Sunday, November 15, 2026

Earth’s thermostat is broken... - Julian Cribb

 Surviving the 21st Century - Julian Cribb

As COP31 gathers, the cadence of the human death-march grows

Portrait of Julian Cribb
AUTHOR
Julian Cribb AM is an Australian science writer and author of seven books on the human existential emergency. His latest book is How to Fix a Broken Planet (Cambridge University Press, 2023)

For a full week before humans met to discuss the overheating Earth at COP31 in Antalya, Turkiye, global surface air temperatures ran at +2 degrees - the hottest they have been since the industrial age began. The hottest modern humans have ever experienced.

While the world’s eyeballs remained glued to sundry elections, markets and small wars, the grim cadence of the human death-march has gathered fresh momentum, watched by the sleepless eyes of a constellation of Earth-observing satellites that note each small change in temperature on our fragile sphere. 

As in past years, two thirds of those attending the most consequential climate talks of our time are the genocides representing the fossil fuels sector. They outnumber the humans nearly two to one. 

Here, for those who have not yet been seduced into sacrificing their own grandchildren to oil shareholders, are some of the latest data points from the EU’s Copernicus.

1. Land temperatures have hit +2 degrees for the first time since 1850.

2. Sea surface temperatures are running from +1 to +3 degrees hotter across vast swathes of the world’s oceans: 

The +2 degree temperatures of early November do not mean that the planet’s year-round average has reached that point just yet. That is still around +1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. But they shout aloud that climate overshoot beyond +1.5 degrees (the 2015 Paris Agreement goal) is now inevitable – as the UN itself now concedes- even were the humans to overcome the genocides at COP31 and start putting in place some serious action to reel in global carbon emissions.

COP31 remains stubbornly determined to take an optimistic view of climate goals, proclaiming itself as ‘the transition from consensus to action’. It states its main objectives as:

· Zero waste (to cut methane emissions)

· Food security

· Healthier oceans

· Clean energy, with electricity’s share rising from 24% to 35% by 2035

· Green industry

· Climate-resilient cities

· Better healthcare

· Engaging the youth in fighting climate change

· Implementation of climate actions.

It declares its main visions are ‘rebuilding trust, shared commitments and turning commitments into action’. All of which the fossil fuels genocides will do their best to sabotage, delay, dilute or deny, as they have for the past decade.

The UN Environment Program (UNEP)’s report “Limiting Overshoot” acknowledges that overshoot is unavoidable, and that even in the most optimistic scenario puts peak temperature at +1.8 degrees C. Probably far worse.

“Exceedance of 1.5°C should not be interpreted as safe or acceptable; there are no benign scenarios with global temperature rise above this level,” says UNEP. The aim now is to ride the increases in temperature while aiming to cool the Earth back to +1.5 degrees by 2100, as task many deem impossible within human time frames.

“Risks and impacts include faster sea-level rise, a higher likelihood of collapse of ecosystems, more extreme heat and wildfires, and profound changes to ice sheets, permafrost and snow. There is a higher risk of irreversible tipping points to global systems such as the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest — which would reshape the world forever,” says UNEP.

Global air temperatures have again reached record levels. Source: Copernicus EU/Zeke Hausfather

Meanwhile back in the oilfields, exploration for new oil and gas shows no signs of slowing down, with the accent swinging to ‘high impact’ areas where the prospects for a big discovery are greatest. There are said to be 37 of these giant fields worldwide currently undergoing intensive exploration, chiefly in Latin America, Africa and theAsia-Pacific, and in deepwater regions.

Faced with the same inflationary costs as the rest of the world, fossil fuels corporates are turning to AI and data analysis to identify those fields with the best prospects for a ‘big strike’, while saving money on traditional discovery methods.

Faced with hostile pressure from the US, Russia and Norway the EU appears to be retreating from its call to ban Arctic oil extraction, in a further sign of the tyranny of the fossil fuels sector over the human future.

“Die, baby, die!”

Meanwhile, The Lancet Countdown report, issued just prior to COP31, has heralded current heating trends as a growing health emergency.

“Climate change is increasingly affecting health and threatening people’s survival worldwide, and the window of opportunity to avoid a potentially catastrophic future is rapidly closing. Weakening multilateralism and growing climate change disinformation, denialism, and scepticism are now increasingly undermining collective action and threatening to reverse progress to date,” the report says.

The Lancet team measured 54 indicators of human health over the past ten years finding “The past 11 years have been the hottest on record, and growing emissions mean overshooting the 1·5°C threshold is probably unavoidable – pushing the world beyond the limits needed to protect health.

“During 2016–23, heat was associated with an average of 540 800 deaths per year, of which 369 940 (68·4%) were attributable to human-caused climate change. Heat-related deaths reached a record-high of 710 000 estimated deaths globally in 2023, of which 71·5% can be attributed to climate change.

“More frequent heatwaves and extreme droughts are increasingly threatening food security. Droughts affected 51·8% of global land for at least 1 month in 2025—the second-highest level recorded. This trend has accelerated, with the affected area growing 704% faster in 2016–25 than in 2006–15.

Changing rainfall patterns have also driven an accelerated increase in the environmental spread of dengue virus, with a record 1.72 billion people now at risk.

“Because of the rapidly growing threats over the past decade, climate change has become a global health emergency. Addressing it requires urgent course-correction to deliver coordinated and evidence-based action across borders to protect health and survival.” The Lancet team concluded.

They warned that attempts to mitigate climate change were flagging due to the influence of the global fossil fuels industry: “The tightening grip of fossil fuels is pushing the world towards an increasingly dangerous future.”

Over the last decade governments had paid $6.2 trillion in subsidies to fossil fuels corporates – effectively paying oil companies to kill their own citizens and taxpayers.

“Lobbying and disinformation by fossil fuel interests and political allies continue to weaken support for action, countering the growing body of scientific literature on the links between health and climate change,” they said.

“With weakened political momentum, oil and gas companies are further expanding production plans. In March, 2026, the 100 largest oil and gas companies were projected to exceed production levels consistent with limiting heating to 1·5°C by 150% by 2040.”

“Oil and gas companies are reaping windfall profits and expanding their influence over an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.”

Faced with the growing butcher’s bill for oil, gas and coal, The Lancet urged participants in COP31 to view the reality of climate change as a human health emergency. But what do the oil barons care?

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Lethal Heating is a citizens' initiative