The Three-Degree World: The Cities That Will Be Drowned By Global Warming

The Guardian

The UN is warning that we are now on course for 3C of global warming. This will ultimately redraw the map of the world

Global temperature change compared to pre-industrial levels

When UN climate negotiators meet for summit talks this month, there will be a new figure on the table: 3C.
Until now, global efforts such as the Paris climate agreement have tried to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels. However, with latest projections pointing to an increase of 3.2C by 2100, these goals seem to be slipping out of reach.
“[We] still find ourselves in a situation where we are not doing nearly enough to save hundreds of millions of people from a miserable future,” said Erik Solheim, the UN environment chief, ahead of the upcoming Bonn conference.
One of the biggest resulting threats to cities around the world is sea-level rise, caused by the expansion of water at higher temperatures and melting ice sheets on the north and south poles.
Scientists at the non-profit organisation Climate Central estimate that 275 million people worldwide live in areas that will eventually be flooded at 3C of global warming.

Asian cities will be worst affected. The regional impact of these changes is highly uneven, with four out of five people affected living in Asia.

Although sea levels will not rise instantaneously, the calculated increases will be “locked in” at a temperature rise of 3C, meaning they will be irreversible even if warming eventually slows down.

Osaka, Japan: 5.2 million people affected
At the end of a month in which it has been battered by unseasonably late typhoons and relentless rain, Japan is already confronting the threat posed by climate change-induced flooding.
Image modelling shows that swaths of Osaka – the commercial heart of a region whose GDP is almost as big as that of the Netherlands – would disappear beneath the water in a 3C world, threatening the local economy and almost a third of the wider region’s 19 million residents.

Millions of people live in the urban area surrounding Osaka. Sea-level rise will reshape densely and sparsely populated areas.

As a result of global sea-level rise, storm surges and other factors, economists project that coastal flooding could put almost $1tn of Osaka’s assets at risk by the 2070s, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“The costs of protecting cities from rising sea levels and storms are also likely to rise - as are the costs of repairing storm damage,” it said. “Decisions we make today could have a profound impact on the security and culture of the people of this ancient city.”
Like much of Japan, Osaka already has a network of seawalls and other coastal defences in place to combat tsunami – although their effectiveness was disputed in the aftermath of the 2011 triple disaster.
Osaka city authorities are investing in other infrastructure to mitigate the effects of flooding, but public education is also vital, according to Toshikazu Nakaaki of the Osaka municipal government’s environment bureau.
“In the past our response was focused on reducing the causes of global warming, but given that climate change is inevitable, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we are now discussing how to respond to the natural disasters that will follow,” Nakaaki said.
“We anticipate that Osaka will be affected by natural disasters caused by climate change, but we have yet to establish exactly what might happen or how much financial damage they would cause.
“It’s not that we expect sea levels to rise at some point in the future – they are already rising.”
Keiko Kanai has long been aware that her home city is susceptible to natural disasters. “I’d heard that historically, tsunamis caused by earthquakes put many parts of Osaka underwater, and I knew that some parts of the world were at risk from rising sea levels,” said Kanai, who teaches at a local university.
“But I didn’t put two and two together. Until now I haven’t given much thought to the idea that Osaka too could be engulfed by rising sea levels.”
Kaori Akazawa, a nursing care consultant, said flooding was a consideration when she was deciding where in Osaka to live.
“When I moved here I talked to my colleagues about the risks,” she said. “That’s why I’ve always rented apartments on the fourth storey or higher.
“It’s worrying, but I’ve never considered moving.”
Justin McCurry in Tokyo

Alexandria, Egypt: 3 million people affected
On the Alexandria Corniche, waves slowly lap at a shoreline dotted with plastic chairs and umbrellas from the beachside cafes. Students perch on the steps of the imposing Alexandria library. But the same coastline that draws locals to its scenic vistas is threatening to slowly engulf the historic city as sea levels rise due to global warming.

The IPCC reported that Alexandria’s beaches would be submerged even with a 0.5-metre sea-level rise, while 8 million people would be displaced by flooding in Alexandria and the Nile Delta if no protective measures are taken. A 3C world threatens far greater damage than that.
Yet for many residents, there is little public information to connect the increasingly chaotic weather and floods with climate change. “The vast majority of Alexandrians don’t have access to knowledge, and that’s what worries me. I don’t expect the government to raise awareness of this problem until it’s already happening,” said 22-year-old student Kareem Mohammed.
“Everyone thinks we should act on this problem 50 or 80 years from now,” agreed his friend, Hazem Hassan, a student in marine biology at the nearby Alexandria University.
Officials maintain that protective measures are being taken, but with little fanfare. “Egypt spends 700m EGP [£30m] annually to protect the north coast,” said Dr Magdy Allam, head of the Arab Environmental Experts Union, who was previously part of the Egyptian environment ministry.
Allam cited the Mohammed Ali sea wall built in 1830 as a key protection, as well as the concrete blocks lining the shoreline designed to “detour flood water away from residential neighbourhoods”. But critics say that this is far from enough given the scale of the problem.
“There are studies indicating that our city is one of many coastal human settlements around the world which will be partially submerged by 2070 if nothing is done,” said Ahmed Hassan, of the Save Alexandria Initiative, a group that works to raise awareness of the effects of climate change on the city.
Ruth Michaelson in Alexandria

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: 1.8 million people affected
Residents of Brazil’s postcard city have plenty of reasons to fear global warming – even if they don’t quite know it. According to Climate Central, a temperature rise of 3C would cause flooding of not just Rio’s famous beaches such as Copacabana and its waterfront domestic airport, but also inland areas of the Barra de Tijuca neighbourhood, where last year’s Olympic Games were held.

Barra is built around a network of heavily polluted lagoons that empty into the sea. The prospect of it being underwater alarmed resident Sueli Gonçalves, 46, who runs pensioners’ health projects, as she and her 23-year-old son Yuri Sanchez carried their shopping past the Olympic Park.
“My God. Oh Jesus,” she said, with a nervous laugh. “I will leave here. I will go to the United States. To Canada.”
The family knew about global warming but were unaware of the potential scale of the impact on their upscale neighbourhood of smart condominiums and a shopping mall.
“Nobody takes it seriously. People do not think long term,” Gonçalves said.
Storm surges recently destroyed hundreds of metres of beachfront pavement overlooking the Macumba beach, a popular surfing spot on Rio’s western fringes. Last year, heavy waves in another storm surge felled an elevated, clifftop cycle path between Leblon beach and Barra de Tijuca which had not been built to survive such high seas, killing two people.
Last year, Rio’s city government and the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro produced a study entitled Strategy for Adapting to Climate Change.
“The current challenge consists in deepening knowledge and monitoring of oceanic phenomena and the evolution of the sea bed and coast,” a spokeswoman for the city’s secretariat of the environment said in an email. An “adaption plan” for climate change produced with professors from the federal university suggested strategies to deal with vulnerabilities in areas such as transport, health and housing. But so far little has been done.
Nara Pinto, 38, who lives in the sprawling Rocinha favela and sells snacks on the pavement overlooking Copacabana beach, said the loss of Rio’s famous beaches would cost a lot of jobs.
“The beach is a tourist point,” she said. “What can be done to stop this?
Dom Phillips in Rio de Janeiro

Shanghai, China: 17.5 million people affected
“Shanghai is completely gone – I’d have to move to Tibet!” says resident Wang Liubin, when he is shown projections for the city after 3C of global warming.
When it comes to flooding, the coastal city is one of the world’s most vulnerable. Now one of the world’s biggest ports, the former fishing village is bordered by the Yangtze river in the north and divided through the middle by the Huangpu river; the municipality involves several islands, two long coastlines, shipping ports, and miles of canals, rivers, and waterways.

In 2012, a report from a team of UK and Dutch scientists declared Shanghai the most vulnerable major city in the world to serious flooding, based on factors such as numbers of people living close to the coastline, time needed to recover from flooding, and measures to prevent floodwater. According to Climate Central projections, 17.5 million people could be displaced by rising waters if global temperatures increase by 3C.
Projections show the vast majority of the city could eventually be submerged in water, including much of the downtown area, landmarks such as the Lujiazui skyline and the historical Bund, both airports, and the entirety of its outlying Chongming Island.
Since 2012, the government has been making steady inroads to tackle the threat, including building China’s largest deepwater drainage system beneath the Suzhou Creek waterway, made up of 15km of pipes to drain rainwater across a 58 sq km area. It has also rolled out a 40bn yuan (£5bn) River Flood Discharge project which will stretch for 120km between Lake Taihu and the Huangpu river to try and mitigate the risk of the upstream lake flooding.
Flood prevention walls are being built along the waterfront – in places so high the river is blocked from view – and 200km more are promised across the city’s outlying districts. Flood controls have been put in place along the famous Bund waterfront, where the walkway has been raised to help counter a flood risk, as well as a series of water controls and dams.
Helen Roxburgh in Shanghai

Miami, US: 2.7 million people affected
Few other cities in the world have as much to lose from rising sea levels as Miami, and the alarm bells sound ever louder with each successive “king tide” that overwhelms coastal defences and sends knee-deep seawater coursing through downtown streets.

Locals consider this the “new normal” in the biggest city of Florida’s largest metropolitan area, which would simply cease to exist with a 3C temperature rise. Even at 2C, forecasts show almost the entire bottom third of Florida – the area south of Lake Okeechobee currently home to more than 7 million people - submerged, with grim projections for the rest of the state in a little more than half a century. In Miami-Dade county alone, almost $15bn of coastal property is at risk of flooding in just the next 15 years.
A sense of urgency is evident at city hall, where commissioners are asking voters to approve a “Miami Forever” bond in the November ballot that includes $192m for upgrading pump stations, improving drainage and raising sea walls.
“We have a really precious city that many people love and are willing to invest in right now, but it’s going to take some funds to protect it,” said Ken Russell, the city commission’s vice-chair.
Last year, the city of Miami appointed sea-rise expert Jane Gilbert into the newly created role of chief resilience officer with instructions for a robust stormwater management plan that also looks at storm surge, such as that from Hurricane Irma in September which brought significant flooding to downtown Brickell and neighbouring Coconut Grove.
Proposals include elevating roads and even abandoning neighbourhoods to the water to protect others.
“We need universal recognition that we’re all in this together, to protect this amazing global city that we’ve become,” she said.
Natalia Ortiz, who grew up in Miami, fears the future. “It’s very scary,” said Ortiz, who works with Cleo, a climate change advocacy group. “My son is 11 and my daughter is nine, so they’re young but I think about their future, will they be able to raise their children in Miami the way I had the luxury of raising mine?”
Richard Luscombe in Miami

Methodology
Flood maps were created using sea-level rise estimates from Climate Central and digital elevation data. Population estimates refer to urban agglomerations which comprise the built-up area of a city and the suburbs linked with it. Maps include OpenStreetMap data.
Temperature projections are based on University of Washington emissions modelling and UN warming estimates. Trajectories have been updated to match latest temperatures as recorded by the Met Office Hadley Centre. Josh Holder, Niko Kommenda and Jonathan Watts

Links

• From Miami to Shanghai: 3C of warming will leave world cities below sea level
• Donald Trump accused of obstructing satellite research into climate change
• Lincolnshire's coast and farms will sink with 3C of warming
• Climate change already bringing disease, air pollution and heatwaves
• Sea levels to rise 1.3m unless coal power ends by 2050, report says
• Ocean acidification is deadly threat to marine life, finds eight-year study

Climate Change: 5 Things To Know About Bonn Climate Summit

ABCNews America - Frank Jordans (Associated Press)

In this Aug. 2, 2017 file photo the exhaust pipes of a VW Diesel car are photographed in Frankfurt, Germany.The UN Climate Change Conference 2017 will take place under Presidency of the Government of Fiji in Bonn, Germany and starts on Monday, Nov. 6, 2017. AP Photo/Michael Probst

Climate change is back on the agenda with a global climate conference kicking off Monday in the German city of Bonn.

Who's coming, what are the key debates about and how green will this meeting be? Five things to know about the U.N. conference known as COP23, which runs from Nov. 6-17.

Who Is Coming To Bonn?

Up to 25,000 people are expected to attend the talks, which will be presided over by Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama of Fiji — the first time that a small island nation will be at the helm of a major international climate conference. Participants will include diplomats from 195 nations, as well as scientists, lobbyists and environmentalists.

The United States, which has announced its intention to pull out of the landmark Paris climate accord, will be represented by Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Thomas Shannon.

Key countries to watch during the talks are the emerging economic powers China and India. Other nations — Estonia, Peru, Ecuador, Iran, Mali, Ethiopia and the Maldives — will also be in the spotlight for leading major international groupings.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other leaders are expected to fly to Bonn toward the end of the summit to give the talks a final push and signal their commitment to fighting climate change.

What Are The Big Climate Change Topics Now?

The 2015 Paris accord set a target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) — or 2 degrees at the most — by the end of the century.

But diplomats didn't agree on the details of how their nations will reach that ambitious goal. The Bonn talks will flesh out the rule book that countries have to abide by.

This includes coming up with international standards for how to measure carbon emissions, to make sure that one nation's efforts can be compare to another's. A second debate centers around how countries take stock of what's been achieved and set new, more ambitious goals for curbing carbon emissions after 2020.

The third big issue concerns money. Experts agree that shifting economies away from fossil fuels and preparing countries for some of the inevitable consequences of climate change will require vast financial resources — including some from the U.S. administration of President Donald Trump, which is doubtful about man-made climate change.

Why Bonn?

Organizing a massive global conference in Fiji would have strained the Pacific nation's resources and posed a travel nightmare for thousands of delegates. Germany offered to host the talks in Bonn, the country's former capital, because it has ample conference space and is already home to the U.N. climate change agency.

Still, they are going to miss the sunshine of Fiji. The weather in Bonn is generally dreary at best in November.

How Green Will The Conference Be?

Germany says the two-week talks will as environmentally friendly as possible. The country is setting aside part of the 117 million euro ($136.3 million) budget for a fleet of bicycles and electric buses to ferry people between venues.

Each participant will receive a bottle to fill with tap water — a move organizers say will save half a million plastic cups.

Germany's environment ministry is also investing in renewable energy projects to compensate for the greenhouse gas emissions caused by people from all over the world flying into Bonn for the talks.

And What About Germany's Coal Usage?

Germany likes to portray itself as a leader in the fight against global warming and Merkel's reputation as the "climate chancellor" is partly built on the pivotal role she played during past negotiations.

But environmentalists note that Germany still gets about 40 percent of its electricity from coal-fired plants — one of the most carbon intensive sources of energy. And German highways are also virtually unique in having no general speed limit, despite the fact that auto emissions rise dramatically at higher speeds.

If prosperous Germany fails to meet its own emissions targets, as current predictions suggest, critics say that would send a bad signal to the rest of the world.

Links

• Thousands march against coal ahead of climate conference in Bonn
• Nations to work on curbing climate change despite Trump
• Assembly of First Nations to have seat at international climate change conference for first time
• Climate change is a threat to rich and poor alike
• Upcoming UN climate change summit in Bonn "most important" since Paris climate: official
• An Inside Look At The U.N. Climate Negotiations In Bonn

‘For Us, The Land Is Sacred’: On The Road With The Defenders Of The World’s Forests

The Guardian - Jonathan Watts

A busload of indigenous leaders have been crossing Europe to highlight their cause before the start of UN climate talks in Bonn

‘Hope, courage and anger’: The Indigenous Guardians of the Forest caravan to Bonn, in front of the French National Assembly in Paris last week. Photograph: Jonathan Watts for the Guardian 

Paris - Of the many thousands of participants at the Bonn climate conference which begins on 6 November, there will arguably be none who come with as much hope, courage and anger as the busload of indigenous leaders who have been criss-crossing Europe over the past two weeks, on their way to the former German capital.
The 20 activists on the tour represent forest communities that have been marginalised over centuries but are now increasingly recognised as important actors against climate change through their protection of carbon sinks.
In the run-up to the United Nations talks, they have been visiting the UK, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Germany, talking to city leaders, environment NGOs and youth groups. Their aim is to build support for their role as forest defenders – a role that frequently puts them odds with agribusiness, mining companies and public security. The Observer caught up with them on the road to Paris.
“We have been looking after the forest for thousands of years. We know how to protect them,” said Candida Dereck Jackson, vice president of the National Indigenous Alliance in Honduras, as she outlined the principal demands of the group: respect for land rights, recognition of crimes against the environment, direct negotiations over forest protection, decriminalisation of indigenous activists, and free, prior and informed consent before any development by outsiders.
In one sense it is part of a battle that first peoples – as many indigenous groups refer to themselves – have been fighting since their territories were colonised hundreds of years ago. But this time the campaign is being waged from a bus – previously used for rock music tours and election campaigns – in the context of growing concern about the climate and environment.
This has provided some overlap with their ancient struggle to retain ancestral land and a different set of values.
Cándido Mezúa of the Mesoamerican Alliance of Peoples and Forests said priorities needed to shift away from outside companies who were threatening forests and towards native communities that supported them.
“We see with great sadness that billions of dollars are invested in agribusiness and the institutions that are behind the crisis we are facing, but there is very little interest in indigenous populations who can help with a solution,” he said at a stop at the Royal Society in London.
This is not just a moral argument. Researchers at the World Resources Institute have found that tenure-secure indigenous forestlands provided significant global carbon benefits. In Bolivia, Brazil and Colombia alone they say this is worth $25bn–$34bn over the next 20 years – equivalent to taking between nine million and 12.6 million passenger vehicles off the roads for a year.
Alain Frechette of the Rights and Resources Institute said this was the most cost-effective way to reduce emissions. “Community-owned land sequesters more carbon, has lower levels of deforestation, greater biodiversity and supports more people than public or privately owned forest,” he told the gathering of indigenous leaders, supporters and journalists.
The contrast with more expensive solutions was apparent at the same venue the previous evening when oil company executives and senior politicians called for hundreds of billions of dollars of spending on carbon capture and storage technology, which – though important – is expected to contribute only 14% of the emissions cuts needed for the 2C target.
Instead of such huge sums, participants in the indigenous caravan say they could contribute more to the fight against climate change if their land rights were recognised and states accepted the concept of crimes against the environment. “Money is not important for indigenous people. What we want, frankly, is for you to leave us alone,” said Mina Setra of the Indigenous Peoples’ Alliance of the Archipelago. “We don’t want to be criminalised for protecting our land.”
Setra exemplifies the pragmatic, media-savvy approach of some in the alliances that represent many of the world’s 370 million indigenous peoples – whose territories contains 20% of the world’s tropical forest carbon. Like other participants on the bus tour – from as far afield as Brazil and Borneo – she says communities who traditionally live in forests have a closer spiritual connection to nature, but she gives short shrift to developed world romanticising.
At a service station on the road to Paris, she evokes laughter with an impersonation of Julia Roberts playing the role of Mother Nature in the film Nature Is Speaking, intoning “Nature doesn’t need humans, humans need nature”, then switches back to her own voice to proclaim: “Bullshit!”
Indigenous activists want a place at the climate negotiating table. At Copenhagen and other previous conferences, they were often treated as an exotic and sometimes disruptive diversion who turned up for photos in traditional dress but were given scant opportunity to participate.
This is changing, albeit slowly. The 2015 Paris Accord recognised the contribution of indigenous knowledge in dealing with climate change. This was the most prominent mention until now of their role, though it failed to endorse their land rights. First peoples have, in turn, reversed their position on Redd+, a programme of talks that aims to boost financing of forest carbon sinks.
There is less sign of compromise outside climate talks. Indigenous groups are often locked in land disputes, targeted in assassinations or criminalised by justice systems for resisting forest clearance to make way for cattle ranches, mines and government infrastructure.
As the bus speeds along the motorway, Mark Rivas – a Miskito from Nicaragua – gazes out of the window at the grey skies and peaceful farmlands of northern Europe and reflects on the very different situation in his community. Seven Miskito have been killed so far this year for opposing a land grab by ranchers, he says, but none of the killers have been brought to justice. He too – like many others on the bus – has been threatened. “On this trip, I want to make these problems more visible and get outside pressure on the Nicaraguan government to ensure our land titles are fully recognised,” he says. “This is a climate issue. We don’t want to give up the land so the forest can be cleared by ranchers. For us it’s sacred.”
There is some recognition of this in senior levels of government. In Paris, the indigenous leaders met the French ecology minister Nicolas Hulot – who moved from journalism to activism to politics and played a key role in the Paris Accord of 2015. He said the role of indigenous leaders was important, and not just at the Bonn talks. “They are perhaps the only people who can remind us how man has alienated himself from nature. They can bring a conscience and soul that modern society can aspire to,” he said.
Hulot said he would ask President Emmanuel Macron to invite the indigenous leaders to a summit in France next year, when progress towards the Paris Accord goals will be assessed.
But beyond fine-sounding generalities, participants on the bus said they would be looking for concrete steps – particularly on the question of a planned gold and titanium mine in French Guiana that is opposed by the country’s indigenous groups.
Jocelyn Therese of the Kalina people, said the open cast pit would be blasted out of forested land between two indigenous reserves, polluting the rivers and requiring the construction of a hydroelectric dam. He has appealed to Macron to intervene. “We want support that will enable us to manage the forests as the base for our economy, rather than mining,” Therese said.
Whether the French president listens is another matter. In the capitals of Europe and the US, commercial interests have trumped indigenous and environmental concerns for centuries. This is what funded the construction of the grand capitals of the Old World that the caravan participants have seen this month – some for the first time.
Rivas – the quiet young man from Nicaragua – is underwhelmed. “All the death and destruction that came to our country came from Europe,” he said. “I sense people still have a superficial understanding of our message. What we want is to be able to continue our spiritual connection with the forest.”

Links

• UN Climate Change Conference - November 2017
• Assembly of First Nations to have seat at international climate change conference for first time
• Invest in forests and indigenous people to fight climate change - experts
• Will Indigenous Knowledge Help Humanity to Step Back from the Climate Change Brink?
• Multicultural and Intergenerational Grassroots Delegation Plans Direct Action at Climate Change Convention
• Survival Of Forests Vital For Reaching Climate Change Goals – OpEd
• Uprooted by Climate Change: Responding to the growing risk of displacement
• Alaska creating team to recommend climate change response
• The three-degree world: the cities that will be drowned by global warming

Palaszczuk Says She Will Veto Federal Adani Loan As She Accuses LNP Of 'Smear'

The Guardian - Joshua Robertson

Queensland premier says the LNP ‘intends to smear me and my partner’ over his work for PwC on Adani’s application for funding through Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility

Annastacia Palaszczuk, campaigning with deputy premier Jackie Trad on Friday. The Queensland premier has accused the LNP of intending to smear her. Photograph: Darren England/AAP

The Queensland government will veto Adani’s application for a $1bn commonwealth loan to build a rail line for its massive Carmichael mine, Annastacia Palaszczuk has said.
Palaszczuk said the dramatic move, amid her campaign for re-election, came in response to what she believed was a federal Coalition plan to “smear” her and her partner, Shaun Drabsch, over his role in Adani’s loan application to the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (Naif).
As the government is in caretaker mode, any move to veto the loan would need bipartisan support.
The move will be a heavy blow to the Indian mining giant’s attempt to win finance in China for the controversial coalmine, but puts the state Labor government on the right side of opinion polls on the issue.
Palaszczuk has accused some in the federal government of breaching commercial in confidence obligations around Naif to try to sabotage her campaign.
But the upshot of the rumours is that Palaszczuk has discovered she unwittingly had a perceived conflict of interest because her partner worked on an Adani loan bid her government may have been asked to sign off on.
Palaszczuk said she learned on Tuesday of “a rumour circulating among LNP senators” about Drabsch’s work as managing partner for PwC, which helped Adani with its Naif loan application.
“I am told they planned to use this during the election campaign to impugn my character and suggest something untoward,” she said.
Drabsch was involved in PwC’s work for Adani and its bid for the federal loan but she did not know this until after the rumour arose this week, Palaszczuk said.
Palaszczuk sought the advice of the Queensland integrity commissioner, who told her “a reasonable member of the public, properly informed” would perceive she now had a conflict of interest.
Palaszczuk said she now wanted to “remove doubt about any perception of conflict” by notifying the prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, that “my government will exercise its ‘veto’ to not support the Naif loan”.
The premier said she had kept a 2015 election promise that “not one cent of taxpayers’ money would go to this company” and stopped the former LNP government “gifting $500m of taxpayers’ money to Adani” through a state loan for its Carmichael rail line.

Fact v fiction: Adani's Carmichael coal mine – video explainer

Palaszczuk said her announcement on Friday in Brisbane would be the first Adani was hearing of her decision. She will ask LNP leader Tim Nicholls to endorse her decision.
If Nicholls refuses, the issue of enabling federal financing for Adani will likely become the decisive dividing issue for Labor and LNP in the Queensland campaign until polling day on 25 November.
Labor strategists believe voters in regional Queensland who support the mine - and whom the party needs to win over to retain power - will not feel so strongly about taxpayer support being withdrawn.
“In terms of the project itself, Adani representatives have been on the public record numerous times indicating that they do not need Naif to proceed with this project,” Palaszczuk said.
“Malcolm Turnbull can still give taxpayers’ money to Adani if he wants to, but I won’t stand for his LNP operatives trying to smear my good name.”
Palaszczuk said she still supported the project and jobs for north Queensland but “I do acknowledge many Queenslanders have concerns about the potential for the federal government providing a loan to Adani”.
She released the integrity commissioner’s advice, which said it could be perceived that Palaszczuk “may personally benefit” from influencing decisions in favour of Drabsch or against rival Naif contenders.
The integrity commissioner, Nikola Stepanov, told Palaszczuk her conflict arose through her role in the government’s Cabinet Budget Review Committee (CBRC) – the state’s “approving authority” to execute Naif loans – and Drabsch’s business dealings.
The premier’s move to veto the loan goes well beyond the strongly “preferred option” recommended by Stepanov – that Palaszczuk declare a conflict of interest and exclude herself from CBRC discussions and decisions on Naif projects.
Palaszczuk also released letters in 2015 showing the integrity commissioner raised no concerns about her ethical position when Drabsch joined PWC to advise on infrastructure projects at a federal but not state level.
Palaszczuk said Drabsch had kept his work on the Adani application from May 2016 a secret from her under his “commercial-in-confidence” obligations.
“Shaun has always told me he’s worked at PwC, working on infrastructure, and that is it,” she said.
The only people who knew were PwC and Naif, and of course the Naif reports to the federal government,” Palaszczuk said.
“I understand LNP senators were seeking to use this as a smear against me in the middle of an election campaign.”
Palaszczuk’s chief of staff David Barbagallo told her on Tuesday that he had, after becoming aware of “rumours being circulated by LNP senators in Canberra”, confirmed that Drabsch worked on the Adani bid.
Palaszczuk said the LNP senators “obviously” sought to “break that commercial in confidence” around Drabsch, saying the extent of knowledge about this was a matter for both Turnbull and Nicholls to address.
“What does that say about the federal government when they are breaching commercial in confidence arrangements between a company and the federal government?”
Efforts to discredit her would involve “trying to allege there was a massive conflict of interest and seeking to tear down my position as premier of this state and tear down my integrity and honesty”, she said.
“I’m putting on the record every step I have taken and to put beyond any doubt about this, we will veto that loan.
“I entered politics to make a change, I actually want to make a change to people’s lives, not to be smeared at.
“And this sort of level of politics, I think the public find truly and utterly disgusting, as I do.”
Federal resources minister Matt Canavan was quoted by the ABC as saying the Queensland government had been “all over the shop on Adani”.
“Last year, they wrote to the Commonwealth Government suggesting that we look at funding the Adani rail line through the NAIF. Then, in May this year, the Deputy Premier, Jackie Trad, said the Labor Government wouldn’t participate in any NAIF loan to the Adani project, which would effectively block federal funding. The next day, Treasurer Curtis Pitt contradicted her, saying the Labor Government’s position was to support Adani being funded by NAIF, he was quoted as saying.
“This is a circus, and it puts thousands of people’s real jobs and real businesses at risk.”
The Guardian has been told the state Labor government was first warned by federal colleagues weeks ago that the LNP planned to raise in federal parliament allegations about a conflict of interest involving a Queensland minister. It was not clear at the time this was Palaszczuk.
The Queensland government does not assess Naif loans but can veto them by objecting at both a project’s “due diligence” and “investment decision and execution” stages.
Labor was first pressed on its veto power over the Adani loan when activists and others, including Greens Maiwar candidate and environmental lawyer Michael Berkman, raised it earlier this year.
The state government had previously refused to contemplate its veto power. Strategists within Labor judged that - even while polls show a majority in the state and nationwide oppose Adani receiving the government loan – supporting the project was a critical step to retaining marginal seats in regional Queensland, especially Townsville.

Links

• Why Adani's planned Carmichael coalmine matters to Australia – and the world
• Palaszczuk refutes claim report backs case for new coal-fired power
• Anti-Adani protests dog Palaszczuk's regional Queensland campaign
• Barnaby Joyce condemns Queensland's refusal to process federal loan for Adani rail line
• Adani mine: Palaszczuk faces factional fight to seal new royalties deal
• Adani offered $320m deferment of Carmichael coal export royalties

Climate Change 'Will Create World's Biggest Refugee Crisis'

The Guardian - Matthew Taylor

Experts warn refugees could number tens of millions in the next decade, and call for a new legal framework to protect the most vulnerable

Successive droughts, like those seen in sub-Saharan Africa, could cause millions to migrate to Europe. Photograph: Peter Caton/Tearfund

Tens of millions of people will be forced from their homes by climate change in the next decade, creating the biggest refugee crisis the world has ever seen, according to a new report.
Senior US military and security experts have told the Environmental Justice Foundation (EJF) study that the number of climate refugees will dwarf those that have fled the Syrian conflict, bringing huge challenges to Europe.
“If Europe thinks they have a problem with migration today … wait 20 years,” said retired US military corps brigadier general Stephen Cheney. “See what happens when climate change drives people out of Africa – the Sahel [sub-Saharan area] especially – and we’re talking now not just one or two million, but 10 or 20 [million]. They are not going to south Africa, they are going across the Mediterranean.”
The study published on Thursday calls on governments to agree a new legal framework to protect climate refugees and, ahead of next week’s climate summit in Germany, urges leaders to do more to implement the targets set out in the Paris climate agreement.
Sir David King, the former chief scientific adviser to the UK government, told the EJF: “What we are talking about here is an existential threat to our civilisation in the longer term. In the short term, it carries all sorts of risks as well and it requires a human response on a scale that has never been achieved before.”

The report argues that climate change played a part in the build up to the Syrian war, with successive droughts causing 1.5 million people to migrate to the country’s cities between 2006 and 2011. Many of these people then had no reliable access to food, water or jobs.
“Climate change is the the unpredictable ingredient that, when added to existing social, economic and political tensions, has the potential to ignite violence and conflict with disastrous consequences,” said EJF executive director, Steve Trent.
“In our rapidly changing world climate change – and its potential to trigger both violent conflict and mass migration – needs to be considered as an urgent priority for policymakers and business leaders alike.”
Although the report highlights to growing impact of climate change on people in the Middle East and Africa, it says changing weather patterns – like the hurricanes that devastated parts of the US this year – prove richer nations are not immune from climate change.
But Trent said that although climate change undoubtedly posed an “existential threat to our world” it was not to late to take decisive action.
“By taking strong ambitious steps now to phase out greenhouse gas emissions and building an international legal mechanism to protect climate refugees we will protect the poorest and most vulnerable in our global society, build resilience, reap massive economic benefits and build a safe and secure future for our planet. Climate change will not wait. Neither can we. For climate refugees, tomorrow is too late.”

Links

• Climate change made Lucifer heatwave far more likely, scientists find
• From heatwaves to hurricanes, floods to famine: seven climate change hotspots
• Climate change: ‘human fingerprint’ found on global extreme weather
• Europe faces droughts, floods and storms as climate change accelerates
• Climate change will stir 'unimaginable' refugee crisis, says military
• Agriculture and overuse greater threats to wildlife than climate change – study
• Statue of Liberty and Venice among sites at risk from climate change, says UN
• French minister warns of mass climate change migration if world doesn't act

U.S. Report Says Humans Cause Climate Change, Contradicting Top Trump Officials

New York Times - Lisa Friedman | Glenn Thrush

Smoke rose from trees burned in a wildfire in Wrightwood, Calif., last year. A report from 13 federal agencies says extreme weather events have cost the United States $1.1 trillion since 1980. Credit Jonathan Alcorn/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

WASHINGTON — Directly contradicting much of the Trump administration’s position on climate change, 13 federal agencies unveiled an exhaustive scientific report on Friday that says humans are the dominant cause of the global temperature rise that has created the warmest period in the history of civilization.
Over the past 115 years global average temperatures have increased 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, leading to record-breaking weather events and temperature extremes, the report says. The global, long-term warming trend is “unambiguous,” it says, and there is “no convincing alternative explanation” that anything other than humans — the cars we drive, the power plants we operate, the forests we destroy — are to blame.
The report was approved for release by the White House, but the findings come as the Trump administration is defending its climate change policies. The United Nations convenes its annual climate change conference next week in Bonn, Germany, and the American delegation is expected to face harsh criticism over President Trump’s decision to walk away from the 195-nation Paris climate accord and top administration officials’ stated doubts about the causes and impacts of a warming planet.
“This report has some very powerful, hard-hitting statements that are totally at odds with senior administration folks and at odds with their policies,” said Philip B. Duffy, president of the Woods Hole Research Center. “It begs the question, where are members of the administration getting their information from? They’re obviously not getting it from their own scientists.”
While there were pockets of resistance to the report in the Trump administration, according to climate scientists involved in drafting the report, there was little appetite for a knockdown fight over climate change among Mr. Trump’s top advisers, who are intensely focused on passing a tax reform bill — an effort they think could determine the fate of his presidency.
The climate science report is part of a congressionally mandated review conducted every four years known as the National Climate Assessment. The product of hundreds of experts within the government and academia and peer-reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences, it is considered the United States’ most definitive statement on climate change science.

Read the Full Climate Science Special Report
“It is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century,” the report states.

“The climate has changed and is always changing,” Raj Shah, a White House spokesman, said in the statement. “As the Climate Science Special Report states, the magnitude of future climate change depends significantly on ‘remaining uncertainty in the sensitivity of Earth’s climate’” to greenhouse gas emissions, he added.
Despite the scientific consensus presented in the report, the Environmental Protection Agency has scrubbed references to climate change from its website and barred its scientists from presenting scientific reports on the subject.
The E.P.A. administrator, Scott Pruitt, has said carbon dioxide is not a primary contributor to warming. Rick Perry, the energy secretary, asserted Wednesday that “the science is out” on whether humans cause climate change.
Their agencies referred questions to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversaw the research.
The report has provoked consternation in scientific circles for months. Though the study has been in the works since 2015, several scientists said the election of Mr. Trump, who has labeled climate change a “canard” and appointed cabinet members who disputed the scientific consensus, caused them to worry the report would be blocked or buried.
That did not happen. Scientists who worked on the report said none of the 13 agencies that reviewed it tried to undermine its findings or change its wording.
“I’m quite confident to say there has been no political interference on the message,” said David Fahey, a NOAA scientist and a lead author of the report. “Whatever fears we had weren’t realized.”
Responsibility for approving the report fell to Gary D. Cohn, director of the National Economic Council, who generally believes in the validity of climate science and thought the issue would have been a distraction from the tax push, according to an administration official with knowledge of the situation.

Phoenix experienced record highs in June. The report says there are “no convincing alternative explanations” other than human activity to account for rising global temperatures. Credit Ralph Freso/Getty Images

One of Mr. Cohn’s top policy deputies, Michael Catanzaro, had the authority to block, delay or change the report. But Mr. Catanzaro, a former energy adviser to President George W. Bush and former Speaker John A. Boehner, chose instead to follow the lead of the Obama administration by referring the report back to more than a dozen federal agencies for feedback.
That review, according to two people familiar with the process, went relatively smoothly, surprising some scientists who worked on the report who had expected more resistance.
The only significant turbulence, according to one person familiar with the process, came from a midlevel political appointee at the Department of Energy who grilled the report’s authors on changes that had been made to temperature and other climate data over the years. The authors responded by adding a more detailed explanation of their methodology and all of the agencies then gave their approval, the person said.
Mr. Trump was barely aware of the report’s existence, several White House officials said.
Some critics of climate change science attacked the report as the product of holdovers from the Obama administration and chastised the Trump administration for allowing it to be published.
“I’m saddened that they have decided they will let the permanent government, the civil servants, continue down this road without supervision,” said Myron Ebell, director of global warming policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a libertarian advocacy group.

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Scientists said the report’s findings were clear.
“This new report simply confirms what we already knew. Human-caused climate change isn’t just a theory, it’s reality,” said Michael E. Mann, a professor of atmospheric science at Pennsylvania State University. “Whether we’re talking about unprecedented heat waves, increasingly destructive hurricanes, epic drought and inundation of our coastal cities, the impacts of climate change are no longer subtle. They are upon us. That’s the consensus of our best scientists, as laid bare by this latest report.”
The report says the Earth has set temperature highs for three years running, and six of the last 17 years are the warmest years on record for the globe. Weather catastrophes from floods to hurricanes to heat waves have cost the United States $1.1 trillion since 1980, and the report warns that such phenomena may become common.
“The frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events are virtually certain to increase in the future as global temperature increases,” the report notes. “Extreme precipitation events will very likely continue to increase in frequency and intensity throughout most of the world.”
In the United States, the report finds that every part of the country has been touched by warming, from droughts in the Southeast to flooding in the Midwest to a worrying rise in air and ground temperatures in Alaska, and conditions will continue to worsen.
“This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century,” the report states. “For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence.”
The findings, other researchers said, create an unusual situation in which the government’s policies are in direct opposition to the science it is producing.
“This profoundly affects our ability to be leaders in developing new technologies and understanding how to build successful communities and businesses in the 21st century,” said Christopher Field, director of the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment. “Choosing to be dumb about our relationship with the natural world is choosing to be behind the eight ball.”

Links

• What the Climate Report Says About the Impact of Global Warming
• Scientists Fear Trump Will Dismiss Blunt Climate Report
• Trump Team to Promote Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Power at Bonn Climate Talks
• 52 Environmental Rules on the Way Out Under Trump
• From Heat Waves to Hurricanes: What We Know About Extreme Weather and Climate Change

Punk Rocker Patti Smith Says We've 'Raped And Pillaged' The Planet Ahead Of Climate Change Benefit Concert

New York Daily News - Spencer Dukoff

Patti Smith doesn't know what she'd say to President Trump about climate change because she has doubts that he has "a core." (Jason Davis/Getty Images for NAMM) 

Rocker Patti Smith was just a kid when she first became aware that humans were wreaking havoc on the environment.
"I'd go to play by a stream near my house when I was young and it would be all filled with weird oil and dead minnows," Smith told the Daily News. "I would ask my father what happened, and he'd say, 'I don't know, something is seeping through the ground. Somebody is dumping something.'"

In addition to being a punk legend and celebrated author, Patti Smith is a lifelong activist. (Michael Buckner/Getty Images for BFCA)

Smith rattles off memory after memory of factors that contributed to the punk legend's rising consciousness as a climate change activist.
"In my lifetime, I've seen how our world is changing," she says. "The beautiful glaciers that I saw, and friends of mine took photographs of 25 years ago in Greenland, are now 60% melted away. They look just like tortured skeletons instead of these beautiful, magnificent floating sculptures."
Smith, 70, was born in Chicago, but later lived in Philadelphia and different parts of New Jersey as a child, where she had another disturbing experience.
"I saw my first really horrendous dump site when I was about 10," Smith says. "I lived in rural South Jersey and there was a lot of illegal dumping. I saw how beautiful areas were being destroyed by all this dumping."
"We're given the Earth and it's beautiful, and we've just raped and pillaged it," she added.

On Sunday, Smith will join other artists like R.E.M.'s Michael Stipe, Joan Baez and Flea of Red Hot Chili Peppers, as well as environmentalists like Bill McKibben at Carnegie Hall for Pathway to Paris: Concert to Fight Climate Change.

The effects of climate change around the world. VIEW GALLERY

Pathway to Paris, a group of artists, activists, academics, musicians and politicians who "fight for climate justice," was founded by musicians Rebecca Foon and Jesse Paris Smith, who also happens to be Smith's daughter.
Foon believes that addressing climate change is a matter of life or death.
"Can we do it fast enough so we can be able to survive? And if we can, that means we’ve gotten to the crux of this issue and are a more enlightened species," Foon told the Daily News.
While Smith has participated in previous Pathway to Paris events, she feels a greater sense of urgency with this year's concert given the Trump administration's embrace of climate change skepticism and the President's June announcement that the U.S. would withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
"It goes right up to the top in America," Smith said. "We have a terrible person in the EPA. We have an administration that seems to have a completely deaf ear to any environmental concerns."
When asked what she would say to President Trump about climate change if given the chance, Smith isn't sure she — or anyone — could be persuasive with him.

Smith points to melting glaciers as evidence that climate change is a dire issue for the planet. (Mario Tama/Getty Images) 

"Despite all the detestable things, the embarrassing things, does he actually have a core?" Smith wondered. "And what frightens me is I don't believe he actually has one. So it's hard for me to answer when I feel in my heart that I wouldn't be talking to a real person."
But regardless of Trump's personal beliefs and policies, Smith asserts that progress starts with individual citizens, and that it's her responsibility as an artist to use her platform for advocacy.
"When my husband and I wrote, 'People Have the Power,' it's what we meant," Smith said, referencing her late husband Fred "Sonic" Smith and their 1988 single. "The people vote, the people protest, the people en masse have to make a change."
Pathway to Paris first started in 2014 as a small concert at (Le) Poisson Rouge in Greenwich Village, but has since grown to a global initiative that partners with the United Nations Development Program and international environmental group 350.org to help turn the Paris Agreement into action.

Patti Smith performs at Pathway to Paris at Le Trianon, Paris, in 2015. (MARTIN BUREAU/AFP/Getty Images) 

Sunday's event will feature the unveiling of a new Pathway to Paris campaign, 1000 Cities, which seeks to get 1000 cities worldwide to pledge to transition off fossil fuels and move to 100% renewable energy by 2040.

Links

• NYC rally calls for climate change action 5 years after Sandy
• NYC junior ambassadors from city schools out to change world
• Climate change missing from new Interior Dept. strategy: report
• EPA cancels appearance of scientists at Rhode Island event