(AU ABC) Scott Morrison Plays Down Australia's Overall Emissions Compared To China's, But That's Not The Whole Story

ABC News - Melissa Clarke

Scott Morrison often cites China's emissions as a rationale for not introducing a more ambitious emissions-reduction plan. (ABC News, Reuters)

China's President Xi Jinping didn't make it to the Glasgow talks, instead addressing the global climate conference from home.

The absence of the leader of world's biggest emitter was noted by US President Joe Biden, who cast doubt over China's commitment to emissions reduction.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison regularly highlights the sheer volume of China's emissions and its central role to tackling the global issue of climate change.

He cites it as evidence of Australia's relatively small contribution to the problem of global warming, providing himself with a rationale for not introducing more ambitious emissions reduction plans.

But just how do the emissions of China and Australia stack up? And how does it affect the global climate talks taking place in Glasgow?

What are China's emissions and how do they compare to Australia's?

In 2020, China emitted 13.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide and equivalent greenhouse gases. That's 13,800,000,000 tonnes.

By comparison, Australia emitted 512 megatonnes, which is 512,000,000 tonnes.

If all of the zeros are making your eyes water, we can put it another way that has a few less: China emits about 27 times more greenhouse gases than Australia.

Climate Watch — a project by the World Resources Institute and used by the World Bank — keeps a database on national emissions that is based on a wide range of sources.

Its most comprehensive comparison is based on 2018 data. It shows China as the biggest emitting nation, responsible for 23.9 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Australia ranks as the 16th biggest emitter, responsible for 1.3 per cent.

Total annual emissions per country between 1990 and 2018. (Climate Watch)

China emits far more than Australia but, per person, Australia is much worse

The sheer volume of China's emissions is in large part due to its population size.

Using the same 2018 figures, emissions per capita — that is, emissions per person — in China is 8.40 tonnes.

In Australia it is 24.79 tonnes per person, one of the top 10 emitters in the world, behind oil-dependent countries such as Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait.

China's per person emissions are closest to those of Slovenia and Zimbabwe.

By way of comparison, the United States emits 17.74 tonnes per capita.

Emissions per country on a per capita basis between 1990 and 2018. (Climate Watch)

Both Australia and China have committed to reaching net zero emissions, but what about between now and then?

Where Australia has committed to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, China is aiming for 2060.

Australia has already begun reducing emissions, while China has committed to reaching its emissions peak before 2030.

At Glasgow, both nations have updated their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — the process by which countries pledge to cut emissions — in line with the goal of limiting global warming to below 2.0 degrees Celsius and ideally to 1.5C.

As well as the "net zero by 2050" target, Australia has committed to a range of technological goals aimed at lowering the cost of some abatement methods, such as carbon capture and storage, and low-emissions production, such as green steel and hydrogen.

China's updated NDC includes beginning a gradual phase-out of coal, starting in 2025, although it is still commissioning new, coal-fired power plants domestically.

It also pledges to increase the use of renewable energy to around 25 per cent and to install 1.2 billion kilowatts of solar and wind power by 2030.

The Climate Action Tracker — an independent analysis that collates government climate action around the world — has rated the actions of both China and Australia as "highly insufficient".

Scott Morrison's full speech to the UN Climate Summit in Glasgow.

Biggest emitter today vs biggest emitter over time?

While China is now the biggest annual emitter, when you tally up the cumulative emissions of each nation over more than a century, it is not the biggest culprit.

An analysis by a UK-based organisation, Carbon Brief, looked at carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted since the 1850s, given it is a particularly stable greenhouse gas.

It found that China has emitted 284 gigatonnes of CO2, while the US has released 509 gigatonnes over the same period, close to twice as much.

Australia's contribution since 1850 amounts to 35 gigatonnes.

Countries with largest cumulative emissions 1850 – 2021. (ClimateBrief.org)

The historical picture is relevant because the build-up of greenhouse gases over time directly correlates to global warming.

International talks to limit climate change to 1.5C or 2.0C of warming are dealing with emissions from last century as much as the present one.

Why does it matter what Australia does when it's responsible for 1.3 per cent of global emissions?

At the heart of debate over climate action is the divide between developed and developing countries.

The United States, United Kingdom, the European Union and Australia are among the highly industrialised countries that have been emitting greenhouse gases for more than a century.

Despite its extraordinary economic growth in recent decades, China describes itself as a developing country in these debates, given its widespread industrialisation — and significant emissions — started much later than other large economies.

In Glasgow, special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said China's large emissions were due to its "special development stage" and said his country would speed up emissions cuts later.

Developing countries say they should be given more time to cut their emissions, given they have not had the same amount of time to enjoy the benefits of industrialisation.

It is particularly pertinent in countries such as India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been pushing to bring electricity to households that have never had a power connection before.

The Paris Agreement seeks to address the inequity by providing finance to developing countries to assist with introducing renewable energy and with adapting to climate change.

However, not all the promised funding has materialised, adding to the sense of injustice felt by developing countries.

The developing countries are among the largest emitters but if smaller, highly-industrialised countries like Australia do not reduce their emissions, despite all their historical advantages, what compulsion is there upon other nations to act?

In a negotiation, it is not just about the numbers.

Links

• Fijian PM pushes Morrison to provide 'concrete plan' for halving emissions by 2030
• Queen calls on world leaders to write themselves 'into the history books'
• Biden takes aim at China and Russia at G20 as COP26 climate summit kicks off in Glasgow
• (AU AFR) Why Australia Is A Bigger Carbon Pariah Than We Think
• (AU SMH) Renewables Drive Australian Emissions Lower As Wind Records Blown Away
• (AU The Guardian) Australia Ranks Last For Climate Action Among UN Member Countries
• (The Conversation) Australia Is At Risk Of Taking The Wrong Tack At The Glasgow Climate Talks, And Slamming China Is Only Part Of It
• (The Guardian) Plans Of Four G20 States Are Threat To Global Climate Pledge, Warn Scientists
• China's Communist Party Knows How To Quell A Restive Population — But What About Its Environment?