The Conversation - David Titley
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| The guided missile destroyer USS Barry deploys to sea from Naval Station Norfolk ahead of Hurricane Sandy in 2012. U.S. Navy/Flickr |
In this presidential election year we have heard much about some
issues, such as immigration and trade, and less about others. For
example, climate change was discussed for an estimated
82 seconds
in the first presidential debate last week, and for just 37 minutes in
all presidential and vice presidential debates since the year 2000.
Many observers think climate change
deserves more attention.
They might be surprised to learn that U.S. military leaders and defense
planners agree. The armed forces have been studying climate change for
years from a perspective that rarely is mentioned in the news: as a
national security threat. And they agree that it poses serious risks.
I spent 32 years as a meteorologist in the U.S. Navy, where I
initiated and led the Navy's Task Force on Climate Change. Here is how
military planners see this issue: We know that the climate is changing,
we know why it's changing and we understand that change will have large
impacts on our national security. Yet as a nation we still only
begrudgingly take precautions.
The Obama administration recently announced several actions that
create a framework for addressing climate-driven security threats. But
much of the hard work lies ahead – assuming that our next president
understands the risks and chooses to act on them.
Climate-related disruptions
Climate change affects our security in two ways. First, it causes
stresses such as water shortages and crop failures, which can exacerbate
or inflame existing tensions within or between states. These problems
can lead to state failure, uncontrolled migration and ungoverned spaces.
On Sept. 21 the
National Intelligence Council issued its
most recent report
on implications of climate change for U.S. national security. This
document represents the U.S. intelligence community's strategic-level
view. It does not come from the
Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change, politicians of either party or an advocacy group, but from nonpartisan, senior U.S. intelligence professionals.
The NIC report emphasizes that the problem is not simply climate
change, but the interaction of climate with other large-scale
demographic and migration trends; its impacts on food, energy and
health; and the stresses it will place on societies, especially fragile
ones.
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| Aftermath of a bomb attack in 2014 in Jos, Nigeria by the militant group Boko Haram. Analysts have linked Boko Haram's rise to climatic shifts and resource shortages. Diariocritico de Venezuela/Flickr, CC BY |
As examples the report cites diverse events, ranging from mass
protests and violence triggered by water shortages in Mauritania to the
possibility that thawing in the Arctic could threaten Russian oil
pipelines in the region. Other studies have identified climate change as
a contributing factor to events including the
civil war in Syria and the
Arab Spring uprisings.
Second, climate change is putting our military bases and associated
domestic infrastructure in the United States under growing pressure from
rising sea levels, "nuisance flooding," increasingly destructive storm
surges, intense rainfalls and droughts, and indirect impacts from
wildfires. All of these trends make it harder to train our soldiers,
sailors, airmen and marines to deploy and fight the "away" game and to
keep our forces ready to deploy.
These changes are not hypothetical. Consider Hurricane Matthew:
although we cannot directly attribute this storm to climate change,
scientists tell us that as climate change worsens, major hurricanes will
become more severe. As Matthew moves up the Atlantic coast, the armed
forces are evacuating thousands of
service members and
dependents out of its path, and the Navy is
moving ships out to sea. Other units are preparing to
deliver hurricane relief to hard-hit areas.
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| Marines from the 8th Engineering Support Battalion, Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, participate in relief efforts in New York after Hurricane Sandy, November 2012. U.S. Navy/Flickr, CC BY |
Many of us who work in this field have written and talked about risks
like these for years. Along with 24 other retired senior officers,
civilian defense officials from Republican and Democratic
administrations, and well-respected academics, I recently signed a
consensus statement
that calls climate change a strategically significant risk to our
national security and international stability. We called for "a robust
agenda to both prevent and prepare for climate change risks," and warned
that "inaction is not an option."
The "change" part of climate change is critical: The more ability we
have to adapt to and manage changes and the rate of change in our
climate, the greater our chances are to avoid catastrophic chaos and
instability.
Meeting the challenge
Simultaneously with the NIC report on Sept. 21, the White House released a
Presidential Memorandum,
or PM, on climate change and national security. This document formally
states the administration's position that climate change impacts
national security.
Building on past executive orders and policies, it directs senior
climate officials at 20 federal agencies to form a working group on
climate change and national security, cochaired by the president's
national security adviser and science adviser. This working group will
analyze questions such as which countries and regions are most
vulnerable to climate change impacts in the near, medium and long term.
That's high-level attention! In the words of a senior administration
official, the PM "gives permission" for career civil servants and
military professionals to work on this challenge, just as they address
myriad other security challenges daily.
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| Destroyed tanks in front of a mosque in Azaz, Syria, 2012. Climate scientists have identified the 2006-2010 drought in Syria as a factor in the civil uprising that began in 2011. Christiaan Triebert/Flickr, CC BY-NC |
But we need to do much more. I am a member of the
Climate and Security Advisory Group
– a voluntary, nonpartisan group of 43 U.S.-based military, national
security, homeland security, intelligence and foreign policy experts
from a broad range of institutions. We have produced a comprehensive
briefing book
for the next administration that makes detailed recommendations about
how to expand our efforts to address security risks associated with
climate change.
Our top-line recommendation is to "mainstream" this issue by ensuring
that U.S. leaders consider climate change on an equal basis with more
traditional security issues, such as changing demographics, economics,
political dynamics and other indicators of instability – as well as with
low-probability, high-consequence threats like nuclear proliferation.
We also recommend that the next president should designate senior
officials in key departments, the intelligence community, the National
Security Council and within the Executive Office of the President itself
to ensure this intent is carried out.
What's next? As a retired naval officer, I find myself drawing on the words of American naval heroes like
Admiral Chester Nimitz. In 1945, while he was commander in chief of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, Nimitz
wrote
about a devastating storm near the Philippines that had sunk three
ships and seriously damaged more than 20 others, killing and injuring
hundreds of sailors. He concluded by observing that:
"The time for taking all measures for a ship's safety is while still
able to do so. Nothing is more dangerous than for a seaman to be
grudging in taking precautions lest they turn out to have been
unnecessary. Safety at sea for a thousand years has depended on exactly
the opposite philosophy."
The next president will have a choice to make. One option is to
continue down the path that the Obama administration has defined and
develop policies, budgets, plans and programs that flesh out the
institutional framework now in place. Alternatively, he or she can call
climate change a hoax manufactured by foreign governments and ignore the
flashing red lights of increasing risk.
The world's ice caps will not care who is elected or what is said.
They will simply continue to melt, as dictated by laws of physics. But
Americans will care deeply about our policy response. Our nation's
security is at stake.
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