03/04/2016

A NASA First: Computer Model Links Glaciers, Global Sea Level

NASA - Pat Brennan, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

The "fingerprints" of sea level rise revealed by a new computer modeling method that links changes in glaciers, ice sheets, and continental water storage to relative sea levels worldwide. Bluer areas, near Greenland, reflect a loss of ice mass, counterintuitively resulting in a sea level drop. In redder areas, sea levels are rising faster than global-mean rates. This map shows the linear trend in sea-level change and covers the period from 2003 to 2015. Image courtesy Surendra Adhikari, JPL.
The "fingerprints" of sea level rise revealed by a new computer modeling method that links changes in glaciers, ice sheets, and continental water storage to relative sea levels worldwide. Bluer areas, near Greenland, reflect a loss of ice mass, counterintuitively resulting in a sea level drop. In redder areas, sea levels are rising faster than global-mean rates. This map shows the linear trend in sea-level change and covers the period from 2003 to 2015. Image courtesy Surendra Adhikari, JPL.



Even as computer models of a changing Earth grow ever more accurate, a major stumbling block remains: marrying models of ice, ocean, atmosphere, the solid Earth, and other components of the earth system to create a truly global picture.
A new modeling method takes a major step in that direction. Created by three members of NASA's Sea Level Change team, the new method allows researchers, for the first time, to weave high-resolution models of changes in individual glaciers into global models of relative sea level and solid Earth deformation, with great numerical accuracy and computational efficiency.
And because changes in ice mass leave their marks on Earth's gravitational and rotational fields—phenomena that generate so-called "sea level fingerprints"—the new model offers the possibility of precise, localized sea level forecasts.
One of the most fascinating and counter-intuitive features of these fingerprints is that sea level drops in the vicinity of a melting glacier, instead of rising as might be expected. The loss of ice mass reduces its gravitational attraction, and ocean water, no longer under its influence, migrates away. But far from the glacier, the water it has added to the ocean causes sea level to rise at a much greater rate.
With the new method, the loss of mass from a particular Antarctic outlet glacier, for example, could be tied directly to a sea level record at any tide gauge station around the globe.
"At Miami, in principle, we can isolate what fraction of observed sea level is due to what specific source—Jakobshavn Isbrae in Greenland, Pine Island Glacier in the West Antarctica, tidewater glaciers in Alaska, maybe others," said Surendra Adhikari, lead author of the paper announcing the discovery that was published on March 18. "(Another) application is that we can calculate sea level not only related to ice but also related to continental hydrology"—that is, the shifting of water mass on land through the action of storms, rivers, or even groundwater pumping.
The new modeling approach, discussed by Adhikari and co authors Erik Ivins and Eric Larour in the journal "Geoscientific Model Development," touches on much of the new technology and rapidly advancing knowledge that has transformed sea level research over the past two decades.
State-of-the-art simulation code originally dedicated to solving the ice-flow mechanics called the Ice Sheet System Model (ISSM; http://issm.jpl.nasa.gov/), also developed at JPL, served as the scaffolding upon which the new modeling method was built. But the heart of the new approach lies in the intricate mathematics – particularly the so-called Green's function formulation – of Earth's gravitational and rotational theory.
Green's function reveals the effects of a point of pressure on a sphere, such as a computer model of Earth, as it propagates away to its farthest point of influence—that is, 180 degrees away, on the opposite side of the sphere. The function allows modelers to trace the gradations of influence of such pressure: a strong indentation at the source, gradually weakening as it recedes.
The research team used an "unstructured mesh," a way of dividing up Earth's surface into manageable chunks that can be recombined by calculations to simulate changes—melting Antarctic glaciers, perhaps, or giant rainstorms that deposit large masses of water in South America.
Structured meshes have been used for years in global sea level modeling. But these have chunks of uniform size, like a huge fishing net thrown over the planet. With these traditional approaches it is virtually impossible to capture, for example, kilometer-scale glacial changes while also calculating global-scale relative sea level.
The new method keeps the larger chunks, or units, of mesh in places where deeply detailed simulations are unneeded—for instance, the middle of the Pacific Ocean. But in places where fine-grained detail is essential, such as jagged coastlines or the locations of melting glaciers, the model's mesh units can shrink to kilometer-scale sizes.
"This not only allows the model to capture subtle changes in glaciers and other small-scale phenomena within a global context, but also keeps computing time and the amount of data that must be fed into the model to manageable proportions," Adhikari said.
Adhikari's novel insight was to combine the unstructured mesh with a Green's function representation of relative sea level theory. This makes it possible to capture high-resolution glacial changes in the context of global-scale relative sea level. Larour, who leads about a dozen ISSM researchers from JPL and the University of California, Irvine, said, "the method opens up a new range of possibilities in terms of tightly coupling ice-flow and sea-level rise at a resolution compatible with regional scale projections."
The new model allows global projections of sea level change "while at the same time allowing the grounding line of the ice sheet to be fully connected to the modeled regional and global sea level position," Ivins said. "A natural by-product of the model is the ability to predict the full set of geodetic observables (3-D crustal motions, tilt, change in center of mass – center of figure offset, J2, and variations in earth rotation, absolute sea-level, gravity anomaly etc.) that NASA currently is heavily invested in."

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Why Fixing Climate Change Is Women’s Work

 YES! Magazine - 

Natural resource scarcity and unpredictable weather affect women first, yet they're often the last to be heard on how to combat it. That's slowly changing.

Mairi Tuji of Ethiopia's Kelecho Gerbi village collecting water from the new well. Photo courtesy of Water1st International.

Marla Smith-Nilson has completed more than 1,500 water sanitation projects as founder and executive director of Water1st International, but there's a moment she still anticipates at the completion of each one.
At every ribbon-cutting ceremony for new groundwater wells, a woman from the community—whether in Bangladesh, Honduras, Ethiopia, or India—stands on stage with a large pot that has served as her companion during daily, mile-long treks to the river. Sometimes the woman is young. Sometimes she's as old as 75. She raises the pot over her head and shouts "I will never carry this again!" before smashing it to the ground where it explodes into shards.
The community laughs as the pot shatters, but it's the women in the crowd who feel the most relief. As primary caregivers, many women in poorer countries are responsible for trekking miles to collect water and fuel. When climate change depletes water, women notice first. Water is a climate change issue, and climate change is a women's issue.
"Women are the first to be affected by climate change in every single country in the world," said Yannick Glemarec, deputy executive director of United Nations Women, adding that women in so-called developing countries are hit the hardest.
As climate change puts pressure on natural resources, fresh water is becoming scarcer, food prices are increasing, and infectious illnesses like the Zika virus are on the rise. Worldwide, women tend to be poorer than their male counterparts and have less representation in policymaking. All this means they are the first to be affected by climate change and the last to be heard on how to combat it.
Smith-Nilson has spent 25 years working with so-called developing communities around the world and says her clients are already suffering from the effects of climate change. Many have always walked long distances to find water, but as sources dry up, those treks are becoming more difficult. Searching remote areas for fuel and water exposes them to greater risks of violence like rape or kidnapping.
Droughts, unpredictable rains, and saltwater intrusion on freshwater sources are slashing crop yields and driving up food prices. Since 1990, an area nearly the size of South Africa has been deforested, and drought has impacted 2 billion people, according to the U.N.
Water is a climate change issue, and climate change is a women's issue.
Additionally, natural disasters catalyzed by climate change—such as landslides and tropical cyclones—impact women more than men. The destruction scatters communities, leaving women vulnerable and without social safety nets to protect them from organized traffickers.
Smith-Nilson recalls Mari Tuji of Ethiopia's Kelecho Gerbi village. Tuji used to spend six hours every day hauling contaminated water from the community's only drinking-water source. As her children fell sick from the water, she walked even farther to another village for medicine. The drugs were expensive and sometimes unavailable. This vicious cycle became Tuji's daily routine.
Mairi Tuji of Ethiopia's Kelecho Gerbi village used to spend six hours a day hauling water. Photo courtesy of Water1st International.
However, the people most likely to be hurt by climate change are also the ones best positioned to fix it, Glemarec said.
U.N. Women operates several programs worldwide that increase women's participation in policy talks and provide women entrepreneurs and farmers with access to financing, information, and time- and energy-saving technology. One such initiative in Mali provides women with solar- and gas-powered mills, freezers, and lamps, which allow them to make products like syrup, jam, and juice to sell in the farming offseason. Efficient stoves also reduce the time Malian women spend gathering fuel.
Smith-Nilson says she has focused her work on ways to give women a voice. Women lead water councils, collect fees, and suggest repairs. They walk from house to house teaching their neighbors about hygiene. The women she works with may be shy initially, but they eventually feel excited to have a role in their water projects. After all, they are most affected by time loss and back pain from hauling water daily.
Giving women this power can be a challenge in male-dominated societies.
"I think it's an issue we've been talking about for 30 years in the field but we have a long way to go in how you can involve women in projects," Smith-Nilson said. "We can't force women to be on water committees or force their husbands to let them on committees. We can convince them it's in the women's long term interest that they be involved."
Water1st conducts role-playing exercises with men to show them how challenging it can be to care for a child while collecting water. It encourages men to share with peers the usefulness of having female voices on councils. Tuji—whose family was constantly sick from their river water—was involved on the water council when Water1st installed a well in her community.
"It's in the women's long term interest that they be involved."
Women in wealthier nations may not experience the effects of climate change with the same immediacy, but they are similarly worried. A 2015 Pew research study found that while the concern over climate change is equal between genders in so-called developing countries, women in wealthier nations are more likely than their male counterparts to see climate change as a real and pressing personal threat. Correspondingly, European women use 22 percent less energy than men and are more likely to change their behavior to conserve energy.
There is good reason for this: In developed countries, women make an average of 79 cents for every dollar made by men. That means women—especially single mothers—may be more likely to feel the effects of increased food and energy prices. Eighty-four percent of single-parent households in the United States are headed by women, and 36 percent of those women live below the poverty line, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
And, similarly to their counterparts in poorer countries, women in developed countries are generally not in positions to be heard on climate change. Only 28 percent of environmental scientists and geoscientists are women, according to a 2014 Bureau of Labor and Statistics report. Globally, the United Nations reports that women make up only 20 percent of the renewable energy workforce, 4 percent of energy council chairs, and 18 percent of world energy council secretaries.
"We need to focus on women's leadership development and building finance skills, policy skills, and how to move [women] to positions of power in government and business," said Francesca Vietor, program director of environment, public policy, and civic engagement at The San Francisco Foundation.
Only 28 percent of environmental scientists and geoscientists are women.
Vietor's work at the foundation tries to help this development by supporting programs that provide clean energy tools and opportunities for frontline communities. The foundation is one of many funders that works with the Greenlining Institute and its partners in the SB 535 Coalition to ensure that money from California's cap and trade program supports disadvantaged communities combating climate change. This money pays for projects like solar systems for residents, redesigned homes for energy efficiency, affordable housing near public transit centers, and large vans to help farmers carpool to work.
The program has also provided jobs in solar energy. Norma Alvarado is one of two females installing solar panels in a four-year apprenticeship program with the Fresno Ironworkers Union Local 155. She  commutes past lawns of brown grass sizzling in the March heat. Air pollution causes many children to develop severe asthma, and Alvarado was no exception.
While Fresno and its residents are experiencing climate change first-hand, Alvarado sees how her work installing solar panels helps address the problems. "At first I didn't see it that way," she said. "Now that I'm participating in solar panel projects, I do feel like I have a part in solving the air pollution where before I didn't feel like it."
Though she was initially intimidated to be one of the few women in the field, she said she now feels accepted in the Ironworker's "brotherhood." Still, she said she'd like to see more women in the ranks.
"It's important to have women in trades because it gives people a different perspective of what women can do, and I think a lot of guys doubt women and feel they can't do a man's job," Alvarado said.
Clearly, there's room for a shift in gender role perceptions as more women work to address climate change.
In Ethiopia, Tuji's life has transformed since being relieved of the burden of hauling water six hours per day. After just a year with well water, Tuji's family is no longer sick. She can now afford to invest in her farm with the money and time she has saved by not having to buy medicine or carry water for miles. When Smith-Nilson caught up with the family last year, Tuji introduced her new baby, Chala, which in the Oromo language means "the best." She said it's a reference to the best time of her life, after the well came to her community.

Mairi Tuji and her child Chala, which means "the best" in the Oromo language. The name represents the best time of her life—after the well came to her village. Photo courtesy of Water1st International.

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Adani's Carmichael Coalmine Leases Approved By Queensland

The Guardian - Australian Associated Press

Decision a major step forward for $21.7bn coalmine, which green groups warn with fuel global warming and compound threats to Great Barrier Reef


coal
The three mining leases granted for Adani's Carmichael coalmine cover an area estimated to contain 11bn tonnes of thermal coal. Photograph: Bloomberg via Getty Images
The Queensland government has granted three mining leases for Adani's multi-billion dollar Carmichael coalmine, which will be the largest in Australia. Environmental groups say the mine will fuel global warming and compound threats to the world heritage-listed Great Barrier Reef amid one of its worst coral bleaching events on record.
The premier, Annastacia Palaszczuk, and the mines minister, Anthony Lynham, made the announcement in Mackay on Sunday.
The premier put the value of the project at $21.7bn, and said the approvals meant thousands of new jobs were now a step closer to reality."Some approvals are still required before construction can start, and ultimately committing to the project will be a decision for Adani," Palaszczuk said.
"However, I know the people of north and central Queensland will welcome this latest progress for the potential jobs and economic development it brings closer for their communities."
She said stringent conditions would ensure the health of the reef and the environment, and the interests of traditional owners.
The three leases, over the mine site 160km north-west of Clermont, cover an area estimated to contain 11bn tonnes of thermal coal.
Adani has estimated the mine, rail and port project will generate more than 5,000 jobs at the peak of construction and more than 4,500 jobs at the peak of operations.Earlier on Sunday, the Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) questioned whether Adani had pressured the mines minister to abandon his stated concerns about granting mining licences before court challenges had concluded.
ACF is challenging federal approvals for the mine in the federal court, with a hearing set down for early May. Traditional owners have also launched a separate case.
In announcing the approvals, Lynham said the approvals and the conditions attached were evidence of his government's commitment to the sustainable development of the Galilee basin, and the jobs and opportunities the mine would create.
The announcement came as the federal government's own marine science agency warned water quality targets designed to protect the reef are unlikely to be met.
Australian Institute of Marine Science researchers said water quality targets – set out in the Reef 2050 Plan, and aimed at warding off a Unesco decision to list the reef as in danger – would likely not be met under existing policies dealing with land-based pollution.
Adani said the approvals meant it could proceed to the next stage of development but acknowledged ongoing uncertainty from unresolved legal challenges "by politically-motivated activists".
It said a final investment decision would not be made until the court challenges were resolved, and it had secured the final approvals it needs."Having previously sought to progress to the construction phase in 2015, Adani is keenly aware of the risks of proceeding on major works in advance of the conclusion of these matters," the company said in a statement.
It also took a swipe at processes it said had held up a very significant project for Australia.
"The granting of the mining lease, coupled with strict and rigorous science-based environmental approvals, underlines the importance of major projects in Queensland, and in Australia more broadly, not being subject to endless red tape, after approving authorities have exhaustively examined them over some six years."

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02/04/2016

Generation Anthropocene: How Humans Have Altered The Planet For Ever

The Guardian - Robert Macfarlane

We are living in the Anthropocene age, in which human influence on the planet is so profound – and terrifying – it will leave its legacy for millennia. Politicians and scientists have had their say, but how are writers and artists responding to this crisis?
Illustration by Eric Petersen


In 2003 the Australian philosopher Glenn Albrecht coined the term solastalgia to mean a "form of psychic or existential distress caused by environmental change". Albrecht was studying the effects of long-term drought and large-scale mining activity on communities in New South Wales, when he realised that no word existed to describe the unhappiness of people whose landscapes were being transformed about them by forces beyond their control. He proposed his new term to describe this distinctive kind of homesickness.
Where the pain of nostalgia arises from moving away, the pain of solastalgia arises from staying put. Where the pain of nostalgia can be mitigated by return, the pain of solastalgia tends to be irreversible. Solastalgia is not a malady specific to the present – we might think of John Clare as a solastalgic poet, witnessing his native Northamptonshire countryside disrupted by enclosure in the 1810s – but it has flourished recently. "A worldwide increase in ecosystem distress syndromes," wrote Albrecht, is "matched by a corresponding increase in human distress syndromes". Solastalgia speaks of a modern uncanny, in which a familiar place is rendered unrecognisable by climate change or corporate action: the home become suddenly unhomely around its inhabitants.
Albrecht's coinage is part of an emerging lexis for what we are increasingly calling the "Anthropocene": the new epoch of geological time in which human activity is considered such a powerful influence on the environment, climate and ecology of the planet that it will leave a long-term signature in the strata record. And what a signature it will be. We have bored 50m kilometres of holes in our search for oil. We remove mountain tops to get at the coal they contain. The oceans dance with billions of tiny plastic beads. Weaponry tests have dispersed artificial radionuclides globally. The burning of rainforests for monoculture production sends out killing smog-palls that settle into the sediment across entire countries. We have become titanic geological agents, our legacy legible for millennia to come.
Rainforest burning in Brazil, 1989. Photograph: Sipa Press / Rex Features


The idea of the Anthropocene asks hard questions of us. Temporally, it requires that we imagine ourselves inhabitants not just of a human lifetime or generation, but also of "deep time" – the dizzyingly profound eras of Earth history that extend both behind and ahead of the present. Politically, it lays bare some of the complex cross-weaves of vulnerability and culpability that exist between us and other species, as well as between humans now and humans to come. Conceptually, it warrants us to consider once again whether – in Fredric Jameson's phrase – "the modernisation process is complete, and nature is gone for good", leaving nothing but us.
There are good reasons to be sceptical of the epitaphic impulse to declare "the end of nature". There are also good reasons to be sceptical of the Anthropocene's absolutism, the political presumptions it encodes, and the specific histories of power and violence that it masks. But the Anthropocene is a massively forceful concept, and as such it bears detailed thinking through. Though it has its origin in the Earth sciences and advanced computational technologies, its consequences have rippled across global culture during the last 15 years. Conservationists, environmentalists, policymakers, artists, activists, writers, historians, political and cultural theorists, as well as scientists and social scientists in many specialisms, are all responding to its implications. A Stanford University team has boldly proposed that – living as we are through the last years of one Earth epoch, and the birth of another – we belong to "Generation Anthropocene".
Literature and art are confronted with particular challenges by the idea of the Anthropocene. Old forms of representation are experiencing drastic new pressures and being tasked with daunting new responsibilities. How might a novel or a poem possibly account for our authorship of global-scale environmental change across millennia – let alone shape the nature of that change? The indifferent scale of the Anthropocene can induce a crushing sense of the cultural sphere's impotence.
Plastic and rubbish floating in the ocean. Photograph: Gary Bell/zefa/Corbis


Yet as the notion of a world beyond us has become difficult to sustain, so a need has grown for fresh vocabularies and narratives that might account for the kinds of relation and responsibility in which we find ourselves entangled. "Nature," Raymond Williams famously wrote in Keywords (1976), "is perhaps the most complex word in the language." Four decades on, there is no "perhaps" about it.
Projects are presently under way around the world to gain the most basic of purchases on the Anthropocene – a lexis with which to reckon it. Cultural anthropologists in America have begun a glossary for what they call "an Anthropocene as yet unseen", intended as a "resource" for confronting the "urgent concerns of the present moment". There, familiar terms – petroleum, melt, distribution, dream – are made strange again, vested with new resilience or menace when viewed through the "global optic" of the Anthropocene.
Last year I started the construction of a crowdsourced Anthropocene glossary called the "Desecration Phrasebook", and in 2014 The Bureau of Linguistical Reality was founded "for the purpose of collecting, translating and creating a new vocabulary for the Anthropocene". Albrecht's solastalgia is one of the bureau's terms, along with "stieg", "apex-guilt" and "shadowtime", the latter meaning "the sense of living in two or more orders of temporal scale simultaneously" – an acknowledgment of the out-of-jointness provoked by Anthropocene awareness. Many of these words are, clearly, ugly coinages for an ugly epoch. Taken in sum, they speak of our stuttering attempts to describe just what it is we have done.The word "Anthropocene" itself entered the Oxford English Dictionary surprisingly late, along with "selfie" and "upcycle", in June 2014 – 15 years after it is generally agreed to have first been used in its popular sense.
In 1999, at a conference in Mexico City on the Holocene – the Earth epoch we at present officially inhabit, beginning around 11,700 years ago – the Nobel prize-winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen was struck by the inaccuracy of the Holocene designation. "I suddenly thought this was wrong," he later recalled. "The world has changed too much. So I said, 'No, we are in the Anthropocene.' I just made the word up on the spur of the moment. But it seems to have stuck."
The following year, Crutzen and Eugene Stoermer – an American diatom specialist who had been using the term informally since the 1980s – jointly published an article proposing that the Anthropocene should be considered a new Earth epoch, on the grounds that "mankind will remain a major geological force for many millennia, maybe millions of years to come". The scientific community took the Crutzen-Stoermer proposal seriously enough to submit it to the rigours of the stratigraphers.
Stratigraphy is an awesomely stringent discipline. Stratigraphers are at once the archivists, monks and philosophers of the Earth sciences. Their specialism is the division of deep time into aeons, eras, periods, epochs and stages, and the establishment of temporal limits for those divisions and their subdivisions. Their bible is the International Chronostratigraphic Chart, the beautiful document that archives Earth history from the present back to the "informal" aeon of the Hadean, between 4bn and 4.6bn years ago ("informal" because vanishingly little is known about it). Being a geo-geek, I sometimes mutter the mnemonics of the ICS as I cycle to work, trying to get the sequences straight: Cows Often Sit Down Carefully. Perhaps Their Joints Creak? – Cambrian, Ordovician, Silurian, Devonian, Carboniferous, Permian, Triassic, Jurassic, Cretaceous …
'What will survive of us is love', wrote Philip Larkin. Wrong. What will survive of us is plastic
The Anthropocene Working Group of the Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy – a title straight out of Gormenghast – was created in 2009. It was charged with delivering two recommendations: whether the Anthropocene should be formalised as an epoch and, if so, when it began. Among the baselines considered by the group have been the first recorded use of fire by hominins around 1.8m years ago, the dawn of agriculture around 8,000 years ago and the Industrial Revolution.
The group's report is due within months. Recent publications indicate that they will recommend the designation of the Anthropocene, and that the "stratigraphically optimal" temporal limit will be located somewhere in the mid-20th century. This places the start of the Anthropocene simultaneous with the start of the nuclear age. It also coincides with the so-called "Great Acceleration", when massive increases occurred in population, carbon emissions, species invasions and extinctions, and when the production and discard of metals, concrete and plastics boomed.
Manila Bay in the Philippines covered with plastic bags and rubbish. Photograph: Joshua Mark Dalupang/EPA



Plastics in particular are being taken as a key marker for the Anthropocene, giving rise to the inevitable nickname of the "Plasticene". We currently produce around 100m tonnes of plastic globally each year. Because plastics are inert and difficult to degrade, some of this plastic material will find its way into the strata record. Among the future fossils of the Anthropocene, therefore, might be the trace forms not only of megafauna and nano-planktons, but also shampoo bottles and deodorant caps – the strata that contain them precisely dateable with reference to the product-design archives of multinationals. "What will survive of us is love", wrote Philip Larkin. Wrong. What will survive of us is plastic – and lead-207, the stable isotope at the end of the uranium-235 decay chain.
The Deutsches Museum in Munich is currently hosting "An Anthropocene Wunderkammer", which it calls "the first major exhibition in the world" to take the Anthropocene as its theme. Among the exhibits is a remarkable work by the American writer and conservation biologist Julianne Lutz Warren, entitled "Hopes Echo". It concerns the huia, an exquisite bird of New Zealand that was made extinct in the early 20th century due to habitat destruction, introduced predators and overhunting for its black and ivory tail feathers. The huia vanished before field-recording technologies existed, but a version of its song has survived by means of an eerie series of preservations: a sound fossil. In order to lure the birds to their snares, the Maori people learned to mimic the huia song. This mimicked song was passed down between generations, a practice that continued even after the huia was gone. In 1954 a pakeha (a European New Zealander) called RAL Bateley made a recording of a Maori man, Henare Hkamana, whistling his imitation of the huia's call.
Warren's exhibit makes Bateley's crackly recording available, and her accompanying text unfolds the complexities of its sonic strata. It is, as Warren puts it, "a soundtrack of the sacred voices of extinct birds echoing in that of a dead man echoing out of a machine echoing through the world today". The intellectual elegance of her work – and its exemplary quality as an Anthropocene-aware artefact – lies in its subtle tracing of the technological and imperial histories involved in a single extinction event and its residue.
Anthropocene art is, unsurprisingly, obsessed with loss and disappearance. We are living through what is popularly known as the "sixth great extinction". A third of all amphibian species are at risk of extinction. A fifth of the globe's 5,500 known mammals are classified as endangered, threatened or vulnerable. The current extinction rate for birds may be faster than any recorded across the 150m years of avian evolutionary history. We exist in an ongoing biodiversity crisis – but register that crisis, if at all, as an ambient hum of guilt, easily faded out. Like other unwholesome aspects of the Anthropocene, we mostly respond to mass extinction with stuplimity: the aesthetic experience in which astonishment is united with boredom, such that we overload on anxiety to the point of outrage-outage.
Art and literature might, at their best, shock us out of the stuplime. Warren's haunted study of the huia finds its own echo in the prose and poetry of Richard Skelton and Autumn Richardson. Their work – sometimes jointly authored – is minutely attentive to the specificities of the gone and the will-be-gone. Place names and plant names assume the status of chants or litanies: spectral taxa incanted as elegy, or as a means to conjure back. In Succession (2013), Skelton and Richardson studied palynological records to reconstruct lists of the grasses and flowers that flourished in the western Lake District after the end of the Pleistocene. The area "is still inhabited by the ghosts of lost flora and fauna", writes Richardson, of which there are "traces that even now, centuries later, can be uncovered and celebrated". Diagrams for the Summoning of Wolves (2015), a purely musical work, shifts from celebration to intervention: it is intended as a performative utterance – a series of notes, rituals and gestures that might somehow enable "the return itself".
Rory Gibb smartly notes that the work of Skelton and Richardson is different in kind from conventional eco-elegy: it evokes "a more feral feeling of being stalked by ecosystemic memory". Such a feeling is appropriate to the Anthropocene, in which we have erased entire biomes and crashed whole ecosystems. Their writing often moves back through the Holocene and into its prior epochs, before sliding forwards to imaginary far futures. They send ghost emissaries – foxes, wolves, pollen grains, stones – back and forth along these deep-time lines. Instead of the intimacies and connections urged by conventional "green" literature, writing like this speaks of a darker ecological impulse, in which salvation and self-knowledge can no longer be found in a mountain peak or stooping falcon, and categories such as the picturesque or even the beautiful congeal into kitsch.
Perhaps the greatest challenge posed to our imagination by the Anthropocene is its inhuman organisation as an event. If the Anthropocene can be said to "take place", it does so across huge scales of space and vast spans of time, from nanometers to planets, and from picoseconds to aeons. It involves millions of different teleconnected agents, from methane molecules to rare earth metals to magnetic fields to smartphones to mosquitoes. Its energies are interactive, its properties emergent and its structures withdrawn.
In 2010 Timothy Morton adopted the term hyperobject to denote some of the characteristic entities of the Anthropocene. Hyperobjects are "so massively distributed in time, space and dimensionality" that they defy our perception, let alone our comprehension. Among the examples Morton gives of hyperobjects are climate change, mass species extinction and radioactive plutonium. "In one sense [hyperobjects] are abstractions," he notes, "in another they are ferociously, catastrophically real."
We exist in an ongoing bio­diversity crisis – but register that crisis as an ambient hum of guilt, easily faded out
Creative non-fiction, and especially reportage, has adapted most quickly to this "distributed" aspect of the Anthropocene. Episodic in assembly and dispersed in geography, some outstanding recent non-fiction has proved able to map intricate patterns of environmental cause and effect, and in this way draw hyperobjects into at least partial visibility. Elizabeth Kolbert's The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History (2014) and her Field Notes from a Catastrophe (2006) are landmarks here, as is Naomi Klein's This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs the Climate (2014). In 2015 Gaia Vince published Adventures in the Anthropocene, perhaps the best book so far to trace the epoch's impacts on the world's poor, and the slow violence that climate change metes out to them.
Last year also saw the publication of The Mushroom at the End of the World: On the Possibility of Life in Capitalist Ruins, by the American anthropologist Anna Tsing. Tsing takes as her subject one of the "strangest commodity chains of our times": that of the matsutake, supposedly the most valuable fungus in the world, which grows best in "human-disturbed forests". Written in what she calls "a riot of short chapters, like the flushes of mushrooms that come up after rain", Tsing's book describes a contemporary "nature" that is hybrid and multiply interbound. Her ecosystems stretch from wood-wide webs of mycelia, through earthworms and pine roots, to logging trucks and hedge funds – as well as down into the flora of our own multispecies guts. Tsing's account of nature thus overcomes what Jacques RanciĆØre has called the "partition of the sensible", by which he means the traditional division of matter into "life" and "not-life". Like Skelton in his recent Beyond the Fell Wall (2015), and the poet Sean Borodale, Tsing is interested in a vibrant materialism that acknowledges the agency of stones, ores and atmospheres, as well as humans and other organisms.
Tom Hardy in Mad Max: Fury Road. Photograph: Alamy


Tsing is also concerned with the possibility of what she calls "collaborative survival" in the Anthropocene-to-come. As Evans Calder Williams notes, the Anthropocene imagination "crawls with narratives of survival", in which varying conditions of resource scarcity exist, and varying kinds of salvage are practised. Our contemporary appetite for environmental breakdown is colossal, tending to grotesque: from Cormac McCarthy's The Road (2006) – now almost an Anthropocene ur-text – through films such as The Survivalist and the Mad Max franchise, to The Walking Dead and the Fallout video game series.
The worst of this collapse culture is artistically crude and politically crass. The best is vigilant and provocative: Simon Ings' Wolves (2014), for instance, James Bradley's strange and gripping Clade (2015), or Paul Kingsnorth's The Wake (2014), a post-apocalyptic novel set in the "blaec", "brok" landscape of 11th-century England, that warns us not to defer our present crisis. I think also of Clare Vaye Watkins's glittering Gold Fame Citrus (2015), which occurs in a drought-scorched American southwest and includes a field-guide to the neo-fauna of this dunescape: the "ouroboros rattlesnake", the "Mojave ghost crab".
Such scarcity narratives unsettle what we might call the Holocene delusion on which growth economics is founded: of the Earth as an infinite body of matter, there for the incredible ultra-machine of capitalism to process, exploit and discard without heed of limit. Meanwhile, however, speculative novelists – Andy Weir in The Martian, Kim Stanley Robinson in Red Mars – foresee how we will overcome terrestrial shortages by turning to asteroid mining or the terra-forming of Mars. To misquote Fredric Jameson, it is easier to imagine the extraction of off-planet resources than it is to imagine the end of capitalism.
The novel is the cultural form to which the Anthropocene arguably presents most difficulties, and most opportunities. Historically, the novel has been celebrated for its ability to represent human interiority: the skull-to-skull skip of free indirect style, or the vivid flow of stream-of-consciousness. But what use are such skills when addressing the enormity of this new epoch? Any Anthropocene-aware novel finds itself haunted by impersonal structures, and intimidated by the limits of individual agency. China MiĆ©ville's 2011 short story "Covehithe" cleverly probes and parodies these anxieties. In a near-future Suffolk, animate oil rigs haul themselves out of the sea, before drilling down into the coastal strata to lay dozens of rig eggs. These techno-zombies prove impervious to military interventions: at last, all that humans can do is become spectators, snapping photos of the rigs and watching live feeds from remote cameras as they give birth – an Anthropocene Springwatch.
'It's easier to imagine the extraction of off-planet resources than it is to imagine the end of capitalism' … Matt Damon in The Martian. Photograph: Moviestore/REX Shutterstock


Most memorable to me is Jeff VanderMeer's 2014 novel, Annihilation. It describes an expedition into an apparently poisoned region known as Area X, in which relic human structures have been not just reclaimed but wilfully redesigned by a mutated nature. A specialist team is sent to survey the zone. They discover archive caches and topographically anomalous buildings including a "Tower" that descends into the earth rather than jutting from it. The Tower's steps are covered in golden slime, and on its walls crawls a "rich greenlike moss" that inscribes letters and words on the masonry – before entering and authoring the bodies of the explorers themselves. It gradually becomes apparent that Area X, in all its weird wildness, is actively transforming the members of the expedition who have been sent to subdue it with science. As such, VanderMeer's novel brilliantly reverses the hubris of the Anthropocene: instead of us leaving the world post-natural, it suggests, the world will leave us post-human.
As the idea of the Anthropocene has surged in power, so its critics have grown in number and strength. Cultural and literary studies currently abound with Anthropocene titles: most from the left, and often bitingly critical of their subject. The last 12 months have seen the publication of Jedediah Purdy's After Nature: A Politics for the Anthropocene, McKenzie Wark's provocative Molecular Red: Theory for the Anthropocene and the environmental historian Jason W Moore's important Capitalism in the Web of Life. Last July the "revolutionary arts and letters quarterly" Salvage launched with an issue that included Daniel Hartley's essay "Against the Anthropocene" and MiƩville, superbly, on despair and environmental justice in the new epoch.
Across these texts and others, three main objections recur: that the idea of the Anthropocene is arrogant, universalist and capitalist-technocratic. Arrogant, because the designation of the Anthropocene – the "New Age of Humans" – is our crowning act of self-mythologisation (we are the super-species, we the Prometheans, we have ended nature), and as such only embeds the narcissist delusions that have produced the current crisis.
Universalist, because the Anthropocene assumes a generalised anthropos, whereby all humans are equally implicated and all equally affected. As Purdy, MiĆ©ville and Moore point out, "we" are not all in the Anthropocene together – the poor and the dispossessed are far more in it than others. "Wealthy countries," writes Purdy, "create a global landscape of inequality in which the wealthy find their advantages multiplied … In this neoliberal Anthropocene, free contract within a global market launders inequality through voluntariness."
Perhaps the Anthropocene has already become an anthropomeme: its presence in popular discourse just a virtue signal
And capitalist-technocratic, because the dominant narrative of the Anthropocene has technology as its driver: recent Earth history reduced to a succession of inventions (fire, the combustion engine, the synthesis of plastic, nuclear weaponry). The monolithic concept bulk of this scientific Anthropocene can crush the subtleties out of both past and future, disregarding the roles of ideology, empire and political economy. Such a technocratic narrative will also tend to encourage technocratic solutions: geoengineering as a quick-fix for climate change, say, or the Anthropocene imagined as a pragmatic problem to be managed, such that "Anthropocene science" is translated smoothly into "Anthropocene policy" within existing structures of governance. Moore argues that the Anthropocene is not the geology of a species at all, but rather the geology of a system, capitalism – and as such should be rechristened the Capitalocene.
There are signs that we will soon be exhausted by the Anthropocene: glutted by its ubiquity as a cultural shorthand, fatigued by its imprecisions, and enervated by its variant names – the "Anthrobscene", the "Misanthropocene", the "Lichenocene" (actually, that last one is mine). Perhaps the Anthropocene has already become an anthropomeme: punned and pimped into stuplimity, its presence in popular discourse often just a virtue signal that merely mandates the user to proceed with the work of consumption.
I think, though, that the Anthropocene has administered – and will administer – a massive jolt to the imagination. Philosophically, it is a concept that does huge work both for us and on us. In its unsettlement of the entrenched binaries of modernity (nature and culture; object and subject), and its provocative alienation of familiar anthropocentric scales and times, it opens up rather than foreclosing progressive thought. What Christophe Bonneuil calls the "shock of the Anthropocene" is generating new political arguments, new modes of behaviour, new narratives, new languages and new creative forms. It asserts – as Jeremy Davies writes at the end of his excellent forthcoming book, The Birth of the Anthropocene – a "pressing need to re-imagine human and nonhuman life outside the confines of the Holocene", while also asking "how best to keep faith with the web of relationships, dependencies, and symbioses that made up the planetary system of the dying epoch". Systemic in its structure, the Anthropocene charges us with systemic change.
In 1981 the research field of "nuclear semiotics" was born. A group of interdisciplinary experts was tasked with preventing future humans from intruding on to a subterranean storage facility for radioactive waste, then under construction in the New Mexico desert. The half-life of plutonium-239 is around 24,100 years; the written history of humanity is around 5,000 years old. The challenge facing the group was how to devise a sign system that could semantically survive even catastrophic phases of planetary future, and that could communicate with an unknown humanoid-to-be.
Construction of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico, an underground nuclear waste dump. Photograph: Eric Draper/AP


Several proposals involved forms of hostile architecture: a "landscape of thorns" in which 15m-high concrete pillars with jutting side spikes impeded access; a maze of sharp black rock blocks that absorbed solar energy to become impassably hot. But such aggressive structures can act as enticements rather than cautions, suggesting here be treasure rather than here be dragons. Prince Charming hacked his way through the briars to wake Sleeping Beauty. Indiana Jones braved wooden spikes and rolling boulders to reach the golden idol in a booby-trapped Peruvian temple. Sometimes I wonder if the design task should be handed wholesale to the team behind the Ikea instruction manuals: if they can convey in pictograms how to put up a Billy bookcase anywhere in the world, they can surely tell someone in 10,000 years' time not to dig in a certain place.
The New Mexico facility is due to be sealed in 2038. The present plans for marking the site involve a berm with a core of salt, enclosing the above-ground footprint of the repository. Buried in the berm will be radar reflectors, magnets and a "Storage Room", constructed around a stone slab too big to be removed via the chamber entrance. Data will be inscribed on to the slab including maps, time lines, and scientific details of the waste and its risks, written in all current official UN languages, and in Navajo: "This site was known as the WIPP (Waste Isolation Pilot Plant Site) when it was closed in 2038 AD … Do not expose this room unless the information centre messages are lost. Leave the room buried for future generations." Discs made of ceramic, clay, glass and metal, also engraved with warnings, will be embedded in the soil and the shaft seals. Finally, a "hot cell", or radiation containment chamber, will be constructed: a reinforced concrete structure extending 60 feet above the earth and 30 feet down into it: VanderMeer's "Tower" made real.
I think of that configuration of berm, chamber, shaft, disc and hot cell – all set atop the casks of pulsing radioactive molecules entombed deep in the Permian strata – as perhaps our purest Anthropocene architecture. And I think of those multiply repeated incantations – pitched somewhere between confession, caution and black mass; leave the room buried for future generations, leave the room buried for future generations … – as perhaps our most perfected Anthropocene text.

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Shift To Zero-Carbon Power Must Start By 2018 To Avoid Extra Warming: Study

Fairfax - Peter Hannam

Some 14,000 megawatts (MW) of wind or solar plants are seeking approval.
Some 14,000 megawatts (MW) of wind or solar plants are seeking approval. Photo: Fairfax

The world must begin the shift to zero-carbon sources of electricity as soon as 2018 to avoid adding new fossil-fuel power plants that will lock in dangerous climate change, according to a team of Oxford University researchers.
Taking the average operating life of coal or gas-fired plants as 40 years, the world's fleet of carbon-emitting power stations had already committed by 2014 a total of 87 per cent of the emissions required to ensure a 50-50 chance of reaching two degrees of warming compared with pre-industrial levels.
By 2017, the remaining stock of potential emissions will have been locked in, necessitating a transition to renewable or zero-emissions electricity from then on. Alternatively, radical technologies will be needed to sequester carbon dioxide or extract it from the atmosphere, the researchers including Australian Cameron Hepburn wrote in a paper published in Applied Energy journal.
The window on curbing climate change is more narrow than many realise, a new study argues.
The window on curbing climate change is more narrow than many realise, a new study argues. Photo: Pat Scala

"For policymakers who think of climate change as a long-term future issue, this should be a wake-up call," the authors said in a statement. "Whether we succeed or fail in containing warming to 2 degrees is being determined by actions we are taking right now."
The papers come in a week when environmental groups warned as many as 1500 coal-fired power plants are being planned or being built worldwide, scientists found coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef to be worse than first thought, and Antarctic ice sheets were declared to be melting faster than expected.
Electricity generation accounts for about one quarter of man-made greenhouse gas emissions and about one third of Australia's total. The researchers assumed other emission sources, such as transport and agriculture, would track towards a 2-degree warming limit, an assumption "which may well be optimistic", the paper notes.
Coal conundrum: shut down power plants early, but will emissions end up being higher?
Coal conundrum: shut down power plants early, but will emissions end up being higher? Photo: Paul Jones

Australia was one of almost 200 nations to sign up to limiting warming to a 1.5-2 degree range at the Paris climate summit late last year.
The lower end of that target has been well exceeded, the researchers argue: "Meeting a 1.5-degree target without [carbon capture and storage] or asset stranding would have required all additions to the electricity sector were zero carbon from 2006 onwards, at the latest".
Malte Meinshausen, director of Melbourne University's Climate & Energy College, said the research confirmed work by the International Energy Agency and others "that we now have enough fossil fuel infrastructure globally in place to emit a detrimental amount of carbon".
The Moree solar farm in NSW built by Fotowatio Renewable Ventures of Spain with Origin Energy taking its output from April 1.
The Moree solar farm in NSW built by Fotowatio Renewable Ventures of Spain with Origin Energy taking its output from April 1. Photo: Supplied
"With the correct market signals in place - such as a price on carbon emissions - it will be more economical even for the utilities to abandon fossil fuel [plants] and switch to renewable investments instead," Associate Professor Meinshausen said. "If the time for halting investments into new fossil fuel infrastructure is 2017 for the world, that time has been 10 years ago for Australia - the highest per-capita emitter in the developed world."
As it happens, the combination of Australia's flat or declining demand for grid-supplied electricity and the need to meet the mandated 2020 Renewable Energy Target (RET) means there is little likelihood of new coal or gas-fired power plants being built in this country for at least the next decade, said Dylan McConnell, a research fellow at Melbourne University's Melbourne Energy Institute.
While there are several proposed gas projects and one black coal project in NSW at AGL's Bayswater site, renewable energy ventures are likely to meet any near-term need for additional large-scale capacity, Mr McConnell said.
Some 14,000 megawatts (MW) of wind or solar plants are seeking approval, a tally that is "certainly much more than needed for the RET", he said. "The cost curve for fossil fuel [plants] is going in the other direction."
This week, Origin Energy  signed up for its first power purchase agreement for large-scale solar, taking output from a 56 MW solar farm in Moree in northern NSW.
"Ten years ago, 15 years ago the prospectors were in Queensland looking for [coal seam gas] resources," Grant King, Origin's chief executive, said last year. "I would think the next great round of investment in Queensland will be utility scale solar."
Origin is among the prospectors, applying to the Australian Renewable Energy Agency for funding to support a 106 MW solar farm of its own to be built on the Darling Downs next to its existing gas-fired plant.

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01/04/2016

US, China Seek To Prod Nations By Signing Climate Accord This Month

Fairfax - Jennifer A. Dlouhy | Joe Ryan (Bloomberg)


China's president Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama at the White House in Washington, DC in September last year. Photo: Andrew Harrer

Both the US and China will formally sign a landmark multinational climate accord on April 22, the very first day they can, paving the way for early enforcement of the deal to slash greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.
The move, announced on Thursday in a joint statement from US President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, seeks to preserve momentum from the agreement, which 195 countries agreed to in principle during a summit in Paris last December. For the agreement to take effect, it must be signed by at least 55 countries accounting for 55 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions linked to climate change. Combined, the US and China emit 40 per cent of the world's emissions, so their early signatures put the deal more than two-thirds of the way toward its activation threshold. The move is seen nudging other countries to follow suit. "Our hope is that as that process proceeds, you will see growing momentum toward having this agreement enter into force early and swiftly,"White House senior adviser Brian Deese said. "That will help build the critical momentum that we all saw coming out of Paris around sending a strong durable market signal to the global economy that we're moving in the direction of low-carbon solutions."

Paris goals
The Paris deal lays out goals to curb temperature increases by limiting the carbon dioxide emissions produced when fossil fuels are burned. It also would establish ways to measure and verify emissions, with pledged reductions expected to ratchet upward over decades.
In the joint statement issued Thursday, the US and China also pledged to prioritise the development of a low-carbon economy and accelerate development of clean energy. And they said they were committed to reaching "successful outcomes" on other climate projects, including international Montreal Protocol negotiations to phase down the use of hydrofluorocarbons, a potent greenhouse gas used in many air conditioners and refrigerators.
The two countries also said they would pursue "a global market-based measure" tackling greenhouse gas emissions from commercial aircraft. The US and 22 other countries agreed to standards aimed at throttling aviation emissions in February.

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Asian Countries Could Experience Widespread Water Shortages by 2050

Time - Justin Worland

“It’s not just a climate change issue”

Jong-Won Heo—Getty Images/Moment RF

The combined effects of climate change, population growth and changing socio-economic conditions could drive widespread water shortages across Asia by 2050 and threaten the water supplies of more than 1 billion people, according to new research.
The study, published in the journal PLOS ONE, suggests that more than 1 billion people additional people across the continent will have trouble accessing a steady water supply by mid-century.
“It’s not just a climate change issue,” said study author Adam Schlosser, a research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, in a press release. “We simply cannot ignore that economic and population growth in society can have a very strong influence on our demand for resources and how we manage them.”
The factors driving water insecurity vary by location. Industrial growth due to rapid growth has the most effect in China while India is more vulnerable to population growth, according to the study. Climate change could have serious effects on water security throughout the continent.

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