable energy within a few years, and they have also been joined by
the likes of IKEA and brewing giant In-Bev, the owner of Foster’s.
Apple and Foster’s have yet to announce their plans to make their
Australian operations 100 per cent renewables, but PPAs for solar plants
are expected to feature high in their strategy.
In an earlier report, Deutsche Bank said that the global average
unsubsidised levelized cost of delivered solar would be cheaper than
coal in more than 50 markets by 2022.
This would represent 5,000GW of available market potential,
underlining a point made earlier this week by UNSW solar pioneer Martin
Green, who expects prices to fall to $US10/MWh
in some parts of the world, with prices in the mid $US20/MWh to be
standard elsewhere, pushing the world towards annual installation
targets of 1,000GW by the mid 202s, compared to just under 100GW now.
Solar panels are still a rarity in WA’s lower-income areas.
Orderinchaos/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA
Many Western Australian householders are living in “energy poverty”,
according to our new Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre research report, Power to the People: WA’s Energy Future.
Although average household spending on electricity, gas and heating
is no more than 4% of income, the figure rises considerably for those on
lower incomes. In particular, more than a quarter of single-parent
families say they spend more than 10% of their income on energy.
Single parents in particular are far more exposed to energy poverty, a
trend that has grown over the past 10 years. Around one in ten of these
households spends at least 15% of their income on energy costs. In some
cases, this forces them to compromise on other essentials such as food
and health care.
Rising energy costs, as well as a personal commitment to reducing
greenhouse gases, are motivating many WA households to vote with their
feet (or wallets) and adopt rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) panels at a
dramatic rate.
In WA, the installed capacity of rooftop solar PV has grown by 37% in
the past 18 months alone. Around 25% of suitable dwellings are now
fitted with solar panels. This takes WA to third place among Australian
states, behind Queensland (32%) and South Australia (31%).
If this trend continues, the state’s rooftop solar PV capacity is
predicted to exceed 2,000 megawatts by 2022. That’s larger than all but
one of WA’s power stations.
Generating capacity from WA rooftop solar, 2016 to 2022
Projections are based on predictions
from a log linear regression of total MW of rooftop solar PV capacity,
and reflect the growth both in the number of installations and the
average MW output per solar PV installation.Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre/Clean Energy Regulator
Similar trends are predicted at a national level, with consumer-bought rooftop solar PV expected to account for around 24% of electricity generation by 2040.
This is set to make Australia one of the most decentralised electricity
networks in the world, with 45% of its total generating capacity coming
from “behind the meter”.
Haves and have-nots
Rooftop solar is a popular option, but not all households are able to
take advantage of this technology. Our report reveals a clear
socioeconomic gradient in household solar installations in WA.
Panels are fitted to only 7.4% of suitable homes in areas in the
lowest 10% on socioeconomic indicators. That figure rises to 16% in the
next-lowest 10%, and the gap widens still further as income rises. Solar
installation rates are around 30% in mid-to-high socioeconomic areas.
Share of suitable WA homes with solar panels, by level of socioeconomic disadvantage
Homes deemed suitable for solar PV
include detached, semi-detached or terraced houses, but not
strata-titled apartments or units.Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre/Clean Energy Regulator/ABS
Better incentives could boost these numbers,
especially in poorer areas. The initial upfront costs deter many
homeowners, while most landlords have little financial motivation to
install solar on rental properties.
Accessible, secure and affordable energy is essential to any
well-functioning economy. And many citizens, communities and
governments are acting on the imperative to move to a greener source.
Despite its huge amounts of wind and sunshine, WA lags behind other
states both in committing to a clear renewable energy target and in its
investment in large-scale renewable power projects.
Renewable projects under construction or at commissioning stage in 2017
Projects at the commissioning phase
at the end of 2016 are not included in the total new capacity figure.
Investment in the South Australia Hornsdale Wind Farm includes stages 1,
2 and 3. Data for ACT and NT not available; ACT is expected to draw
most of its renewable energy from other states and territories.Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre/Clean Energy Council Australia/various other sources
According to our report, WA’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2015
were 86.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent – fourth-ranked
behind Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. This means WA
contributed 16.1% of Australia’s national emissions that year.
But while other states and territories have adopted proactive
emissions-reduction policies such as state-based renewable energy
targets, WA has not yet taken substantial action on this front.
Here’s the likely game-changer: efficient, cost-effective battery storage that can deliver power at the scale required. Storage is set to become vital, both for smoothing out domestic power consumption from solar panels and for large-scale electricity generation. The Finkel Review
has recommended that all future renewable energy projects be required
to produce “dispatchable” power – that is, be able to store their power
and release it at times of higher demand.
Greater efficiency in balancing energy demand over the course of the
day, and across large-scale grid systems that feature a range of
different weather conditions, is also likely to help overcome the
intermittency problems associated with renewable sources.
Australia is on the cusp of an energy revolution, and the pace of
change is only going to increase. WA, like every state, needs a clear
roadmap to navigate the journey effectively, one that integrates
existing and emerging energy technologies and maintains protections for
families who cannot currently afford solar panels.
This will give greater certainty to the energy future we can all expect – and, critically, ensure that no one is left behind.
Changes in sea level height from 1993 to 2017 compared with a
long-term mean of the data. Blue and purple are lower than the mean;
red, yellow and white are higher. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.
August 10 marked the 25th anniversary of the launch of a
revolutionary ocean research vessel — a space "ship." As the NASA/CNES
Topex-Poseidon satellite ascended into orbit, it ushered in a new era of
oceanography with the first highly accurate, global measurements of sea
levels. That mission and its three successors, all named Jason, have
continuously mapped global ocean currents and tides; opened our eyes to
the global reach of El Niño and other climate events; created a
quarter-century-long, extraordinarily precise record of global and
regional sea level rise; and enabled improved forecasts of extreme
weather events such as hurricanes, floods and droughts.
A new slideshow celebrates this important data set — a fundamental
measurement for the study of the oceans and climate — and the
longstanding U.S.-French collaboration that brought it about.
In 1992, when Topex-Poseidon launched, no one foresaw that its record
of precision ocean height measurements would continue through three
decades and four spacecraft. In fact, many oceanographers at the time
weren't convinced that Topex-Poseidon's sensors would be accurate enough
to reveal the signal of sea level rise out of the noise of waves, tides
and other changes. But the radar altimeter and radiometer measurement
system outperformed expectations from the start. In 25 years of
continuous operation, Topex-Poseidon and its successors have recorded
2.8 inches (7 centimeters) of global average sea level rise.
Our planet’s oceans are too vast and complex to be fully measured by
any single satellite, or even by any single nation. Topex-Poseidon and
its successor Jason satellite missions are shining examples of the power
of a sustained, long-term international partnership, led by the U.S.
and French space agencies, NASA and CNES. For nearly three decades,
NASA and CNES scientists and engineers have pooled their expertise,
talents and insights to design and construct an integrated spaceborne
measurement system far more powerful than the sum of its parts. NASA and
CNES have worked together, applying advanced technology to collect
measurements of remarkable precision and accuracy, and then making those
measurements freely and openly available. With this effort, they have
provided humanity with unprecedented views of the global oceans, how
they change on time scales of days to decades, and how the oceans
influence — and respond to — weather and climate.
“For more than a generation, NASA and CNES scientists and engineers
have collaborated to make exquisitely accurate measurements of the ocean
surface from space, providing insights into the workings and
interactions of our planet’s two great fluid systems, the oceans and the
atmosphere,” said Michael Freilich, director of NASA’s Earth Science
Division in Washington.
Ocean currents
This is an animation of ocean surface currents from June 2005 to
December 2007 from NASA satellites. Watch how bigger currents like the
Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean and the Kuroshio in the Pacific carry
warm waters across thousands of miles at speeds greater than four miles
per hour (six kilometers per hour); how coastal currents like the
Agulhas in the Southern Hemisphere move equatorial waters toward Earth's
poles; and how thousands of other ocean currents are confined to
particular regions and form slow-moving, circular pools called eddies.
Credit: NASA/SVS. Download video.
The Topex-Poseidon mission was the first to monitor the changing
patterns of major ocean surface currents in a comprehensive way. Ocean
current locations are revealed by large-scale hills and valleys on the
ocean surface, which can vary by more than 6 feet (2 meters) in height.
The peaks and dips defining the ocean’s topography are caused by
variations in water temperature and pressure. Large-scale currents like
the Gulf Stream tend to flow along contours of constant ocean height,
following the sides of the hills and valleys. The steepness of a slope
indicates the speed of the current. Unlike terrain on land, however, the
liquid "landscape" shifts with changes in winds, temperature and other
factors, causing shifts in the locations and speeds of the currents. The
only way to monitor these changes over the entire surface of Earth's
ocean is to make precise measurements of the height of the ocean surface
from orbiting satellites.
Measuring the ocean shape over nearly the entire globe every 10 days,
Topex-Poseidon gave the first quantitative view of how ocean currents
change with the seasons. Topex/Poseidon and the Jason-1, Jason-2 and
Jason-3 missions have provided unique insights into how ocean
circulation affects climate by moving heat from place to place on our
planet.
Heat storage in the ocean
NOAA's annual assessment of the heat in the upper ocean (2015 shown), a
measure of global warming, draws on Topex series data. Image credit:
NOAA.
More than 90 percent of the heat from global warming is stored in the
ocean, which means oceans are key players in global climate. Heat
causes ocean water to expand, adding to sea level rise. Measuring both
long-term sea level trends and the shape of the ocean surface related to
currents, Topex-Poseidon and the Jason series provide two basic
ingredients for understanding the ocean's role in global climate
variations.
"As human-caused global warming drives sea levels higher and higher,
we are literally contributing to the reshaping of the surface of our
planet," said Josh Willis, NASA project scientist for Jason-3 at NASA's
Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "The precision
altimetric satellite missions tell us how much and how fast."
El Niño, La Niña, and more
Among Topex-Poseidon's early achievements was recording the full extent
of a record El Niño in 1997 and the succeeding La Niña in 1999. Darker
colors are sea levels lower than normal, lighter and white colors are
higher than normal. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.
For decades, scientists could not predict how El Niño and other
year-to-year ocean variations changed regional weather. That was partly
because, using only ships and buoys, they couldn't observe the genesis
and growth of these changes far out in the equatorial Pacific.
Topex-Poseidon and the Jason satellites have given the first frequent,
global views of the full extent and life cycles of El Niño and La Niña
events. Lee-Lueng Fu of JPL — project scientist for the first two ocean
altimetry missions — pointed out, "Topex-Poseidon allowed us to follow
their evolution and showed that these events weren't limited to just the
tropics. It also gave us evidence of even longer-lasting ocean
variations." One of these is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, similar to
El Niño and La Niña in character but with phases lasting up to several
decades.
In the last 25 years, with the help of altimetry data, scientists
have pinpointed many global connections between these multi-year ocean
variations and weather consequences such as drought and flooding
throughout the globe. While these events have by no means yielded all
their secrets, they are better understood and better forecast than
before global spaceborne observations began.
Tides on the open ocean
A numerical model of daily global tides using sea level data from Topex-Poseidon. Image credit: ESR.
Before satellite measurements, deep-ocean tide measurements were
difficult to make, expensive and sparse. Topex-Poseidon made the first
global maps of tides, which changed scientists' understanding of how
tides dissipate. The data show that a third of tidal energy dissipates
in the open ocean, playing important and previously unknown roles in
mixing water within the ocean.
Jason-1
Topex-Poseidon had a three-year prime mission, but long before that
time was up, oceanographers and other Earth scientists recognized the
value of continuing its measurements as long as possible. Fu explained,
"Sea surface height is a fundamental measure of the Earth system, so it
was a no-brainer that scientists would want to have this kind of
information indefinitely." With strong community support, Jason-1 was
constructed by NASA and CNES and launched in December 2001. For three
years, Topex-Poseidon and Jason-1 flew in coordinated orbits that
allowed scientists to cross-calibrate their measurements and then
combine the data sets to observe the global oceans more frequently. Each
succeeding mission has also overlapped its predecessor, ensuring a
consistent data record.
So far, each of the ocean altimetry missions has proven to be
long-lived. Topex-Poseidon was eventually decommissioned in 2005 after
13 years in orbit. Jason-1 survived almost 12 years, until July 2013.
Nine-year-old Jason-2 and Jason-3 (launched in January 2016) are still
in operation.
Jason-2
Lee Fu (left) was the project scientist for Topex Poseidon and Jason-1
and -2. Josh Willis is the current project scientist for Jason-2 and -3.
Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.
With the launch of Jason-2 in June 2008, the focus of spaceborne
ocean altimetry transitioned from research objectives to data
applications providing tangible benefits to society. Mission operations
moved from the research agencies NASA and CNES to the U.S. National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European
Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites
(EUMETSAT); indeed, satellite altimeter measurements are used routinely
in NOAA’s El Niño forecasts. NASA and CNES continue to provide science
teams, instrument design, and science-focused, specialized data
management.
Forecasting
Jason-1 data contributed to this forecast of Hurricane Rita's track
across the Gulf of Mexico in 2005. The storm track appears as a black
line. Jason-1 observed a tongue of very warm water (red) in the gulf,
13-23 inches (35-60 centimeters) higher than surrounding water. Ocean
heat can strengthen hurricane intensity. Image credit:
NASA/JPL-Caltech/University of Colorado.
On smaller space and time scales, satellite altimetry measurements
provide information directly useful for marine storm prediction.
Hurricanes are fueled by heat stored in the ocean below, and since the
upper ocean expands and contracts as it heats and cools, sea level
height is a marker for water temperature and heat content. So it is
hardly surprising that ocean altimetry data are routinely used in
forecasting hurricane strength.
In 2014, an unexpected forecasting use for altimetry data became
operational. Bangladesh, whose 46-year history has encompassed
death-dealing river floods, uses Jason-2 measurements of river levels in
its flood forecasting and warning system. Within the first year using
these data, Bangladesh's system enabled the most accurate, long-lead
flood warnings ever given for that nation.
Navigation
The U.S. Navy uses the ocean altimetry satellites' data to aid surface and underwater navigation. Image credit: U.S. Navy.
Civilian sailors and the U.S. Navy use the series' near-real-time
data on currents, eddies, winds and waves to aid surface and underwater
navigation. Information on eddy currents in the Gulf of Mexico has been
used by marine operators to schedule offshore drilling operations, with
significant cost savings.
Jason-3
Artist's rendering of Jason-3. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech.
When Jason-3 launched in 2016, NASA project scientist Willis
commented, "This mission has big shoes to fill. Its predecessors have
built one of the clearest records we have of our changing climate."
Jason-3 has performed flawlessly in continuing the global record of
precise sea-surface topography measurements and is now halfway through
its prime mission.
A new role for Jason-2
Jason-2's new, lower orbit will allow scientists — such as Walter H. Smith
(NOAA) and David Sandwell (Scripps Institution of Oceanography), who
produced this map — to improve their understanding of features on the
global seafloor. Image credit: NOAA.
This year, Jason-2's onboard systems began to show signs of space
radiation damage. The mission management decided to lower the satellite
out of its shared orbit with Jason-3. At the urging of the science
community, the satellite was lowered by 17 miles (27 kilometers), where
it will collect data along a series of ground tracks only 5 miles (8
kilometers) apart, with a one-year repeat cycle.
Besides protecting Jason-3, the new orbit will allow Jason-2 to
produce an improved, high-resolution estimate of Earth's average sea
surface height. Because ocean topography is partly determined by the
contours on the ocean bottom, the estimate is expected to enable
scientists to improve maps of the seafloor, resolving currently unknown
details of underwater features such as seamounts. These maps will permit
advances in ocean modeling, tsunami wave forecasting and naval
operations support.
Into the future
Illustration of the upcoming Sentinel-6 mission. Image credit: ESA.
The next ocean altimetry mission, expected to launch in 2020, is
called Jason Continuity of Service (Jason-CS) on the Sentinel-6 mission.
As the long name implies, it will carry on the proud Jason legacy, but
with a new partner: the European Space Agency. EUMETSAT will lead the
mission, and NASA's role will remain similar to its role in Jason-3.
CNES will assess and evaluate the performance of the mission and provide
precise orbit determination.
Satellites have already revolutionized oceanography, and soon they
will do the same for hydrology -- the study of water on land. The
French/U.S. Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will be at
the forefront, carrying an innovative interferometer dubbed KaRin that
marks a break with today's technologies.
Fu notes that these changes show the value the world scientific
community places on the ocean altimetry program. "The measurement is so
important, and the technology is fully demonstrated," he said. "In the
long haul, ocean altimetry is an international commitment."
Donald Trump has done many things to tarnish America’s reputation, but his decision to walk away from the Paris Agreement
is probably the most internationally symbolic and damaging. That a US
president can put climate change denial at the centre of his climate and
energy policy is truly unprecedented, and it is difficult to remember
an administration that has been so intent on undermining the intellectual and scientific findings on global warming.
Fighting back against Trump’s climate folly seems to be an uphill task. Even the impending publication of the Climate Science Special Report,
drafted by scientists from 13 federal agencies, is unlikely to do much.
The final report is expected to warn of the dangers of climate change,
but it will most likely be surreptitiously sidelined.
One of the reasons behind Trump’s bullish attitude might be to do
with public opinion in the US. In a poll carried out by Yale University
in 2016, 70% of Americans said they believed in global warming
and 58% believed that it will harm Americans. However, only 40% believe
that it will actually impact them individually. Furthermore, just 24%
said they heard about global warming in the media every week.
In a poll conducted by the Pew Research Centre this year, 76% said
terrorism should be a top priority for the administration. Only 38% mentioned global warming.
The polls suggest that Americans might be concerned about global
warming and want more to be done about it. But they are more likely to
be worried about, say, Kim Jong-un than climate change.
It’s a Chinese conspiracy, folks.Avivi Aharon / shutterstock
It appears that confronting Trump – or any other climate denier – on the basis of facts simply won’t work.
The challenge should perhaps be to first rally public opinion until
there is an overwhelming consensus that serious and urgent action is
needed.
One practical short-term solution might be to shift the public
discourse from “climate change” to “pollution”. Focusing on pollution
has three advantages that may mean it moves public opinion better than
global warming.
Can’t see ‘warming’
First, pollution is tangible. The fact that glaciers are melting
might be alarming but it is not something that most of us experience in
everyday life. And why would a rise in temperature matter as much to
someone living in Sacramento, California, where it is already hot and
where one can find shelter in air conditioned buildings?
Pollution, however, can be experienced on a daily basis and causes
nuisances of all sorts. The same Sacramento resident who is indifferent
to global warming might be concerned with the pollution in their local urban river parkway, for instance. In addition, reports claiming that there are millions of annual deaths
from air pollution have a different, more personal ring from those
making the more abstract claim that “global temperatures” are rising
fast.
People care about pollution
Americans also seem to be more concerned about the environment than global warming. In the same opinion poll
carried out by Pew, 55% of Americans saw “the environment” as a
priority, a similar score to crime or poverty (and comfortably ahead of
the military, immigration or “global warming”). They seem to be more
worried about the quality of air and water where they live rather than
losing sleep over a global climate phenomenon.
Not for sale.welcomia / shutterstock
What might also be encouraging is a poll carried out by the Center for American Progress this year which showed around two-thirds of those who voted for Trump
opposed the idea of privatising or selling off America’s national
forests and public lands. Whether this is a strong enough basis for
there to be a rallying of the public is difficult to know. Nevertheless,
focusing on the local environment is a good start.
You, the expert
A focus on pollution might also actually open up the debate on the
environment and encourage some kind of grassroot reaction. Too often the
discourse on the environment and global warming has been dominated by
scientific experts and politicians. As such, the public might believe
that this is a matter of scientific debate that somehow they cannot
participate in, without some prior knowledge. After all, what can you,
personally, contribute to a debate on carbon dioxide parts-per-million,
or melting glaciers? Would you even know either was a problem if
scientists hadn’t warned us?
By contrast, feeling the effects of environmental pollution does not
require expert knowledge. The public can express remedial actions and
suggestions, without having to pretend that they understand atmospheric
science. Moreover, actions are more likely to be taken on a local level
if the focus is on local pollution.
The public should be scientists’ first ally in this battle. Any
language and issues that engage people against Trump’s climate folly in
whatever way should be the priority for scientists and policy makers
seeking to address the problem. Links
Government says law, which will include 40% renewables by 2025 and commitment to invest in new projects, will send a strong signal to investors
The Victorian renewable energy targets will rely on a reverse auction to
encourage the construction of new wind and solar projects.
Photograph: Pacific Hydro Limited
The Victorian government has introduced legislation to enshrine its
renewable energy targets in law and establish a reverse auction
mechanism to build 650 megawatts worth of new projects.
The premier, Daniel Andrews, announced the Victorian renewable energy targets (VRET) of 25% renewable energy by 2020 and 40% by 2025 in June 2016.
If Andrews can negotiate it past the upper house, the legislation introduced to parliament on Wednesday will make Victoria the first state to enshrine both its renewable energy targets and its commitment to invest in renewable energy in law.
That will send a strong signal to investors, environment minister
Lily D’Ambrosio said, and provide certainty for both the energy industry
and electricity consumers.
“These are ambitious yet achievable targets and this is the policy
certainty and it’s the right policy that industry has been deeply
searching for to make sure they can actually make the right decisions to
invest in our state,” D’Ambrosio said.
The VRET will rely on a reverse auction to encourage the construction
of new wind and solar projects in Victoria. D’Ambrosio said modelling
by the state government showed it would reduce household electricity
bills by $30 a year over the life of the scheme and drive a 16%
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2034.
“In a pure economics sense more supply means cheaper prices and that’s what we will be modelling it on,” she said.
Leading experts agree that renewable energy is the cheapest form of new power generation, D’Ambrosio said.
Victoria has already held a limited reverse auction to commission two
new solar plants designed to power Melbourne’s tram network.
The successful tenders, announced on Wednesday, are the 100 megawatt
Bannerton Solar Park near Robinvale in north-west Victoria and a 38
megawatt solar farm at Numerka, near Shepparton.
D’Ambrosio said the new projects would provide 138 megawatts of solar
power and create jobs in regional areas. Expressions of interest for
the reverse auction for 650 megawatts of renewable energy power
generation – enough to power 389,000 homes or the combined residential
areas of Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo and the Latrobe Valley – will open
in October.
Victoria has long been critical
of the Turnbull government’s commitment to a clean energy target and
threatened to work around government “indecision”. The current federal
renewable energy target expires in 2020.
“What we know is that in the absence of policy certainty and
leadership in Victoria it’s up to states like Victoria to fill that
void, to make sure that we’re doing everything that we can to drive the
transition that is incredibly important,” Andrews said.
Environmental
groups praised the decision, saying it led the way for other states and
territories to enshrine their own targets in legislation and send a
strong message they were transitioning away from fossil fuel power.
The Australian Conservation Foundation climate change campaigner,
Suzanne Harter, said leadership was particularly important because of a
“policy paralysis at a federal level”.
“The mechanism that the Victorian government is using is a tried and
true mechanism,” Harter said. “Coupled with the targets, it sends clear
signals to investors and to the sector.”
The Environment Victoria campaigns manager, Nicholas Aberle, said the
legislation showed the promise to get to 40% renewables was not an
“aspirational target”.
“It’s one thing to want more renewable energy but it’s another thing
to create a mechanism to make it happen,” he said. “The federal
government does not have the monopoly over energy policy and if they are
going to continue to not take climate change seriously then states are
going to step in.”
Aberle said new renewable energy projects would have to be spread
throughout Victoria to fit within the limits of the existing electricity
network and to provide energy security, preventing one severe weather
event from taking out the power for the whole state, as a storm did last year in South Australia.
Some places, like the Latrobe Valley, have significant unused transmission capacity because of the closure of the Hazelwood power station, making them an ideal site for windfarms.
In March the Andrews government announced a $20m tender to build 100mw of battery storage in Victoria by 2018,
in time to store power generated by the as yet commissioned renewable
energy plants. Three months later, Tesla founder Elon Musk committed to
build in South Australia the world’s largest lithium ion battery to store renewable energy.
Aberle said the speed with which battery technology was developing had put the goal of 100% renewable energy within reach.
“This is a really disruptive technology that’s going to completely
reshape what our energy sector looks like in the future,” he said. “It’s
going to shape it in a really positive way because it’s going to allow
us to get to 100% renewable energy much more quickly.
Kelp plants grow on a 30-foot-long, white PVC pole suspended in the water. If this is successful, instead of just one row, there would be a whole platform, hundreds of meters across and hundreds of meters deep, full of kelp plants. Courtesy of David Ginsburg/Wrigley Institute
The push for renewable energy in the U.S. often focuses on
well-established sources of electricity: solar, wind and hydropower. Off
the coast of California, a team of researchers is working on what they
hope will become an energy source of the future — macroalgae, otherwise
known as kelp.
Diane Kim is the associate director of special projects and the director of undergraduate programs at The Wrigley Institute for Environmental Studies. She is one of the researchers who runs the kelp elevator project. Monika Evstatieva/NPR
The Pacific Coast is known for its vast kelp forests. It's one of the
fastest-growing plants on Earth, and farming it requires no fertilizer,
fresh water, pesticides, or arable land. "It can grow 2 to 3 feet per
day," says Diane Kim, one of the scientists running the kelp research
project at the University of Southern California.
Kelp is
transformed into biofuel by a process called thermochemical
liquefaction. The kelp is dried out, and the salt is washed away. Then
it's turned into bio-oil through a high-temperature, high-pressure
conversion process.
Some small companies are growing kelp as a substitute for kale
in the U.S., but that's exactly the problem – very, very few are doing
it. Thus, the infrastructure and investment isn't in place to make other
products from kelp, like biofuel.
"We're testing out a concept
that would enable large-scale, open-ocean farming," she says. "And what
that would essentially do is grow enough kelp to make it economically
feasible to make it cost competitive and maybe one day, provide a source
of clean, sustainable, non-polluting source of energy to compete with
fossil fuels."
Twenty-five miles from downtown Los Angeles, on
sunny Catalina Island, Kim and her colleagues operate a center called
the Wrigley Institute of Environmental Studies. The clean, deep waters
off the island provide a great environment for research.
The Wrigley Marine Science Center is located 20 miles off the coast of Los Angeles, on Santa Catalina Island. Monika Evstatieva/NPR
Harvesting kelp in California for commercial purposes is not
unprecedented. "They did have these large boats that gave the kelp a
haircut, harvesting kelp along the California coast," Kim explains.
During World War I, kelp was used to make gunpowder. By the 1960s, a
company in San Diego harvested kelp to make products like alginate,
which is a solidifying agent in ice cream and cosmetics.
Here on Catalina Island, Kim and her colleagues are trying
to build a machine that would raise and lower kelp beds to get sunlight
in the shallow water and nutrients in the deep water. This would allow
them to farm miles from shore. They call the device a "kelp elevator."
There are real obstacles to creating large-scale kelp farms in the U.S., though.
"At
the moment, they're way behind the curve," says University of Hawaii
tenured researcher Michael Cooney of the Hawaii Natural Energy
Institute. He says countries in Asia and Scandinavia are much farther
along than the U.S.
One of the main reasons for this discrepancy is that these countries
have been growing kelp for food for many years. "They already have a
pre-existing infrastructure that's pretty sophisticated for growing and
harvesting," Cooney explains. "It's harvesting for food and other
products, but a lot of that capital's already in place. And that's a
much better starting point than small companies in the U.S. that try to
go from ground zero to a transportation fuel."
In Sweden,
people have been farming seaweed for a long time. "The first thing we do
with the high-quality kelp, we do it for food, actually, "says Fredrik
Grondahl of the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm. He says
selling kelp for food is very profitable.
The researchers don't use the natural populations of
kelp on Catalina Island, but grow their own in a nursery starting from
spores, like this one at the research facility. Anjuli Sastry/NPR
"The next part is to
make feed ingredients," Grondahl adds. "And then we are also extracting
polymers from the kelp to do bioplastics and adhesives and maybe also
textiles." The leftover kelp is turned into biofuel, so the clean energy
aspect is just one of many uses for kelp in Scandinavia.
The
Wrigley Institute scientists don't use natural populations of kelp, but
grow their own in a nursery, starting from spores. They tie the juvenile
kelp to long, white PVC pipes and drop them into the water. Eventually
they hope to create sheets of kelp plants hundreds of yards across.
Ken Nealson, director of the Wrigley Institute, takes us out onto the
water in a boat to see the test site where they've already dropped a
pipe 30 feet below the surface, with small kelp plants sprouting off of
it. Nealson straps on scuba gear and dives down to inspect the project,
while bass and other marine life circle around him.
"What you
see here is the beginning of something that can really revolutionize
bio-fuel production, if it works on a large scale," he explains. "You
can imagine growing enough kelp to supply a percentage of the bioenergy
that's needed in this country."
"Imagine" is the key word here.
This experiment is in its earliest stages. By September, the
researchers hope to put a full-scale kelp elevator in the water. And if
that works, then someday years from now, endless miles of ocean could
one day become farmland. Links
