(AU) Climate Change The Biggest Threat To Great Barrier Reef: Ley

Sydney Morning Herald - Tony Moore

Federal Environment Minister Sussan Ley and Queensland's Environment Minister Leeanne Enoch released a statement on Tuesday afternoon acknowledging climate change as the biggest threat to the health of the Great Barrier Reef.
The United Nations scientific body, UNESCO, will in 2020 make a decision on whether or not to list the Queensland's Great Barrier Reef as a world-heritage site that is in danger.

Federal Environment Minister Sussan Ley. Credit: Lukas Coch/AAP

The Great Barrier Reef has been a UNESCO world-heritage listed site since 1981.The two environment ministers - part of the Great Barrier Reef Ministerial Forum - met in Townsville on Tuesday to discuss the progress of policies set over the past five years to protect the Great Barrier Reef.
They will on December 1 release the report that will be provided to UNESCO's world heritage committee, which will ultimately make the ruling on the future listing of the Great Barrier Reef.
Ms Ley said she was confident the policies of both governments would protect the Great Barrier Reef of the impacts of climate change.
"There is clear acceptance of the science and it is also telling us that we are taking important steps to strengthen the Reef’s resilience," Mr Ley said in a statement.
"This year’s reef Outlook Report highlighted the challenges we face but it was also clear about the steps we can and are taking to protect its future and its World Heritage status."
The Great Barrier Reef Management Authority's August 2019 Outlook Report downgraded the future health of the Great Barrier Reef from "poor to very poor".
In September 2019, the Queensland government moved away from voluntary measures by agricultural groups to control sediment run-off into coastal reef areas to a new system where minimum standards for nutrient run-off are set and enforced by the Queensland government.
Ms Enoch said that decision was one of a number which showed governments were taking concerted steps to protect the Great Barrier Reef.
A project to slowly reduce eroded soil flowing down the Burdekin River onto the Great Barrier Reef has also received recognition by Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.
"These regulations, along with other efforts including tree-clearing laws and action on climate change, are all steps that are being taken by the Queensland Government to support the health of the Reef and prevent it from being listed by the World Heritage Committee as in-danger next year," Ms Enoch said.
"The partnerships being developed with traditional owners are driving key recommendations under the Reef 2050 plan, and the work of Indigenous rangers on the land and sea are also proving vital to protect precious ecosystems."
The two levels of government "endorsed" the existing range of policies, despite conservationists arguing for a faster shift from carbon-intensive energy sources and agriculture sources.
Conservation groups argue a faster shift towards renewable energy is needed because the the world's atmospheric temperature has risen by more than one degree centigrade, an issue highlighted by the Federal Government's own Great Barrier Reef Management Authority's in it's 2019 Outlook Report.
Australia is a signatory to international efforts to keep atmospheric warming below two degrees.
"The rapid increase in greenhouse gas emissions has caused an estimated one-degree centigrade increase in global average temperature since pre-industrial times," the report says.
"The rising global temperature is causing an increase in sea temperature, which has a multitude of impacts, including destructive marine heatwaves."
The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority released this blunt statement in July 2019: "Only the strongest and fastest possible actions to decrease global greenhouse gas emissions will reduce the risks and limit the impacts of climate change on the reef. "

Queensland's Great Barrier Reef

No commitment was made by either environment minister to increase the pace of a shift towards renewable energy.
Queensland promises to provide 20 per cent of it energy by 2020 from renewable energy sources and 50 per cent by 2030.
The Australian government has a commitment to provide 23.5 per cent of its energy from renewable energy by 2020.

Links

• Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2019
• Reef 2050 Long-Term Sustainability Plan
• Great Barrier Reef Blueprint for Resilience
• AgForce Backs Calls For Review Of Consensus Science On Great Barrier Reef
• Great Barrier Reef Outlook Now 'Very Poor', Australian Government Review Says
• Great Barrier Reef Authority Urges 'Fastest Possible Action' On Emissions
• Morrison Government Experts Say Australia Must 'Do More' On Climate
• ‘Sadness, Disgust, Anger’: Fear For The Great Barrier Reef Made Climate Change Feel Urgent
• Radical Climate Action 'Critical' To Great Barrier Reef's Survival, Government Body Says
• Legal Protections Urged As Science Gears Up To Aid Great Barrier Reef
• The Great Barrier Reef Is “In For A Rough Ride”

(AU) Global Heating Supercharging Indian Ocean Climate System

The Guardian - Peter Beaumont | Graham Readfearn

Indian Ocean dipole events, linked to bushfires and floods,

are becoming stronger and more frequent, scientists say

Smoke haze blanketing Sydney as bushfires burn in New South Wales, Australia. Photograph: Neil Bennett/AAP

Global heating is “supercharging” an increasingly dangerous climate mechanism in the Indian Ocean that has played a role in disasters this year including bushfires in Australia and floods in Africa.
Scientists and humanitarian officials say this year’s record Indian Ocean dipole, as the phenomenon is known, threatens to reappear more regularly and in a more extreme form as sea surface temperatures rise.
Of most concern are years in which the sea surface off the coast of Africa warms up, provoking increased rains, while temperatures off Australia fall, leading to drier weather.
It is similar to El Niño and La Niña in the Pacific, which cause sharp changes in weather patterns on both sides of the ocean.

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Temperature changes in the Indian Ocean lead
to extreme weather events in Australia and east Africa

Guardian graphic. Source: The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

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Caroline Ummenhofer, a scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts who has been a key figure in efforts to understand the importance of the dipole, said unique factors were at play in the Indian Ocean compared with other tropical regions.
While ocean currents and winds in the Atlantic and Pacific can disperse heating water, the large Asian landmass to the north of the Indian Ocean makes it particularly susceptible to retaining heat. “It’s quite different to the tropical Atlantic and tropical Pacific events. There you have you have steady easterly trade winds. In the Indian Ocean that’s not the case,” Ummenhofer said.
“There is a certain season where you have easterly winds. Otherwise you have seasonally reversing monsoon winds, which makes for very different dynamics.”
Recent research suggests ocean heat has risen dramatically over the past decade, leading to the potential for warming water in the Indian Ocean to affect the Indian monsoon, one of the most important climate patterns in the world.
“There has been research suggesting that Indian Ocean dipole events have become more common with the warming in the last 50 years, with climate models suggesting a tendency for such events to become more frequent and becoming stronger,” Ummenhofer said.
She said warming appeared to be “supercharging” mechanisms already existing in the background. “The Indian Ocean is particularly sensitive to a warming world. It is the canary in the coalmine seeing big changes before others come to other tropical ocean areas.”
Australian climatologists have pointed to this year’s dipole as at least one of the contributing factors in the bushfires. Jonathan Pollock, of Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, said this dipole was “up there as one of the strongest” on record.

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Flooding has affected more than
2.5 million people in eastern Africa since July

Guardian graphic. Source: OCHA

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Gemma Connell, of the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, raised concern over the impact of stronger and more regular Indian Ocean dipole events on Africa.
“What we are seeing from the current record events is large-scale flooding across the region. Entire swathes are under water, affecting 2.5 million people,” she said.
“And putting it in the broader picture of the climate crisis, this flooding is coming on the back of two droughts. What we are seeing, and what we are going to see more of, is more frequent climatic shocks coming. And all that is on top of the violence and conflict that has already displaced many of the people involved.
“In Kenya, for example, the region hardest hit has been around Lake Turkana, where there are already global malnutrition rates above 30% following drought. People are trying to cope with back-to-back shocks and their resilience has been eroded.”
Another concern for Connell and other humanitarian officials is that although climate scientists are racing to try to develop predictive modelling, there is disagreement over whether stronger Indian Ocean dipole events will lead to a wetter climate for Africa or a drier one.
“As non-meteorologists trying to plan ahead, we’re being faced with complex and changing scenarios. We’re just running to keep up. Looking now at southern and eastern Africa, with failed rainy seasons and then flooding, none of it looks normal,” she said.
“The new normal is a severe weather events. Looking at the Indian Ocean dipole’s effects, you have to see this is as a preview of what can be expected in other parts of world. And while I’m not surprised that attention of the world is elsewhere, that is still unforgivable given how many are suffering from a phenomenon the rest of the world helped create.”

Links

• Indian Ocean Dipole
• The Culprit Behind East Australia's Big Dry
• More Than Climate Change Driving Queensland Fires, Explain Climatologists
• ‘We have nothing’: Somalia floods raise spectre of famine
• French citizens' panel to advise on climate crisis strategies
• Swedish mountain loses highest peak title due to global heating
• Climate change making storms like Idai more severe, say experts
• Five Pacific islands lost to rising seas as climate change hits
• Solar power to the people: how the sun can ease Africa's electricity crisis
• Scientists reveal ‘fair system’ for countries to tackle climate change
• Global climate change treaty in sight after Durban breakthrough
• Tuvalu drought could be dry run for dealing with climate change

(AU) Firestorms And Flaming Tornadoes: How Bushfires Create Their Own Ferocious Weather Systems

The Conversation - Rachel Badlan

A firestorm on Mirror Plateaun Yellowstone Park, 1988. Jim Peaco/US National Park Service

As the east coast bushfire crisis unfolds, New South Wales Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Rural Fire Service operational officer Brett Taylor have each warned residents bushfires can create their own weather systems.
This is not just a figure of speech or a general warning about the unpredictability of intense fires. Bushfires genuinely can create their own weather systems: a phenomenon known variously as firestorms, pyroclouds or, in meteorology-speak, pyrocumulonimbus.
The occurrence of firestorms is increasing in Australia; there have been more than 50 in the period 2001-18. During a six-week period earlier this year, 18 confirmed pyrocumulonimbus formed, mainly over the Victorian High Country.

A pyrocumulonimbus cloud generated by a bushfire in Licola,Victoria, on March 2, 2019. Elliot Leventhal, Author provided

It's not clear whether the current bushfires will spawn any firestorms. But with the frequency of extreme fires set to increase due to hotter and drier conditions, it’s worth taking a closer look at how firestorms happen, and what effects they produce.

What is a firestorm?
The term “firestorm” is a contraction of “fire thunderstorm”. In simple terms, they are thunderstorms generated by the heat from a bushfire.
In stark contrast to typical bushfires, which are relatively easy to predict and are driven by the prevailing wind, firestorms tend to form above unusually large and intense fires.
If a fire encompasses a large enough area (called “deep flaming”), the upward movement of hot air can cause the fire to interact with the atmosphere above it, potentially forming a pyrocloud. This consists of smoke and ash in the smoke plume, and water vapour in the cloud above.
If the conditions are not too severe, the fire may produce a cloud called a pyrocumulus, which is simply a cloud that forms over the fire. These are typically benign and do not affect conditions on the ground.
But if the fire is particularly large or intense, or if the atmosphere above it is unstable, this process can give birth to a pyrocumulonimbus – and that is an entirely more malevolent beast.

What effects do firestorms produce?
A pyrocumulonibus cloud is much like a normal thunderstorm that forms on a hot summer’s day. The crucial difference here is that this upward movement is caused by the heat from the fire, rather than simply heat radiating from the ground.
Conventional thunderclouds and pyrocumulonimbus share similar characteristics. Both form an anvil-shaped cloud that extends high into the troposphere (the lower 10-15km of the atmosphere) and may even reach into the stratosphere beyond.

NASA image of pyrocumulonimbus formation in Argentina, January 2018. NASA

The weather underneath these clouds can be fierce. As the cloud forms, the circulating air creates strong winds with dangerous, erratic “downbursts” – vertical blasts of air that hit the ground and scatter in all directions.
In the case of a pyrocumulonimbus, these downbursts have the added effect of bringing dry air down to the surface beneath the fire. The swirling winds can also carry embers over huge distances. Ember attack has been identified as the main cause of property loss in bushfires, and the unpredictable downbursts make it impossible to determine which direction the wind will blow across the ground. The wind direction may suddenly change, catching people off guard.
Firestorms also produce dry lightning, potentially sparking new fires, which may then merge or coalesce into a larger flaming zone.
In rare cases, a firestorm can even morph into a “fire tornado”. This is formed from the rotating winds in the convective column of a pyrocumulonimbus. They are attached to the firestorm and can therefore lift off the ground.
This happened during the infamous January 2003 Canberra bushfires, when a pyrotornado tore a path near Mount Arawang in the suburb of Kambah.


A fire tornado in Kambah, Canberra, 2003 (contains strong language).

Understandably, firestorms are the most dangerous and unpredictable manifestations of a bushfire, and are impossible to suppress or control. As such, it is vital to evacuate these areas early, to avoid sending fire personnel into extremely dangerous areas.
The challenge is to identify the triggers that cause fires to develop into firestorms. Our research at UNSW, in collaboration with fire agencies, has made considerable progress in identifying these factors. They include “eruptive fire behaviour”, where instead of a steady rate of fire spread, once a fire interacts with a slope, the plume may attach to the ground and rapidly accelerate up the hill.
Another process, called “vorticity-driven lateral spread”, has also been recognised as a good indicator of potential fire blow-up. This occurs when a fire spreads laterally along a ridge line instead of following the direction of the wind.
Although further refinement is still needed, this kind of knowledge could greatly improve decision-making processes on when and where to deploy on-ground fire crews, and when to evacuate before the situation turns deadly.

Links

• Firestorms: the bushfire/thunderstorm hybrids we urgently need to understand
• Turn and burn: the strange world of fire tornadoes
• Drought and climate change were the kindling, and now the east coast is ablaze
• Australia could see fewer cyclones, but more heat and fire risk in coming months
• It’s only October, so what’s with all these bushfires? New research explains it
• Climate change is bringing a new world of bushfires

(AU) Sydney's Bushfire Smoke Haze Leaves 60 People Needing Treatment From Paramedics

ABC News


Sydney was wreathed in bushfire smoke. (ABC News)

Key Points Sydneysiders woke to a thick blanket of smoke on Tuesday morning It was from a bushfire at Gospers Mountain, north-west of Sydney The Rural Fire Service is monitoring dozens of blazes around the state

The thick layer of bushfire smoke blanketing Sydney on Tuesday morning has largely moved on, but dozens of Sydneysiders required medical assistance from the haze.
At least 60 people were treated by paramedics for health complications caused by the smoke haze, according to NSW Ambulance.
Superintendent Jordan Emery said some calls for help were severe and required transport to hospital.
"Western Sydney has been particularly heavily affected as a result of the proximity to the bushfire burning just north of Sydney," he said.
Superintendent Emery said that although older people were more vulnerable to respiratory problems, younger people with asthma also required assistance today.
Authorities said while conditions had improved in Sydney's west, further east and around the CBD the air had not completely cleared.
The haze came amid total fire bans in many parts of the state, and forecasts of a heatwave later this week, with temperatures expected to climb past 40 degrees Celsius in some areas.

Sydney CBD blanketed with a smoke haze on Tuesday. (AAP: Joel Carrett)

Emergency Information ABC Mid North Coast Port Macquarie Taree (Taree MF) 756 AM or via live stream ABC Mid North Coast Port Macquarie Kempsey (Smithton MF) 684AM or via live stream ABC New England North West Glen Innes (Glen Innes MF) 819 AM or via live stream ABC North Coast Grafton (Lawrence MF) 738 AM or via live stream ABC Sydney 702 AM or via live stream

The Department of Environment said the smoke pushed air quality beyond "hazardous" levels in Sydney's north-west, and NSW's northern tablelands and north-west slopes.
NSW Health's Director of Environmental Health Doctor Richard Broome said the bad air quality and hot temperatures posed a serious risk.
"If you are somewhere where it's smoky it continues to be really important to avoid outdoor physical activity if you can.
"Especially if you're someone who has a chronic respiratory or heart condition and are more sensitive to smoke."
The smoke spread from the Gospers Mountain fire, which has burnt more than 120,000 hectares north-west of Sydney and remains out of control.
Hot and dry conditions also created challenging conditions for firefighters at Ebor, between Armidale and Coffs Harbour.
There are dozens of fires burning across the state and today's conditions had the Rural Fire Service (RFS) on high alert.
There are 1,400 firefighters working to curb the spread of those fires, but RFS Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said there was "the potential for real challenges".

Smoke haze blanketing the Parramatta River near Rhodes. (AAP: Danny Casey)

"We've got not only these high temperatures, the mid to high 30s, the dry atmosphere, but we've got this real mix of converging winds today," he said.
A northerly wind will make its way down the coast and inland, before swinging around to the south-west and strengthening, and later a blustery southerly will travel up the coast.

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How to cope with the smoke

Just  because you don't live in the bush doesn't mean you're immune to the health effects of bushfires. Here's how to manage the risks.

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Keep windows and doors shut
The air quality was worst in western Sydney, around Richmond and Rouse Hill, where air pollution is around two to three times the national standard.
Dr Broome said the risks from the smoke were minor for most people, with sore eyes and a sore throat the most common symptoms.
However, people who have pre-existing conditions like asthma or emphysema may be at slightly higher risk of developing problems.
"[For those people] it's actually better to stay indoors, keeping your windows and doors shut," he said.
But with no end in sight for the fires, which kicked off earlier than normal this year, Dr Broome advised people to adapt.
"People just need to build it into their routine a little bit for the next period of time," he said.
Dr Broome also said it could be smoky again tomorrow, with that pattern continuing until the end of the week.
"It's also going to be very hot, especially in Western Sydney and further north in New South Wales. We're expecting heatwave conditions, mostly from Wednesday onwards," he said.

The smoke came from a bushfire in Gospers Mountain, north-west of Sydney. (ABC News: Antonette Collins)

Many Sydneysiders struggled in this morning's smoky conditions.
"My eyes are stinging, my daughter's coughing her guts out," said one woman at Milsons Point.
Another said: "It's disgusting. I was woken up about two o'clock this morning and it was terrible."
"I'm finding it difficult to breathe and I don't have any health issues."

Some people exercising outdoors were unfazed by the health warnings. (ABC News: Antonette Collins)

Links

• Get the latest RFS advice here
• Scientists say the NSW mega fires are linked to climate change. Here's how
• Doctors 'Obliged To Speak On Climate Risk' As Smoke Blankets Sydney
• It's hard to breathe': Bushfires cause choking air pollution in south-east Queensland
• Nearly 500 NSW homes lost to bushfires as crews scramble to build containment lines
• Smoke chokes Sydney as more than 50 people treated for breathing-related incidents
• Air quality and pollution city ranking
• Sydney's bushfire smoke haze leaves 60 people needing treatment from paramedics

(AU) Doctors 'Obliged To Speak On Climate Risk' As Smoke Blankets Sydney

SBS News

High temperatures mixed with changeable winds will likely spread flames in different directions and pose challenges for tired NSW firefighters.

The Sydney Business District seen through smoke haze in Sydney, Tuesday, 19 November, 2019. Source: AAP

Doctors have a responsibility to speak out about the dire health impacts of climate change, an expert says, as bushfires burning across NSW create hazardous air pollution in Sydney.
Sydney woke to a thick blanket of smoke as NSW residents are urged to "stay vigilant" amid severe fire dangers and a hot, windy weather forecast.
Parts of the city reached unhealthy levels of air pollution due to smoke from the fires on Tuesday, with areas in north-west Sydney matching the level of air pollution in New Dehli.
Most of NSW's east coast is under severe or very high fire danger ratings as almost 50 blazes burn across the state, with more than half of those uncontained.

Darren Irwin from Muogamarra brigade posted a message this morning on a local community Facebook page which sums up the smoke nicely. Thanks Darren for the artwork!

A "watch and act" alert was on Tuesday morning issued for an 11,000-hectare blaze at Guyra Road in Ebor, east of Armidale. Activity on the fire's southern edge has increased but the blaze remains under control.
"It's fair to say all of these fires have got the potential to present real challenges today," Rural Fire Service NSW Chief Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons said on Tuesday.

The smoke filled sky of Sydney. Good luck to the fire fighters pic.twitter.com/j1QJ0AG1Xc

— Rob D'Elsini (@BobbieDownunder) November 18, 2019

#Sydney is also known as the 'big smoke' and is living up to the nickname today. #Bushfire smoke will slowly ease during the day, increasing tonight. A Poor air quality alert is current. Latest air quality: https://t.co/WnjvEYhOiq Latest weather forecast: https://t.co/swGZ6BSLY0 pic.twitter.com/6Ba4IgZRIH

— Bureau of Meteorology, New South Wales (@BOM_NSW) November 18, 2019

But Public health physician Dr Kate Charlesworth said the medical profession has an obligation to discuss the link between climate change and poor health.
"From a health perspective, refusing to talk about these bushfires is like refusing to talk about smoking and lung cancer," she told AAP.
"There's a proud history of health professionals standing up on issues of importance - think of asbestos and tobacco control - that is our role."
Dr Charlesworth says doctors are increasingly seeing the health impacts of climate change on patients and speaking up is "part of our duty of care".
The Doctors for the Environment Australia members said poor air quality caused by bushfire smoke puts vulnerable groups at risk, including people with pre-existing heart and lung disease as well as the elderly, babies and young children.

Dr Kate Charlesworth. GREENPEACE

"The key thing is people need to keep their medication at hand - they need to stay indoors, avoid exercise, and see their doctor if they feel it's necessary," Dr Charlesworth said.
The central Sydney air quality rating is poor and people with asthma or other breathing issues are advised to stay indoors, avoid outdoor exercise and seek medical advice as needed. Visibility is also extremely low.
In Sydney's northwest, air quality has been deemed hazardous, with Rouse Hill and Prospect the worst affected areas.
Following weeks of difficult bushfire conditions and last week's 'catastrophic" warnings, Mr Fitzsimmons said it was crucial people didn't take anything for granted.
"The last thing we want is lethargy or complacency or fatigue to set in when it comes to monitoring these conditions," he said.
Six lives and 530 homes have been lost since the NSW bushfire season hit some weeks ago, with more than 420 homes destroyed in the past fortnight alone.

It's quite smoky in Sydney today. Had to shut all the windows. #Sydney #smoke pic.twitter.com/3Zx7fR1Tr3

— Ali R. Moeinian (@alremo__) November 18, 2019

Parts of the state under severe fire danger on Tuesday are Greater Sydney, Greater Hunter, Illawarra-Shoalhaven, Southern Ranges and Central Ranges fire regions.
These regions, along with the Northern Slopes and North Western regions, are also under a total fire ban.
Much of the rest of eastern NSW is under very high fire danger.

Wildlife that survived the bushfire in Wollemi National Park near Sydney graze for food, Sunday, November 17, 2019. AAP

Some 1.6 million hectares of land have been lost so far - more than the entire 1993/1994 bushfire season.
Emergency Services Minister David Elliott on Monday said the biggest risk this week would be firefighters becoming fatigued.
A DC10 air tanker has been drafted in from North America to help drop up to 38,000 litres of water and retardant on blazes and efforts will be bolstered by help from New Zealand firefighters, Mr Elliott said.

Links

• Scientists say the NSW mega fires are linked to climate change. Here's how
• It's hard to breathe': Bushfires cause choking air pollution in south-east Queensland
• Nearly 500 NSW homes lost to bushfires as crews scramble to build containment lines
• Smoke chokes Sydney as more than 50 people treated for breathing-related incidents
• Air quality and pollution city ranking
• Sydney's bushfire smoke haze leaves 60 people needing treatment from paramedics
• Get the latest RFS advice here

(AU) Climate Change And The Economy Are Linked — It's Time The Morrison Government Accepts That

ABC News - Ian Verrender

The PM can see fires burning, he and others may need to act. (AAP: Lukas Coch)

Time is a precious commodity. And it is rapidly running out for the Federal Government on two key fronts.
With fires raging across a parched eastern Australia, exacting an intolerable toll on life and property even before the onset of summer, the Government is facing a growing backlash against its long-held belief that our energy should be generated by antiquated, coal-fired steam engines that pollute the atmosphere and accelerate the onset of global warming.
Given the prospect of another scorching summer, pressure is likely to build for a coherent, science-based climate and energy policy given the devastating impact climate change is having on the nation and the economy.
It's now clear that it is not just rising sea levels that pose challenges for Australia as rural output declines and the economy takes a direct hit — not from drowning, but burning.

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The three factors demand
Morrison rethink climate approach

Scott Morrison doesn't see climate change as a central issue for the Government, but when the nation's top fire chiefs call him out he should listen, writes Michelle Grattan.

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Equally contentious is Canberra's rigid determination to deliver a budget surplus even as the economy weakens, which runs the risk of transforming a prolonged downturn into something quite ugly.
It's a stance that has put it at loggerheads with an increasingly desperate Reserve Bank now being forced to canvas an array of unpalatable policy options in an effort to stave off recession.
At the May federal election, financials trumped the environment, once again validating the advice to Bill Clinton in his campaign against George Bush: it's the economy, stupid.
Both issues, however, have begun to intersect and being behind on both fronts at the next election would be political suicide.

Rate cuts not enough to boost growth
There's little doubt interest rates will be cut to 0.5 per cent by February and that, in the absence of direct government stimulus, rates will be lower than otherwise necessary and for a much longer period. Every economic indicator is weakening.
Inflation has been below stall-speed for almost four years. Growth is sputtering, at its slowest since the financial crisis a decade ago. Wages growth has stagnated to near all-time lows. Retail spending is in reverse. Household debt, meanwhile, remains among the highest in the world.
The one area of relative strength in recent years — employment — also has begun to deteriorate. For the first time in three years, figures released last week showed jobs were lost in October.
While monthly employment numbers are notoriously volatile, all the signals were discouraging. The number of people out of work rose by 17,000 and fewer people were looking for work.
That's despite three interest rate cuts since June to an unprecedented 0.75 per cent and tax cuts that were supposed to jolt the economy out of its funk.
Cutting interest rates — the only real tool the Reserve Bank has — is supposed to encourage households and businesses to borrow and spend, thereby lifting demand, boosting profits and economic growth.
That's not happening, and you don't need to be an economist to understand why. Australian households are hocked to the eyeballs, coming in near the world's most indebted at around 200 per cent of income.
With no wages growth, there is very little desire to take on even more debt, no matter how low rates go.
Rather than borrow more, it's now clear Australians are using the recent cuts to reduce debt. Just 7 per cent of ANZ customers have lowered their mortgage repayments.
The Commonwealth Bank has seen deposits grow 10 per cent, mostly mortgage offset accounts.
That's no bad thing in itself. But it illustrates a key phenomenon that John Maynard Keynes noted. When things look like turning ugly, consumers pull in their horns and spend less. That makes a downturn even worse.

Drought to hit export earnings
The drought of 2002 was among the worst on record. It was followed by one equally as severe in 2006. Back then, the Reserve Bank described weather patterns at the start of this millennium as "exceptional by historical standards".
This drought is just as severe and intensifying.
Where once we had droughts of this magnitude every 40 years (Federation, early 1940s, early 1980s), they are now increasing in frequency and duration.
As this Bureau of Meteorology chart below shows, a substantial portion of the continent has recorded the lowest rainfall on record with a huge proportion either below or very much below average.
The tiny patches of blue show where rainfall has been above average.

The map paints a dire picture of Australia's rainfall. (Supplied: BOM)

The extreme rainfall shortages have been accompanied by a steady increase in temperature which is drying out the sub-soil and increasing evaporation rates of surface water.
This adds to the difficulty and length of time farmers face trying to recover and raises questions about our longer term ability to maintain food and fibre exports.
Farm output is likely to be around 8 per cent down on last year's levels, farm profits are off 20 per cent and rural exports are falling.
That will subtract from national economic growth this year at a time when mineral prices are in decline. Iron ore prices are almost 15 per cent below their peak earlier this year.
And that spells pain.

Big business and climate action
Mike Henry was anointed BHP's new chief last week, immediately seizing the opportunity to declare the company — one of the nation's biggest coal miners — was committed to reducing emissions.
A decade ago, then BHP head Marius Kloppers agitated, successfully for a while, for the introduction of a carbon price.
That's put the company on a collision course with various other members of the Minerals Council and the Business Council of Australia.
Insurers, power generators, steel producers and a host of major Australian corporations have embraced the idea that climate change is real, that it is a long term threat to their business and that immediate action needs to be taken. Globally, companies like Shell and BP, major hydrocarbon producers, are committed to a renewable energy future.
For 20 years, however, there has been no consensus in Canberra, no coherent climate policy and repeated failures on energy policy with a continued push from some quarters to produce electricity from new coal burning steam engines.
Australia's carbon emissions reached a new record this year, partly because of a spike in gas exports.
It is debatable that even a shift to a completely renewable energy economy would have halted the devastating drought and fires spreading across the nation. But if we are to become one of the worst affected nations from climate change, perhaps it's time to take a leading role in affecting change.
It just might be good for business.

Links

• If a catastrophe can't pause the culture war, we really are in a lot of trouble
• Gentle turning point or a turn for the worse? RBA mulls over jobs disappointment
• Figures show Australia's carbon emissions continue to rise despite quarterly drop
• Jobs lost, unemployment up and fewer people look for work; what else could go wrong?

(AU) Australia's Bushfire Politics: The Parties Prevaricate While The Country Burns

The Guardian - Amy Remeikis

Summer was yet to begin and the bush was on fire. But the last thing on the government’s mind was climate change

‘Those who linked the bushfires to climate change were “raving inner-city lunatics”, according to the deputy PM.’ Photograph: Jessica Hromas/The Guardian

Even for modern Australian political discourse, it jarred.

Michael McCormack, deputy prime minister and representative of regional and rural electorates, began the week by “calling out” those “raving inner-city lunatics” who dared to link climate change with Australia’s worsening bushfire season.
“We’ve had fires in Australia since time began, and what people need now is a little bit of sympathy, understanding and real assistance – they need help, they need shelter,” McCormack told the national broadcaster.
“They don’t need the ravings of some pure, enlightened and woke capital city greenies at this time, when they’re trying to save their homes, when in fact they’re going out in many cases saving other peoples’ homes and leaving their own homes at risk.”
The comments were made early Monday morning as the nation woke to learn it was facing a “catastrophic” fire emergency along much of the east coast, with worse conditions to come.

Emotions were already high. Three people – Julie Fletcher, George Nole and Vivian Chaplain – had died in the 48 hours prior, as a firestorm swept across their northern New South Wales properties.
Australia has always equated the start of summer with bushfire season. But every year it seems to get earlier. It began in September, the first month of spring, for Queensland, when fire crews battled to save life and property in areas which had stood untouched by bushfires for decades.
Then, rainforest burned. Just over four weeks later and rural firefighter volunteers and emergency service personnel got the call again, with fires stretching from the mid-north coast of NSW to the Queensland border. Summer was yet to begin, and Australia was already on fire.
McCormack’s comments followed criticism of a prime ministerial tweet offering “thoughts and prayers” as the bushfire crisis took hold.

Our thoughts and prayers are with those who have been so directly and horribly impacted by these fires. https://t.co/XvgsLv4eht

— Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) November 9, 2019

Scott Morrison, who less than three years ago smuggled a piece of coal into parliament as a question time prop, imploring “this is coal – don’t be afraid, don’t be scared” at the opposition, and now leads a government threatening to crack down on environmental activism against the resource sector, was condemned by Greens MPs for inaction on climate change.

I’m deeply saddened by the loss of life. Hearts go out to all affected & to brave firefighters.

But words & concern are not enough.

The PM does not have the climate emergency under control.

Unless we lead a global effort to quit coal & cut pollution, more lives will be lost.

— Adam Bandt (@AdamBandt) November 9, 2019

It was in that context that McCormack, in the face of disgruntled rumblings within his own party room, where a former leader who maintains electoral popularity and media cut-through still sits, turned his outrage meter to 11, sparking Australia’s week of stupid in the process.
From the ABC studios in Sydney, the interview spread as quickly as smoke. From Ballarat in the south-east to South Australia’s border towns, Townsville in the north, Perth in the west and everywhere in between, McCormack’s “raving inner-city lunatics” comments overshadowed almost everything but the fire coverage itself.
It set the tone for the week in political discourse. Wanting to talk about climate change as a cause of the increasingly unpredicted and unprecedented bushfires marked you as a “leftie”. Those on the right pointed to “Green party” policies as having stymied hazard reduction efforts and other fire preparations.
Neither was true. But McCormack’s comments took hold, fuelling debate about whether or not Australia was allowed to have a debate on climate change as more than 100 fires scarred the landscape and capital cities were choked by smoky haze.
More than 2,000 news articles, opinion pieces, radio slots and TV segments were taken up by the comments. The prime minister and his opposition counterpart shared a “not today” unity ticket whenever climate change was raised, while authorities, past and current, stressed all preparations had been made within a shortening window of time, exacerbated by the record drought, as they tried to inject some facts into the debate.
McCormack’s comments were still ringing around the country as the man who used to hold his position, as deputy prime minister and leader of the National party, attempted to interject his own take into the debate. Barnaby Joyce didn’t want to attack the Greens, he told Sky News, because two of the people who died, had “most likely” voted for the party.
Joyce had raised his view of the deceased’s voting preference apropos of nothing.
He’d been asked about firefighting resources, but the man once described as Australia’s “best retail politician” strayed into voting beliefs in a garbled bid to explain sections of his northern NSW electorate.
“I acknowledge that the two people who died were most likely people who voted for the Green party, so I am not going to start attacking them,” he told Sky News, in comments that flashed around the nation.
“That’s the last thing I want to do. What I wanted to concentrate on is the policies that we can [use to] mitigate these tragedies happening again in the future.”
He agreed climate change was an issue but maintained the solution to Australia’s coming bushfire woes was to get back to hazard reduction burning, claiming fire authorities could do it in “the winter” and that the process “has been confounded by excessive bureaucracy”.
“And I think that the bureaucracy is driven by, let’s call it by conservation principle, by people who do not live in the forest, they do not live near the area.”
Again, fire authorities pushed back, calling out the claim as a furphy, and maintaining fire season preparation, including hazard reduction burns, had been done, but the old ways of preparing Australia’s bush no longer addressed the rapidly coming new normal.
But more than 1,000 media pieces later, Joyce’s words had taken hold. The following day, they were echoed by a fellow backbencher, this time from the Liberal party benches, with Craig Kelly taking one line from a scientific paper which found the amount of land burned by wildfires had decreased globally by 24% in the past two decades, and using it to explain to Sky News why Australia’s early bushfire season, already rated catastrophic, was not overly unusual.
But he neglected to mention the research pointing to human changes in the landscape, where environments had been altered for agriculture, as the leading explanation for the decrease. Instead, Kelly said, someone needed to tackle the Greens’ mentality that had led to a reduction in hazard reduction burns.
Again, apolitical fire experts, who had been responsible for preparing entire Australian states for bushfire seasons, dismissed the claims as false. Misleading. A furphy. A lie. But with talkback radio hosts and TV talking heads “asking the question” of Australia’s political armchair expert class, the narrative stranglehold remained.
On Tuesday, the same day Joyce was linking voting preferences with those who had died, the Greens senator Jordon Steele-John accused the major parties of being “no better than a bunch of arsonists” for supporting coal-fired power stations.
“How dare any of you suggest that in this moment at this time it is appropriate to be prosecuting a piece of legislation with the aim of propping up coal,” he announced to the Senate chamber.
“You are no better than a bunch of arsonists – borderline arsonists – and you should be ashamed.”
The condemnation was swift. But again, the comments had taken hold.
On Friday, after a week of back and forth about who was allowed to speak on what issues, and when, and a fourth death was announced, the National Parks Association of NSW issued a statement calling for the “all-too familiar claims after each fire disaster” – the lack of prescribed burning – to stop.
“[It’s] not only unhelpful, it’s dangerous and takes away from the importance of developing new ways to deal with the increased threat fire is having on our communities.”
What was needed, the group said, was pushing emotion to the side, and listening to the experts.
“Focusing purely on hazard reduction, and in one tenure at that, is a recipe for future disaster.”
At the same time, mayors of fire-stricken communities, representing a wide swathe of the political divide, came together to plead for the government to “acknowledge the link between climate change and bushfire,” and to provide more funding and leadership as Australia was pushed into a new reality: anticipating the previously unprecedented.
But from the major parties and their leadership, there was nothing, as the “not today” bipartisan narrative held.
With authorities warning the latest threat is not over, and to brace for a potentially catastrophic summer, it will be months before the smoke clears.

Links

• Dear Michael McCormack: the only 'raving lunatics' are those not worrying about climate change
• Factcheck: Is there really a green conspiracy to stop bushfire hazard reduction?
• As he rails against activism, Scott Morrison is turning a bit sinister, a bit threatening
• Governments have ignored the warnings of fire chiefs on bushfires. There is no more time to waste
• (AU) Coalition Inaction On Climate Change And Health Is Risking Australian Lives, Global Report Finds
• (AU) Former Australian Fire Chiefs Say Coalition Ignored Their Advice Because Of Climate Change Politics
• (AU) Australia Bushfires Renew Anger Over Climate Change
• (AU) Australia's Climate Response Among The Worst In The G20, Report Finds
• Coalition Quietly Appoints Expert Panel To Salvage Emissions Policy
• Business Lobby Groups Accused Of 'Undermining' Climate Change Policy
• Q&A: Short-Term 'Tribal' Politics Is Failing On Climate Action, John Hewson Says