(NZ New Zealand Herald) Climate Change: How Future Oz Wild Fires Will Worsen NZ's Big Glacier Melt

New Zealand Herald - Jamie Morton

Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research scientist Dr John Hunt collects snow at Fox Glacier soon after it was discoloured by dust from Australia's unprecedented bush fires. Photo / Phil Novis

Australia's catastrophic bush fires sent enough ash across the Tasman Sea to darken nearly all of the South Island's glaciers - compounding the already severe melting effect of climate warming.

Scientists say the "unprecedented" effects of the 2019-2020 bush fires - themselves driven by climate change - are a taste of what New Zealand will experience more of as the planet warms.

When the smoke reached our shores that summer, the most noticeable effect was the ghastly orange that temporarily tinted our skies.

But few may have pondered the dramatic impacts unfolding around our tourist-drawing glaciers.

Over the first few months of 2020, light-absorbing particles like black carbon and mineral settled on snow across almost the entire South Island, stretching more than 350km.

Now, a new study has found the snow-darkening effect of this dust was observed across an area of 2500 sq km of snow and ice - or 90 per cent of the glaciers.

Such particles drove melting by reducing within snow the amount of solar radiation reflected back - something called "albedo".

Because the albedo of pure snow was high, a large amount of the incoming radiation was reflected back before it could be absorbed and cause melting.

Coupled with the lowered albedo, the high solar radiation intensity over New Zealand during the southern summer, and other factors, the impact on the glaciers was going to be severe.

At the time, Monash University glacier researcher Professor Andrew Mackintosh estimated that the far-flung dust could have increased the season's melt rate by around a third.

In January 2020, Auckland's biggest drought in 25 years coincided with an orange haze created by Australia's devastating bush fires. Photo / Greg Bowker Visuals

In their study, just published in the journal Fundamental Research, scientists from China's Lanzhou University attempted to quantify precisely what it was.

Using satellite observations, they calculated the dust caused a mean enhanced snow melt rate of between 0.2cm and 0.41cm each day between January and March 2020 - with maximum daily melt rates of up to 0.66cm.

By the end of that period, they suggested the total enhanced melting could have been as high as 40cm - and generated as much as 750 million cubic metres of equivalent snow-water in the hydrologic cycle.

The researchers also reported how mean air temperatures increased by about 1.8C over the three months.

"In comparison, the air temperature over New Zealand has increased by 1.5C from pre-industrial times to the present," they said.

"This means that snow darkening caused by Australian wild fires resulted in a higher snow-melt acceleration than that caused by global warming over the past hundred years."

With climate change expected to drive larger and more frequent wild fire, the implications for the glaciers were grim.

"Wild fire-induced snow darkening may become more common not only in New Zealand," they said, "but also over the global cryosphere due to intensified future wild fires."

Manaaki Whenua Landcare researcher Dr Phil Novis, who is leading a million-dollar project investigating just that threat, said it was difficult to model snow and ice mass balance across all of New Zealand, even when using high-resolution data.

"In our opinion the authors did well with what they had available, and nicely illustrated that the impact of the bush fires was large, even if nailing down the actual magnitude of that impact is pretty difficult."

The decline of New Zealand glaciers like the Franz Josef will grow only more severe under climate change. Photo / Brian Anderson

But he pointed out that background albedo in the glaciers had changed over the last 20 years independently of the bush fires - which could affect some of the study author's calculations.

Novis also highlighted the researchers' suggestion that the impact of the fires on the hydrological cycle had been greater than that of climate warming since pre-industrial times.

"While this could possibly be true in a limited sense, the impact of climate warming has effects far beyond summer melting," he said.

"Because New Zealand glaciers occupy a high-precipitation environment, temperature changes have very large effects on snow accumulation and glacier area, and these will exceed the impact of the bushfires, even though the latter is very spectacular and obvious.

"So, while we welcome this work illustrating the substantial effect of the Australian bushfires on New Zealand glaciers, it's important to continue to recognise the enormous impact of climate warming and all its implications."

A recent study published in major journal Nature found that New Zealand's glaciers had been thinning at a rate of 1.5m a year between 2015 and 2019 - a nearly sevenfold increase compared to the period from 2000 to 2004.

And over the last four decades, other research has shown the Southern Alps have shed nearly a third of their ice volume - equivalent to the basic daily water use requirements of our current population for that whole period.

While Niwa's most recent aerial stocktake has found the glaciers fared better than expected over summer, the long-term prognosis for the icy wonders remains dire. 

Links

• 2019–20 Australian bushfires—frequently asked questions: a quick guide
• Unprecedented snow darkening and melting in New Zealand due to 2019–2020 Australian wildfires
• Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century
• (AU) Black Summer Bushfires Could Be Yearly Event Due To Climate Change: Report
• 'Best Case' Goals For Climate Warming Which Could Still Result In Massive Wildfire Risk
• How climate change made the melting of New Zealand’s glaciers 10 times more likely
• New Zealand's Southern Alps glacier melt has doubled
• End of the ice: New Zealand’s vanishing glaciers
• The big melt: New Zealand's glaciers losing 1.5m of thickness each year
• (AU) Black Summer Bushfires Made Worse By Climate Change, Risk To 'Rapidly Intensify'
• These Stunning NASA Satellite Images Capture 2020's Extreme Climate Events

(UK Reuters) BrItain To Treble Tree Planting By 2024 To Fight Climate Change

Reuters

Local youngsters Bella (L) and Daisy walk through a forest covered in bluebells near Marlborough in southern England, May 4, 2015. REUTERS/Toby Melville

Britain said it planned to treble tree planting rates over the next three years to help reach its target of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, as part of efforts to fight climate change.

The UK wants to push ahead with its environmental plans and encourage other nations to do the same ahead of its hosting of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, known as COP26, in November.

George Eustice, UK environment secretary, is set to announce on Tuesday that woodland creation rates will treble by May 2024, with around 7,000 hectares of woodlands planted per year.

"We will make sure that the right trees are planted in the right places and that more green jobs are created in the forestry sector," Eustice is due to say, according to a government statement published on Sunday.

The statement gave no other details of the plan and did not say how many trees would be planted or where, and did not say how much the planting scheme would cost or how it would be funded. It also did not give a comparison figure for how many hectares of woodland had been planted previously.

Britain's climate tsar and COP26 President Alok Sharma warned on Friday that world leaders must agree to end coal use at the November summit to prevent a climate catastrophe.

Ahead of COP26, the UK government said it was focused on four goals: securing global net zero, protecting communities and natural habitats from the impacts of climate change, mobilising finance, and nations working together to accelerate action.

Links

• (AU) Sydney Plans Tree-Planting Blitz To Curb Heat
• A 10 Billion-Tree Plan Is Restoring Pakistan’s Lost Forests
• (Commentary) Without Planting More Trees In The Tropics, We Can’t Fix The Climate
• Why We Believe Planting 1 Trillion Trees Can Save The Planet
• 15 Astounding Facts About Trees
• Fast-Growing Mini-Forests Spring Up In Europe To Aid Climate
• The African Country That Inspired More And More Countries To Plant Billions Of Trees
• (UK) Climate Change: Will Planting Millions Of Trees Really Save The Planet?
• Opinion: Current Proposals To Plant Trees To Fight Climate Change Are Badly Misguided
• Examining The Viability Of Planting Trees To Help Mitigate Climate Change 

(AU Monash University) Victoria's Water Catchments May Not Recover From Drought: Study

Monash University

Study shows that rivers may not always eventually recover from drought.

Summary Australian-first research by Monash University discredits the theory that rivers and underground water supplies eventually replenish following droughts or floods. Following the Australian Millennium Drought, one-third of Victoria’s water catchments included in the study still had not recovered from drought by mid-2017, nearly eight years later. For those water catchments not recovered, roughly 80 per cent showed no evidence of recovering anytime soon. This suggests less rain is going into streamflow and ground water than it used to. Study Dr Tim Peterson (Monash University, Department of Civil Engineering) led this study, in close collaboration with the University of Melbourne's Dr Margarita Saft, Dr Murray Peel and Dr Andrew John. The study was predominantly funded by the Victorian Government’s Victorian Water and Climate Initiative with more recent support from the Australian Research Council.

One-third of the water catchments included in a Victorian study had not recovered from a severe drought nearly eight years later, Australian-first research from Monash University shows.

Globally, science holds the common view that rivers and underground water supplies eventually replenish following periods of severe drought or flood.

This study, led by Dr Tim Peterson from Monash University’s Department of Civil Engineering and published today in the prestigious international journal Science, is the first in the world to challenge this widely held view.

Researchers used statistical models of rainfall and streamflow at 161 water catchments across Victoria, each with over 30 years of data and no upstream dams or water extractions. The area surveyed is about the size of the United Kingdom or half that of the US state of California.

Dr Peterson and research colleagues from The University of Melbourne discovered that when the drought ends, some rivers continue to behave like they’re still in a drought for years afterwards and many have not yet recovered.

Specifically, the runoff, as a fraction of precipitation, had not recovered in 37 per cent of water catchments in Victoria after Australia’s Millennium Drought, and the number of recovering water catchments remained stagnant.

This means that 100mm of precipitation before the drought in 1990 created more river flow than the same 100mm in 2017, therefore delivering a 30 per cent reduced streamflow after the drought.

The number of water catchments with a low or very low runoff state increased rapidly from 1996 to the end of the meteorological drought in summer 2010. By 2011, only 15 per cent of water catchments had recovered.

The Millennium Drought, regarded as one of the worst droughts to hit Australia in its modern history, crippled the Murray-Darling Basin and placed extreme pressure on ecosystems, agricultural production and urban water supply in the south-eastern part of the country. It ended with a La Nina weather event in 2010.

A water catchment, or watershed, is any area of land that captures precipitation, which then flows into common outlets, such as a river, stream, bay or lake. Almost all of Victoria’s water supply comes from streamflow.

Dr Peterson said the regeneration of water catchments after severe drought had major implications for global long-term water resource planning and aquatic environments, especially when climate change is added on top of their findings.

“Our findings suggest hydrological droughts can persist indefinitely after meteorological droughts and that the mechanism for recovery remains an open question,” Dr Peterson said.

“This new discovery just appears to be the way catchments naturally behave. It’s not explained by factors like land use. They are just more complex than we thought.”

Percentage of the 161 study water catchments that displayed low runoff behaviour before, during and after the Millennium Drought from ~1997-2010. The shaded area from 2010 shows the percentage of water catchments that had not recovered from the drought.

Each water catchment analysed for this study had at least 15, seven and five years of streamflow observations before, during and after the Millennium Drought respectively, and had no major upstream reservoirs or river extractions.

Across all 161 water catchments, researchers found eight years into the drought, 51 per cent of the catchments switched into a low or very low runoff state. When the drought ended in 2010, primarily the eastern water catchments returned to a normal runoff state (see figure).

Importantly, by mid-2017, nearly eight years after the drought, more than one-third of water catchments still remained within a low runoff state, and have not recovered back to the pre-drought behaviour.

Dr Peterson said evidence also suggested vegetation responded to the drought by increasing the fraction of precipitation going to transpiration – the process of water movement through a plant and its evaporation from leaves.

“Practically, this implies that in response to the Millennium Drought, vegetation in selected water catchments responded by maintaining similar rates of transpiration,” he said.

Researchers say they’ve shown that water catchments are more complex than previously thought and that the findings are helping water agencies to better plan for the future.

Dr Peterson and his co-authors at The University of Melbourne have been working with, and communicating the findings to, the Victorian and national water agencies; most recently through the broader findings of the Victorian Water and Climate Initiative.

He says: “it’s exciting that the findings have already begun to be used in how water is managed. We are now developing mathematical tools to further help water management use these findings to ensure long-term water supply within a challenging and changing climate.”

Links

• (AU) Melbourne’s Real-World Impact On Climate Change
• Thirst Turns To Anger As Australia's Mighty River Runs Dry
• 'The Darling Will Die': Scientists Say Mass Fish Kill Due To Over-Extraction And Drought
• (AU) We Looked At 35 Years Of Rainfall And Learnt How Droughts Start In The Murray-Darling Basin
• (AU) Australia Among Global 'Hot Spots' As Droughts Worsen In Warming World
• Damage From Climate Change Will Be Widespread And Sometimes Surprising
• (AU) ‘Real Struggle’: Map Shows Silent Crisis Threatening Australia
• (AU) Productivity Commission Says New Australian Water Deal Must Recognise Climate Change

(AU SMH) Blowing In The Wind: Have We Missed Our Chance To Become A Renewables Superpower?

Sydney Morning Herald - Nicky Ison

Author Nicky Ison is the energy transition manager at WWF-Australia.

As the world acts on climate change and transitions to renewable energy, Australia has a once-in-a-century opportunity.

Rich in renewable resources, we are in pole position to become a renewable energy superpower.

But based on Tuesday’s federal budget, when compared to the investment other countries are making, we risk being left behind.

Photovoltaic modules at a solar farm on the outskirts of Gunnedah. Credit: Bloomberg

The federal government has long pledged that technology, not taxes, will put Australia on the path to net zero emissions.

The good news is we have the technology we need to decarbonise, from solar panels (which Aussies helped to invent) and wind turbines to batteries and electric vehicles, which require critical minerals that Australia has in abundance.

What is needed is government support to accelerate the deployment of these technologies. Yet, such support was notably absent from the 2021 budget.

If the 2020 budget could be characterised as having pro-renewables investments exceeding $1 billion announced under the guise of pro-gas rhetoric, Tuesday’s budget doubled down on gas not just in rhetoric but in over half-a-billion dollars in funding commitments.

Given we have more leeway in this year’s budget to invest in the country’s future as we seek to rebuild post-pandemic, it is a missed opportunity to put Australia on the path to become a renewable superpower.

President Joe Biden signs an executive order on climate change earlier this year. Credit: AP

It is also somewhat baffling given the events of the past 12 months; increasing severity of extreme weather events and our 2019-20 bushfire season signalling what we face if climate change goes unchecked, COVID-19 creating an urgent need to shore up jobs, and the election of Joe Biden presaging the most ambitious pro-climate commitments of any developed country.

The new Biden administration has tabled its American Jobs Plan (also known as the Infrastructure Plan), which sets a new bar. It represents an investment of around 5.65 per cent of America’s GDP in clean recovery stimulus measures.

Other leading countries are committing between 1-2 per cent of GDP over the next decade. Meanwhile, Australia’s current pledges equate to a mere 0.14 per cent of GDP.

There are some positive steps. Investments in hydrogen generation – provided it is powered by renewables – and green steel are much needed to decarbonise our energy-intensive heavy industries. And funding to support Australian businesses with the uptake of more energy efficient industrial equipment and business practices is welcome.

Future Power

Hype or holy grail: What’s driving the hydrogen rush?

But the comparative lack of investment will not serve Australia well in the long-term. Indeed, the consequences of inaction may be felt sooner than we think.

Not only will we miss out on new jobs and economic windfalls, we also risk exposing Australian exports to corrective measures by more climate-minded trading partners as they seek to level the playing field.

The European Parliament voted in favour of such a levy earlier this year, with its Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

This would see tariffs imposed on the emissions involved in the production and shipping of goods being traded. The US, Japan and Korea are considering similar measures.

There are signs, however, that the tide is turning in Australia. WWF-Australia recently released its Renewable Superpower Scorecard, which presents a snapshot of how states, territories and the federal government are performing in the race to become a renewable superpower.

ACT and Victoria are pledging investments more akin to leading countries, as a proportion of their GDP. South Australia and Tasmania are thinking beyond “100 per cent” renewables, recognising the opportunity to export.

And projects like Sonnen’s battery assembly plant in South Australia and the Kidston solar and pumped hydro project in Queensland show what is possible when political foresight and investment align.

Paris Agreement

European-style carbon taxes destined to spread, says former trade chief

But the states should not have to do the heavy lifting on renewables without adequate federal investment and leadership, for it slows our nation’s stride.

Just imagine how fast we could move, and what we could achieve as a nation if our federal government stepped up and led from the front on this critical agenda.

As global action on climate change gathers pace, the UN Climate Change Conference in November is a notable milestone. It is a point at which Australia will be judged by our international allies and trading partners.

We have a five-month window to act and secure our place at the leaders’ table. The alternative is we squander the economic opportunity of a century.

Links

• (AU The Guardian) The 2021 Federal Budget Was Light On Climate And Environment Measures. But Here’s What You Should Know
• (New Yorker) Renewable Energy Is Suddenly Startlingly Cheap
• New Report Hails The Decade Of Renewables As 2020 Hits Capacity Record
• (AU) Victoria’s Grid Runs On 50 Per Cent Renewable Energy For First Time
• (AU) Coal’s Retreat As Renewables Surge Is A Shock, But Not A Surprise
• ‘All about evolution’: Here’s what to do with a dead power station
• The race to rescue Australia’s 50 most vulnerable plant species
• Blowing in the wind: Have we missed our chance to become a renewables superpower?
• Turnbull says ‘right wing craziness’ drives the government on climate
• Sydney to spend $24 million to accelerate net-zero goal by five years
• ‘All bets are off’: Fire weather trumps forestry, prescribed burning

(UK BBC) COP26: Alok Sharma Urges Nations To Banish Coal

BBC - Roger Harrabin

Former UK Business Secretary Alok Sharma was made full-time president of COP26 in January. PA Media

The head of a vital UN climate summit due to be held in Glasgow in November says his personal priority is to banish coal.

Speaking ahead of the COP26 conference, Alok Sharma will urge nations to abandon coal power generation, with rich countries leading the way.

He will add that wealthy nations must help poorer ones make the same change.

And he will tell banks and institutions to stop lending money to countries to build coal power stations.

In his speech, the former business Secretary will say: "The days of coal providing the cheapest form of power are in the past. And in the past they must remain.

“The coal business is, as the UN secretary general [António Guterres] has said, going up in smoke. It’s old technology.

“So let’s make COP26 the moment we leave it in the past where it belongs, while supporting workers and communities to make the transition and creating good 'green' jobs to fill the gap.”

His apparent passion explains why he was reportedly "apoplectic" when Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick allowed plans for a new coal mine in Cumbria – a decision that’s now gone to a planning review.

Mr Sharma is set to re-iterate the UK’s main themes for the summit, which will bring together climate negotiators from 196 countries, the EU, as well as businesses, organisations, experts and world leaders.

They are: limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees; helping people and nature adapt to climate warming that will inevitably happen; and drumming up finance for poorer nations to get clean technology.

He will be supported by government ministers who will be taking part in climate-related visits throughout Friday to show how the UK is attempting to "green" all parts of society - from hospitals and prisons, to jobs and transport.

'Pick the planet'

Mr Sharma will say: "I have faith that world leaders will rise to the occasion and not be found wanting in their tryst with destiny."

And he will invoke a message from his children: "In preparing for this speech, I asked my daughters what message I should give to world leaders about their priorities. Their response was simple: 'Please, tell them to pick the planet.'"

He and the summit face enormous challenges.

More and more nations are signing up for ambitious climate targets but many of them - including the UK - are falling behind on existing targets.

The UK is criticised by environmentalists for failing to curb emissions from its housing stock, and for planning a £27bn road programme that will increase emissions.

Last week came a slightly hopeful analysis from the think tank Climate Action Tracker following US President Joe Biden’s virtual climate summit.

It estimated that newly agreed targets have reduced projected warming by the end of century by 0.2C.

The forecast increase now stands at 2.4C - a small improvement, but still higher than the 1.5C threshold nations are aiming for under the 2015 Paris climate agreement.

And that’s assuming that nations actually keep their promises - and that Covid doesn't wreck the summit.

Links

• (Financial Times) Climate Change: Australia Wrestles With Its Coal Mining Dilemma
• (AU The Australian) Labor Drops Hostility To Coal
• (AU) Coal’s Retreat As Renewables Surge Is A Shock, But Not A Surprise
• (AU) PM’s Claim Australian Coal Produces Much Lower Emissions Is ‘Nonsense’
• (AU) Coal Sector Losses Near $1.5
• 'Invisible Killer': Fossil Fuels Caused 8.7m Deaths Globally In 2018, Research Finds
• Government has 'no plans' to delay climate summit
• COP26: What, where, when?
• A really simple guide to climate change

(The Guardian) Third Of Global Food Production At Risk From Climate Crisis

The Guardian - Fiona Harvey

Food-growing areas will see drastic changes to rainfall and temperatures if global heating continues at current rate

A farmer attempts to cultivate maize in a drought-stricken field in northern Ghana, West Africa. Photograph: Alamy

A third of global food production will be at risk by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current rate, new research suggests.

Many of the world’s most important food-growing areas will see temperatures increase and rainfall patterns alter drastically if temperatures rise by about 3.7C, the forecast increase if emissions stay high.

Researchers at Aalto University in Finland have calculated that about 95% of current crop production takes place in areas they define as “safe climatic space”, or conditions where temperature, rainfall and aridity fall within certain bounds.

If temperatures were to rise by 3.7C or thereabouts by the century’s end, that safe area would shrink drastically, mostly affecting south and south-eastern Asia and Africa’s Sudano-Sahelian zone, according to a paper published in the journal One Earth on Friday.

However, if greenhouse gases are reduced and the world meets the goals of the Paris agreement, in limiting temperature rises to 1.5C or 2C above pre-industrial levels, then only about 5%–8% of global food production would be at risk.

Matti Kummu, an associate professor of global food and water at Aalto University and lead author of the paper, said: “A third of global food production will be at risk. We should be worried, as the climate safe space is quite narrow.

"But there are measures we can take in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. And we should empower people and societies in the danger zones, to reduce the impact and increase their resilience and adaptive capacity.”
Although rising temperatures could increase food production in some areas that are currently less productive, such as the Nordic regions, that would not be anywhere near enough to offset the loss of important food producing regions in the south, said Kummu.

“There will be winners as well as losers, but the wins will be outweighed by the losses, and there is just not enough space for food production to move – we are already at the limits,” he said.

Livestock farming would be affected, as well as the risks to crop production, he said, and many areas were likely to suffer large increases in water scarcity. The researchers examined the impacts of climatic changes on 27 of the most important food crops and seven types of livestock.

By the end of this century, in a high-emissions scenario, there could be as much as 1.5m sq miles (4m sq km) of new desert around the world, the research found.

Under 1.5C to 2C of warming, the boreal forests of northern America, Russia and Europe would shrink from their current 7m sq miles to about 6m sq miles by 2100. In a high emissions scenario, only 3m sq miles would remain, the researchers forecast.

The paper adds to previous research that has found that global heating is already having an impact on agricultural productivity.

Links

• Climate Change-Related Disasters A Major Threat To Food Security – FAO
• (AU) Our Survival As A Species Requires Urgent Action
• More Than 1 Billion People Face Displacement By 2050: Report
• (NZ) Climate Explained: How Climate Change Will Affect Food Production And Security
• ‘We Really Need To Wake Up Quickly’: Al Gore Warns Of A Looming Food Crisis Caused By Climate Change
• Last hope over climate crisis requires end to coal, says Alok Sharma
• Australia stands alone in not having a significant climate plan, says UK expert
• Asia is home to 99 of world’s 100 most vulnerable cities
• Climate emissions shrinking the stratosphere, scientists reveal
• Joe Biden’s 50% emissions goal is ambitious. But it’s still not enough
• One in four cities cannot afford climate crisis protection measures – study
• Melting away: understanding the impact of disappearing glaciers – podcast
• ‘The next decade will be all about heat’: can Athens head off climate

(AU The Guardian) Australia Stands Alone In Not Having A Significant Climate Plan, Says UK Expert

The Guardian - Adam Morton

Nigel Topping says the Morrison government will face ‘a certain amount of pressure’ at the G7 meeting in Cornwall in June

A leading climate expert says Australia is alone among major countries in having no significant climate plan. Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP

A leading UK climate official says Australia is alone among major countries in that neither its national government nor opposition have a significant climate plan, and frustrating local business leaders.

Nigel Topping, the UN’s “high-level champion” whose role involves global outreach to drive global ambition ahead of the Cop26 climate conference in Glasgow in November, said he had not seen another country in which no major political party had a plan to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The Morrison government would face “a certain amount of pressure” to lift its ambition on climate at the G7 meeting in England next month, where Australia is one of four invited guest nations.

All G7 members have targets to cut emissions by at least 40% below 2005 levels by 2030 and reach net zero emissions no later than 2050.

Topping said on Thursday night that in discussions with Australians there had been a strong sense that state governments and the private sector were committed to the race to net zero campaign, but that business leaders had bemoaned there was “neither a plan nor a counter plan” at a federal level.

“I have heard a couple of times people saying that no one’s got a plan,” he said. “I have picked up from several business voices that there is some frustration over the lack of that.”

Speaking at an early webinar hosted by the Australia Institute, Topping said the international community was pleased the Morrison government had recently begun talking about a target of net zero emissions by 2050 “somewhat tentatively”, but it was not a “signal which matches the ambition and expectations of other wealthy developed countries”.

The Morrison government has not joined more than 100 countries in setting a formal mid-century net zero emissions goal, and has resisted pressure from the US, Britain and the European Union to increase its 2030 target.

Scott Morrison told a recent climate summit hosted by the US president, Joe Biden, that the country wanted to reach net zero “as soon as we possibly can”.

The prime minister said his government supported a “technology, not taxes’’ approach.

While other developed countries have committed tens of billions to drive action, the federal budget this week included little spending on addressing the climate crisis.

The government’s 2030 emissions target – a minimum 26% cut compared with 2005 – has not been increased since it was set six years ago, and analysts have found it “insufficient” given what is required. Scientists have recommended at least a 50% cut.

Climate pledges compared: 2030 emissions reduction targets relative to 2005 levels
Showing the minimum pledge value if there is a range

Guardian graphic | Source: Investor Group on Climate Change

Labor has backed a 2050 net zero emissions goal, but dropped its 2030 target after losing the 2019 election.

It said it would release a roadmap to get to net zero before the next election.

In his budget reply on Thursday night opposition leader Anthony Albanese said positive action on the climate crisis would “create jobs, lower energy prices and lower emissions”, and promised a $100m energy apprenticeship plan.

Topping said Australia would be accepted “with open arms and civilly, as a friend” at the G7 in Cornwall, but would face “a certain amount of pressure given that everybody else has made very clear that they are getting to net zero by 2050”.

Australia is one of four guest nations at the G7 along with India, South Korea and South Africa.

He said the US had a target of at least a 50% cut by 2030, the EU 55% and Britain 68% (the latter two compared with 1990 levels). Germany has promised to reach net zero by 2045.

“We know that’s what the leading developed countries need to do to implement the Paris agreement, so I’m sure there will be a lot of polite pressure on the side to join that group,” Topping said.

He said there would also be pressure “to move away from the rhetoric that you can have a plan without a target which, of course, any business person knows is just silly”.

“If you have a plan without a target actually you’re just loosey-goosey,” he said.

“A plan starts with a clear target.

"If you’re going to try to run a marathon you know the mile times that you’ve got to keep clocking up.

"If you can’t put those up in practice, and if you can’t get the first three miles out in time, then you’re behind in the race and you may never catch up.

“This is not about doing the right thing, or the green thing, or the ethical thing or the responsible thing. It is about all those things, but fundamentally this is an issue of corporate and national competitiveness.”

Pressure on Australia to do more on climate has been growing. Last month the Biden administration said Australia needed to cut emissions faster, and the UK, France and the UN last year refused Morrison a speaking slot at a global climate ambition summit after he did not offer any new policies.

Topping said Australia was well placed to succeed in the race to a zero emissions economy given its abundant clean natural resources. The transition elsewhere was going “exponentially fast”, with targets that appeared aggressive two years ago now looking conservative.

He cited the recently announced Glasgow financial alliance for net zero, under which 160 banks and firms with more than US$70tn in assets pledged to cut their emissions and ensure their investment portfolios aligned with climate science.

Moody’s Investors Service said the evident acceleration to reduce emissions to net zero would increase credit risks and the cost of doing business for major emitters.

“The countries that are on the front foot are able to manage and ensure it’s a transition that leads to jobs growth as well as economic growth,” Topping said. “I’m just sort of sensing a bit of confusion and frustration among people I’ve spoken to in Australia that you don’t have that clarity.”

Links

• The 2021 federal budget was light on climate and environment measures. But here’s what you should know
• Australia left behind as wealthy G20 nations pledge emissions cuts
• UN climate summit president thanks Australian states – but not Morrison government – for backing net zero
• Climate Action Tracker: Australia
• Biden administration says Australia needs to cut greenhouse gas emissions sooner
• Moody's warns emitters on race to net zero