Although President Trump has sought to roll back
the Clean Power Plan, the move is in the proposed rule stage and has not
been been implemented by the Environmental Protection Agency. Until it
is a final regulation, courts may not have room to rule on the
litigation. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Two children sued President Trump and members of his Cabinet on
Monday for rolling back federal regulations meant to curb the effects of
climate change.
The lawsuit was filed on the behalf of two Pennsylvania children in
federal district court by a group called the Clean Air Council in
Philadelphia.
“We will not stand idly by while President Trump and his agencies
raze crucial environmental protections, ignore climate science, dispute
well-documented facts and force future generations of Americans to
suffer the consequences of this administration’s reckless choices and
ignorant policies,” said Joseph Minott, the Clean Air Council's
executive director and counsel.
The lawsuit says the administration's reasons for rolling back the
climate rules are baseless and that the court should rule immediately to
stop the administration's efforts.
The "rollbacks" of the regulations would "increase the frequency
and/or intensity of the life-threatening effects of climate change,”
including hurricanes such as Irene and Sandy, according to Minott and
the Clean Air Council. One of the two children in the suit says he or
she was harmed by Sandy. The other child is affected by asthma.
“We must hold the federal government accountable for the long-term
environmental harm that is propagating under its direction," Minott
said. "It’s time to fight back.”
The primary climate regulation that Trump is rolling back is the
Obama administration's Clean Power Plan, the centerpiece of former
President Barack Obama's climate change agenda.
The lawsuit is similar to another one filed by Our Children's Trust
this year representing 21 young people against Trump for "perpetuating
climate chaos."
Although the president has sought to roll back the Clean Power Plan,
the move is in the proposed rule stage and has not been been implemented
by the Environmental Protection Agency. Until it is a final regulation,
the federal court may not have room to rule on the litigation.
Nevertheless, the earlier case with Our Children's Trust is scheduled to go to court Feb. 5.
Monday's lawsuit is part a number of actions planned this week to
protest the Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the Paris
climate change deal as U.N. climate negotiations opened in Bonn, Germany
on Monday.
Groups of protesters called the U.S. People's Delegation will arrive
in Bonn beginning Saturday "to counter the Trump Administration’s fossil
fuel agenda and to hold U.S. states, cities, businesses and the public
accountable to commitments to climate action."
Groups of states and cities are participating in the COP23 U.N.
climate change talks now that the federal government plans to leave the
deal.
The talks in Bonn extend from Nov. 5 to Nov. 17.
Toronto Star - Nick Perry (Associated Press) Fiji and other Pacific island nations are vulnerable to rising seas that have flooded villages and forced residents to abandon their homes.
Sailosi Ramatu looks over the sea at his
old village Vunidogoloa in Fiji. In 2014, the entire village moved
inland in what the government described as a pioneering relocation
project driven by global warming.(Eroni Valili / The Associated Press)
WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND—Each time the ocean
surged through their coastal Fijian village, residents would use rafts
to move from house to house. They watched crops die as saltwater
contaminated the soil. Finally, in 2014, the entire village of
Vunidogoloa moved inland in what the government described as a
pioneering relocation project driven by global warming.
Starting Monday, Fiji will preside over a UN climate change
summit in Bonn, Germany. Fiji and other Pacific island nations are
particularly vulnerable to rising seas and changing weather and want the
world to understand their plight. While Fiji doesn’t face an
existential threat like some of its Pacific neighbours, it is already
battling the effects of climate change.
Sailosi Ramatu, the
57-year-old headman of Vunidogoloa village on Vanua Levu island, said he
felt deep sadness the day the 130 villagers had to leave their homes.
Most were subsistence fishermen. Some, in their 80s and 90s, had lived
there their entire lives.
“I can’t explain those last moments,”
Ramatu said. “There were people living in their old houses, crying,
alone. They looked back at their homes; they looked back at the village.
It was the last time they’d see the village before moving to their new
homes.”
Three years later, Ramatu said moving was
their only option. He said their new location means they can now grow
crops without fearing they will be destroyed. He said the new village
has given the children hope and a chance at a future.
The headman
said the 30-minute walk to the old village and the ocean beyond hasn’t
stopped villagers from continuing their tradition of fishing.
Government
information officer Nemani Turagaiviu said the old village occasionally
flooded throughout its history, but the problem got progressively worse
after about the year 2000.
He said the village began flooding
once a month on every full moon, and would get swamped in storms. He
said the government formed a partnership with locals to build the new
village, and that other vulnerable villages in Fiji have been moved
since.
“All throughout their lives, people had been born and
brought up in the old village, and for some people, the move was very
difficult to accept,” Turagaiviu said. “Since then, life has moved on,
and they have adapted.”
Ramatu said he now understands the
destructive force of climate change. He said he has a simple message for
the leaders in Bonn: “We all need help.”
The governments,
scientists and industry groups gathering in Germany are trying to hammer
out technical rules on monitoring emissions, after the historic Paris
climate accord to mitigate global warming came into effect last year.
But
the accord was dealt a blow this year when U.S President Donald Trump
said he’d withdraw from the agreement. Other countries have pledged to
press on regardless.
Fiji’s government says it has recorded
sea-level rises larger than the global average, making portions of the
nation uninhabitable. It says warmer weather is also increasing the
susceptibility of its people to outbreaks of viral diseases.
Fijian authorities also expect storms to become more frequent and powerful as the climate changes. Last year, Cyclone Winston ripped through Fiji with winds of up to 285 km/h, killing 44 people and destroying thousands of homes.
Fijian
Prime Minister Voreqe Bainimarama, who will preside over the Bonn
summit, has offered to take in the entire populations of neighbouring
Pacific nations Kiribati and Tuvalu if climate change makes those
low-lying countries uninhabitable.
In an address to Fiji’s people
last week, Bainimarama said he was taking a team of 50 to Bonn and would
make sure to stamp the famous Fijian “Bula Spirit” on those attending.
Germany says it expects up to 25,000 people at the summit.
Bula is
a ubiquitous greeting in Fiji that is often accompanied by a smile. For
many, it symbolizes the friendliness of the island nation.
Bainimarama
said his team was leaving the Pacific “to embark on the most important
mission we have ever undertaken as a nation for the entire world.”
A fireman tackles one of the wildfires that swept through parts of California in October.
Jim Urquhart/Reuters
The year isn’t over yet, but we can already be sure that 2017 will be
among the hottest years on record for the globe. While the global
average surface temperature won’t match what we saw in 2016,
it is now very likely that it will be one of the three warmest years on
record, according to a statement issued by the World Meteorological
Organization.
IMAGE
What is more remarkable is that this year’s warmth comes without a boost from El Niño.
When an El Niño brings warm waters to the tropical east Pacific, we see
a transfer of heat from the ocean to the lower atmosphere, which can
raise the global average temperatures recorded at the surface by an
extra 0.1-0.2℃. But this year’s temperatures have been high even in the
absence of this phenomenon.
We can already say with confidence that 2017 will end up being the
warmest non-El Niño year on record, and that it will be warmer than any
year before 2015. The average global temperature between January to
September this year was roughly 1.1℃ warmer than the pre-industrial
average.
This trend is associated with increased greenhouse gas
concentrations, and this year we have seen record high global
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and the biggest recorded surge in CO₂ levels.
A year of extremes
Of course, none of us experiences the global average temperature, so
we also care about local extreme weather. This year has already seen
plenty of extremes.
Global sea ice extent continues to decline.NASA Earth Observatory
At the poles we’ve seen a continuation of the global trend towards
reduced sea ice extent. On February 13, global sea ice extent reached
its lowest point on record,
amid a record low winter for Arctic ice. Since then the Arctic sea ice
extent has become less unusual but it still remains well below the
satellite-era average. Antarctic sea ice extent also remains low but is
no longer at record low levels as it was in February and March of this year.
East Africa saw continued drought with failure of the long rains,
coupled with political instability, leading to food insecurity and
population displacement, particularly in Somalia.
Storms and fires
This year also saw a very active North Atlantic hurricane season.
Parts of the southern United States and the Caribbean were struck by
major hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma, and Maria, and are still recovering from the effects.
IMAGE
Other parts of the globe have seen a quieter year for tropical cyclones.
There have also been several notable wildfire outbreaks around the world this year. In Western Europe, record June heat and very dry conditions gave rise to severe fires in Portugal. This was followed by more severe fires across Spain and Portugal in October.
Parts of California also experienced severe fires following a wet winter, which promoted plant growth, and then a hot dry summer.
Australia is now gearing up for what is forecast to be a worse-than-average fire season after record winter daytime temperatures. A potential La Niña forming in the Pacific and recent rains in eastern Australia may reduce some of the bushfire risk.
The overall message
So what conclusions can we draw from this year’s extreme weather?
It’s certainly clear that humans are warming the climate and increasing
the chances of some of the extreme weather we’ve seem in 2017. In
particular, many of this year’s heatwaves and hot spells have already been linked to human-caused climate change.
For other events the human influence is harder to determine. For
example, the human fingerprint on East Africa’s drought is uncertain. It
is also hard to say exactly how climate change is influencing tropical
cyclones, beyond the fact that their impact is likely to be made worse
by rising sea levels.
For much of 2017’s extreme weather, however, we can say that it is an indicator of what’s to come. Links
The Guardian - Fiona Harvey Hosts Fiji will be aiming to build transparency and constructive dialogue – and this will be crucial to successfully ratcheting up the tough climate targets sidestepped at Paris
Frank Bainimarama (L), prime minister of Fiji and host of the Bonn talks, meets with Ambassador Aziz Mekouar of Morrocco.
Photograph: James Dowson/UNFCCC
Talanoa is a Fijian term for discussions aimed at building consensus,
airing differences constructively, and finding ways to overcome
difficulties or embark on new projects. It is one of the building blocks
of Fijian society, used for centuries to foster greater understanding
among a people distributed over many small islands, and carry them
through a tough existence.
This week, talanoa comes to Europe, and the rest of the world. Fiji
is hosting the UN’s climate talks, following on from the landmark Paris
agreement of 2015, and will hold the conference in Bonn, Germany. Talanoa will be the founding principle of the conference,
the means by which Fiji hopes to break through some of the seemingly
intractable problems that have made these 20-plus years of negotiations a
source of bitter conflict.
“Talanoa is a process of inclusive, participatory and transparent
dialogue that builds empathy and leads to decision-making for the
collective good,” said Frank Bainimarama, prime minister of Fiji.
“It is not about finger pointing and laying blame but about listening
to each other. By focusing on the benefits of action [against climate
change] this process will move the global climate agenda forward.”
The most likely subject of finger-pointing will be Donald Trump. The US president this summer announced the withdrawal of the US from the Paris agreement.
This was a blow to the 194 other countries which signed up to the 2015
accord, because the US is the world’s second biggest emitter of fossil
fuels, after China.
Michael Bloomberg, the former Republican mayor of New York, said
Trump’s White House did not speak for the rest of the US. “[This week]
I’ll help lead a delegation of US mayors, governors and CEOs and we will
deliver a unified message: Americans remain committed to meeting our
commitment under the Paris agreement, no matter what happens in
Washington. We can get there.”
Donald Trump announces his decision to withdraw the US from the Paris
accord on 1 June 2017. Photograph: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images
Yet the divisions likely to be caused by Trump’s stance should not be
underestimated. Gaining a consensus involving the US and China was
arguably the biggest achievement of Paris – the first time that all
developed and developing countries had signed a pact vowing to limit
global warming to 2C, which scientists say is the limit of safety. The
history of the UN negotiations has been littered with attempts at such
an agreement that fell short – the Kyoto protocol of 1997, the
Copenhagen conference of 2009 – so when the gavel came down on the Paris agreement,
it was an unparalleled landmark in the history of the world’s fight
against climate change. The negotiations under the UN on a global
agreement have been going on since 1992. Meanwhile, the concentrations
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have steadily increased, reaching levels not seen for 800,000 years.
At
Bonn, Trump’s team are reportedly preparing to inflame the talks yet
further, by concentrating on the supposed benefits of coal-fired power.
Fiji hopes to confine the White House’s activities to a sideshow.
There are two substantive issues to be discussed at this conference,
which will carry on whatever the US position is. First is the “ratchet” –
the means by which the pledges on emissions made at Paris will be
increased in future years, in line with scientific advice. Second, and
of huge importance to the hosts, is the question of adaptation to the
effects of climate change. Adaptation
was long a dirty word at climate change conferences. Civil society
groups feared that espousing, and devoting money to, the means of
staving off the worst effects of warming – walls against sea level rises, dykes and floating houses,
changes to agriculture to grow heat-adapted crops – would distract
attention from the urgent business of reducing emissions. For Fiji and
other Pacific islands, however, the effects of climate change are
already being felt, and finding ways to reduce their impact will be
crucial in the years to come.
One way round this has been to change the emphasis. Instead of
adaptation, countries are now talking about resilience – a more positive
term, suggesting empowerment and action, rather than giving in to a
threat.
“We want resilient development,” said Lord Stern, former chief economist of the World Bank and author of the landmark 2006 review of the economics of climate change.
“This is a development-oriented idea. We used to have the idea that it
is more expensive to build things that are low-carbon, but that was
wrong. Development should be resilient and sustainable. Whenever I come
across the word adaptation, I delete it and put in resilience.”
Experts meet to discuss adaptation ahead of COP23 in Bonn, May 2017. Photograph: James Dowson/UNFCCC
Building resilience has advantages that go far beyond climate change –
improvements to infrastructure, and a better evolved response to
natural disasters such as tsunamis and earthquakes that have nothing to
do with global warming – and can also help to improve the quality of
people’s lives, and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
For
instance, improved public transport systems would have a huge economic
benefit in many developing countries, would reduce reliance on fossil
fuels, and could be built in such a way as to be resistant against
encroaching climate change. Buildings constructed with climate change in
mind would also be more efficient, resistant to extreme heat, and
against the storms, floods and droughts that are likely to become more
frequent under global warming.
At Bonn, discussions are likely to focus on how to help developing
countries become more resilient, and the financing that may be available
for them to do so. The latter could be a combination of overseas aid
from major economies, and investment from the private sector. These
discussions, however, are still at an early stage and there may be
little concrete outcome on them from the talks other than a decision to
keep talking.
Yet the most pressing issue of the conference is likely to be the one
that receives least public attention, and deliberately so. Known as the
“facilitative dialogue”, this is a crucial – but overlooked – rider to
the Paris agreement.
At Paris, countries acknowledged that their pledges to curb
greenhouse gas emissions fell well short of the reductions advised by
scientists. In order to forge the agreement, they made a compromise: in
future years, they would ratchet up their pledges to the levels
required.
A meeting board at the Bonn UN climate change conference – Bula is a
Fijian word used in greeting. Photograph: James Dowson/UNFCCC
This made agreement at Paris possible, but it effectively put off the
toughest negotiations to future years of talks. The difficulty of
resolving this should not be underestimated. Currently, none of the
world’s biggest emitters can agree on how any such ratchet mechanism
would work. Should countries, for instance, take on more stringent
emissions goals simply by adding a certain amount to their current
pledges? Or should their future pledges be calculated based on their
projected economic growth? How should the responsibility for historic
emissions be taken into account? What status should be given to
scientific advice on how to keep within the 2C limit?
Most countries want to ensure that their pledges are entirely of
their own devising, rather than reached in consensus with the rest of
the UN, but it is unclear what would happen if these pledges are
inadequate. The work is made harder still by deficiencies in collating
reliable and up-to-date data on each country’s emissions.
The discussions on the ratchet mechanism are known in the UN jargon
as “the facilitative dialogue”, a name that disguises the fraught nature
of these negotiations. Given the lack of consensus among major
countries on how any such ratchet mechanism should work, and the adamant
refusal of the US to take part in further pledges, it may take much
more than talanoa – and years more of tough negotiations – to come up
with a solution to this conundrum.
The number of countries in which greenhouse gases has peaked
continues to rise, representing a "critical turning point" in the task
of curbing climate change, according to a report by the World Resources
Institute.
While offering a "silver lining", the rate of national
peaking won't be fast enough to prevent emissions reaching a zenith
before 2030, assuming countries implement their Paris climate pledges,
the Washington D.C.-based think-tank said.
Carbon dioxide levels surged in 2016 The amount of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere in 2016 hit a rate not seen for millions of years, the United Nations said.
Any backsliding by China and the US, the two biggest emitters
accounting for more than a third of the total, would also "significantly
compromise" the peak projections, it said.
Most of the early
peakers were former Eastern Bloc nations, whose heavy industry sectors
hammered in the run-up to the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.
Germany, France and the United Kingdom, though, had also seen their
greenhouse gas pollution top out by that year.
Australia, thanks largely to a reduction in land clearing, has
probably seen its emissions peak in 2006 at 610.2 million tonnes of
carbon-dioxide equivalent.
While the most recent quarterly figures show Australia's pollution
edging higher – up 1.2 per cent to 550.1 million tonnes of CO2-e in the
year to March 2017 – government projections don't point to a new peak
By 2010, 49 nations had likely peaked emissions, a tally the WRI
projects will reach 53 nations by 2020 and 57 by 2030. The share of
pollution from those peaking nations was 36 per cent in 2010, rising to
40 per cent in 2020 and 60 per cent by 2030, the WRI estimates. (See
chart below).
More nations are hitting peak emissions, although more needs to be done if the Paris climate goals are to achieved. Photo: AAP
Frydenberg to attend Bonn event
The think-tank's report is among a flurry of studies released ahead
of the Bonn climate conference that begins next week in Germany. The
gathering will review progress towards the climate targets agreed on by
almost 200 nations in Paris in late 2015.
Josh Frydenberg,
federal Environment and Energy minister, will be the most senior
Australian official at Bonn and plans to attend November 14-16, a
spokeswoman said. The overall event runs from November 6-17.
Globally, the world add 31,000 solar panels every hour, the IFC says. Photo: supplied
US emissions are assumed by the WRI to have peaked in 2007 despite
current President Donald Trump's campaign promise to end "the war on
coal", and his promise to pull America out of the Paris agreement.
Steady Chinese emissions have been critical to a flat-lining in global emissions over the past three years. Even so, atmospheric CO2 levels jumped by a record rate last year,
and China's growth of total greenhouse gases – including potent gases
such as methane – may increase if the economy accelerates.
"The more we delay necessary reductions, the greater the need for rapid reductions in subsequent decades," the WRI said.
Any
delay poses greater risks of economic disruption and more reliance on
unproven technologies to achieve negative emissions. It would also
raise risks of higher temperatures and associated greater adaptation
costs, it said. (See below of different scenarios.)
Carbon price 'key'
A separate study by the International Finance Corp., part of the
World Bank Group, estimated the Paris accord could create $US23
trillion in investment opportunities for 21 emerging economies alone by
2030.
Renewable energy investment, now worth $US297 billion a
year, is expected to rise 37-fold to $US11 trillion by 2040, the IFC
said. Most of that money will come from private investors.
One IFC
project in Papua New Guinea, partly funded by Australia, had brought
low-cost off-grid solar energy and storage to almost 20 per cent of the
population in just a couple of years. The model could be replicated in
the Pacific and elsewhere, Thomas Kerr, an author of the report, said.
"We
see a huge potential," said Mr Kerr, adding nations could be encouraged
to lift their Paris emissions-reduction goals if the huge supply of
funds makes their targets more achievable as expected.
Carbon
pricing – a policy rejected by the Abbott and Turnbull governments – is
favoured by the IFC as an efficient method to promote the shift from
fossil fuels to lower-carbon alternatives. "We think that it is just a
key policy that countries should be putting in place to … level the
playing field," Mr Kerr said.
Australia’s fossil fuel share of electricity generation is higher than that of our peers.
The following chart is ugly, in my next life I hope to come back with
more drawing ability and a better sense of design, but its also ugly
for Australians who care about doing our bit in the 21st century.
The data are for Jan-July 2017 cumulative for selected countries and regions. i.e. it’s basically right up to date. It shows that Australia has the highest share of fossil fuel generation in the selected sample of countries.
Most of the rest of the sample shows a big increase in wind & PV production. For instance in the USA as a whole (not shown) wind & PV cumulative production is up about 35% this year so far.
The graph also shows that our share (which includes rooftop PV) of wind & PV is one of the lowest. To be clear the IEA stats lump other in with wind & PV in their monthly data and so the chart marginally overstates the wind & PV share for the European countries selected. But we don’t think that makes much difference.
None of these other countries or grids seem to feel there is any difficulty, yet, with reliability. However its also fair to say that discussions about dispatchability and other market design related issues in many of these regions is on the increase.
It’s also fair to point out that transmission interconnectors more easily facilitate more renewables. But then we could easily build some more of them. Even the rainy UK is well ahead of Australia. California and Spain at 28% and 24% respectively are more than 3 times bigger in wind & PV than Australia and with comparable grid sizes.
As the electricity price in virtually every country and region is
lower than in Australia and as the renewable energy share is higher in
almost all of them, so its clearly not renewables alone that is
responsible for high prices. But anyone reading this knew that already.
To be sure I could select some countries in Eastern Europe and in
Asia that are worse than Australia, but I like to think we are better
than that. We are wealthy country with great renewable resources and we
can and will do better.
The UN is warning that we are now on course for 3C of global warming. This will ultimately redraw the map of the world
Global temperature change compared to pre-industrial levels
When UN climate negotiators meet for summit talks this month, there will be a new figure on the table: 3C.
Until now, global efforts such as the Paris climate agreement have
tried to limit global warming to 2C above pre-industrial levels.
However, with latest projections pointing to an increase of 3.2C by
2100, these goals seem to be slipping out of reach.
“[We] still find ourselves in a situation where we are not doing
nearly enough to save hundreds of millions of people from a miserable
future,” said Erik Solheim, the UN environment chief, ahead of the
upcoming Bonn conference.
One of the biggest resulting threats to cities around the world is
sea-level rise, caused by the expansion of water at higher temperatures
and melting ice sheets on the north and south poles.
Scientists at the non-profit organisation Climate Central estimate
that 275 million people worldwide live in areas that will eventually be
flooded at 3C of global warming.
Asian cities will be worst affected. The regional impact of these changes is highly uneven, with four out of five people affected living in Asia.
Although
sea levels will not rise instantaneously, the calculated increases will
be “locked in” at a temperature rise of 3C, meaning they will be
irreversible even if warming eventually slows down.
Osaka, Japan: 5.2 million people affected
At the end of a month in which it has been battered by unseasonably late typhoons and relentless rain, Japan is already confronting the threat posed by climate change-induced flooding.
Image modelling shows that swaths of Osaka – the commercial heart of a
region whose GDP is almost as big as that of the Netherlands – would
disappear beneath the water in a 3C world, threatening the local economy
and almost a third of the wider region’s 19 million residents. Millions of people live in the urban area surrounding Osaka. Sea-level rise will reshape densely and sparsely populated areas.
As a result of global sea-level rise, storm surges and other factors,
economists project that coastal flooding could put almost $1tn of
Osaka’s assets at risk by the 2070s, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists.
“The costs of protecting cities from rising sea levels and storms are
also likely to rise - as are the costs of repairing storm damage,” it
said. “Decisions we make today could have a profound impact on the
security and culture of the people of this ancient city.”
Like much of Japan, Osaka already has a network of seawalls and other
coastal defences in place to combat tsunami – although their
effectiveness was disputed in the aftermath of the 2011 triple disaster.
Osaka city authorities are investing in other infrastructure to
mitigate the effects of flooding, but public education is also vital,
according to Toshikazu Nakaaki of the Osaka municipal government’s
environment bureau.
“In the past our response was focused on reducing the causes of
global warming, but given that climate change is inevitable, according
to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we are now
discussing how to respond to the natural disasters that will follow,”
Nakaaki said.
“We anticipate that Osaka will be affected by natural disasters
caused by climate change, but we have yet to establish exactly what
might happen or how much financial damage they would cause.
“It’s not that we expect sea levels to rise at some point in the future – they are already rising.”
Keiko Kanai has long been aware that her home city is susceptible to
natural disasters. “I’d heard that historically, tsunamis caused by
earthquakes put many parts of Osaka underwater, and I knew that some
parts of the world were at risk from rising sea levels,” said Kanai, who
teaches at a local university.
“But I didn’t put two and two together. Until now I haven’t given
much thought to the idea that Osaka too could be engulfed by rising sea
levels.”
Kaori Akazawa, a nursing care consultant, said flooding was a consideration when she was deciding where in Osaka to live.
“When I moved here I talked to my colleagues about the risks,” she
said. “That’s why I’ve always rented apartments on the fourth storey or
higher.
“It’s worrying, but I’ve never considered moving.” Justin McCurry in Tokyo
Alexandria, Egypt: 3 million people affected
On the Alexandria Corniche, waves slowly lap at a shoreline dotted
with plastic chairs and umbrellas from the beachside cafes. Students
perch on the steps of the imposing Alexandria library. But the same
coastline that draws locals to its scenic vistas is threatening to
slowly engulf the historic city as sea levels rise due to global
warming.
The IPCC reported
that Alexandria’s beaches would be submerged even with a 0.5-metre
sea-level rise, while 8 million people would be displaced by flooding in
Alexandria and the Nile Delta if no protective measures are taken. A 3C
world threatens far greater damage than that.
Yet for many residents, there is little public information to connect
the increasingly chaotic weather and floods with climate change. “The
vast majority of Alexandrians don’t have access to knowledge, and that’s
what worries me. I don’t expect the government to raise awareness of
this problem until it’s already happening,” said 22-year-old student
Kareem Mohammed.
“Everyone thinks we should act on this problem 50 or 80 years from
now,” agreed his friend, Hazem Hassan, a student in marine biology at
the nearby Alexandria University.
Officials maintain that protective measures are being taken, but with
little fanfare. “Egypt spends 700m EGP [£30m] annually to protect the
north coast,” said Dr Magdy Allam, head of the Arab Environmental
Experts Union, who was previously part of the Egyptian environment
ministry.
Allam cited the Mohammed Ali sea wall built
in 1830 as a key protection, as well as the concrete blocks lining the
shoreline designed to “detour flood water away from residential
neighbourhoods”. But critics say that this is far from enough given the
scale of the problem.
“There are studies indicating that our city is one of many coastal
human settlements around the world which will be partially submerged by
2070 if nothing is done,” said Ahmed Hassan, of the Save Alexandria
Initiative, a group that works to raise awareness of the effects of
climate change on the city. Ruth Michaelson in Alexandria
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: 1.8 million people affected
Residents of Brazil’s postcard city have plenty of reasons to fear
global warming – even if they don’t quite know it. According to Climate
Central, a temperature rise of 3C would cause flooding of not just Rio’s
famous beaches such as Copacabana and its waterfront domestic airport,
but also inland areas of the Barra de Tijuca neighbourhood, where last
year’s Olympic Games were held.
Barra is built around a network of heavily polluted lagoons that
empty into the sea. The prospect of it being underwater alarmed resident
Sueli Gonçalves, 46, who runs pensioners’ health projects, as she and
her 23-year-old son Yuri Sanchez carried their shopping past the Olympic
Park.
“My God. Oh Jesus,” she said, with a nervous laugh. “I will leave here. I will go to the United States. To Canada.”
The family knew about global warming but were unaware of the
potential scale of the impact on their upscale neighbourhood of smart
condominiums and a shopping mall.
“Nobody takes it seriously. People do not think long term,” Gonçalves said.
Storm surges recently destroyed hundreds of metres of beachfront
pavement overlooking the Macumba beach, a popular surfing spot on Rio’s
western fringes. Last year, heavy waves in another storm surge felled an
elevated, clifftop cycle path between Leblon beach and Barra de Tijuca
which had not been built to survive such high seas, killing two people.
Last year, Rio’s city government and the Federal University of Rio de
Janeiro produced a study entitled Strategy for Adapting to Climate
Change.
“The current challenge consists in deepening knowledge and monitoring
of oceanic phenomena and the evolution of the sea bed and coast,” a
spokeswoman for the city’s secretariat of the environment said in an
email. An “adaption plan” for climate change produced with professors
from the federal university suggested strategies to deal with
vulnerabilities in areas such as transport, health and housing. But so
far little has been done.
Nara Pinto, 38, who lives in the sprawling Rocinha favela and sells
snacks on the pavement overlooking Copacabana beach, said the loss of
Rio’s famous beaches would cost a lot of jobs.
“The beach is a tourist point,” she said. “What can be done to stop this? Dom Phillips in Rio de Janeiro
Shanghai, China: 17.5 million people affected
“Shanghai is completely gone – I’d have to move to Tibet!” says
resident Wang Liubin, when he is shown projections for the city after 3C
of global warming.
When it comes to flooding, the coastal city is one of the world’s
most vulnerable. Now one of the world’s biggest ports, the former
fishing village is bordered by the Yangtze river in the north and
divided through the middle by the Huangpu river; the municipality
involves several islands, two long coastlines, shipping ports, and miles
of canals, rivers, and waterways.
In 2012, a report from a team of
UK and Dutch scientists declared Shanghai the most vulnerable major city
in the world to serious flooding, based on factors such as numbers of
people living close to the coastline, time needed to recover from
flooding, and measures to prevent floodwater. According to Climate
Central projections, 17.5 million people could be displaced by rising
waters if global temperatures increase by 3C.
Projections show the vast majority of the city could eventually be
submerged in water, including much of the downtown area, landmarks such
as the Lujiazui skyline and the historical Bund, both airports, and the
entirety of its outlying Chongming Island.
Since 2012, the government has been making steady inroads to tackle
the threat, including building China’s largest deepwater drainage system
beneath the Suzhou Creek waterway, made up of 15km of pipes to drain
rainwater across a 58 sq km area. It has also rolled out a 40bn yuan
(£5bn) River Flood Discharge project which will stretch for 120km
between Lake Taihu and the Huangpu river to try and mitigate the risk of
the upstream lake flooding.
Flood prevention walls are being built along the waterfront – in
places so high the river is blocked from view – and 200km more are
promised across the city’s outlying districts. Flood controls have been
put in place along the famous Bund waterfront, where the walkway has
been raised to help counter a flood risk, as well as a series of water
controls and dams. Helen Roxburgh in Shanghai
Miami, US: 2.7 million people affected
Few other cities in the world have as much to lose from rising sea levels as Miami, and the alarm bells sound ever louder with each successive “king tide” that overwhelms coastal defences and sends knee-deep seawater coursing through downtown streets.
Locals consider this the “new normal” in the biggest city of
Florida’s largest metropolitan area, which would simply cease to exist
with a 3C temperature rise. Even at 2C, forecasts show almost the entire
bottom third of Florida – the area south of Lake Okeechobee currently
home to more than 7 million people - submerged, with grim projections
for the rest of the state in a little more than half a century. In
Miami-Dade county alone, almost $15bn of coastal property is at risk of flooding in just the next 15 years.
A sense of urgency is evident at city hall, where commissioners are asking voters to approve a “Miami Forever” bond in the November ballot that includes $192m for upgrading pump stations, improving drainage and raising sea walls.
“We have a really precious city that many people love and are willing
to invest in right now, but it’s going to take some funds to protect
it,” said Ken Russell, the city commission’s vice-chair.
Last year, the city of Miami appointed sea-rise expert Jane Gilbert
into the newly created role of chief resilience officer with
instructions for a robust stormwater management plan that also looks at
storm surge, such as that from Hurricane Irma in September which brought
significant flooding to downtown Brickell and neighbouring Coconut Grove.
Proposals include elevating roads and even abandoning neighbourhoods to the water to protect others.
“We need universal recognition that we’re all in this together, to
protect this amazing global city that we’ve become,” she said.
Natalia Ortiz, who grew up in Miami, fears the future. “It’s very scary,” said Ortiz, who works with Cleo,
a climate change advocacy group. “My son is 11 and my daughter is nine,
so they’re young but I think about their future, will they be able to
raise their children in Miami the way I had the luxury of raising mine?” Richard Luscombe in Miami Methodology Flood maps were created using sea-level rise estimates
from Climate Central and digital elevation data. Population estimates
refer to urban agglomerations which comprise the built-up area of a city
and the suburbs linked with it. Maps include OpenStreetMap data. Temperature projections are based on University of Washington emissions modelling and UN warming estimates. Trajectories have been updated to match latest temperatures as recorded by the Met Office Hadley Centre.Josh Holder, Niko Kommenda and Jonathan Watts
